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Reasons for optimism for next three years...and more


Crash2303
It depends on what you're looking for though JB. I think it's pretty obvious that Parra has a higher upside and better stuff... Narveson might be more consistent right now, but this is about his ceiling. So if I'm management, I stick with Parra and give him the extra time under Peterson to get more consistant and 'figure it out.'

When you're almost 28, there is no such thing as upside. It's about results. His "stuff" gets crushed. He's allowed 10.5 hits and 4.4 walks per 9 innings in his career. I'll take the 1 less hit and 1 less walk per inning.

 

Parra's got over 400 major league innings to 165 for Narveson. They are less than a year apart in age. A case could be made that Narveson is still adjusting to facing major league hitters. His career WHIP of 1.419 is pretty close to major league average. Parra's career 1.658 is not.

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Is anybody else here not yet sold on Cain? His .318/.404/.434/.838 OPS is solid, but it's been fueled by a .394 BABIP. If we're generous and say he is the type of player that can maintain a .350 BABIP, and adjust his line for this, his line turns into something like .284/.375/.400/.775. His MLE this season is .267/.336/.347/.683.

 

I'm as sick of Carlos Gomez as anybody, but I think we really need to temper our expectations for Cain. If it were up to me, I would leave him in AAA for at least the rest of this season, and depending on his success and Gomez's failure determine whether he should make the team out of opening day or come up in the middle of the season.

 

Right now, I'd peg him for something like a .275/.345/.375/.720 line next year, which is solid, but certainly not top of the order material. I really like Cain, but I need to see him do more in the minors before I'm comfortable penciling him in as a top of the order hitter.

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Cain is almost as old as Gomez and Carlos outproduced him in the minors. Lo may be a late bloomer, but I'd still take Carlos' future if I has to choose.
Cain has a .781 career OPS. Gomez' minor league OPS is .737. Cain battled injuries in 2009 and wasn't much good, but in every other season and at every level he has outhit Gomez.
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I'm a bit late into the thread, but want to echo the thoughts on NOT spending money for 2011 and focus on 2012. With that in mind, I'd like to see 2011 used in part to see if Cain or Gomez can "win" the CF job, or if a 2012 FA will need to be added (like the Cameron years).

 

That would also give us one more year of Casey @ 3rd and (hopefully) Lawrie can have that gig for 2012.

 

Now, is it worth another portion of 2011 to give Manny another rotation shot, or is he just bull-pen bound and be done with it?

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It really comes down to the pitching. Gallardo, Good pitcher, Wolf is a decent enough top 3 so if we can get a good pitcher to slot in as the #2 I'm all for playing for 2011. If it doesn't work out then I'd look towards 2012 instead of spending on 2011.
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