Reasons for optimism for next three years...and more

[Crash2303]

Assuming Weeks gets signed to an extension, which seems very likely at this time. We are going to continue to have a strong core of players together for years to come. Here's my projected line-up for next year and beyond [brackets are through when they become FAs, to the best of my knowledge]:

STARTERS

CF- Lorenzo Cain [2015]- (If he could keep his OBP around the .370 level- it would open up lots of line-up options)

2B- Rickie Weeks [ext?]

LF- Ryan Braun [2015]

RF- Corey Hart [2013]

1B- Casey McGehee [2014]

3B- Mat Gamel [2014]

C- Jonathan Lucroy [2015]

SS- Alcides Escobar [2014] (would be awesome if bat came around, so he could hit 2 and Weeks could hit 3)

BENCH

OF- Carlos Gomez [2013]

C- George Kottaras [2015]

IF- hopefully resign Piglet

IF- Free agent signing- like a Counsell type

OF- any old scrub

STARTING PITCHERS

#1 Yovani Gallardo [2015]

#2 Young ace pitcher we get for Fielder [multi-year] (Melvin has said, he'll accept nothing less)

#3 Top of the rotation pitcher we sign in FA [multi-year], with approx 20 million saved from Fielder/Hoffman etc

#4 Randy Wolf [2013]

#5 Manny Parra [2013] (think he could be a great bullpen guy, but for lack of better options)

RELIEF

John Axford [2015]

Zach Braddock [2016]

LaTroy Hawkins [2011]

Todd Coffey [2011]

(competition next year)

Kameron Loe

Brandon Kintzler [2017]

Villanueva

Cappy

McLendon [2017]

Stetter

Narveson [2015]

ON THE WINGS - IMPACT PLAYERS

Brett Lawrie

Jeremy Jeffress

Amaury Rivas

[yfinn6]

Which top of the line impact pitcher do you propose Melvin should sign?

[Crash2303]

available free agents:

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/05/potential-free-agents-for-2011.html

good call- not many to pick from. Matt Cain obviously- but i assume the option'll be picked up. Brandon Webb maybe.

Some interesting ones are:

Jeff Francis

Chris Young

Jeremy Bonderman

Ted Lilly

but they're all more mid/bottom guys with some risk. [sigh] lets really hope Fielder breaks out the last two months.

[TooLiveBrew]

#2 Young ace pitcher we get for Fielder [multi-year] (Melvin has said, he'll accept nothing less)

 

I don't think this is going to happen at this point. It didn't happen mid-season this year, when the acquiring team would've been getting Prince for 1.5 seasons instead of just one.

[YoungGeezy]

#2 Young ace pitcher we get for Fielder [multi-year] (Melvin has said, he'll accept nothing less)

 

I don't think this is going to happen at this point. It didn't happen mid-season this year, when the acquiring team would've been getting Prince for 1.5 seasons instead of just one.

 

 

It is a trade off because at the break teams are less likely to give up major league ready guys like a wade davis because they need them for the pennet race. Off-season teams are more willing to part with those type of players.

[dadofandrew]

What Young Geezy said. What contender wants to give up a member of the rotation in July? In the offseason, many teams have 7-8 possible options.

[Diskono]

It is a trade off because at the break teams are less likely to give up major league ready guys like a wade davis because they need them for the pennet race. Off-season teams are more willing to part with those type of players.

The other thing is that, during the offseason, more teams will see themselves as possible contenders. This year, there are a ton of good teams who are 7+ GB, so they probably weren't interested in giving up much right now. But next year, who knows...they may all be thinking "well, 2010 was a disappointment, but if we could get one more bat, we could win the division" this offseason.

[TooLiveBrew]

What contender wants to give up a member of the rotation in July?

 

Melvin didn't need anyone from a team's 25-man roster, no matter if he believed he did or not.

[Thundercat32]

I second what 2livebrew is saying. This team needs more of a Jacob Turner type for Prince then a John Danks type imo. Really you need 2 of an organization's top 3 pitching prospects for Prince, and they can't be misses. Unfortunately, I don't think Melvin is thinking in these terms at all.

 

Crash,

 

I like your lineup it gives me some hope for next year (although you can put me squarely in the camp thats looking for the best outcome over the next 5-7 years and not just next year). I really have some trouble believing a rookie is going to come in as our leadoff hitter and post a .370 OBP. Imo, Cain will be doing good just to prove he's an everyday outfielder and post a respectable OBP.

 

I really disagree with the logic teams are willing to part with quality pitchers in the offseason, but not at the trade deadline. There's not a time of the year team's are willing to give up front of the line rotation pitching. The only exceptions are your Oswalts, Harens, and Cliff Lees of the market. Either they're demanding a trade from a bad team or they're going to walk at the end of the year and the team has to get something for them. Imo, what makes the offseason a more promising time to deal Prince is there are more teams who may feel they can negotiate a deal with him. I don't think very many teams are going to trade for Prince and give up much unless they can sign him to an extension first. Those kind of talks happen more often in the offseason. I could be off on that, in the sense the frequency of those talks during the season and offseason is minimal, but it trends upward in the offseason I would think.

 

I'm growing more and more perpetually fearful Melvin is going to MESS up this Prince deal. And when I say Mess up I'm talking about another four letter word.

[sweepscc]

The offensive lineup you put together is worse on paper than this year's lineup.

Other than being enticed by some pitchers we may get through Fielder I'm not all that optimistic about the team you constructed.

[kilgore37]

I have a feeling we are only going to get 2 first round picks for Prince.

[FVBrewerFan]

I agree there's reason for optimism, I just question your slotting of the #2,#3 starting pitchers. I think the Brewers are more likely to get several high celing guys in the lower minors for Fielder. I'll be pleasantly surprised if they get a guy who is a spectacular #2 who you can slide in the rotation in 2011 or even 2012. More likely, they'll get a couple of guys who project into that role down the road.

 

And the #3 free agent signing doesn't exist. You would essentially get another Wolf type with similar contract, and I think that game is finally over. Like it or not, we need to be patient. A concept I hate, but have grown to accept. If they get the equivalent of Odorizzi, Peralta, Lawrie for Fielder it would be a good day. Mix in those 2 pitchers with the guys they're already developing and you ross your fingers that you'll have a #2,3,4 out of that group in 2-3 years.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, there is basically nothing on the free agent SP market this year that I want Melvin to pursue.

[joepepsi]

Offer arbitration to Bush, sign Capuano to a one year deal, bring back Narveson. Bush will turn down arbitration of course. Narveson and Cappy can compete for the 5th spot. Doug tries to find another starter without investing much.

 

Fielder is traded in an Overbay type deal for a high upside mid minors pitcher, and maybe a serviceable guy that can fill in the rotation for a year or two.

 

A lot went wrong with this year's team. 2011 team won't look as good on paper, especially without Prince. But with a little luck it could compete on the same level as the 2010 team.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I wonder if the Brewers are better off saving some of the payroll from next year for 2012-13. Attendance will be down next year as well. If they have $30mm in payroll off the books and lose $10-15mm in revenues, maybe they bank it for an extra splash the following year. Without knowing all the details, it seems Attanasio has shown a willingness to break even or even lose a little dough in order to win. Maybe having a little in the bank makes it easier to go for it harder when the next batch of young guys come through.

 

It also seems we'll get better quality pitching prospects for Prince if they are 2-3 years away. I get the feeling we won't get the Bucholz or Bumgarner type guys, but may be able to get a couple of someone else's Odorizzi.

[CheezWizHed]

Offer arbitration to Bush.... Bush will turn down arbitration of course.

 

I don't believe Bush is a type A or type B FA, so this would be pointless...

[joepepsi]

Why wouldn't Bush be a type B free agent? 147 major league starts and a 4.67 career ERA. 2.66 career K:BB ratio.

[FVBrewerFan]

I wonder if the Brewers are better off saving some of the payroll from next year for 2012-13. Attendance will be down next year as well. If they have $30mm in payroll off the books and lose $10-15mm in revenues, maybe they bank it for an extra splash the following year. Without knowing all the details, it seems Attanasio has shown a willingness to break even or even lose a little dough in order to win. Maybe having a little in the bank makes it easier to go for it harder when the next batch of young guys come through.

 

It also seems we'll get better quality pitching prospects for Prince if they are 2-3 years away. I get the feeling we won't get the Bucholz or Bumgarner type guys, but may be able to get a couple of someone else's Odorizzi.

I agree with all of that. I don't see them adding any significant salary for 2011, so hopefully that money can be set aside for 2012. And who knows, if they're actually in it at the deadline next year, they can still decide to make a trade and take on salary. Thing is, I think Melvin is finally on the same page. I just don't see him signing some mid-level starter, and really that's all that's out there. And I don't see them signing a position player either, other than reserves.

 

 

 

 

[kramnoj]

Elias rankings don't look at the player's career. Here is a link to the rankings: http://www.mlbtraderumors...ias-rankings-update.html

 

Bush has 45.25 points, the lowest rated B is Harang at 60.67. For comparison, Wolf is still a type A because of last year.

[The Truth]

I'm optimistic, as well, especially about 2012-2014, but my optimism is more in regards to having Gallardo, Amaury Rivas and Jake Odorizzi in the rotation with Jeffress, Braddock and Axford in the bullpen....

 

I'm not (yet) convinced that Weeks will sign an extension, though it'd be cool to see. I'm also not convinced that we will get a great young pitcher for Prince. Maybe/maybe not

[monty57]

I think Prince will either bring back a decent starter who is already into his arby years, or a couple of higher upside guys in the lower minors. I think Melvin will go for the decent starter with 2-3 years left of team control. It's not what I'd do, but I think it's what Melvin will do.

 

As far as free agents, Melvin would likely go with "the plan," which would mean a pitcher who's 6'2" or taller with a plus fastball and breaking pitch... that would mean Javier Vazquez or no one. If teams are down on him because of his "down year" with the Yankees, maybe he'd be attainable. Now that "the plan" is in place, I don't see him going after any more soft tossing veterans in free agency.

 

I think the most likely 2011 rotation will be Yo, Wolf, Parra, {guy from Prince trade}, Rivas/Rogers/Narveson. Not necessarily in that order.

 

My optimism comes in with a belief that Wolf is better than he is showing this year, the defense will be better with someone else at 1B (making the rest of the infield defense better), Braun will bounce back, Cain will be better than many expect, our bullpen is good, young and cheap, and we will finally start seeing the young pitchers both at the MLB level and at AAA giving us insurance against injury/underperformance.

[mletto157]

If Lawrie is ready mid-year; I could see the combination of Lawrie, Gamel, Cain outproducing (or at least equaling) the combination of Fielder, Mcgehee, Gomez. Add in that Escobar should be getting better; Braun should bounce back; Lucroy should be getting better; Hart could regress; Weeks is living up to his potential... Our pitchers should produce better than this year; etc... I think we could easily attain better results next year and the following year than we had this year.

[JohnBriggs12]

The teams with the most excess starting pitching are the Rays and the Rangers. The Rays won't deal youth for a big contract rental. MLBTraderumors quotes Buster Olney as saying they will shop Shields and Garza. Now either of those two would look good in the Brewer rotation next year, but they are going to likely want top prospects, not someone like Fielder with a big arby amount and FA at the end of the year.

 

The Rangers ownership situation is completely up in the air. Who knows what direction they'll go? I could see them making a big push to keep Lee, and using a young arm to acquire a big bat. Whether Derek Holland fits the bill of "young ace" remains to be seen.

 

The problem with trying to trade for pitching is that it generally takes pitching to get pitching. It either takes young pitching to get veteran pitching or vice versa. Fielder probably would fetch a good young bat and a pretty decent young arm, but not a future ace type.

 

I have a hard time seeing Parra in the Brewer plans next year. Whatever deal happens with Fielder, I think they'll try to include him. I honestly think Narveson is more reliable with a WHIP .2 less than Parra, and a better 5th starter option.

[mletto157]

It depends on what you're looking for though JB. I think it's pretty obvious that Parra has a higher upside and better stuff... Narveson might be more consistent right now, but this is about his ceiling. So if I'm management, I stick with Parra and give him the extra time under Peterson to get more consistant and 'figure it out.'

[dlk9s]

I have a hard time seeing Parra in the Brewer plans next year. Whatever deal happens with Fielder, I think they'll try to include him. I honestly think Narveson is more reliable with a WHIP .2 less than Parra, and a better 5th starter option.

They might be able to trade Narveson to an AL team in need of a DH.