Corey Hart gets 3 year, $26.5 million contract extension

[uwisfan]

come on, it was pretty easy to be down on Hart to start the year compared to now

[Principessa21]

Has Hart taken to actually wearing the contacts? I thought he scrapped them in ST.

McCalvy makes it sound like he is wearing them currently in the article he wrote today for mlb.com.

 

I like this deal in that the Brewers get someone in Corey Hart who is likely going to be at least average for his position until this 3 year deal is up. What gets me is the amount of people on this board who are also behind the deal and seem genuinely ecstatic about it. I expected to come to brewerfan today and see people yelling about DM making another bad signing. Go back and search for the 2 Corey Hart threads from March and April and then come back here and help me understand how 382 PAs turned "DFA Corey Hart" into "Hurray Corey Hart". I hope it's the contact lenses and rock bat that are helping Corey swing for the fences because if he starts regressing to his '08 or '09 numbers I fear people will be yelling about the money he is making.

Unfortunately, no matter what team you root for, there will be fans who can only think 'what have you done for me LATELY?!'

[logan82]

I think it is more of a case where fans will be more vocal when a player plays like they thought he would. The people who didn't like Hart were more vocal in the offseason and quieter now. The fans who do like Hart are more vocal now and were quieter in the offseason. I have one foot firmly planted in each camp on this one. I really like Hart but I am not happy to know we are locked into bad corner outfield defense for 3 more years.

[thebruce44]

Unfortunately, no matter what team you root for, there will be fans who can only think 'what have you done for me LATELY?!'

 

Only in this case, he was one of the worst outfielders in baseball for 2 of the last 3 years. Thats probably a slight exaggeration, but you get the point. Fans being upset wasn't exactly knee jerk.

[monty57]

it's really just a two-year extension for $19 mil.

 

Yeah, when you look at it that way, it's a fairly low-risk deal and a good price. And I wanted to trade him for pretty much anything while his value was high.

 

I expect a Weeks deal to follow whenever his agent situation is sorted out (and assuming it doesn't end with Boras), and the Brewers have seemingly put all of their chips into a Fielder deal to acquire the pitching help that they need. It's now absolutely crucial to maximize the return they get for Prince in terms of arms.

Or, you could look at it this way: After the two cheap years in which he performed up to his contract, the Jeff Suppan deal was really just two-years / $24 mil.

 

I agree with you on the Weeks and Fielder points. This deal with Hart does limit our ability to upgrade our future rotations, and makes a Prince deal very important.

 

 

[kramnoj]

If you normalize his HR rate to his career average, he would be batting around .265, OPSing .320, have 16 HRs, be SLGing .485, and OPSing .805.

 

Can you show your math on this, because this doesn't seem right. It seems like you are saying that his extra HR will become outs, and I don't think that would be right. If the idea is that his just enough HR won't be long enough to be HR next year, they could still be singles, doubles, or triples (or, very rarely inside the park HR). I think it's better to just look at ZIP's Rest of Season projection, which is a .276/.335/.500 line. That looks more reasonable to me.

[thebruce44]

kramnoj[/b]]If you normalize his HR rate to his career average, he would be batting around .265, OPSing .320, have 16 HRs, be SLGing .485, and OPSing .805.

 

Can you show your math on this, because this doesn't seem right. It seems like you are saying that his extra HR will become outs, and I don't think that would be right. If the idea is that his just enough HR won't be long enough to be HR next year, they could still be singles, doubles, or triples (or, very rarely inside the park HR). I think it's better to just look at ZIP's Rest of Season projection, which is a .276/.335/.500 line. That looks more reasonable to me.

 

My math was just on a calculator so its gone. I agree with what you are saying so in the rest of my post that you didn't quote I said these were rough estimates. However, fly balls tend to turn into outs at a fairly high rate, so I converted them to outs and rounded in Harts favor figuring it was somewhat of a wash. Go ahead and add a couple points to everything if you like, its just an estimate but his OBP would still be very worrisome.

[Invader3K]

Well, even if he only ends up putting up an OPS a shade above .800, that wouldn't be too shabby.

[joepepsi]

Well, even if he only ends up putting up an OPS a shade above .800, that wouldn't be too shabby.

Agreed. His career OPS is standing at .815 after 2400 plate appearances. It seems reasonable to expect at least the career OPS over the next 3 years, his age 29, 30, and 31 seasons. I'm thinking he'll be a little higher than that the next couple seasons as he's in his peak years, then will begin to drop off some. He should age pretty well through his mid 30's.

 

fwiw, I just don't see that he's this godawful defender. Even if he is below average I think the difference between that an above average RF'er is fairly insignificant. The extremes are where the difference counts.

[TooLiveBrew]

fwiw, I just don't see that he's this godawful defender.

 

I think he's pretty bad in terms of getting reads off the bat & in general tracking flyballs. His speed is a nice asset, which helps him overcome a lack of strong instincts. Strong but relatively inaccurate arm. He's well below average imo, and enough so that I think it cuts into his overall value.

[kramnoj]

However, fly balls tend to turn into outs at a fairly high rate, so I converted them to outs and rounded in Harts favor figuring it was somewhat of a wash.

 

That would be my area of dispute. For the HR that Hart is hitting that would be just enough HR, I would consider them to be more line drives than fly balls.

[Thurston Fluff]

So you missed the part where we were talking about their performance before giving them their contracts and ignoring hindsight then? You originally took issue with someone who was worried about Melvin handing out this contract since it was a similar situation to when Hall's contract was given out. I then provided data to show that up to the point of their contracts being signed Hall was the superior player so I think it is a valid concern.

 

Are you no longer taking issue with this topic?

 

I think we were talking past each other. I took issue with it being the next Bill Hall contract because it was not the same situation as Hall. Hall was never very good as a prospect and only had a two year period where he did produce. He then got a contract and went back to being Bill Hall. Hart was always a good prospect who showed he could play well in the majors and then had a couple below average years. Even then those below average years were not nearly as bad as it was being out to be. Given their histories I tend to think it is far more likely we have seen Hart's worst while Hall was still a question mark when he got his contract. I would compare Hall more to McGehee than Hart. For me McGehee would have to show at least a couple more years of production before I would be comfortable handing him a contract of any significance.

 

He's well below average imo, and enough so that I think it cuts into his overall value.

 

There are some positions I think defense has to be valued higher than others. Corner outfield is one of those spots where offense plays a more significant role than defense. Good defense is a plus but not nearly like it is at short or catcher.

[pogokat]

I'snt it reasonable to assume that hart could very well be a 1b for the duration of this contract? I think he'll return to being a plus defender at 1b...

[logan82]

For me McGehee would have to show at least a couple more years of production before I would be comfortable handing him a contract of any significance.

 

You would be wrong to give McGehee a contract. He will be 32 in his first season of free agency. We should go year to year with him. At no point should we extend him.

 

This deal with Hart does limit our ability to upgrade our future rotations, and makes a Prince deal very important.

 

Giving Fielder a deal would be a very bad idea. I know people think we will have a bunch of cheap players and it wouldn't hamstring our club but I was reading an old thread about Braun last night and people were saying the same thing about the Suppan deal.

[hawing]

Isn't it reasonable to assume that hart could very well be a 1b for the duration of this contract? I think he'll return to being a plus defender at 1b...

You'd think Corey could reach more errant throws to first than Prince can.

[thebruce44]

I think we were talking past each other. I took issue with it being the next Bill Hall contract because it was not the same situation as Hall. Hall was never very good as a prospect and only had a two year period where he did produce. He then got a contract and went back to being Bill Hall. Hart was always a good prospect who showed he could play well in the majors and then had a couple below average years. Even then those below average years were not nearly as bad as it was being out to be.

 

Yea, I think we were arguing two different things. I was suggesting that it is a valid comparison as Hall and Hart had both had 2 years of success at the MLB level, Halls being much better than Harts. Hall had never failed at the MLB level while given playing time at one position while Hart had twice. Both signed contracts at their peaks (I am assuming this is Hart's peak but hope I am wrong). I can see you put a lot more stock into their minor league performances than I do, especially when it came to Hall who I felt was rushed while Hart was given extra time to mature.

 

In the end, I think Hall was actually more deserving of his contract than Hart for the reasons I previously outlined in this post and my previous ones. While I am not going to say this is "the next Bill Hall contract" I wouldn't say that this is a very different situation at all and if someone is worried they have every right to be.

[pogokat]

Corey was a good 1b in the minors and he has good range for the position plus he's 6'5"...he's richie sexson and I think he'd be an above average defender there...

[monkeyman343434]

I just don't understand how people would be happy with giving a league average RF $9 mil/year. That's terrible. That's not what a team like the Brewers should be spending their money on.

[kramnoj]

What specifically don't you understand? Having money to spend and not being able to replace a player doesn't improve the club.

 

I think there's a real possibility that the Brewers will have more money than they can wisely spend the next few years.

[Thurston Fluff]

I can see you put a lot more stock into their minor league performances than I do, especially when it came to Hall who I felt was rushed while Hart was given extra time to mature.

 

They both got to the big leagues at the same age (23). Hall wasn't rushed by choice he was out of options by then so he had to stay. That he wasn't good enough to have made it on his own merit by the same age as Hart did should also tell us something about the variance in ability. I'm not trying to cut on Hall. That he made something of himself at the major league level even though he wasn't really good enough to be there to begin with is a credit to him. I have a great deal of respect for Hall for that. Just don't think he was every as good as Hart even if he did have a couple really good seasons.

 

You would be wrong to give McGehee a contract. He will be 32 in his first season of free agency. We should go year to year with him. At no point should we extend him.

 

Not advocating one. Just saying I wouldn't do one unless he proved himself in a bigger stretch of time than Hart.

[logan82]

Jeff Sackman had a nice summary of the Hart signing over at BCB.

 

Mid-market GMs have more freedom than their small-market counterparts,

but they still must do whatever they can to retain their flexibility.

They don't have enough money to solve every problem by writing a check,

so they must find other ways to build contending teams. By locking up a

pretty good player at the going market rate, Doug Melvin just cost

himself a fair bit of flexibility. And he doesn't have much to show for

it.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't see how it has any impact on flexibility. It's pretty clear the Brewers won't be spending money on FA pitchers. And anything they get back via trade for Fielder will be minor league or minimum salary type players. They will have a ton of money (relatively speaking) moving forward. Hopefully they extend Weeks with a similar deal, and if they do that they really don't have to get any position players in FA either. And then who else would the Brewers even want to pay in the next 2-3 years? They will have Gallardo, Braun, Hart, Weeks (hopefully) and nobody else they would want to keep is close to being a free agent. Oh, and Wolf's contract is done by then as well.

 

Actually, I think the opposite is true. They should have a lower payroll the next 3 years compared to this year, leaving room to "buy" or rent that big piece they'll need if they're in contention. Hey, I understand Hart is a risk. But you hae to take calculated risks in life...and in baseball.

[Thurston Fluff]

He's got a veteran right fielder hitting his prime with two all star appearances to show for it. That will become more important as we lose some of our other veterans. As far as flexibility goes we don't really have that much on the books after this season. He should have taken a look at the finances before making a blanket statement like that.

Next year we have to find a real center fielder and at least one starting pitcher and a first baseman. I think Cain is in the plans at center and Prince gets us the starter and first base can be covered with Gamel or a FA. So for the next two years we will have prearby options at catcher, first, short, third, center, three starters and several relievers. In the last year of Hart's contract several of them will be in the early arby years.

Unless I'm missing something the amount of money needed to keep this team intact over the Hart contract is probably less than we spent this season.

[igor67]

I think there is decent room for some criticism, but the flexibility argument is weak. At some point you have to actually try to build a team, and you can't always build a team out of cheapo mid level guys. Put another way there is a practical limit to the number of trades and FAs you can sign in an offseason. If you look at the pieces and Christina Karl suggestion that the Brewers could still deal one of Hart or Prince depending on the teams preference (short or medium term contract) there's quite a bit of roster flexibility.

[joepepsi]

I think there is decent room for some criticism, but the flexibility argument is weak. At some point you have to actually try to build a team, and you can't always build a team out of cheapo mid level guys.

This is the point he's lost in his article. It's often lost on this site as well. You can't change out every player every year, or once they might be a little more expensive. Arguing that extending Hart is bad for the team assumes his bat can be reasonably and easily replaced for less. Who exactly, is out there that anyone can guarantee the Brewers will acquire or promote who will perform at Hart's career level for the next 3 years?

 

Re-signing Hart gives Melvin the flexibility to work on more pressing issues, such as what to do with Prince and how to improve the pitching staff.