Corey Hart gets 3 year, $26.5 million contract extension

[Baldkin]

I don't think comparing Hart to those with 4+ years of service time is correct. You have to compare him to those with 5+ as that's when the contract kicks in -- the Brewers are only buying out 1 year of arbitration, and Hart's contract per season wouldn't even crack the top 9 (only 9 deals are listed there).

[thebruce44]

Backupcatchers[/b]]

Yet, now everyone is singing Melvin's praises for extending a player that is midway through a breakout season after 1 and 1/2 seasons of terrible baseball.

 

If you ask me, this smells like the Bill Hall contract part deux.

 

Cory's worst OPS for a season is .753 which is one point higher than Ball Hall's career OPS never in his entire career did he approach Bill Hall awfulness. His career OPS is 814...While there is a risk of him regressing to his former self but even if he does it wouldn't be nearly as bad as you're making it out to be.

That only makes sense if you don't take into account position or defense. Hall OPSed .837 and .899 while playing above average defense at SS and CF before signing his contract. His WAR those 2 seasons was 3.7 and 5.0. Hart is one of the worst corner outfielders in baseball and has only OPSd better than Hall's best this season. His best WAR came 3 years ago (4.3) before his offense and defense started to regress sharply. This season he will probably WAR around 3.4 to 3.5. Looking at it objectively and without hindsight, Hall may have actually been the better signing.

 

[Thurston Fluff]

You can't compare a SS to a corner outfielder this way.

 

I'm not. I'm comparing a utility player to a corner outfielder.

[gobrew23]

Meanwhile, we have not just questions marks but actual holes in the #2, #4, and #5 spots in our rotation going into 2011 with no help above single A on the farm...

 

 

 

We have Rivas, Rogers and Peralta in AA. They could be in MLB sometime in 2011 if all goes well.

[homer]

The fact that Keith Law dislikes this deal makes me like it all the more.

[derflotr]

Why does everyone assume that this cements Corey's status as a long-time Brewer? I for one hope he stays around and continues to produce, but now that Corey's financial near-future is set his trade value becomes much clearer. If he stays hot and finishes around 30/100 with this contract instead of one year of a number determined in arbitration he'll net a much better return. I'm hoping he stays and maybe takes over at 1B and Fielder goes for pitching but should they have trouble dealing Prince it isn't like Hart is completely off the trade market. It's a great deal for both parties and keeps a lot of options available in the front office...

[Funketown]

I know I'm late to chime in, but here are my two cents:

 

As a completely objective person, I'm okay with this deal. It should pay Hart roughly what he is worth over his two free agent years. I also don't think he's as bad defensively as his -8.1 UZR this season says (I think he's more of a -5 defender in RF).

 

As a fan, I'm very happy. This makes the 2011-2013 lineup look a lot better, especially if Fielder departs in the off season. Hopefully Corey doesn't make Doug regret this deal.

[mletto157]

If you think outside the box a little... I REALLY like this lineup!

 

1 - Cain

2 - Braun

3 - Gamel

4 - Weeks

5 - Hart

6 - Laurie

7 - Lucroy

8 - Pitcher

9 - Escobar

[Thurston Fluff]

That only makes sense if you don't take into account position or defense. Hall OPSed .837 and .899 while playing above average defense at SS and CF before signing his contract. His WAR those 2 seasons was 3.7 and 5.0. Hart is one of the worst corner outfielders in baseball and has only OPSd better than Hall's best this season. His best WAR came 3 years ago (4.3) before his offense and defense started to regress sharply. This season he will probably WAR around 3.4 to 3.5. Looking at it objectively and without hindsight, Hall may have actually been the better signing.

 

Hall never played above average defense in center field and was nothing special at 3rd. I give him full credit for being more versitile and a great season defensively at short though his overall defense dating back to his minor league days should tell us more about his true defensive value than the season of above average play does.

 

But to give fair comparison, yes, Hall's defense was better and at more premium positions. I think for it to be the next Hall type contract we have to look at how low a guy plays not how high. Hall's lowest OPS for a season was about 150 points below Hart's worst. Was his defense so much better that it made up for 150 points of OPS? If the question is will this be the next Hall contract? I say no. Hall's worst was really bad. Harts was slightly below average. If the worst is .753 I can live with that. If the worst is 606 I can't. Even at a premium defensive position. Unless that defense is other worldly good.

[endaround]

Hall was a very good defensive infielder. He still is (would be much more useful than Counsell).

[NYChez]

If Corey plays his age 28-30 years like a player with a Baseball Reference "Similar Batters through Age 27" rating (and similar hair style), George Foster, then it will be a very good deal for the Brewers.

http://www.baseball-refer...layers/f/fostege01.shtml

[thebruce44]

Backupcatchers[/b]]That only makes sense if you don't take into account position or defense. Hall OPSed .837 and .899 while playing above average defense at SS and CF before signing his contract. His WAR those 2 seasons was 3.7 and 5.0. Hart is one of the worst corner outfielders in baseball and has only OPSd better than Hall's best this season. His best WAR came 3 years ago (4.3) before his offense and defense started to regress sharply. This season he will probably WAR around 3.4 to 3.5. Looking at it objectively and without hindsight, Hall may have actually been the better signing.

 

Hall never played above average defense in center field and was nothing special at 3rd. I give him full credit for being more versitile and a great season defensively at short though his overall defense dating back to his minor league days should tell us more about his true defensive value than the season of above average play does.

 

But to give fair comparison, yes, Hall's defense was better and at more premium positions. I think for it to be the next Hall type contract we have to look at how low a guy plays not how high. Hall's lowest OPS for a season was about 150 points below Hart's worst. Was his defense so much better that it made up for 150 points of OPS? If the question is will this be the next Hall contract? I say no. Hall's worst was really bad. Harts was slightly below average. If the worst is .753 I can live with that. If the worst is 606 I can't. Even at a premium defensive position. Unless that defense is other worldly good.

I disagree with looking at how low a they played before signing their contracts in this situation because Hart's lowest came as a full time featured player while Hall's came during sporatice playing time while he was young and developing at the major league level. Apples to oranges, though it makes Hall look worse and Hart look better if thats what you are after.

 

And as end said, Hall was a pretty good infielder. I really think you are not looking at this objectively.

[Thurston Fluff]

I disagree with looking at how low a they played before signing their contracts in this situation because Hart's lowest came as a full time featured player while Hall's came during sporatice playing time while he was young and developing at the major league level.

 

No it didn't. Hall's was last season not when he was young and developing. Given that he played himself out of the lineup and it's hard to blame sporadic playing time for his demise. He would have had more if he had been good enough to warrant it. Harts happened last season as well. I only took years in which they had significant playing time to make sure I didn't do what you just said I did.

Hall's worst came after the contract not before. He had 334 ab's in 108 games played between Seattle and Milwaukee. Harts worst also happened to be last season and he had 419 ab's in 119 games. If you want go back a year and Hall's 404 ab's with a 689 OPS 128 games played go ahead. Hart's worst came in roughly the same playing time as Hall yet was much better offensively.

 

How to rate defense and it's value in contracts is hard to determine. I don't buy into looking at the season's UZR or any other defensive metric as telling. It takes way more information to do that. I will say I beleive Hall was good not great while Hart is average at best. So, yes, he had some value that way just not that much more. But good defensive players with no offense can be had a lot cheaper than Hall's got paid.

[PeaveyFury]

it's really just a two-year extension for $19 mil.

 

Yeah, when you look at it that way, it's a fairly low-risk deal and a good price. And I wanted to trade him for pretty much anything while his value was high.

 

I expect a Weeks deal to follow whenever his agent situation is sorted out (and assuming it doesn't end with Boras), and the Brewers have seemingly put all of their chips into a Fielder deal to acquire the pitching help that they need. It's now absolutely crucial to maximize the return they get for Prince in terms of arms.

[thebruce44]

I disagree with looking at how low a they played before signing their contracts in this situation because Hart's lowest came as a full time featured player while Hall's came during sporatice playing time while he was young and developing at the major league level.

 

No it didn't. Hall's was last season not when he was young and developing. Given that he played himself out of the lineup and it's hard to blame sporadic playing time for his demise. He would have had more if he had been good enough to warrant it. Harts happened last season as well. I only took years in which they had significant playing time to make sure I didn't do what you just said I did.

Hall's worst came after the contract not before. He had 334 ab's in 108 games played between Seattle and Milwaukee. Harts worst also happened to be last season and he had 419 ab's in 119 games. If you want go back a year and Hall's 404 ab's with a 689 OPS 128 games played go ahead. Hart's worst came in roughly the same playing time as Hall yet was much better offensively.

 

How to rate defense and it's value in contracts is hard to determine. I don't buy into looking at the season's UZR or any other defensive metric as telling. It takes way more information to do that. I will say I beleive Hall was good not great while Hart is average at best. So, yes, he had some value that way just not that much more. But good defensive players with no offense can be had a lot cheaper than Hall's got paid.

So you missed the part where we were talking about their performance before giving them their contracts and ignoring hindsight then? You originally took issue with someone who was worried about Melvin handing out this contract since it was a similar situation to when Hall's contract was given out. I then provided data to show that up to the point of their contracts being signed Hall was the superior player so I think it is a valid concern.

 

Are you no longer taking issue with this topic?

[Funketown]

Hart is OPS'ing 3000 since signing his extension. Naysayers, be silenced! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[logan82]

I put him there because you know as well as I do that the Brewers view him as a leadoff hitter. Oh noes, he's struggled as a rookie! Let's give up on him, he'll never hit ever for the rest of his career and he deserves to be batting 9th.

I've always thought that Escobar could and should be a leadoff hitter. Once he has gotten a full year in the majors under his belt and has fully adjusted, he could be a very productive leadoff hitter.

He is a bad hitter and until he proves otherwise he belongs in the bottom of the lineup. I am not shocked he struggled at all. Just like with Gomez, I don't care what his potential is. I care what he can do now.

[GB12]

Funketown]Hart is OPS'ing 3000 since signing his extension. Naysayers, be silenced! http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

I know you're joking, but seriously this is a very good thing. If Hart went 0-fer in his first game after the extension we would have to listen to all the stupid talk of how we made a big mistake, or if he stopped caring now that he got paid, and all that crap.

[crossface21]

With Harts' performance tonight, he's already performed better than Bill Hall and Jeff Suppan did during their entire contracts.

[igor67]

I thought Hart was on his way to washing out at the start of the year as well, however while I suspect this is probably his career year, I don't think there is a go In trying to assess the legitimacy of a breakout season vs. fluke I look for things like pedigree. Hart had good minor league totals and projections on the power and batting average side. Is it a batting average driven fluke, as others have posted it doesn't seem to be. What is the spike coming in? In this case power and it looks like doubles are turning into HRs, something that tends to stick a little more from one season to the next and power can develop later. Lastly is there a physical explanation, in this case Corey's vision has arguably helped him keep the walks from being more selective and drive the ball more. I'd guess maybe an .840-.850 OPS next year.

[TooLiveBrew]

Lastly is there a physical explanation, in this case Corey's vision has arguably helped him keep the walks from being more selective and drive the ball more. I'd guess maybe an .840-.850 OPS next year.

 

Has Hart taken to actually wearing the contacts? I thought he scrapped them in ST.

[danzig6767]

How to rate defense and it's value in contracts is hard to determine. I don't buy into looking at the season's UZR or any other defensive metric as telling. It takes way more information to do that. I will say I beleive Hall was good not great while Hart is average at best. So, yes, he had some value that way just not that much more. But good defensive players with no offense can be had a lot cheaper than Hall's got paid.

I agree that defensive metrics are still fairly crude in relation to offensive ones, but it's not like when anyone watches Hart in the outfield that the naked eye would make you question his ugly rankings in the defensive metrics. Corey routinely misjudges fly balls and his arm is extremely inaccurate. The frustrating thing for me is as a rookie i thought he showed potential to develop into a quality defensive outfielder. Instead of developing defensively, he immediately plateaued and maybe even regressed defensively. Between him and Braun, our corner OF defense is atrocious.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I'm really surprised by the mostly positive reaction to this deal. In spring training the organization thought so little of him they left him off the all star ballot for a 40 year old OF who had been out of the game for a year. Now he gets an extension.

 

And what has really changed in his performance? According to FANgraphs his walk rate is down while his strikeouts are up. The only reason he's putting up All Star numbers is that his HR rate and shot up. And it appears that rate is not sustainable, as he's a leader in HRs that just cleared the fence.

 

Corey appears to be similar to Jason Werth. Werth put up huge HR numbers last year, but a lot of them just cleared the fence like Hart this year. Werth's HR numbers plunged this year, although his double numbers have gone up, making him nearly as valuable as he was the prior year. I guess we can hope if that happens to Hart if/when his HR numbers come back to earth.

[zzzmanwitz]

In spring training the organization thought so little of him they left him off the all star ballot for a 40 year old OF who had been out of the game for a year.

 

This isn't really true. The all star ballot is determined by the opening day starters. Edmonds got the opening day start, so he made the ballot.

[Schlitz001]

Has Hart taken to actually wearing the contacts? I thought he scrapped them in ST.

McCalvy makes it sound like he is wearing them currently in the article he wrote today for mlb.com.

 

I like this deal in that the Brewers get someone in Corey Hart who is likely going to be at least average for his position until this 3 year deal is up. What gets me is the amount of people on this board who are also behind the deal and seem genuinely ecstatic about it. I expected to come to brewerfan today and see people yelling about DM making another bad signing. Go back and search for the 2 Corey Hart threads from March and April and then come back here and help me understand how 382 PAs turned "DFA Corey Hart" into "Hurray Corey Hart". I hope it's the contact lenses and rock bat that are helping Corey swing for the fences because if he starts regressing to his '08 or '09 numbers I fear people will be yelling about the money he is making.