Brewers pitching development plan (also, curse you Roy Halladay!)

[Team Canada]

Interesting article overall, but here's the juicy part:

Melvin said the Brewers made a very serious offer to the Blue Jays in December for ace right-hander Roy Halladay, who had no-trade rights and preferred a club that spends Spring Training in Florida. The Phillies, his eventual destination, train in Clearwater, near Halladay's home.

"We made as good an offer as anybody. He wouldn't come," Melvin said. "We went out on a limb and offered pretty good players for Roy Halladay. It came down to [the fact] that he had his choice of where he wanted to go. Philly had the advantage on him. So the talent pool that we get to pick from sometimes is smaller than other teams."

 

[bill hAll Star]

As important as Moneyball was, I think this is more revolutionary:

 

The thing that bothers me is he acts as if he has just found the cure for cancer and is proclaiming it to the world. I'm pretty sure 3/4 of this board has been asking for these things for quite some time.

 

Exceptional Research Findings Here

 

Brewers write plan for better pitching success

Club identifies ways to evaluate, develop, acquire starters

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

By Adam McCalvy / MLB.com

 

 

07/30/10 2:17 PM ET

 

 

MILWAUKEE -- Right off the top, Doug Melvin admits that the Brewers

have made mistakes drafting, signing and otherwise acquiring pitchers

during his nearly seven years as general manager. But he rejects --

forcefully -- the notion that the Brewers are alone in those mistakes.

Now, Melvin is on a mission to defend the staffers and scouts who helped

him develop a 30-page plan to get the club back on track.

 

 

Melvin revealed some of the "Milwaukee Brewers Pitching Development

Organizational Plan" to reporters this week. It includes new guidelines

for both amateur and professional scouting, plus a streamlined

player-development process that emphasizes the team's increased focus on

biomechanics.

 

 

The highlights include a checklist of factors the Brewers will begin

using to evaluate starting pitchers. They will ask themselves whether

the player:

 

 

1. Owns "plus" fastball velocity?

 

2. Can throw a quality breaking pitch?

3. Has "solid arm action and delivery"?

4. Is 6-foot-2 or taller?

 

 

If the Brewers are quiet at Saturday's non-waiver Trade Deadline, it

could be because the pitchers being offered don't meet these criteria.

 

 

 

"If you look at all of the better young pitchers in baseball right now,

three-quarters of them have all four of those criteria," assistant

general manager Gord Ash said. "That's why we believe it's important.

Now, there are going to be exceptions."

 

 

The Brewers believe they have a number of pitching prospects who meet

those criteria, such as Jeremy Jeffress, Jake Odorizzi, Wily Peralta,

Mark Rogers and Kyle Heckathorn. But none of those pitchers are above

the Double-A level at this time, and there are no guarantees that any of

them will make it to the Majors.

 

 

Still, the picture is more optimistic than Melvin and Ash believe the

club gets credit for. And Melvin in particular has grown tired of

hearing his club's efforts in this area belittled.

 

 

"I feel I have a responsibility to protect out scouts and our

development people, people who work extremely hard at what they do,"

Melvin said. "We take responsibility if we sign a guy and he doesn't do

well. ... We study this thing until we go nuts on it."

 

 

"The context," Ash added, "is that we're not where we want to be. But it

is an inconsistent process. Everybody has the same issues that we have,

to some extent."

 

 

Searching for solutions

 

 

As part of the study, Melvin had staffers compile detailed information

of how teams acquired their starting pitchers, how player payroll

translates in the standings and where the Brewers missed in past

First-Year Player Drafts.

 

 

Among the findings:

 

 

• The Rays and Giants have more homegrown starters -- four -- than any

other team. The Orioles, Twins, Giants, Rangers and Blue Jays have three

apiece. The Brewers have two: Yovani Gallardo and Manny Parra.

 

 

The Giants have one of the best starting staffs in the game -- including

in-house pitchers Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison

Bumgarner -- and have a knack for moving those pitchers quickly. Cain

(first round, 2002) made 31 starts at 21 years old, Sanchez (27th round,

2004) was in the Majors two years later, Lincecum (first round, 2006)

won the first of back-to-back National League Cy Young Awards in 2008

and Bumgarner (first round, 2007) debuted briefly in 2009 and is

pitching well this season.

 

 

The Rays' group might be even better. James Shields, Jeff Niemann and

David Price were all first-round Draft picks. Wade Davis was a

third-rounder.

 

 

"Two of them, there's no way we get them: Niemann and Price," Melvin

said. "If you want to finish last and lose 100 games to get those kind

of guys, you can do that.

 

 

"We know we make mistakes on certain guys. But this perception that certain teams are so much better than others [is unfair]."

 

 

• The Giants are the exception; it usually takes a long, long time to develop pitchers.

 

 

Take the Rangers, who have opened a wide lead in the National League

West thanks partly to a quality staff that includes homegrown players

like Colby Lewis (first round, 1999), C.J. Wilson (fifth round, 2001)

and Scott Feldman (30th round, 2003). Lewis, who has blossomed this year

after a stint in Japan, and Wilson, who has developed as a starter this

season after five years in the bullpen, both were drafted when Melvin

was the Texas GM.

 

 

"The big part of this," Ash said, "is the patience factor."

 

 

Getting a pitcher to the Majors is only the first step.

 

 

For example, the Brewers looked at some of today's best pitchers in

their age 25 season. Chris Carpenter, at that point in his career, had

pitched 175 Major League innings with a 6.26 ERA and a 113-to-83

strikeouts-to-walks ratio. Lewis had a 7.30 ERA and an 88-to-70 ratio in

127 innings.

 

 

Compare those pitchers to Milwaukee's Parra, who at 25 owned a 4.39 ERA with a 147-to-75 strikeout ratio in 166 innings.

 

 

Yet Parra has regressed since then. Carpenter won the NL Cy Young Award

at 29 for the Cardinals and Lewis is having a breakthrough season for

the Rangers at 30.

 

 

"Patience is part of this process, and it's very, very difficult to

have," Ash said. "I don't think you can look at [Carpenter's age 25]

line and say, 'That's a Cy Young winner in the making.' But it was.

Unless you're drafting at the top, there's no quick fixes."

 

 

• Sometimes, there are few better options.

 

 

Melvin pointed to 2006, when the Brewers picked Jeffress, a Virginia high schooler.

 

 

Jeffress has been relatively healthy and still throws upper-90s

fastballs, but his career has been slowed by problems with marijuana.

One more positive test and Jeffress is banned from organized baseball

for life. The Brewers placed him on the 40-man roster last month partly

to protect their investment, and have him working relief at Double-A

Huntsville to stay engaged on a daily basis.

 

 

Melvin has gone back through that Draft and wonders if the Brewers

really can be accused of making a "mistake" on Jeffress, the 16th

overall pick. He went two slots before the Phillies took right-hander

Kyle Drabek, whom the Brewers also liked. Drabek and Jeffress are both

in Double-A. Right-hander Ian Kennedy went 21st overall to the Yankees

and is currently in the Majors with the D-backs, but the Brewers believe

he has a lower ceiling than Jeffress. Plus, Kennedy demanded a signing

bonus over the "slot" recommended by Major League Baseball, as did 28th

overall pick Daniel Bard, who has become a quality reliever for the Red

Sox. Adam Ottavino went 30th in that Draft to the Cardinals, and he's

had trouble sticking in the Majors this season.

 

 

"We took a high-ceiling guy in Jeffress, and we still believe there's a

lot of upside with him," Melvin said. "You can get [back-end of the

rotation] college guys in the first round if you want to, but we look

for upside guys who can be one, two or three starters. ... Sometimes

we'll gamble to get a one, two, three guy."

 

 

• Baseball's Draft process is broken.

 

 

It's no surprise to hear this from Melvin, a major critic of the

First-Year Player Draft. Melvin takes particular issue with the way

"signability" has interfered with teams' ability to simply pick the best

available players, and with MLB's system of compensating teams for

losing ranked free agents. Under that system, the Blue Jays had nine

picks in the first three rounds of the most recent Draft, and the Angels

had eight. The Brewers had three.

 

 

"We're hoping that changes," Melvin said.

 

 

New tools

 

 

Some of the Brewers' high-profile pitching picks have been derailed by

injuries, including 2001 first-rounder Mike Jones, who was released this

year, and Rogers. Part of the Brewers' plan to combat such setbacks

involves biomechanics, an area in which the club invested heavily even

before hiring Rick Peterson to be their pitching coach last winter. Head

team physician William Raasch developed a portable lab that the club

began using in Spring Training to analyze pitchers' throwing motion.

 

 

Ash offered an example of a "fairly high" pick from the 2010 Draft. The

player underwent his physical exam on a Thursday that included a

biomechanical analysis, which raised some red flags. By Sunday, he had a

workout plan in hand specially designed to combat some of those

troublesome movements.

 

 

Ash would not reveal the player, but the team drafted six pitchers in

the first eight rounds and has signed five of them, all right-handers:

Jimmy Nelson, Tyler Thornburg, Matt Miller, Joel Pierce and Austin Ross.

 

 

 

"We put a plan together to make sure he didn't end up on the surgery

table," Ash said. "We identified at the front end. That's the way it

should work. In the past, what would happen is you sign the guy in

summer, he reports to the Instructional League and [says], 'Gee, it's

not feeling so good.' You shut him down.

 

 

"Now, we know on day one of his professional career that there is a

risk. He can address that risk through the motion analysis exercises

that have been designed to treat those kind of issues."

 

 

Slowly, it's starting to work, according to Ash. But progress will become evident only over time.

 

 

"It's a game of mistakes, and we're not saying that we're not making

them. We are making them," Ash said. "But you have to put it in context

of the industry, not just the club. What we're trying to do is be

proactive on this front. We recognize that we haven't done what we feel

we should do, so we put a plan together."

 

 

On the free agent front

 

 

Melvin admits that the Brewers also have missed on some of their Major

League pitching acquisitions. But again, he argues that the issue is

more complicated than railing against the inadequacies of Jeff Suppan.

 

Melvin has studied the list of free agents who signed big-money

contracts -- $15 million total and up -- and found only one who he had a

legitimate chance to sign and did not. The Cubs, in Melvin's view, got

fair value from their four-year, $40 million deal with left-hander Ted

Lilly.

 

 

Part of the Brewers' trouble is luring the top arms away from the big

markets and to Milwaukee, a problem that, in part, hurt the club in its

attempt to re-sign CC Sabathia after 2008. An extra $60 million or so

from the Yankees also played a role.

 

 

Melvin had his staff compile a list of what he considered the "good,

quality pitchers" in baseball and found that 24 of them have no-trade

clauses that include Milwaukee. Dan Haren, recently traded from the

D-backs to the Angels, had such a clause. Melvin said the Brewers made a

very serious offer to the Blue Jays in December for ace right-hander

Roy Halladay, who had no-trade rights and preferred a club that spends

Spring Training in Florida. The Phillies, his eventual destination,

train in Clearwater, near Halladay's home.

 

 

"We made as good an offer as anybody. He wouldn't come," Melvin said.

"We went out on a limb and offered pretty good players for Roy Halladay.

It came down to [the fact] that he had his choice of where he wanted to

go. Philly had the advantage on him. So the talent pool that we get to

pick from sometimes is smaller than other teams."

 

 

Melvin is also frustrated by the number of free agents who engage with

the Brewers to drive up their value, then sign elsewhere and include the

Brewers in a no-trade clause.

 

 

"These are not excuses," Melvin said. "But they are things we have to work against."

 

 

Melvin plans to continue working.

 

 

"Do we have pitching problems? Yeah, we have pitching problems," he

said. "But we work at this as hard as anybody to try to identify what

the issues are."

[dlk9s]

That's actually one of the more interesting articles I have read in a while.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Once Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Rogers, Rivas, and Scarpetta become major league ready, Melvin will have the pitching he is looking for. How can we blame Melvin for all of the injuries/suspensions to our top prospect pitchers in the last few years? At least he has a plan of action to try and overcome all of the bad luck that we've had. Good for him.

[crewcrazy]

Merged the two topics that were created almost simultaneously.

[bill hAll Star]

Once Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Rogers, Rivas, and Scarpetta become major league ready, Melvin will have the pitching he is looking for. How can we blame Melvin for all of the injuries/suspensions to our top prospect pitchers in the last few years? At least he has a plan of action to try and overcome all of the bad luck that we've had. Good for him.

Because he is acknowledging he just figured out what a good pitcher is 7 years after taking the General Manager job.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

Once Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Rogers, Rivas, and Scarpetta become major league ready, Melvin will have the pitching he is looking for. How can we blame Melvin for all of the injuries/suspensions to our top prospect pitchers in the last few years? At least he has a plan of action to try and overcome all of the bad luck that we've had. Good for him.

Because he is acknowledging he just figured out what a good pitcher is 7 years after taking the General Manager job.

No, he definitely knew what a good pitcher was throughout his years as the Brewers GM, he just never had a drafting strategy that follows general qualities of successful starting pitching. There are several pitchers who don't fit those qualities that are very good major league pitchers (see Roy Oswalt or Tim Lincecum), but if they are treated as exceptions to the rule, hopefully it leads to better drafting results for Bruce Seid and his staff.

[crewcrazy]

Most of the stuff listed is hardly new. They've drafted guys with plus fastball velocity. They've drafted guys with great breaking stuff. It's not like they suddenly had an epiphany that they should be drafting guys with good stuff. The guys they've taken to this point have either gotten hurt or had other things disrupt the organization's plans, and they're far from the only organization to have those problems.

 

I do think it's interesting (and good) to see that they're going to try to dig deeper to prevent these things from happening, though. I find the "Is he over 6'2"?" question to be a little odd, but I guess I can understand it with the recent trend of young successful pitchers getting bigger and bigger. I know a lot of people are upset over Rick Peterson's performance as the pitching coach, but I always felt that they hired him to change the entire organization's pitching philosophy, not just tell the big leaguers to keep the ball down in the zone like every other pitching coach out there. This "streamlined plan" has his fingerprints all over it.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't know about you guys, but it was common knowledge to me that a guy with a plus fastball and a good breaking pitch were good pitchers.

 

The thing that disturbed me about the whole thing is that they did some major study and finally just realized the err in signing some of the worst fits as pitchers in free agency. You think there was some other reason why Randy Wolf and Jeff Suppan weren't getting anywhere near the same bids elsewhere as the Brewers gave them? I remember reading that Melvin was "disappointed" about not going after 2.50 ERA in Safeco probably 6.50 ERA in Miller Park Jarrod Washburn at the deadline last year.

 

Of course you're going to have solid arms in the minors via the draft off and on. When you draft them in the first 2 rounds, some of them are going to have these qualities, actually most. You don't even need a scout to know that about some of them. Now, I'm not taking all credit away for drafting them and saying it was a shot in the dark, but all of the highest rated pitching prospects usually have these qualities.

 

But he was acting like it was some sort of revelation through this research that the Rays and Giants and other mid-market teams (Giants are probably larger market) built their staff through minor league talent. And it seemed like he just figured out the reason that Suppan, Looper, and Wolf didn't put up the numbers here that they did with better parks and defenses in their favor and he finally realized why they aren't really that good of pitchers.

[bill hAll Star]

Guys, you're talking about a guy that had the strategy of signing "innings eaters" 3 and 4 years ago, and then modified it to "quality innings eaters" last year and this year, and now has stepped up this plan about getting plus arms.

 

If he had known what a quality pitcher was as seen in these documents, there is no reason he would have gone the route he did to fill out our awful rotation.

 

I'm not saying he said "I want all pitchers that throw less than 90" but I do think that he really only went off ERA for major league pitching, and didn't have a great grasp of minor league pitching. He got a few gems, but didn't realize that if your farm system is bare in pitching, you should find a different avenue (trading bats) to fill it up. He makes it sound like he just realized how important young pitching under team control is.

[logan82]

crewcrazy wrote:

I know a lot of people are upset over Rick Peterson's performance as the pitching coach, but I always felt that they hired him to change the entire organization's pitching philosophy, not just tell the big leaguers to keep the ball down in the zone like every other pitching coach out there. This "streamlined plan" has his fingerprints all over it.

I think we already had a lot of the stuff Peterson wanted to do in place already.

[And That]

That article was interesting, though most of it was indeed sort of "duh" information that the Brewers haven't really uncovered. I think the point, though, is that the Brewers are really set on becoming more process oriented instead of going through each personnel decision on a subjective/pragmatic basis. That's a good thing.

 

I found the part about the recently-drafted pitcher getting biomechanical analysis done before he threw his first pitch for the team really interesting - I have to believe Milwaukee is one of the few teams that is doing that, and that's something to be excited about. Now if they just start doing MRIs on everybody.

 

And Adam McCalvy, if you're reading this, Joel Pierce hasn't signed yet. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[LouisEly]

Here was the thing that stood out to me:

 

"Melvin had his staff compile a list of what he considered the "good, quality pitchers" in baseball and found that 24 of them have no-trade clauses that include Milwaukee. Dan Haren, recently traded from the D-backs to the Angels, had such a clause. "

 

The Brewers are fighting an uphill battle to get guys to want to come here. Because of that they have to overpay, and that's how you end up with Suppan, Looper, and Wolf.

[owbc]

"Melvin had his staff compile a list of what he considered the "good,

quality pitchers" in baseball and found that 24 of them have no-trade

clauses that include Milwaukee. Dan Haren, recently traded from the

D-backs to the Angels, had such a clause. "

Extremely enlightening statement...and if that is the case, then why do we keep fighting a losing battle. We should be developing our talent from within instead of pretending that we are on an equal playing field in the free agent market.

[bill hAll Star]

Here was the thing that stood out to me:

 

"Melvin had his staff compile a list of what he considered the "good, quality pitchers" in baseball and found that 24 of them have no-trade clauses that include Milwaukee. Dan Haren, recently traded from the D-backs to the Angels, had such a clause. "

 

The Brewers are fighting an uphill battle to get guys to want to come here. Because of that they have to overpay, and that's how you end up with Suppan, Looper, and Wolf.

Funny, I don't see Suppan, Looper, and/or Wolf in Tampa Bay's rotation. Or Minnesota's for that matter.

 

So many other teams have had this uphill battle and they choose not to try to fill it up with massively overrated, overpaid pitching. To the point where they outbid themselves in the Wolf/Suppan sweepstakes.

 

Who cares if these established pitchers have no trade clauses to Milwaukee. Wanna know why they have them? Because they are probably 24 of the top 30 pitchers in baseball that have signed massive contracts and it won't work that well financially to trade for a guy under massive contract anyways. That's the only way these guys are going to get a no trade clause is by being a top-dollar guy.

 

Yes, Tampa and the likes drafted a bit better but many of these teams have made much smarter signings and trades to build their staff.

 

There are ways to do it, and Doug is just picking up on them 7 years into the game. Yeah, if they had hit on a higher percentage or had less injured on their way up, it may be less evident, but come on, most other teams under this situation wouldn't waste their time with the Soups of the world...especially with our defensive and park situation.

 

CC was a special case, but for the 100th time I've posted on here, we need to stop dreaming of trading for a Haren or the likes because that is another road rarely traveled by smaller market teams.

 

How about we just do what all the other good small market teams are and build within and trade our MLB bats or maybe prospects for young pitching?

 

And can Doug also write up a 30 page document about how he isn't going to waste $15 million a year on back end of the bullpen 50 inning guys? That's another thing that is saddling this team.

[trwi7]

Because of that they have to overpay, and that's how you end up with Suppan, Looper, and Wolf.

They don't have to overpay, they choose to overpay. That's a huge difference.

 

[logan82]

Melvin is also frustrated by the number of free agents who engage with

the Brewers to drive up their value, then sign elsewhere and include the

Brewers in a no-trade clause.

 

Shocking isn't it.

[danzig6767]

Because of that they have to overpay, and that's how you end up with Suppan, Looper, and Wolf.

They don't have to overpay, they choose to overpay. That's a huge difference.

The Yankees and Red Sox could likely afford to and still win after paying

about 37-38 million this year for Suppan, Wolf, Riske, Hawkins, and

Hoffman, the Brewers can't. Yea that's a big advantage for the GM's of

rich teams, but if you have a payroll limit around 80 million and

nearly half of it is being spent on older pitchers who are doing

terrible, you can't win even if the offense is very good. That doesn't

account for the money the Brewers are paying for Bill Hall either.

That's over half the payroll on guys who are hurting the team more than

helping.

 

Smaller market GM's have to be better than average for that team to compete for playoff berths and Melvin hasn't been. His mistakes have been very costly at a time that some very good young position players have been cheap. That chance doesn't come around that often.

[igor67]

Actually if you think about the implications of the rotation analysis it pretty much demonstrates that going it all on prospects doesn't really work either. Giants and Rays that's it. The Rays benefited from years of drafting all the way at the top and the Giants frankly could be this decades A's who have a decent approach, but largely make the strategy look like a better bet than it is because of getting lucky in the draft. I found the no-trade clause data interesting. That really boxes in viable strategies. Further it needs to be clear that in practice anybody advocating a nearly strict draft and develop strategy cannot be realistically planning on having a competitive team until at least 2013, and what bats will we have then? While a good chunk of the information presented is not radically new (and why would Melvin release the really novel parts anyway?) it does seriously point to trying to solve what for most teams is a whack-a-mole style problem. Hopefully the health part works out and that will solve many issues.

[pingman]

Melvin's little presentation was somewhere between a desperate GM begging to save his job & raising the white flag (on past pitcher non-development)

[Never Outhustled]

Actually if you think about the implications of the rotation analysis it pretty much demonstrates that going it all on prospects doesn't really work either. Giants and Rays that's it.

 

Exactly. Why did we never trade for pitching? Melvin whines about not being able to land top pitchers in free agency, but didn't he anticipate that ahead of time?Good pitchers have been traded over the last 8 years, proven vets and emerging big leaguers, yet Melvin never landed any of them.

[homer]

Actually if you think about the implications of the rotation analysis it pretty much demonstrates that going it all on prospects doesn't really work either. Giants and Rays that's it.

And the Rays traded for Garza.

[endaround]

Actually if you think about the implications of the rotation analysis it pretty much demonstrates that going it all on prospects doesn't really work either. Giants and Rays that's it.

 

Exactly. Why did we never trade for pitching? Melvin whines about not being able to land top pitchers in free agency, but didn't he anticipate that ahead of time?Good pitchers have been traded over the last 8 years, proven vets and emerging big leaguers, yet Melvin never landed any of them.

Yeah, except for all the pitchers Melvin traded for he never trades for pitching!

[Never Outhustled]

Actually if you think about the implications of the rotation analysis it pretty much demonstrates that going it all on prospects doesn't really work either. Giants and Rays that's it.

 

Exactly. Why did we never trade for pitching? Melvin whines about not being able to land top pitchers in free agency, but didn't he anticipate that ahead of time?Good pitchers have been traded over the last 8 years, proven vets and emerging big leaguers, yet Melvin never landed any of them.

Yeah, except for all the pitchers Melvin traded for he never trades for pitching!

 

Who was the good pitcher he traded for that was a longterm solution?

[ninja33]

none of these were stellar longterm options in the vein of a guy like bumgarner, but for the sake of arguing:

 

-Doug Davis totaled about 11 WAR in his first stint with the brewers. not bad considering he was paid just over $5 million total for those three years.

-Capuano was close to a 2 WAR guy (almost 4 in 06) for cheap before he got hurt. Nothing to write home about, but thats a solid pitcher for a cheap price.

-Dave Bush looked like he could be one of those guys after his first two years in milwaukee (3.8 and 1.9 WAR)....then all of his rates (K, BB, HR) went the wrong way.

 

Obviously none of those players are great, but they each had a stretch of 2 or 3 years (again, i get that that isn't long term) where they pitched well and were paid very little. I think most people would agree that if the brewers can find some pitchers like pre surgery capuano or doug davis 4 years ago, it would be a great way to bridge the gap til the guys in the minors are ready in '12 and '13. Obviously I'm not happy with the way the team is built right now, and with the fact that it's static despite the deadline approaching. but im just pointing out that in the past Melvin has found some valuable arms through trades (plus sabathia's 4.6 WAR in 12 starts....but obviously that wasn't close to long term). Here's to hoping he can do it again, whether it's in the next 3 and a half hours, or in the offseason.