How would you go for it next year?

[logan82]

In years and dollars. We had to go an extra year if the reports are to be believed.

[kramnoj]

Two teams competed for his services, and Wolf got more than he was first offered by the Brewers in both money and years. While war might not be the most accurate description, Wolf clearly benefited from competition, and the Brewers clearly "won" it.

 

As for overpaying for him, that's most likely a given at this point, but that is a different thing than saying the Brewers can't win a bidding war.

 

Beltre is going to get a lot of interest this offseason

 

Most of the big spending teams won't have the money or the place for Beltre. I don't doubt there will be interest, and I don't think he'll be cheap, but if the Brewers feel that Beltre is the best fit for them and if Prince has been traded for a cheap starter, I don't think it's a given that the Brewers couldn't give him the best offer.

 

As for whether it makes sense for the Brewers to go after Beltre, I'm just not convinced. It might be a coincidence that Beltre's best years have come in walk years, but I wouldn't want to spend $30-$50M to find out. And it would be tough for Beltre to provide better value than the Brewers could get by just playing Gamel and Casey.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I don't get where we would even play Beltre.

 

I think either Werth or Crawford are probably the two most logical "big splash" signings the Brewers could make this off-season (we won't get Cliff Lee and there aren't any other real big name FA pitchers available). Trade Prince for a quality starting pitcher, and then sign one of those two. Move Hart (or Braun) to 1B. Huge interest from fans, huge merchandise and ticket sales in the off-season, etc.

[Mr Southpaw]

How much would Victor Martinez cost? Prince goes, Victor comes in and we have a lot of flexibility?

[igor67]

I think there is a serious way forward now. I'm not claiming that we'll morph into a great team, but there are some plausible combinations of moves that get this team pushing 90 wins. I like signing Vazquez as a value move. All of our FA besides Cappy go. Gomez can walk, though if the final budget numbers are OK you could bring him back in AAA. Some combo of Fielder and Casey is dealt to either directly get a top notch (1 or 2) starter, or more likely extra pieces in that quest. Take a look for your best combo of offense defense at RF and 3rd base (internal options vs. external), Improve 1st base defense by moving Hart. Finish a deal for that extra starter without giving up Lawrie, Odorizzi, or Rogers (I think the value equation might have shifted enough that Jeffress might have enough trade value that he could be tradeable for a more known quantity as a starter).

 

That's some defensive improvements, offensive hits are modest with a lot of upside between full years of Cain, Escobar, and LuCroy. The bullpen has gobs of options to be very high quality and depth throughout the year, and Rogers becomes your 6th starter in the case on injury or ineffectiveness.

[colbyjack]

Two teams competed for his services, and Wolf got more than he was first offered by the Brewers in both money and years. While war might not be the most accurate description, Wolf clearly benefited from competition, and the Brewers clearly "won" it.

 

Well put kramnoj. Although I think there will be more interest in Beltre, and whoever signs him would be buying high.

 

I still like the idea of signing him, almost more for his defense than for his bat, and while he's having one of his biggest years, he is still a pretty reliable power/patience type of hitter.

 

I also really like the idea of bringing in Victor Martinez to play first base. I could see him enjoying a modest improvement at the plate if he didn't have to take his lumps behind it, and even if he didn't he's always been a good hitter even if he doesn't offer the power that Prince does. However, I'm not sure if Martinez would be open to such a move, as his value would clearly be lesser as a first baseman (although I know many think it's a matter of when and not if when that move becomes permanent).

 

Obviously pursuing Beltre or Martinez means some movement of existing players. Some combination of Gamel/Hart/Fielder/McGehee would be dealt in this scenario. However, I don't think the Brewers will make these kind of moves.

[nate82]

Obviously pursuing Beltre or Martinez means some movement of existing players. Some combination of Gamel/Hart/Fielder/McGehee would be dealt in this scenario. However, I don't think the Brewers will make these kind of moves.

I know the Orioles have been linked with having interest in Martinez and playing him at 1B, C, and DH. It wouldn't be a bad move to sign Martinez and have him as the backup or emergency catcher and then have him play primarily at 1B though that would mean either Gamel or McGehee need to be traded.

 

How about this scenario:

 

3-team trade: Billingsley to the Brewers; Loney, Gomez, McClendon, and cash to the Rays; Prince, Parra, and Upton to the Dodgers. I am not sure the Rays accept that offer but it would replace an expensive Upton with a cheaper option in Gomez and Loney will be cheaper than any free agent the Rays could pick up.

 

McGehee plus a low prospect to the Marlins for Nolasco.

 

FA Signing: Beltre to play 3B.

 

Lineup:

1. Weeks 2B

2. Gamel 1B

3. Beltre 3B

4. Braun LF

5. Hart RF

6. Cain CF

7. Lucroy C

8. Escobar SS

9. Pitcher

 

Rotation: Gallardo, Billingsley, Nolasco, Wolf, Rogers/Narveson/Capuano

Bullpen: Axford, Coffey, Braddock, Hawkins, (2 of) Rogers/Narveson/Capuano, and Loe.

 

Bench: Inglett, Cruz, Kottaras, Farris, and Katin

 

That would give the Brewers a great rotation. I am not sure of the 3-team trade there seems to be something missing for the Rays and I just can't find that piece in the Dodgers system. Might have to add a positional player from the Brewers farm system to get that trade to work. That rotation would be the best rotation in the NL and would rival that of the Yankees and Rays rotation. Offense would be the big question mark here. Will Gamel and Beltre be able to replace Prince's production? Hart won't do what he did this year again next year so you have to expect some regression from him. The bullpen maybe a little shaky though.

[logan82]

Beltre for his defense might be good. Not sure I would like his bat though. His OBP's are sort of up and down. I would be more comfortable with Gamel's offense than Beltre. I would choose Beltre on defense though. If we were to sign Beltre I think one of Gamel or McGehee would have to get traded.

[MNBrew]

Obviously pursuing Beltre or Martinez means some movement of existing players. Some combination of Gamel/Hart/Fielder/McGehee would be dealt in this scenario. However, I don't think the Brewers will make these kind of moves.

I know the Orioles have been linked with having interest in Martinez and playing him at 1B, C, and DH. It wouldn't be a bad move to sign Martinez and have him as the backup or emergency catcher and then have him play primarily at 1B though that would mean either Gamel or McGehee need to be traded.

 

How about this scenario:

 

3-team trade: Billingsley to the Brewers; Loney, Gomez, McClendon, and cash to the Rays; Prince, Parra, and Upton to the Dodgers. I am not sure the Rays accept that offer but it would replace an expensive Upton with a cheaper option in Gomez and Loney will be cheaper than any free agent the Rays could pick up.

 

McGehee plus a low prospect to the Marlins for Nolasco.

 

FA Signing: Beltre to play 3B.

 

Lineup:

1. Weeks 2B

2. Gamel 1B

3. Beltre 3B

4. Braun LF

5. Hart RF

6. Cain CF

7. Lucroy C

8. Escobar SS

9. Pitcher

 

Rotation: Gallardo, Billingsley, Nolasco, Wolf, Rogers/Narveson/Capuano

Bullpen: Axford, Coffey, Braddock, Hawkins, (2 of) Rogers/Narveson/Capuano, and Loe.

 

Bench: Inglett, Cruz, Kottaras, Farris, and Katin

 

That would give the Brewers a great rotation. I am not sure of the 3-team trade there seems to be something missing for the Rays and I just can't find that piece in the Dodgers system. Might have to add a positional player from the Brewers farm system to get that trade to work. That rotation would be the best rotation in the NL and would rival that of the Yankees and Rays rotation. Offense would be the big question mark here. Will Gamel and Beltre be able to replace Prince's production? Hart won't do what he did this year again next year so you have to expect some regression from him. The bullpen maybe a little shaky though.

The McGehee/Nolasco idea might work. There's much to like about Billingsley, but your big trade is nuts:

 

Brewers get 1 good but not elite pitcher. Brewers give up one of the league best monster hitters at age 26, strong young righty AND lefty relievers, a lightning-fast defensive whiz who can't get on base, AND cash? You're kidding, right? That's ridiculous! Maybe Billingsley for Fielder, straight up. But not Fielder + 3 other MLB players plus cash.

 

Maybe Fielder won't net the return we're hoping for in an ideal world. But Fielder's a young, elite power hitter, and you're throwing him in with those other young guys plus cash as if he's only a promising prospect, not a proven 50-HR, 100-walk, 100+ RBI hitter.

[nate82]

The McGehee/Nolasco idea might work. There's much to like about Billingsley, but your big trade is nuts:

 

Brewers get 1 good but not elite pitcher. Brewers give up one of the league best monster hitters at age 26, strong young righty AND lefty relievers, a lightning-fast defensive whiz who can't get on base, AND cash? You're kidding, right? That's ridiculous! Maybe Billingsley for Fielder, straight up. But not Fielder + 3 other MLB players plus cash.

 

Maybe Fielder won't net the return we're hoping for in an ideal world. But Fielder's a young, elite power hitter, and you're throwing him in with those other young guys plus cash as if he's only a promising prospect, not a proven 50-HR, 100-walk, 100+ RBI hitter.

Gallardo

Season	Team	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
Total Postseason	- - - - - -	36 0	24 1	0 0	85 2	82 1	505.0 7.0	9.36 5.14	3.81 6.43	0.78 0.00	.313 .203	74.3 % 66.7 %	42.4 % 36.8 %	9.0 % 0.0 %	3.67 0.00	3.51 4.13	3.70 5.50	10.2
2007	Brewers	9	5	0	20	17	110.1	8.24	3.02	0.65	.311	71.9 %	38.2 %	6.6 %	3.67	3.41	3.97	2.5
2008	Brewers	0	0	0	4	4	24.0	7.50	3.00	1.13	.285	96.9 %	40.0 %	9.7 %	1.88	4.09	4.23	0.3
2009	Brewers	13	12	0	30	30	185.2	9.89	4.56	1.02	.288	77.9 %	45.0 %	12.3 %	3.73	3.97	3.76	2.7
2010	Brewers	14	7	0	31	31	185.0	9.73	3.65	0.58	.340	69.8 %	43.0 %	7.1 %	3.84	3.03	3.42	4.6

Billingsley

Season	Team	W	L	SV	G	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	LOB%	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	FIP	xFIP	WAR
Total Postseason	- - - - - -	59 1	41 2	0 0	160 6	131 3	825.2 17.0	8.19 11.65	3.89 5.29	0.66 0.53	.307 .423	75.0 % 55.9 %	46.8 % 43.5 %	7.6 % 8.3 %	3.55 6.88	3.68 3.07	4.05 3.27	14.8
2006	Dodgers	7	4	0	18	16	90.0	5.90	5.80	0.70	.304	76.8 %	48.2 %	7.0 %	3.80	4.88	5.39	0.6
2007	Dodgers	12	5	0	43	20	147.0	8.63	3.92	0.92	.298	80.2 %	41.0 %	9.6 %	3.31	4.02	4.14	2.0
2008	Dodgers	16	10	0	35	32	200.2	9.01	3.59	0.63	.323	78.0 %	49.0 %	8.1 %	3.14	3.35	3.62	4.4
2009	Dodgers	12	11	0	33	32	196.1	8.21	3.94	0.78	.294	71.0 %	45.3 %	8.8 %	4.03	3.82	4.04	3.1
2010	Dodgers	12	11	0	31	31	191.2	8.03	3.24	0.38	.313	71.0 %	49.6 %	4.5 %	3.57	3.08	3.81	4.6

Both are rather close in value and you are not going to get an elite pitcher for Prince. Someone like Garza or Billingsley are going to be the best options that you will get that will help the team next year. Other options would be A and AA guys who won't help out for next year which this scenario is not taking into consideration. So with that being said Billingsley or Garza types would be the best options in going for it next year. The cash can come from either the Dodgers or the Brewers I just put that in there as that would be needed for the Rays. The Brewers would probably receive a low level prospect or two for Fielder in that deal but that isn't really important since it wouldn't impact the 2011 team so I left that part out. Relievers generally don't get much in return when you trade them.

[dadofandrew]

Billingsley for Fielder seems pretty fair to me, he's good with upside. I do not know if LA can afford Prince in that mess, but it's something to build on.

[804Sox]

Beltre is going to get a lot of interest this offseason

 

Most of the big spending teams won't have the money or the place for Beltre. I don't doubt there will be interest, and I don't think he'll be cheap, but if the Brewers feel that Beltre is the best fit for them and if Prince has been traded for a cheap starter, I don't think it's a given that the Brewers couldn't give him the best offer.

 

As for whether it makes sense for the Brewers to go after Beltre, I'm just not convinced. It might be a coincidence that Beltre's best years have come in walk years, but I wouldn't want to spend $30-$50M to find out. And it would be tough for Beltre to provide better value than the Brewers could get by just playing Gamel and Casey.

Something to consider:

 

Beltre has emphasized all along that he wants to play on the West Coast to be near his family and stated entering this past season that he was going to Boston to build value for free agency. I would like to say that he's likely to stay in Boston if he doesn't go to a West Coast team, but it may be that neither the Red Sox nor the Brewers have a shot at him. The dude has made a lot of money in his career, and you can be sure that after the season Beltre just had, Boras will be able to squeeze plenty of money out of the Angels or Oakland or whoever he wants to play for, even if he could have gotten more from BOS or MIL on the open market.

[RockCoCougars]

I have no interest in Beltre for a big contract. First of all, 3rd base is not a position of need. Secondly- and most importantly- as someone else pointed out, Beltre's best seasons come when he is playing for a contract. He's no spring chicken either. I'm not interested in giving him a big contract that will take him in to his mid 30's.

[PrinceFielderx1]

If we were to sign Beltre I think one of Gamel or McGehee would have to get traded.

The Brewers could sign Beltre and move McGehee to 1B. That would improve the Brewers defense on the left side and probably the right side as well. Beltre bat could make up for some of the production lost from trading Fielder. If the Brewers trade Fielder that is.

[logan82]

Where is Gamel in your plan?

[PrinceFielderx1]

Where is Gamel in your plan?

The Brewers can package him with another player or two for a good SP.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Does anybody remember when Doug Melvin made those comments that in order to get pitching you will have to give up pitching in return? We'll I was thinking and the Brewers finally have pitching in the upper part of their minor League system, so does that mean they can finally trade for pitching and not need to over pay with offensive prospects, and not need a third team to be involved?

[colbyjack]

The more I think about it, if the team is serious about going for it next year, they need to keep Fielder and as much as the offense intact. There are some good proposals making a series of acquisitions from Beltre and V-Mart to acquiring a few of the more realistic free agent starting pitchers.

 

But how realistic is it for the Brewers to get that active and involved on the free agent market this offseason?

 

Keep Fielder, try to extend Weeks. Try to keep as many positive parts from the 2010 season intact while doing the opposite to the negative ones.

 

Make Lawrie the trade focus for the offseason, and try to take advantage of a team that remains years away from contending that has a promising pitcher to deal and would be willing to do so for an appealing prospect package. Zack Greinke is the first that comes to mind, but without doing too much research, I'm guessing we're going to hear about 1-2 more this offseason.

 

If the team still sucks come the deadline, deal Prince then, hopefully for a package better than the 2 comp picks. The pitcher you acquire for Lawrie & company (such as Greinke), could net a similar talented package in trade at some other point in time, again, if the team still sucks during the next 1-2 years.

 

I'm not necessarily convinced that this is the right idea, as re-loading a little next year to hope for bigger and better things in 2012 may be the more prudent decision, but I don't expect Melvin/Attanasio to have the same expectations for the 2011 season.

[sveumrules]

If the market for Fielder is going to be as weak as many are predicting I'd rather keep him than trade him for Ervin Santana or Gavin Floyd, and try to acquire pitching elsewhere that's for sure. Being a Boras client in a walk year and having his bizarre alternating merely good/great yearly trend (wOBA 06-10 354/417/370/420/380) I think the Prince is in line for MVP caliber offensive prodcution in 2011.

 

If you can extend Weeks (say at a similar price as Hart) and deal some combination of Lawrie, and 2 of Peralta/Rivas/Heckathorn/Scarpetta/Kentrail for Greinke and Kila I think we can afford to do it as all the positions outside of 1B would be (theoretically) locked up through at least 2013 in house and it would leave us plenty of time to draft/develop a couple impact bats. If KC insisted on one of Rogers/Jeffress/Odorizzi to be included I'd tell them to call back some other time. From the KC side a young offensive core of Moustakas, Hosmer, Lawrie, Myers & Colon is pretty ridiculous.

 

If we could get anything of value for McGehee at all he would be the one I'd most like to move as we have a seemingly capable replacement in Gamel and I think he (and Hart) are the most likely regression candidates but unfortunately I don't think his trade value around the league will match up with our FO's assessment of his worth.

[MNBrew]

Giving this thread a little bump, I found THIS on mlbtraderumors.com tonight:

• The Marlins are focusing on an extension for Dan Uggla before they return to negotiations with Ricky Nolasco on a long-term deal, reports Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald.
• Larry Beinfest tells Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post
  that relief pitching will be a priority for Florida in the offseason.
  “In terms of addressing the bullpen, we’ve kind of opened up ourselves
  to every avenue, whether it be free agency, keeping one of our own free
  agents or looking elsewhere. We are cultivating trades,” Beinfest said

Okay, we have some decent-to-good & proven bullpen arms that could help sweeten a potential Nolasco-to-Milwaukee deal (whether McGehee as earlier suggested, or Gamel, or whomever):

 

- Villanueva & Coffey are both potential non-tenders, but when they're good, they're tough to do much of anything against. They're potentially "disposable" in terms of being decent trade "assets" or "sweeteners."

- McClendon is another possibly include-able arm.

- Parra -- no questioning the talent lurking somewhere in there, just the head/concentration/composure and the execution.

[Warning Track Power]

Obviously pursuing Beltre or Martinez means some movement of existing players. Some combination of Gamel/Hart/Fielder/McGehee would be dealt in this scenario. However, I don't think the Brewers will make these kind of moves.

I know the Orioles have been linked with having interest in Martinez and playing him at 1B, C, and DH. It wouldn't be a bad move to sign Martinez and have him as the backup or emergency catcher and then have him play primarily at 1B though that would mean either Gamel or McGehee need to be traded.

 

How about this scenario:

 

3-team trade: Billingsley to the Brewers; Loney, Gomez, McClendon, and cash to the Rays; Prince, Parra, and Upton to the Dodgers. I am not sure the Rays accept that offer but it would replace an expensive Upton with a cheaper option in Gomez and Loney will be cheaper than any free agent the Rays could pick up.

 

McGehee plus a low prospect to the Marlins for Nolasco.

 

FA Signing: Beltre to play 3B.

 

Lineup:

1. Weeks 2B

2. Gamel 1B

3. Beltre 3B

4. Braun LF

5. Hart RF

6. Cain CF

7. Lucroy C

8. Escobar SS

9. Pitcher

 

Rotation: Gallardo, Billingsley, Nolasco, Wolf, Rogers/Narveson/Capuano

Bullpen: Axford, Coffey, Braddock, Hawkins, (2 of) Rogers/Narveson/Capuano, and Loe.

 

Bench: Inglett, Cruz, Kottaras, Farris, and Katin

 

That would give the Brewers a great rotation. I am not sure of the 3-team trade there seems to be something missing for the Rays and I just can't find that piece in the Dodgers system. Might have to add a positional player from the Brewers farm system to get that trade to work. That rotation would be the best rotation in the NL and would rival that of the Yankees and Rays rotation. Offense would be the big question mark here. Will Gamel and Beltre be able to replace Prince's production? Hart won't do what he did this year again next year so you have to expect some regression from him. The bullpen maybe a little shaky though.

-I am all for a Prince and Parra for Billingsley and Loney deal. Loney is the Overbay-type hitter that this lineup needs in my opinion. Replacing Fielder with a doubles hitter who can provide a high OBP and draw some walks is not necessarily a bad thing. I think this is fair value for Prince.

-Re-signing Weeks is a critical part of the offseason to me.

-Trade the prospects to complete the deal to get Greinke

 

Walking into next season with:

IF : Loney, Weeks, Escobar, McGehee

OF: Braun, Cain, Hart

C: Lucroy

 

SP: Gallardo, Greinke, Billingsley, Wolf, Rogers/Narveson

 

That team on paper, assuming they play to expectations, wins the NL Central next year.

 

 

[Gobias Industries]

I've liked the idea of getting Loney to replace Fielder for a couple years now.

 

Main reason....

 

Home: .268/.334/.377

Away: .307/.361/.493

[endaround]

Most of that is BABIP driven. Lat year his BABIP was the same home and away and he was the same poor hitter home and away.

[TooLiveBrew]

You're arguing that a sample of 325 PAs tells us more than a sample of 1200+ PAs? Come on.

 

Adrian Gonzalez has a very similar home/road BABIP split, and I'm pretty sure you wouldn't try to argue he's just an .800 OPS guy because he gets lucky on the road. Loney's a solid hitter that gets killed by his home park. He might not be a .300/.360/.495/.855 true talent, but I think a .350 OBP & .475-ish SLG is a very reasonable projection for him outside of Dodger Stadium.

[TooLiveBrew]

This isn't a defining move or anything like that, but Jon Heyman tweeted

papelbon trade market is very weak. word is #redsox would pay a bit of his expected arbitration windfall in the right deal

Just wondering what people think about theoretically dealing for Papelbon. If the market is weak & the BoSox want to move his salary, wouldn't that be a nice time to buy low on a guy? You're not committed to him beyond '11, and even if he didn't rebound to his '06-'09 numbers, he'd probably be a Type A free agent.

 

The Brewers will have quite a bit of payroll room this coming season. You could add a guy with potential to be as good as any closer in the game, and then net a comp pick or two by letting him walk after '11.