How would you go for it next year?

[uwisfan]

2. Trade McGehee, Parra, and Odorizzi to KC for Grienke

As desparate as the Brewers have been for high-rotation pitching prospects, and you would dare suggest they give up 5-6 years of Odorizzi? Thats kind of crazy.

[paul253]

As desparate as the Brewers have been for high-rotation pitching

prospects, and you would dare suggest they give up 5-6 years of

Odorizzi? Thats kind of crazy.

 

Yeah but he is still in A ball and probably at least 3 years away. By then we could have Peralta, Rivas, Scarpetta and Heckathorn all in Milwaukee. Greinke is one of the best pitchers in the AL. I'd do that trade in a heartbeat if KC would take it.

[bill hAll Star]

Tampa isn't giving up Hellickson for Prince. They're already losing Crawford et al and Garza/Shields won't be there forever. Throwing Hellickson in there and losing Prince after next year would be the downfall of that franchise.

[RockCoCougars]

Here's my ideas for 2011 and beyond:

 

1. Trade Prince to Tampa for Hellickson and Zobrist.

2. Trade McGehee, Parra, and Odorizzi to KC for Grienke

Replace McGehee with Lawrie, and you might have a deal, or you may need to add Lawrie to the mix keeping McGehee in. I'd probably still do it.

Replace Hellickson with Garza, and you may have a snowball's chance at getting something done with Prince and Tampa. I'd do that one for sure.

[Never Outhustled]

Every "going for it" scenario laid out in this thread has our payroll at $80 million or less for next year. Did I miss an announce about the Brewers massively slashing payroll next year?

[1e Corbeau]

Every "going for it" scenario laid out in this thread has our payroll at $80 million or less for next year. Did I miss an announce about the Brewers massively slashing payroll next year?

No formal announcement http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif But, that 9% hit in attendance will likely have effect on the overall payroll. And, it could get worse than a 9% drop if the Brewers don't seriously make a play towards .500 ball, I would think.

 

Still, I was thinking closer to $90 million for next year before the attendance drop, precipitating a situation where the Brewers do keep Fielder for a last push before he walks. But, with Attanasio admitting FA pitching signing doesn't work well (especially for the Brewers) and the increasing candidness with which Melvin and Attanasio have addressed our lack of pitching, I now am leaning towards that rhetoric preparing fans for a Prince for pitching trade for next season.

 

Payroll-wise, subtracting Prince, Davis, and Counsell puts the Brewers slightly under $60 M, assuming Rickie gets $4 M in arbitration/settled contract. That number includes holding onto Coffey at about $2.75 M (est.), which he may not get. With that as my parameter, I'd love to see Rickie offered a 4/$31 M (5-7-9-10) extension, or something near that.

 

Ideally, we'd use that approximate $20+ M to make a push for Cliff Lee, allowing Prince to be moved for high-ceiling SPing that might be a few years away. We'd have a Lee-Gallardo-Wolf-(2 of Parra/Narveson/Butler/Rivas/Peralta/Rogers) rotation, plus the possibility of a wave of pitching (#2-#3) arriving in 2012 with Scarpetta (2011, since he'll be out of options sooner), Odorizzi, Hecky, maybe Arnett.

 

If Lee is not realistic (it probably isn't, but we do have that $20+ M available), then it's Fielder getting incorporated into a trade that either returns MLB-ready #2-#3 pitching or #1-#2 with a high salary (for his current team's budget). Possibilities, for the latter would be:

 

1. Shields (Tampa might go for a Fielder swap, and Shields has been getting poor results on his usually solid peripherals)

2. Cain (if Bumgarner has a breakout year)

 

MLB-ready guys on teams that might want to go "all-in" with Prince next year (extra pieces going back and forth in these, too)

1. W. Davis (shoulder problem alert! and we should get more back than just Davis)

2. Bumgarner

3. Pineda (doubtful Jack Z would give up 6 years of Pineda for one of Prince, but you might be able to exchange pieces to make it work..)

 

Otherwise, you could flip Prince for prospects that allow the Brewers to move redundant prospects to someone not looking for a $15 M 1B/DH with a year of control remaining. Some possibilities:

 

1. Greinke (KC would want prospects, possibly OF, 2B, SP; I'd love to see if they'd move a Gordon [buy low] or Kila Ka'aihue as part of that deal!)

2. Nolasco (FLA would take whatever, as long as it's high upside, I'm guessing: 1 of our top 5 [Odorizzi, Hecky, Ke. Davis, Gamel] plus a top 20 guy)

3. Pineda (You could flip Lawrie perhaps, which might be less painful with a Weeks extension and with Hart under control through 2013)

 

Ideally, I'd love to see us land Greinke or Shields. Granted those are two very different packages (TB might want Fielder, KC no way). I'm hoping we move McGehee before the bottom drops out. Otherwise, if Lawrie can play an average 3B, he'd be my only untouchable other than Braun and Yo.

[JohnBriggs12]

Here's my ideas for 2011 and beyond:

 

1. Trade Prince to Tampa for Hellickson and Zobrist.

2. Trade McGehee, Parra, and Odorizzi to KC for Grienke

3. Non Tender Coffey and Narveson

 

Rotation: Yo, Grienke, Hellickson, Wolf, and Bush

Pen: Axford, Jeffress, Braddock, Hawkins, Loe, and Stetter (or a FA)

Lineup: Escobar (SS), Cain (CF), Hart (1B), Braun (LF), Weeks (2B), Zobrist (RF/3B), Gamel (3B/RF), Lucroy ©

Bench; Gomez, Dickerson, Kotteras, Counsell, and a FA with power

You would "non-tender" Narveson who's not even arby eligible until 2013, and spend what $5 million to bring back Bush as a 5th starter? For the same dollars, I'd take Narveson over Bush. As it is, he's at least $3 million cheaper and under control for several more years.

 

KC would not go for that deal for Grienke. First, as good as Odorizzi is, KC will command a major league ready arm back in any deal for Grienke and no Parra doesn't count. Parra is a throw in. The only way the Brewers can get that is to involve a 3rd team. They also don't need a 3rd baseman. Gordon's back up now and he's too good to continue to struggle.

[sveumrules]

Something like this...

C (2) Lucroy, Kottaras

Pretty easy here. Two cheap, productive in house options.

IF (4) Gamel, Weeks, McGehee, Escobar

Fielder is traded for a young pitcher who can slot into the rotation hopefully sooner than later. I have a feeling that in the interest of not moving people all over the diamond the club will leave McGehee and Hart where they are at and slide Gamel in at first base.

OF (3) Braun, Cain, Hart

Center is the only real question here and I really hope they just give Cain the job outright.

Bench (4 I HOPE) ????

Dickerson and Inglett are probably both in here for sure. Maybes include guys like Gomez and Cruz. They'll definitely need a utility guy and someone with a little pop.

Rotation (5) Lee, Yo, Wolf, Fielder Return, Parra

Yo and Wolf are the only real for sures here. Cots has our commitments for next year at 32 million. Even with arby raises, a payroll drop and hopeful Weeks extension we will have money to spend. I'd go hard after Cliff. Signing Lee would also offset the bad PR of a Fielder trade to some extent. I understand it is next to impossible, but this is the internet. As for Parra I think he is a perfect 5th starter because if he pitches to his potential you have a solid #3 and if he pitches to his recent results you have a competent albeit frustrating #5.

Bullpen (7) Axford, Braddock, Hawkins, Coffey, Loe, ???

Again there is a lot of fungibility for the back end. I think Narvy would be a fine long man/emergency PH. Jeffress could be up sooner than later. Melvin is the GM so he'll probably throw money at some old guy too.

[igor67]

Seeing Cain have some success has definitely helped to open some options. I do think Melvin will try to do something like this for next year. I just hope he uses what time is left to try and acclimate guys as much as possible. One thing to think about is that LuCroy and Escobar give a lot of upside on next year's offense, along with a rebounding Braun, and replacing what Prince has done this year is a lot easier with his merely good performance.

[Invader3K]

I like sveumrules' plan overall, but I am convinced there is just no possible way we will land Cliff Lee. I think a second trade may have to be swung if we want anyone decent (ie. not another aging veteran free agent near his decline years).

[sveumrules]

In terms of our chances with Cliff Lee, I like to think of it in similar terms as the 1 in a million scene in Dumb and Dumber. "So what you're saying is...I GOT A CHANCE!"

 

But the Brewers definitely have the money to go out and make a big offer, especially if Prince is traded. I'm guessing Lee will be looking at offers between the money/years that Lackey got this year and CC got two years ago. I'd maybe try and get creative and offer him 4/100 or 3/85. Shorter years at a higher salary so he can hit FA again sooner. You increase your short term risk, but limit the long term risk and maintain a higher degree of flexibility moving forward.

[Invader3K]

I like that you're thinking outside the box. The problem is that Lee is already 31. My guess is that he's viewing this as his last chance at a big payday. It'll probably take something like 6 years/$120 million to realistically get a deal done. That's just too much for the Brewers to mess around with.

[igor67]

I wonder if they are smart on shuffling the offense and defensive side I think there is a lot of room for improvement next year without going crazy. Particularly a nice defensive improvement helps the staff quite a bit along with having a nice stable of bullpen guys the shuffle around and find the effective mix sooner if things get difficult. With those elements I think Grienke is enough of a rotation improvement to give the team a shot without going so whole hog the ruin what is set-up to be a pretty decent run with lots of younger pitchers and seemingly enough position guys to keep churning guys every few years to keep the budget reasonable.

[Never Outhustled]

The problem is that Lee is already 31. My guess is that he's viewing this as his last chance at a big payday. It'll probably take something like 6 years/$120 million to realistically get a deal done. That's just too much for the Brewers to mess around with

$20 million a year is chump change for Lee when you compare it to the the $28.25 million their paying this year to Suppan, Davis, Riske, and Hoffman for their below replacement level production. Even if Lee eventually regresses to mediocrity, I don't see him being as far below replacement level as the aforementioned foursome, even if he did, it wouldn't be as expensive.

[paul253]

I think we need to drop the Cliff Lee talk. I don't think we can afford to spend that much money on one guy. We need to focus on what the problem is, which is a lack of good, cheap starting pitching. Make whatever trade you need to do to acquire two young, high ceiling prospects. Moving Prince should bring one in return. If you have to trade Lawrie or Gamel to get the other, you do it. Personally I would target Pineda from Seattle. Jack Z. probably has a thing for some of the Brewers prospects since he drafted a lot of them, and I thought I heard Seattle needs offense. It's a match made in heaven. Pineda for Lawrie and maybe a throw-in. That would be a huge step in the right direction.

 

I'd also like to see Rickie Weeks extended and batting second next season behind Lorenzo Cain.

[Never Outhustled]

I think we need to drop the Cliff Lee talk. I don't think we can afford to spend that much money on one guy. We need to focus on what the problem is, which is a lack of good, cheap starting pitching. Make whatever trade you need to do to acquire two young, high ceiling prospects. .

 

Grrrr, why are we slashing payroll? Why can't we spend that much on 1 guy? Do you like the present format of spending the same amount on several useless guys. Go ahead and project the roster the next 5 years and tel me when paying 1 guy big bucks is going to be a problem.

 

 

 

 

Sorry for be so grumpy, its just that numerous people have made the same statement you have without providing any evidence to support their opinion.

[TooLiveBrew]

The main problem I see with Lee is that the Yankees will beat any offer. It's just not realistic to expect to be able to outbid them.

[Menace II Sobriety]

 

Grrrr, why are we slashing payroll? Why can't we spend that much on 1 guy? Do you like the present format of spending the same amount on several useless guys. Go ahead and project the roster the next 5 years and tel me when paying 1 guy big bucks is going to be a problem.

 

 

 

 

Sorry for be so grumpy, its just that numerous people have made the same statement you have without providing any evidence to support their opinion.

Any money that the Brewers can offer Cliff Lee he can get from another club that he would rather play for. They are not going to outbid everybody for his services. Also he stated that he wants a no-trade clause in his contract because he has been shipped around so much in the last 2 years. I highly doubt he wants to sign a 5-6 year deal and commit almost the rest of his career to play in Milwaukee, maybe if the Crew could add a clause where he can demand a trade he would be interested.

 

The Brewers are looking at less pre-sold tickets going into next year than this year, so it would make sense to have a smaller operating budget. They can leave room to add salary at the trade deadline, but what good businessman takes a 5 million (not factual just a guess) loss and than sets the budget the same the next year and hopes for a better year.

 

I think they could afford a $20 MM player in the right circumstance. I do not think it is a good idea to add a salary like that just because they have bad contracts coming off the books and this one can't be worse. We have been waiting 2 years for these contracts to be gone, I am sure they have a plan in place.

[dadofandrew]

I'm sure Cliff Lee has no desire to play in MIL, never mind others will outbid the Crew. It's not the $20M a year that is a killer, it's the 5-7 year length, risk of injury, and the like.

[Baldkin]

X ellence]

I think we need to drop the Cliff Lee talk. I don't think we can afford to spend that much money on one guy. We need to focus on what the problem is, which is a lack of good, cheap starting pitching. Make whatever trade you need to do to acquire two young, high ceiling prospects. .

 

Grrrr, why are we slashing payroll? Why can't we spend that much on 1 guy? Do you like the present format of spending the same amount on several useless guys. Go ahead and project the roster the next 5 years and tel me when paying 1 guy big bucks is going to be a problem.

Yeah, I mean, I'd much rather be locked into Carlos Lee for the next 2 years than have Suppan and Hall's deals coming off the books this season.

[igor67]

I kind of like the 4/100 or 3/85 idea. I don't know that it works, but particularly the 3 year deal makes him a FA again at 34. Still young enough he could sign another 3 or 4 year deal at the time for pretty good money if he played well up to that point.

 

On the overall payroll side I agree with you X that there is no really good reason to think the payroll needs to shrink substantially. I do think it is reasonable for it to shrink back to say about 80 million for next year and given the amount of youth currently on the team I'd want it to drop some, so that we have some room to regrow it abit during the next couple of years.

[Invader3K]

I'm sure Cliff Lee has no desire to play in MIL, never mind others will outbid the Crew. It's not the $20M a year that is a killer, it's the 5-7 year length, risk of injury, and the like.

Exactly. I still say the Yankees will be after him with a vengeance. There will be no way the Brewers can or should beat any offer the Yankees will be able to make.

[Never Outhustled]

I'm sure Cliff Lee has no desire to play in MIL, never mind others will outbid the Crew. It's not the $20M a year that is a killer, it's the 5-7 year length, risk of injury, and the like.

Exactly. I still say the Yankees will be after him with a vengeance. There will be no way the Brewers can or should beat any offer the Yankees will be able to make.

 

 

For all you know, Cliff Lee might have no desire to play in NY at all. Plenty of players have the east coast teams on their no-trade lists. Lee is from rural Arkansas, its possible he's not a big city guy. He might like the midwest life style, he did sign an extension to continue to play for a bad Cleveland team. Stop pretending to be experts on Cliff Lee.

 

Even if the Brewers can't get an agreement with Lee, they could sign Vazquez and Hudson. I know one thing, there not going to sit on their money.

 

And I'll ask one more time, someone please show where, in projecting future payroll, how spending $25 a year on Lee for great production is more crippling than spending $41.25 million this year on Suppan, Wolf, Hoffman, Davis, Riske, and Hawkins for below replacement level production.. We're also paying another $2.3 million in buyouts of failed pitchers from past years.

[Invader3K]

We heard all the same things about Sabathia.

 

"He's not a big city guy! He loved playing in Milwaukee! He loves to hit!"

 

Yet he still signed with New York after supposedly "wrestling with the decision" for months. Yes, I have never met Cliff Lee or talked to him in person, but when everything boils down to it...money usually talks. Yeah, I could be wrong and he could shock the baseball world by signing with a smaller market team like the Brewers, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet on it.

 

Also, it's not spending $20-25 million on Lee next year that will be the problem. It's potentially spending that much on him in 3-5 years, when he will be well into his mid 30's, that is (turns 32 at the end of this month). You already know that, though.

[logan82]

We also saw comments on how the Suppan deal wouldn't hurt us much because we would have young cost controlled guys coning up.