How would you go for it next year?

[jwill535]

You also need to remember that what ever team Prince is traded to, they are more then likely insist the Brewers pick up half, if not more of his salary(Dodgers being a guarantee to require it).

[igor67]

I was looking at Ryan Ludwick and he or a player like him I think would be the key to making this work. Solid bat and very good OF defense. I think Corey is the better bet to be a good 1st basemen, but figure out away to get Ludwick, slot Gamel in at third and see what Prince brings. I see only a modest drop off in offense (and Cain, Lucroy, Escobar, and Gamel is a lot more potential upside) with defensive improvements at 3 or 4 positions (I'd argue for improvement from Escobar). Then I think there is a good chance of finding a pitcher or two for the rotation that would be good enough.

[Sage]

How would I go for it next year? I wouldn't. Were I to go for it, I can't think of a better way to do so than giffted1 outlined earlier in this thread. That is pretty much exactly how I would go about going for it. I'm going to lay out what I would actually do this offseason, though, not to compete next year.

 

First move: Fire Dougy M. & Co, as well as Ken Macha. Hire anyone as GM (I'd take any of Josh Byrnes, J.P. Riciardi, or (preferably) anyone in the Rays scouting department) and hire Pat Listach as the manager.

Next move: Trade Prince Fielder to the Boston Red Sox for Felix Doubront, Kyle Weiland, Anthony Rizzo, and Michael Almanzar.

Next move: Trade Casey McGehee to the Florida Marlins for Sean West.

Next move: Sign Melvin Mora to a 1-year deal worth around $2MM.

Next move: Sign Wes Helms to a 1-year deal worth around $1MM.

Next move: Call up Mat Gamel, Lorenzo Cain, and Jeremy Jeffress.

 

C: Jonathan Lucroy

1B: Mat Gamel

2B: Rickie Weeks

SS: Alcides Escobar

3B: Melvin Mora

LF: Ryan Braun

CF: Lorenzo Cain

RF: Corey Hart

 

Rotation:

1) Yovani Gallardo

2) Randy Wolf

3) Dave Bush

4) Sean West

5) Felix Doubront

 

Bullpen:

LRP - Jeremy Jeffress

LRP - Manny Parra

MRP - Zach Braddock

MRP - Kameron Loe

MRP - Todd Coffey

SU - LaTroy Hawkins

CL - John Axford

 

Bench:

Craig Counsell

Carlos Gomez

George Kottaras

Joe Inglett

Wes Helms

 

Weiland would be able to enter the rotation, probably, after the All-Star Break in 2011. That would allow us to shop Dave Bush and get a prospect or two in return. Rizzo would be able to take over at 1B in 2012, letting Gamel move either to 3B or RF, depending on whether we successfully move Corey Hart. Almanzar could be ready as early as 2013, allowing Gamel to then move to RF or be shopped. I'm sure Brett Lawrie could be ready after the All-Star Break in 2011, which would allow us to shop Rickie Weeks for a nice return. (My key to almost every move I make is keeping a strong farm system, and refreshing it with new waves of talent whenever possible.

[nate82]

If we have too much pitching in 2012, why are you majorly rushing Jake Odorizzi? He won't have pitched a AAA game by 2012.

 

Loney is awful, he is barely above replacement level, and will be grossly overpaid. That Prince trade is awful. Kyle Russel is 2 years older than Caleb Gindl, and has just a 605 OPS in the same league. Taylor Green would be barely above replacement level at 3B, and Gamel will be a terrible defense OF. I see a 70 win team, if Pineda develops as we both hope he will. I guess that better than the 60 win team they'd be in 2011.

Going from AA to the Majors isn't that big of a jump and it isn't any bigger than going from AAA to the Majors if anything it is about equal. If Odorizzi can get batters out in AA he will get batters out in the Majors I still believe that the talent level in AA is better than that in AAA. Russell is basically the throw in guy in the Prince deal you are not going to get all top prospects in return for Prince.

 

If you take Loney out of the NL West he should add about 60-80 points of OPS. Gamel will be fine in the OF he is athletic enough to play out there and his major problem his arm will not be as much of a problem in the OF as it would be at 3B. At worst Gamel would be like Hart in the OF. Along with the Prince trade the Brewers are getting Gould and Elbert in the deal both of whom are top pitching prospects in the Dodgers system. If the Brewers really wanted to they could switch Russell for someone like Jonathan Garcia who is more of a project than anything else. So Russell is having one bad year? That makes him a bad player to receive in a Prince deal as a throw in?

 

Pineda has developed about as much as he is going to develop and he is MLB ready. The only real question is will he be a #1 #2 or an ace?

[TooLiveBrew]

If you take Loney out of the NL West he should add about 60-80 points of OPS.

This seems vastly overstated. Three of the five parks are definite pitchers' parks, but the other two (ARZ, COL) play pretty strongly as hitters' parks. Without being argumentative, I'll ask if you can produce a pattern of player improvement that backs up the speculated addition of 60-80 OPS points for Loney leaving the NL West. Not one of Matt Holiday, Orlando Hudson, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Juan Pierre, Garret Atkins, Jody Gerut, or Khalil Greene has seen any kind of noticeable improvement (sorry, those are just the handful of guys I could think of). I'm not definitely certain your claim is wrong, but it just seems like one based on an assumption.

[nate82]

If you take Loney out of the NL West he should add about 60-80 points of OPS.

This seems vastly overstated. Three of the five parks are definite pitchers' parks, but the other two (ARZ, COL) play pretty strongly as hitters' parks. Without being argumentative, I'll ask if you can produce a pattern of player improvement that backs up the speculated addition of 60-80 OPS points for Loney leaving the NL West. Not one of Matt Holiday, Orlando Hudson, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Juan Pierre, Garret Atkins, Jody Gerut, or Khalil Greene has seen any kind of noticeable improvement (sorry, those are just the handful of guys I could think of). I'm not definitely certain your claim is wrong, but it just seems like one based on an assumption.

Only Holiday is really a power hitter and comparable to Loney. Plus Loney is playing the majority of his games in a pitchers park. If Loney would play the majority of his games at a neutral to hitter friendly park in Miller Park his numbers would increase. Maybe the 60-80 points of OPS is overly optimistic but I wouldn't be surprised if he did add that many points to his OPS. Even if Loney only adds 50 points of OPS he would be a 800 OPS hitter while not great it isn't awful either. It is not like the Brewers would need another player who would be hitting in the 900 OPS range. The Brewers would have enough power with Braun and Gamel in the lineup along with Weeks who can give you another 800 OPS type of player. So you would have a low OPS in Escobar, Green, Cain, and from the catcher spot. Just look at the Padres this year they are not doing it with all high OPS players. Really the only high OPS player is Gonzalez so you don't need a lot of high OPS type of players to win if you can get good pitching and defense also.

[wishicouldhit]

The only chance of making the playoff again is if we keep prince and sign Cliff Lee (if he wants to come here). Otherwise DM shouldn't make any move that will impede 2012 and 2013. Here is what i would consider. If the goal was to get to .500, DM needs to bring 2 better pitcher than Wolf and have parra and Narverson battle for the 5th spot

Trade Hart for a potential # 3

Call up Gamel RF or 1B and Cain

 

C Lucroy

1B Fielder (Lawrie in waiting)

2B Weeks, extend him for 3/4 yr

3B McGehee

SS Escobar

 

RF Gamel

LF Braun

CF Cain

 

INF Farris, Inglett

OF Gomez, katin

C Kottaras

 

Bullpen

CL Axford

SU Braddock

RP Loe

RP Hawkins

RP Coffee

 

5th starter and 2 Long RP

Parra, Narveson, Villanueva

 

starters

Gallardo

Hart's acquisition

Free agent

Wolf

 

Manager- Don Money

GM Doug Melvin

I figure the payroll to be $52 mil before harts acquisition and the free agent.

If dreams came true, cliff lee would sign here for 20-22 mil/yr. More realistically we can get Lilly or Webb

[bill hAll Star]

If you take Loney out of the NL West he should add about 60-80 points of OPS.

This seems vastly overstated. Three of the five parks are definite pitchers' parks, but the other two (ARZ, COL) play pretty strongly as hitters' parks. Without being argumentative, I'll ask if you can produce a pattern of player improvement that backs up the speculated addition of 60-80 OPS points for Loney leaving the NL West. Not one of Matt Holiday, Orlando Hudson, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Juan Pierre, Garret Atkins, Jody Gerut, or Khalil Greene has seen any kind of noticeable improvement (sorry, those are just the handful of guys I could think of). I'm not definitely certain your claim is wrong, but it just seems like one based on an assumption.

Don't disagree with you at all but I may take Kouzmanoff off (lulz) that list because he goes to Safeco 10-ish times and plays home games at the Coliseum. After that you've got Anaheim which I believe plays pretty neutral? And Texas, which is a bandbox, no doubt.

[Baldkin]

This is why they make OPS+... it's park adjusted.

 

Loney's OPS+ this year is 109, so he's just a tad above league average... and just a teeny bit below league average for a 1B.

[logan82]

How would I go for it next year? I wouldn't. I would aim towards 2012 and beyond.

[endaround]

This is why they make OPS+... it's park adjusted.

 

Loney's OPS+ this year is 109, so he's just a tad above league average... and just a teeny bit below league average for a 1B.

Yep, he has a below average bat this year, one of his best years, and is average at best with the glove. He's likely going to get $5-6m in arbitration next year.

[paul253]

The signing of Corey Hart upsets me a little bit. It's not that I don't think he's a good player. But we can't keep making little tweaks to this roster and expect it to be 2008 all over again. There is no home-grown pitching available for next year. That means if there is going to be any improvement, it has to come from free agency or trades. The free agency crop is underwhelming. If they got Cliff Lee, great, but the Yankees want Lee so the Yankees will get Lee. Corey Hart, if he continues to have a solid season, would have been able to bring back at least one good pitching prospect I think. We have two prospects in Cain and Gamel that could have replaced him. I just don't understand the move. Now this means Prince Fielder has to be traded, otherwise the 2011 Brewers will be no different than the 2010 Brewers. Might as well re-sign Dave Bush while we're at it.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yep, he has a below average bat this year, one of his best years, and is average at best with the glove. He's likely going to get $5-6m in arbitration next year.

 

This is way too simplistic, though. His career road OPS is .869, which this season would be good for roughly a 130 OPS+ away from Dodger Stadium. Fielder's OPS+ this season as of today is 140. Loney might not be a 130 OPS+ true talent, but Dodger Stadium has killed his production thus far in his career (.725 home OPS).

[jackalope02ca]

I'd sign Melvin and Ash to extensions. I'd sign Corey Hart to an extension if it could be done at market value without overpaying. I think salaries will take a dip this year in free agency after the top tier guys have signed. I also expect there to be fairly valuable pitchers with big contracts available for cheap as long as we were willing to take on the salary. I'd wait to see how that played out and trade for one as I see a few more Arizona situations arising over the winter. I'd release Angel Salome and let him get a fresh start somewhere else. I'd trade Jeffress wherever I could get some value to get rid of that headache, same would go for Gomez. I'd promote Cain to take Gomez's place. I'd trade Parra to Kansas City. Isn't that where all disappointments go? I'd offer Prince around but unless I get a king's ransom I'd hold onto him at least until the trade deadline next year.

[ramssuperbowl99]

First off, something we need to consider is the contracts we will be on the hook for:

Jeff Suppan - $2M buyout

Randy Wolf - $9.5 M

Trevor Hoffman - $500k buyout

Corey Hart - $6.5 M

David Riske - $250k buyout

Doug Davis - $1M buyout

Latroy Hawkins - $4M

Gregg Zaun - $250k buyout

Ryan Braun - $4M

Yovani Gallardo - $3.25M

Something worth noticing here, nearly everything I listed was a bad contract or buyout. The only exceptions are Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, and Yovani Gallardo. Notice the trend? Homegrown players. We need to focus on developing home grown talent. Still, not a completely horrible bunch.

Dead Money Coming off the Books from 2010 to 2011:

Jeff Suppan - $12.5 M (YES!!!)

Bill Hall - $7.15 M

David Riske $4.5 M

This is where we make bank - we have more than $20M fresh in our pockets and we lost nothing off the MLB roster.

Arbitration Cases in 2011:

Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Dave Bush, Todd Coffey, Jody Gerut, Carlos Gomez, Carlos Villanueva, Manny Parra

Of these, I would recommend signing Weeks to a long term extension of roughly 4 years, trading Fielder, signing Coffey for roughly $2.5-3 M, signing Parra for roughly $1-2 M, and non-tending the rest. Exactly who we trade Fielder for and the exact numbers on the Weeks extension aren't known, but I'm guessing that at least Weeks should fetch 4 years/$35 M ($6 M, $8 M, $10M, $11M). As for Fielder, I just won't include those prospects until we know them. However, I am assuming Jeffress will be brought up as a reliever, since he is moving through the system so quickly and is likely to get a September cup of coffee. Cain was promoted, and should be the starting CF in 2011. I'm also bringing up Gamel as a full time 1B, where he is now getting repeated ABs in Nashville.

Further, it appears that Mark Rogers, Wily Peralta, Cody Scarpetta, and perhaps Kyle Heckathorn will be ready by 2012. Rogers likely by Opening Day, the others more likely by midseason. Lawrie will be ready for the bigs sometime in late 2011, and could play 2B, 3B or RF. Therefore, since these guys will start to get expensive 3 years from 2012 (that is, 2015), with Escobar and Lucroy getting expensive sometime around 2013, it might be best to give out nothing more than a 3 year deal. Salary doesn't appear to be a problem, as the sheer volume of non-tenders and expiring dead money gives us at least $30 M to work with, so why not go out and grab Javier Vazquez and maybe a Rich Harden type? Optimally, they are still pitching well enough through 2012 that they aren't a liability, but even if they are, we have the arms to replace them and no gigantic payroll concerns at that point. Finally, with the gigantic amount of bullpen arms we will have homegrown between the above 4 that are listed (Axford, Braddock, Jeffress, Rivas, Thornbug/Nelson/Miller from this draft, etc. etc.) means it is overwhelmingly likely we won't have to pay mediocre relievers like LaTroy Hawkins and Tevor Hoffman $4 M and $8 M.

I wasn't able to put together a team that I would feel good about making the playoffs for 2011 without doing a videogame offseason and burning the system up. So, I think we need to shoot for 2012. Escobar, Lawrie, Lucroy, Braun, Gallardo, Hart, Gamel, Rogers, Braddock, Axford, Cain, Parra, McGehee and hopefully Weeks is an awesome place to start. If those prospects continue developing we could have a special group again in Milwaukee, and this time, we will have enough arms to make pitching a strength instead of a weakness.

[jwill535]

Like I said, you should probably factor in 7-8 mil for next year, since what ever team trades for Prince is going to demand this.

[RockCoCougars]

Like I said, you should probably factor in 7-8 mil for next year, since what ever team trades for Prince is going to demand this.

I can assure you that Fielder won't be traded if the Brewers are required to pick up one red cent of salary. That would be the height of stupidity.

 

EDITED: Unless a guy like Josh Johnson, Greinke, or one of the Tampa Bay studs (not Wade Davis) is on the other end of the deal.

[jwill535]

If they are getting back a trade similar to the Carlos Lee trade, then no, they will not have to pick that much, if any. If they are getting more of a prospect laden trade, then yes, you can bet those teams are going to ask the Brewers to eat some of that salary. If he goes to the Dodgers, you can guarantee that.

[Invader3K]

If they have to pay half his salary to get a couple top prospects, I don't really see that being a huge issue. They are paying Suppan to pitch for the Cardinals this year and Hall to play for the Red Sox (in exchange for one marginal minor league pitcher, essentially). Much better to pay part of Prince Fielder's salary next year for premium young talent.

[RockCoCougars]

The Brewers would never take that PR hit. 'You traded Prince for who?', and 'You paid his salary too?'. It would even be worse if it was a bigger market team. Again, I ask, if a team is unwilling to basically acquire Prince and give him a one year deal at a reasonable rate without demanding salary relief, who is going to give him the huge contract that he's seeking? I'd rather keep him, see how the market pans out and take the high draft picks if he leaves. This team cannot afford to be paying guys to play for other teams (Suppan being the rare exception because he was a monumental mistake and was killing the team, giving Hall away was a blunder).

[travisteck]

The Brewers would never take that PR hit. 'You traded Prince for who?', and 'You paid his salary too?'. It would even be worse if it was a bigger market team. Again, I ask, if a team is unwilling to basically acquire Prince and give him a one year deal at a reasonable rate without demanding salary relief, who is going to give him the huge contract that he's seeking? I'd rather let him go, see how the market pans out and take the high draft picks if he leaves. This team cannot afford to be paying guys to play for other teams (Suppan being the rare exception because he was a monumental mistake and was killing the team, giving Hall away was a blunder).

I don't think it would really be that big of a "PR Hit" as you think it will. To be honest, I don't think casual fans would care one bit if he got traded and we had to pay some of his salary, as long as there are some prospects in the deal that are GREAT, or we're getting some major league ready young pitching (which is probably doubtful, I know.) I wouldn't want the crew to take any more than half, and I'd prefer something like 3 million, but if it means getting more prospects that the media and the organization can hype up to the fans, great.

[dadofandrew]

They could pay $2-4M if it got them better prospect(s). They won't worry about the PR hit, most fans won't even know/care.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, exactly. I think even most casual fans know how desperately this team needs starting pitching. Most people celebrated when we ate $12 million on Suppan's contract (or whatever the total was). They won't care if the Brewers pay a few million in a trade that sends a guy many are starting to regard as selfish and greedy (hate to say it, but that is the perception I think is out there regarding Prince at this point), assuming we get a quality return.

[Weirdos19]

Here's my ideas for 2011 and beyond:

 

1. Trade Prince to Tampa for Hellickson and Zobrist.

2. Trade McGehee, Parra, and Odorizzi to KC for Grienke

3. Non Tender Coffey and Narveson

 

Rotation: Yo, Grienke, Hellickson, Wolf, and Bush

Pen: Axford, Jeffress, Braddock, Hawkins, Loe, and Stetter (or a FA)

Lineup: Escobar (SS), Cain (CF), Hart (1B), Braun (LF), Weeks (2B), Zobrist (RF/3B), Gamel (3B/RF), Lucroy ©

Bench; Gomez, Dickerson, Kotteras, Counsell, and a FA with power

[paul253]

I highly doubt we'd be able to get Greinke for Parra McGehee and Odorizzi. You're offering a decent ML third basemen, an underachieving starting pitcher, and an A baller. I also doubt we'd be able to get Hellickson for anyone we offer. I'm all for acquiring Greinke if he becomes available, but its going to take a lot.