How would you go for it next year?

[igor67]

Since the rumors are pretty cold, and there appears to be a nonzero chance Prince and Hart will be around for awhile. I put forward the simple challenge how do you retool for next year to give the team a good shot at the playoffs? Ground rules: 1) you can make 2 smaller deals before this deadline, but they can't involve Hart or Prince. 2) Payroll has to be 90 million or under for next year. 3) You can make other trades, but may only deal 1 of Prince or Hart in the offseason (don't have to deal either).

 

Please note that this doesn't imply I think this is the best strategy. I'm interested in trying to see how this could play out, so try to refrain from simple I don't think that will work comments.

[monty57]

The best chance to go for it next year just got traded to the Angels.

 

That said, if I'm going for it next year here's what I do (Editor's note: I absolutely would not do this in any real life situation)

 

Trade whatever prospects it takes to get Zack Grienke (Lawrie, Odorizzi, whatever).

Sign Cliff Lee to a $20+MM / year deal (outbid the Yankees... we'll have the money next year)

Trade Coffey and Hawkins for salary relief of $7MM

 

That will give us a rotation of Lee $23MM, Grienke $13.5MM, Yo $3.25MM, Wolf $9.5MM, Parra $1MM

 

Total starting pitchers $50.25

 

1B Fielder $15MM

2B Weeks $5MM

SS Escobar $.4MM

3B McGehee/Gamel $.4MM

LF Braun $4MM

CF Cain $.4MM

RF Hart $7.5MM

C Lucroy $.4

 

Total Position players $33.1MM

 

C Kottaras $.4

Bench Gamel/McGehee $.4

Bench Minor vet middle infielder pickup (or re-sign Counsell at a discount) $1.5MM

Bench Gomez $1.5MM

Bench Lawrie (or if traded to get Grienke then Katin) $.4MM

 

Total bench $4.2MM

 

Closer Axford $.4

Relief Braddock $.4

Relief Loe $.4

Relief Rogers $.4MM

Relief Jeffress $.4

Relief Rivas or someone else from minors $.4MM

Relief Narveson $.4MM

 

Total bullpen $2.8MM

 

That puts me around $90.35MM. Then when the season's done, you lose Fielder, Weeks and Hart, you've used service time in the bullpen/bench for some of your best prospects, and you're stuck with Cliff Lee's albatross contract for about six years. You also would've traded some good prospects to get Grienke, so you'd probably better trade him after 2011 to re-coup some young talent, as he'd be a FA after 2012.

[igor67]

There are some interesting ideas in there. I also tend to agree that Haren at the price he went for would have made this idea more doable. I think the rotation has enough strikeout guys to make a difference over the defense, but I'd be concerned about the bullpen with 3 rookies, two of whom have control concerns.

[nate82]

Off Season moves:

 

Prince to the Dodgers for Loney, Scott Elbert, Garret Gould, and Kyle Russell. (OK that is probably way to much for Prince)

 

Lawrie/Gamel to the Mariners for Pineda.

 

OK maybe this won't get the Brewers in the playoffs next year but it will be a start for 2012. You can plug Loney at 1B for the time being and when his contract is up you can then slide Braun in to play at 1B. Pineda would be able to step into the rotation next year but the year the Brewers would benefit from all of these moves would be in 2012 when Odorizzi and others will be in Milwaukee.

 

In 2012 you could have a rotation of Gallardo, Pineda, Rivas, Odorizzi, Scarpetta/Butler/Arnett/etc.

[JohnBriggs12]

I trade Manny Parra, Todd Coffey and Cody Scarpetta to the D-Backs for Edwin Jackson ($8.35 million in 11) this week.

 

I sign Jake Westbrook to a 2yr/$13 million deal ($6.5 in 11) in the offseason.

 

My rotation is: Gallardo ($2.35), Wolf ($9.5), Jackson ($8.35), Westbrook ($6.5) and Narveson (0.6).

 

That's $17.8 million total for rotation.

 

For the bullpen, I'd add a lefty (say Will Ohman) for about $1.5 million. My pen would look like:

 

Axford ($0.6), Hawkins ($4), Loe ($1.3). Villanueva ($1.3), Braddock ($0.5), Ohman (1.5), Rivas (0.4).

 

That's $9.6 million for the bullpen.

 

My OF would be Braun ($4 million), Cain (0.4), Hart ($8.5), Gomez ($2.0) and assuming Edmonds retires: Eric Hinske ($2.5).

 

That's $17.4 million for the OF.

 

Infield is: McGehee (0.7), Escobar (0.5), Weeks (7.5), Fielder (14.5). Backups are Counsell (1.2) and Farris (0.4).

 

Infield total is $24.8 million.

 

Catchers are Lucroy (0.5) and Kottaras (0.6).

 

That's a total of 1.1 million for catchers.

 

My total payroll for my 25 man roster is $70.7 million. If I do trade, it will be Fielder but only if a major league ready starting pitcher is part of the package in return. That would negate the need to sign Westbrook. To replace Fielder, I'd sign Lance Berkman to a 2 year with option deal for around $9 million per year.

[paul253]

JB why would you put Rivas in the bullpen? I'd let him start in Nashville and depending on his rate of success, he'd be the first option for an ineffective or injured starter. It seems useless to have him pitch out of the bullpen.

[igor67]

My bigger concern is that looking at the secondary states on Westbrook and Jackson really suggests that in front of the Brewers defense they post similar numbers to Parra and Bush. And unless we get a bunch of real top level starters I think that the defense will continue to make everyone look bad.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

bottom line, Doug Melvin completely whiffed on Dan Haren. Absolutely no excuse for us not aquiring Dan and his extremely team friendly contract. The only way we couldn't beat the Angels offer is to have an incompetant GM, which unfortunately we do.

 

As noted above, our team will be nothing unless we can add atleast one more elite pitcher (Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, Dan Haren, etc...) everything else is window dressing

[logan82]

bottom line, Doug Melvin completely whiffed on Dan Haren. Absolutely no excuse for us not aquiring Dan and his extremely team friendly contract.

 

Other than Haren not wanting to come here of course.

[paulmolitor4]

bottom line, Doug Melvin completely whiffed on Dan Haren. Absolutely no excuse for us not aquiring Dan and his extremely team friendly contract.

 

Other than Haren not wanting to come here of course.

But Haren was willing to come to Milwaukee on my MLB The Show game...

 

 

[endaround]

bottom line, Doug Melvin completely whiffed on Dan Haren. Absolutely no excuse for us not aquiring Dan and his extremely team friendly contract.

 

Other than Haren not wanting to come here of course.

And the fact the DBacks wanted a major league pitcher in return with years remaining before FA

[nate82]

bottom line, Doug Melvin completely whiffed on Dan Haren. Absolutely no excuse for us not aquiring Dan and his extremely team friendly contract. The only way we couldn't beat the Angels offer is to have an incompetant GM, which unfortunately we do.

And there have been reports that there were two other deals that the Dbacks could have accepted besides the one that the Angels offered. You are also forgetting that Haren had a no trade clause to certain teams which were unknown and I am going to guess that Milwaukee was one of the teams on his list. So your analysis of the situation is completely off base.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

And there have been reports that there were two other deals that the Dbacks could have accepted besides the one that the Angels offered. You are also forgetting that Haren had a no trade clause to certain teams which were unknown and I am going to guess that Milwaukee was one of the teams on his list. So your analysis of the situation is completely off base

We just simply disagree. I think most GMs don't want to deal with Melvin because Melvin seems very unmotivated to take any chances to get above mediocre. With most trades, particularily deadline deals, teams sacrifice short term for higher ceiling players to get better long term. Melvin doesn't understand this concept and talks about wanting to have top-end MLB ready talent now. Why would anyone trade for our all-star (but expensive talent), if they have younger, cheaper, and as solid talent already?

 

Melvin was a big upgrade above Dean Taylor or Sal Bando, but we will never be a winning organization with such a mediocre GM who is content with 75 wins and not taking chances that give you a good opportunity to be successful

[monty57]

As noted above, our team will be nothing unless we can add atleast one more elite pitcher (Cliff Lee, Zach Greinke, Dan Haren, etc...) everything else is window dressing

 

In my post above I was trying to show that going for it all next year would probably be really bad for the future of the franchise. I'd love to get another top of the rotation guy to go along with Yo, but going all in for 2011 would probably not be a good idea.

 

Even if we offered Cliff Lee 6 years / $138MM, the Yankees would offer him 6 years / $150MM. They are rumored to want him (and possibly Carl Crawford) really bad, so signing him would be crippling to the Brewers. Zach Grienke is only signed for two more years, so trading some of our best prospects to get him would only help us for one or two years, and then hurt us after that. I've lobbied for Haren since someone put up a thread in the Trade Forum section that he was available. However, as noted by others, Dan Haren had a no trade clause, and the Brewers were probably not an option for the Diamondbacks.

 

If we're realistically looking at what we should do prior to next season, I'd completely change what I posted above. We need to trade Fielder and Hart. I'd look for a young guy who could fit into the rotation next year and higher ceiling guys (pitchers and hitters) who are not yet "MLB ready." I'd try to sign Dunn or Konerko to play 1B. I'd move Gamel to RF right now so that he gets some experience and hopefully can play the position on the Brewers next year. I'd also try to extend Rickie Weeks for a couple years and Lucroy to a Braun-type deal.

 

1B Dunn, 2B Weeks, SS Escobar, 3B McGehee, LF Braun, CF Cain, RF Gamel, C Lucroy

Bench: Gomez, Kottaras, Katin, Counsell, some other utility guy like Inglett

 

I think this offense could be as good as our current offense. Dunn should come close to Fielder's numbers, while Braun hitting closer to his norms and a year's experience under Escobar & Lucroy should make up for Hart's hot season.

 

If he could be had for a reasonable price/length, I'd try to sign Javier Vazquez, who is a high K pitcher having a so-so year with the Yankees, so he may be a bit under the radar. He's in his mid-30's, so I wouldn't sign him for too long.

 

SP Yo, Vazquez, {guy from Fielder/Hart trade}, Wolf, Parra/Rivas/Rogers/Narveson

 

Relief: Axford, Braddock, Loe, Coffey, Hawkins, Parra/Narveson, Rogers (I believe Rogers has to be on the Brewers next year or we lose him, so if he isn't a starter, he could be in the pen)

 

Not as sexy as the team I put together in my first post, but much more realistic. If we added Dunn/Konerko and Vazquez along with the guys from the Fielder & Hart trades, I think we could still be a competitive team without sacrificing our future.

[igor67]

Monty I like your approach though I still worry about the defense is their another 3rd base option that would help out the IF? If the rumored Texas proposals are close that could be a pretty good plan of attack.

[monty57]

Monty I like your approach though I still worry about the defense is their another 3rd base option that would help out the IF? If the rumored Texas proposals are close that could be a pretty good plan of attack.

That's why I like the high K Vazquez :-)

 

If Escobar can live up to his potential, then I think Casey's not that terrible an option at 3B. He makes all the plays he gets to... he just has bad range. Escobar is supposed to be a super-range SS, which should make up for Casey's lack of range. Cain should be decent in CF, and shouldn't really be a downgrade from this season. Gamel needs to get playing RF ASAP if that's where they want him. Dunn would make a big target but he's not a good fielder. He's replacing Prince so it could be a wash.

 

That said, the group I put together would probably be about even with this year's defense, and we're pretty bad. I'm always up for any way to improve. We could sacrifice some offense and sign Derrick Lee for 1B. That would definitely help our IF defense, but he's hitting like Bill Hall this year. We could also look for a different RF, but then what do we do with Gamel?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I think the best thing we can do (in the next two months) is get rid of Melvin...

 

We have some solid talent to maybe trade (Weeks, Fielder, and Hart), and we desperately need some young arms. We aren't going to get a sure thing in those trades (nobody trades the Strausburgs of the world), but we need an assortment of AA arms that should help give us a decent window in 2012-2014. Melvin has shown ZERO ability (outside of the CC trade) to acquire above average pitching via trade.

 

We have money to spend in this offseason. We can either try and bring in premium talent to go with our pre-arby players, we can try and resign our own premium talent, or we can look at FA. I think spending money on middle tier FAs is frankly a major waste of money. Melvin has failed miserably with virtually every free agent signing during his career with the Brewers. He has found us some average players (that cost us nothing), and the result has been to go from a 60-65 win team (mid 2000s) to a 75-80 win team (late 2000s). We need pitching. Melvin has failed for almost a decade to get us pitching.

 

It is possible, maybe even 50% likely that a new GM would be worse than Melvin, but i have zero confidence in his ability right now to improve this team. The fans want to win, the fans have packed MP. Mark A wants to win, and he's been willing to spend ($90M payroll). Simply put, the Brewers have succeeded in becoming an average franchise (thanks largely to Melvin), but we need someone else, someone with more ability to take us to the next level.

 

End Rant

[The Truth]

I think the best thing we can do (in the next two months) is get rid of Melvin...

 

Agreed. And Macha

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I would agree with those that say we should NOT be going for it in 2011. I would add that since we are a below average team in 2010, if we are not going to resign Weeks, Hart, and Fielder, the correct play would be to maximize their value and get players that will help us in 2012 and beyond when we are "going for it". If this means we get top talent that is 1-2 years away from MLB ready, so be it. Melvin's insistance on getting "MLB ready talent" is what makes me have zero confidence in him to get a good return on our talent that we have the option to trade away to improve our team long term

 

Not going for it full speed (we clearly aren't right now), yet not using our assets right now who will not be a part of our next wave of going for it is classic one foot in, one foot out Melvin. He's be perfect to rebuild the Pirates. I seem to know a retired GM with Janesvilles ties who led another small market franchise to greatness, and I'd imagine he might be willing to give us 3-5 years to take our beloved Brewers to greatness.

 

Off topic- i will admit that Weeks has had an outstanding year and has achieved a performance level (and relatively good health) that i never thought he'd reach, so Melvin knows better than me on that one.

[paul253]

I would not sign any big money free agents for 2011. It looks like there are a lot of good starting pitchers on the market the year after next, and if we save some money we could sign a good one to complement the young pitchers we hopefully have coming into the rotation in 2012. FA's include Buehrle, Carpenter, Wainwright, Wang, Edwin Jackson, Jeff Francis, and a few other guys that could opt out of contracts. I don't want to spend a ton just to play .500 ball next season. Hopefully the rotation is filled by trades of Fielder and Hart and those two are replaced by in house candidates like Gamel and Cain or cheaper free agents like maybe Derek Lee.

[monty57]

Just don't give D. Lee a no trade clause :-)

[giffted1]

Significant Off Season Moves:

 

Casey McGehee, Amaury Rivas, and Taylor Green to Florida for Ricky Nolasco (Will probably take more to net Nolasco, but he's a guy that could be had)

 

Sign Javier Vazquez 2 years $20m.

 

1B Fielder

2B Weeks

SS Escobar

3B Gamel

LF Braun

CF Cain

RF Hart

C Lucroy

 

SP1 Gallardo

SP2 Nolasco

SP3 Vazquez

SP4 Wolf

SP5 Parra

 

CL Axford

RP Braddock

RP Hawkins

RP Loe

RP Villanueva

RP Narveson

RP Valuable Bullpen Arm Melvin Gets For Nothing (Think Coffey, DiFelice, Torres, etc)

 

Bench

Katin

Gomez

Kottaras

Counsell

Valuable Bench Player Melvin Gets For Nothing (Think Edmonds, Kapler, Branyan, etc)

[nate82]

Maybe not going for it next year but here is another go around with it:

 

Sign Vazquez for 3-years $33m (year 3 is an option year with a team buyout at $1m)

 

Three team deal: Hart to the Giants, Sanchez and Parra to the Rangers, Font and PTBNL to the Brewers. (Extremely unrealistic but I can dream)

McGehee to the Angels for Tyler Chatwood and James Mallard. (Probably too much for McGehee probably would have to add something to that deal)

Prince to the Dodgers for Loney, Scott Elbert, Garret Gould, and Kyle Russell.

Lawrie to the Mariners for Pineda.

 

That gives the Brewers a really bad team in 2011 but a really good team in 2012 and 2013.

 

2012 lineup:

 

1B: Loney

2B: Weeks

3B: Green

SS: Escobar

LF: Braun

CF: Cain

RF: Gamel

C: Lucroy

 

Bench:

Inglett, Russell, Gomez, and Kottaras

 

SP: Gallardo, Vazquez, Pineda, Odorizzi, Wolf

Bullpen:

Axford, Braddock, Rivas, Butler, Rogers, Jeffress, Loe

 

2013 all you would have to do is put Mallard at 1B in replace of Loney or put Braun there. What is funny here the Brewers would have an excess of pitching that would be ready by 2012 and some hitters.

 

Book it World Series run in 2012 with that lineup and rotation.

[Never Outhustled]

Significant Off Season Moves:

 

Casey McGehee, Amaury Rivas, and Taylor Green to Florida for Ricky Nolasco (Will probably take more to net Nolasco, but he's a guy that could be had)

 

Sign Javier Vazquez 2 years $20m.

 

1B Fielder

2B Weeks

SS Escobar

3B Gamel

LF Braun

CF Cain

RF Hart

C Lucroy

 

SP1 Gallardo

SP2 Nolasco

SP3 Vazquez

SP4 Wolf

SP5 Parra

 

CL Axford

RP Braddock

RP Hawkins

RP Loe

RP Villanueva

RP Narveson

RP Valuable Bullpen Arm Melvin Gets For Nothing (Think Coffey, DiFelice, Torres, etc)

 

Bench

Katin

Gomez

Kottaras

Counsell

Valuable Bench Player Melvin Gets For Nothing (Think Edmonds, Kapler, Branyan, etc)

 

 

Thats a simple, and realistic plan that would improve the Brewers to at least a winning team, without risking anything towards the future.

 

Nolasco makes alot of sense, as he's becoming expensive for Florida, they have 4 other quality starters, they have youngsters who could replace Nolasco, and they need a cheap 3B. The lack of progress by 3B prospect Matt Dominguez really hurts them.

 

Your team will be even better than that, as you forgot Todd Coffey.

[Never Outhustled]

Maybe not going for it next year but here is another go around with it:

 

Sign Vazquez for 3-years $33m (year 3 is an option year with a team buyout at $1m)

 

Three team deal: Hart to the Giants, Sanchez and Parra to the Rangers, Font and PTBNL to the Brewers. (Extremely unrealistic but I can dream)

McGehee to the Angels for Tyler Chatwood and James Mallard. (Probably too much for McGehee probably would have to add something to that deal)

Prince to the Dodgers for Loney, Scott Elbert, Garret Gould, and Kyle Russell.

Lawrie to the Mariners for Pineda.

 

That gives the Brewers a really bad team in 2011 but a really good team in 2012 and 2013.

 

2012 lineup:

 

1B: Loney

2B: Weeks

3B: Green

SS: Escobar

LF: Braun

CF: Cain

RF: Gamel

C: Lucroy

 

Bench:

Inglett, Russell, Gomez, and Kottaras

 

SP: Gallardo, Vazquez, Pineda, Odorizzi, Wolf

Bullpen:

Axford, Braddock, Rivas, Butler, Rogers, Jeffress, Loe

 

2013 all you would have to do is put Mallard at 1B in replace of Loney or put Braun there. What is funny here the Brewers would have an excess of pitching that would be ready by 2012 and some hitters.

Book it World Series run in 2012 with that lineup and rotation.

 

 

If we have too much pitching in 2012, why are you majorly rushing Jake Odorizzi? He won't have pitched a AAA game by 2012.

 

Loney is awful, he is barely above replacement level, and will be grossly overpaid. That Prince trade is awful. Kyle Russel is 2 years older than Caleb Gindl, and has just a 605 OPS in the same league. Taylor Green would be barely above replacement level at 3B, and Gamel will be a terrible defense OF. I see a 70 win team, if Pineda develops as we both hope he will. I guess that better than the 60 win team they'd be in 2011.