Sheets, Spurling, Balfour, Parra - Latest: Partial Tear

[SoCalBrewfan]

A trade for a good, but not spectacular (above average) starter would not surprise me in the least, and I would love to see it.

 

As I said in the trade rumors forum, I could see a minor move for an inning-chewer like Jamey Wright or Kyle Lohse, but I don't expect they'd do that until they see how the new recruits respond.

[naivin]

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As I said in the trade rumors forum, I could see a minor move for an inning-chewer like Jamey Wright or Kyle Lohse, but I don't expect they'd do that until they see how the new recruits respond.

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I think your expectations are lower than mine...I was thinking more along the lines of a guy that helps address the Sheets absence (which a Wright or Lohse type would), but also done with an eye on making and winning in the post-season, which would require something more than that. I look at it this way - even if that pitcher is just a rental and you have to give up some value for him (I'll use John Graland as an example, even though that may be a bad one), even though you may be giving up some of the future in exchange, aren't you also protecting the future somewhat in that scenario because it allows you to limit innings on guys like Gallardo and Parra, which is obviously a priority, but also setting yourself up for success in the 2007 season? Its the type of move I think should probably be made anyway that would strengthen the rotation and bullpen for September and October, and the Sheets situation just provides another reason to do it.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

"And its not like Willis is anywhere near as good as Sheets anyway, he's a 4 ERA guy in a big park."

 

For his career, The D Train is a 3.61 ERA guy. This is his worst season, and he's been struggling with forearm tendonitis for the last few months. His contract's ending and he's also on the trading block, which doesn't help.

 

He's never been a 4 ERA guy up until the last few months, and he's been hurt.

 

"The only pitcher I think we'll get that can match his numbers is Gallardo personally. "

 

Gallardo can match Ben Sheets, already?

[Ennder]

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Gallardo can match Ben Sheets, already?

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He certainly has the potential to do it. Notice I didn't say he would or was a lock to, but I don't think we'll trade for a pitcher with the potential to do it and Gallardo is the only pitcher on the team with that potential.

 

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For his career, The D Train is a 3.61 ERA guy. This is his worst season, and he's been struggling with forearm tendonitis for the last few months. His contract's ending and he's also on the trading block, which doesn't help.

 

He's never been a 4 ERA guy up until the last few months, and he's been hurt

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Like I said, in a big park. Stick him in another park and his stats regress towards a 4.00 ERA. Here are his FIP's in his full seasons, 4.16, 3.17, 4.36, 5.00. His actual ERA's have been 4.02, 2.63, 3.87 and 4.81 in his full seasons. Willis is simply not an ace, he's Capuano playing in a big time pitchers park.

[gregmag]

Also he is a rookie and we have seen already that rookies are very up and down on the mound.

 

Does this really make any sense? Some rookies are just bad -- Hendrickson, Eveland. Some are very good -- Villy. Some are up and down -- Zach Jack. On the other hand, some veterans are way up and down -- Capuano, Bush, Suppan. I don't think you can make this sort of categorical statement about rookies.

Call up Dillard and give him a shot.

 

He can also catch in a pinch. Alternatively, I bet we could get Wayne Franklin back cheap.

 

Greg.

[panthernick]

I bet we could get Wayne Franklin back cheap.

Villenueva cheap?

[SoCalBrewfan]

This is his worst season, and he's been struggling with forearm tendonitis for the last few months.

 

Sounds like a perfect fit for Milwaukee. Acquiring him might also give fans another target for their wrath, and thus deflect some of the criticism that Sheets currently gets...

[pitchleague]

I haven't read the thread yet but I'll chime in on a bit of personal experience with the sprained finger/torn tissue.

 

When my wife and I returned from our trip to WI a few weeks ago, my left hand index finger was just killing me (presumably injured just from driving--no, I don't understand it either).

 

I went to the doctor and he took some pic's and an MRI and said I had some torn tissue in my 2nd knuckle of the finger (using layman's terms here--a doc would've used metatarsal or something, or is that the foot bones?) He prescribed an anti-inflammatory and rest.

 

I am into week 3 and the pain has subsided to the point that I can use the finger again, but everytime I bend that finger/clench my fist I can still feel discomfort in that joint. So, I'm sure it will probably take the full 5-6 weeks to completely heal.

 

If I was an MLB pitcher with this injury, I'd feel confident that I could go out there and pitch after 3 weeks of rest. But I'm not and I'd probably risk re-injury.

 

Just thought I'd throw this out there as I am experiencing the exact same thing as Sheets, only 1 finger over.

[SoCalBrewfan]

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.I was thinking more along the lines of a guy that helps address the Sheets absence (which a Wright or Lohse type would), but also done with an eye on making and winning in the post-season, which would require something more than that.

...

 

aren't you also protecting the future somewhat in that scenario because it allows you to limit innings on guys like Gallardo and Parra, which is obviously a priority, but also setting yourself up for success in the 2007 season?

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I would actually be pleased to see the team use some of its minor leaguers to pick up a pitcher. That, to me, is one of the key roles of a farm system...not only to fill holes on your team from within, but to provide attractive chits in the trade market. We've got depth, and pretty solid guys in the high minors whom we are unlikely to use in the near future: Gwynn, Jackson, Escobar, etc. And there's enough ammo in the system that I think you have to consider moving a top ten prospect if you can get a pitcher who is more than a rental...Inman isn't going anywhere, but you have to assume most other pitchers and any position player to be fair game in the right deal. (Maybe you exclude Salome since that's one spot where we don't have an established young player on the roster.)

 

My sense is that Melvin is less reluctant than many bf.netters to include prospects in deals if he can improve the team...Nelson Cruz and Dana Eveland come to mind.

[GenoSeligPrieb]

I don't enjoy the same baseball statistical resources everyone else has at their workplaces, so...

 

Aren't Dontrelle's ancillary numbers, like BA-against, K/BB ratio, OPS-against, etc. noticeably better than Capuano's? You'd have to think so.

 

D-Train's a very solid, youngish and heretofore durable SP, and these days, that's a rare commodity.

 

In an era when SoupCan gets $10.5 mil a year, Buehrle gets even more, and Zito gets more than that, I can see Willis being unaffordable for us to keep anyway, so it's a moot point...

[BillScottCanRake]

Aren't Dontrelle's ancillary numbers, like BA-against, K/BB ratio, OPS-against, etc. noticeably better than Capuano's? You'd have to think so.

 

Actually, they are pretty close.

 

I posted them a while back (maybe in the trade rumors forum), and if I get time I'll try to post them again.

 

Here they are:

 Willis K/9 BB/9 HR/9 OBA WHIP 2005 6.47 2.10 0.42 .243 1.14 2006 6.45 3.35 0.85 .274 1.42 2007 6.10 4.04 1.14 .285 1.58 Capuano K/9 BB/9 HR/9 OBA WHIP 2005 7.23 3.73 1.27 .256 1.38 2006 7.08 1.91 1.18 .265 1.24 2007 7.68 3.95 0.99 .279 1.54

[TooLiveBrew]

FWIW, Cappy's 2007 OPSA: - .784 ... ISPA: .154

 

Willis (2007): .809 ... ISPA: .168

 

 

EDIT: So, in my amatuer figurings, it appears that Cappy has been hit (semi-)frequently to league-avergae, but not very hard. For example, Prince Fielder's ISP this season is .332, which leads the NL. Miguel Cabrera is second in slugging, at .602, but with his much higher .326 BA, his ISP is lower, at .276. Ryan Howard's .314 ISP is 2d in MLB.

 

I don't know specifically how a .154 or a .168 ISP translates, but it seems pretty good. Jake Peavy's .060 ISPA is simply filthy, and Sheeter boasts a .153.

 

(Please correct any errors I've made)

[adambr2]

Surprisingly, there's numerous options for what to do for a starter with Sheets apparently out for an extended period of time. Here's mine:

 

A) Look for a good trading partner before the deadline, and get an established starter. Garland?

 

Bottom Line: The safest option to keep things rolling towards the playoffs, and you can never have too much starting pitching. But any trade that will bring in a quality starter may cost us quite a bit of talent.

 

B) Start Gallardo. Limiting his innings be damned.

 

Bottom Line: Gallardo is ready. But does the risk outweigh the reward here?

 

C) Start Parra. Keep Gallardo in the pen for now, to limit his innings.

 

Bottom Line: Parra has nothing left to prove in the minors. But he is completely untested at the MLB level.

 

D) Start Villanueva until at least Sheets' return.

 

Bottom Line: Villy is starting to put together a very respectable track record. Quality work in the pen this year, solid starts last year and one this year. But taking him out of the pen could end up backfiring and hurting the pen.

 

E) Spot-start, and give Gallardo, Parra, and Villanueva all a couple of starts.

 

Bottom Line: Wouldn't put a great deal of pressure on anyone this way, and would allow us to get some looks at all 3 starting. But the constant moving from a starting role to a long relief role might be a bad idea.

 

 

Personally, I'd try Parra first. If he busts in his first 2 starts, or significantly busts in his first one, go with Villanueva. I'd keep Gallardo in the pen as planned unless absolutely necessary. Have to keep the long term in mind.

 

 

Edited by: adambr2

[bork]

I think Gallardo is the best option and you can still limit his innings. He has about 12 starts left. He would have 3 starts in July, then the 5th starter is only needed 3 times in August. That still leaves 6 starts for September.

[homer]

Including the minors, Gallardo has about 106.1 innings so far this year. Worst case scenario has Sheets out 6 weeks which is what....at most 12 starts? Probably less but if Gallardo pitches 7 innings per 12 starts that's 84 innings which puts him at 190.1 - on the very upper threshold of what you want for him this year and probably too much. Not to mention that he is either shut down after Sheets returns or he goes over his innings cap. Neither would be good.

 

Of course, this assumes that Sheets is out six weeks and that Gallardo averages 7 innings - neither is a given.

 

I suppose you could swap in Villanueva here and there or later on in August to keep the Gallardo innings down. That might be the best option.

[TooLiveBrew]

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Gallardo is ready. But does the risk outweigh the reward here?

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IMHO, yes. I love the three-headed monster of Villy, YoGa, & Parra getting Sheet's missed starts. That's a heckuva lot better than the ZachJack/Eveland/others combo that made the Ohka & Sheets starts in 2006.

 

I'd imagine the workload would descend in the same order I listed the boys, with Villy getting the heaviest workload, & Parra getting the fewest total IP (he's got great value as a second LHP out of the pen)

 

EDIT: If Villy's got a similar innings limit (for example's sake, use 190 IP), that gives him roughly 125 more innings this year. I think between the three, the innings will be more than enough to cover the time Ben's out. However, it's obviously beneficial to everyone for that time to be as short as possible - especially Ben (as in, shortest time to heal, not rush him back)

[don1481]

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Bottom Line: Gallardo is ready. But does the risk outweigh the reward here?

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Absolutely not. As much as I agree that Gallardo is ready in terms of talent to be a major contributor, the issue really is that (as noted elsewhere) Gallardo could burn through the remainder of his "less-risky" innings in the rotation with Sheets out. As beaten to death in the Gallardo IP thread, pushing Yo beyond 180-190 could have long-term ramifications that could affect the team far beyond 2007.

 

I agree completely with the comment that they should start Parra initially for a couple of starts... and if he fails, put in Villy... and only if HE fails as a starter, then put in Yo. It'll at least buy the team a few more innings out of Yo's arm later in the season, rather than shutting him down sooner because of the risk of injury. Besides, the Brewers have had enough issues with young pitchers getting hurt over the years; do we really want Yo to be bagging groceries next to Neugebauer and Gold (among others) in a few years...?

 

Yo should be moved into the rotation down the "stretch run" replacing Vargas (assuming DM hasn't shipped Claudio out of town). Vargas already is at his best with the bases loaded, so why shouldn't he be swapped with Yo into middle relief?

[FVBrewerFan]

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agree completely with the comment that they should start Parra initially for a couple of starts... and if he fails, put in Villy... and only if HE fails as a starter, then put in Yo.

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I agree with giving Parra at least two starts. Does anyone know if HE is on a pitch limit this year, and if so how close he is to reaching it?

 

Plan B is Gallardo. If Parra starts 2-3 times that saves Gallardo some innings. Plus, there are five days off between now and the end of August. It would be possible to juggle the rotation to limit Gallardo's starts.

 

I wouldn't want to use Villy as a starter this year, why mess with what's working in the pen. He will be a starter or the closer next year, but too valuable in his role this year.

 

I really feel comfortable with that solution for Sheets. The problem is Cappy. What if he has two more god-awful starts? Would you not agree at some point he needs to be taken out of the rotation- at lest temporarily?

 

Best case scenerio, Parra pitches very well. Now when Sheets comes back you have 7 legit starters to choose from for the stretch run. 8 if you want to include Villy.

[Team Canada]

Does anyone know if HE is on a pitch limit this year, and if so how close he is to reaching it?

 

He's pitched 106 innings this year, and 86 the year before. He probably isn't due for a huge jump either although at least he's a little older and I imagine they don't have a real problem with him starting the rest of the year (if he leaves the bullpen or returns to AAA).

[FVBrewerFan]

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at least he's a little older and I imagine they don't have a real problem with him starting the rest of the year

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I understand, but coming back from arm surgery...maybe he's on a lower pitch limit?

[BillScottCanRake]

I agree with giving Parra at least two starts. Does anyone know if HE is on a pitch limit this year, and if so how close he is to reaching it?

 

Melvin said he is, but I have no idea what it is, as I haven't heard any number. I'd guess it might be more than the typical +25 innings from the previous year, but no more than 130-150 range, but that's just a guess.

[don1481]

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I wouldn't want to use Villy as a starter this year, why mess with what's working in the pen. He will be a starter or the closer next year, but too valuable in his role this year.

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I'd choose Villy over Gallardo at this point of the season solely because Villy's workload last year was quite a bit higher than Yo's, and having Villy "spot start" for a few starts and Yo in Villy's place (and Parra in Yo's place) in the interim would allow the Brewers to "save" Yo's innings in the rotation for when the stretch run/post-season.

 

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Best case scenerio, Parra pitches very well. Now when Sheets comes back you have 7 legit starters to choose from for the stretch run. 8 if you want to include Villy.

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Depends on how well Parra pitches and whether or not Capuano returns to his "good" self. If Parra is lights-out and Capuano has not rebounded, I'd contemplate swapping him into Capuano's spot (and Cappy to the pen), at least for a few starts. If he doesn't, then I'd contemplate putting Villy into the rotation as the #5 for a couple of starts (which *sigh* puts Vargas as the 4):

 

Sheets

Bush/Suppan

The other of Bush/Suppan

Vargas

Villy

 

And then for September:

 

Sheets

Bush/Suppan

The other of Bush/Suppan

Capuano (if he starts pitching well again)

Yo

 

And for the playoffs:

 

Sheets

Bush

Suppan

Yo/Cappy (depending potentially on matchups)

 

Yes, I said the "p" word. I'm not superstitious.

[steve267268]

Assuming Sheets DOES come back somewhat on time and is the same old Benny, then i say we ride the YoGa train until either A. He struggles mightily, or B. He hits his innings cap. We can't afford to give anything up right now. True, if we ration YoGa he will be able to pitch further into the season, but if we don't utilize perhaps the best pitcher on the team right now, there may not be much to play for later on anyway. Plus, i do trust Sheets much more in crunch time or in the playoffs than i would YoGa, so right as we get to that piont we can replace Sheets Lite with the real thing.

 

Bottom Line:

 

1. YoGa gets every fifth start filling in for Ben. No spot starts, no skipping him.

 

2. No relief role, either. He was meant to be a starter so let's not mess with that.

 

3. When he does hit his limit, then use CV as a guy you can spot start when needed. He can still pitch from the pen, too.

 

4. Sheets comes back in the last month of the season and if we can hammer out all of our bullpen issues by either trade or just plain improvement, we'll be looking very good. Pitching-wise, that is. Now if only Bill Hall could make a good recovery and Weeks figured it all out.