How much money comes off the books this offseason?

[PilprinBuddha]

I know we lose Hall and Suppan contracts. Who else is a FA or a bad contract we lose? Hawkins? Hoffman?

 

Fielder....if kept might get ?

Hart ...if kept might get?

Who else is Arby eligible that could have big jumps? Weeks? McGhee?

Gallardo and Braun get typical bumps as well.

 

My greater question is, what will be our projected net available cash if the above happens?

 

If this is laid out somewhere else please just direct me there....I thought I saw it somewhere.

[kramnoj]

Cot's is the best baseball contract site: http://mlbcontracts.blogs...1/milwaukee-brewers.html

 

I'm no expert on arbitration, but if the Brewers bring everybody that is currently under contract for next year or in arbitration, I see the Brewers at about $60M for next year. That is imprecise, I could easily be off a few mil.

 

So if the upper limit of payroll is around $90M, the Brewers could have up to $30M to spend this offseason, even keeping Prince and Hart. But there's not that much in pitching that will be available. I think most people would assume Cliff Lee goes to the Yankees. After that there is Javy Vazquez and Ted Lilly. Each of them could easily get 3-4 years at $10-15Mil. Or the Brewers could try to trade offense and sign offense with Werth or other options.

[endaround]

The Brewerfan.net salary page:

http://www.brewerfan.net/ViewTeamSalary.do?teamId=1

EDIT:Though I think it's wrong about Gerut and he's a FA at the end of the year.

[Outlander]

I didn't realize that they had so much flexibility. If they trade Fielder and Hart for minor league or minimum guys they are around $30 million if they fill the roster with minimum guys. Of course they will have to pay Weeks through arby or an extension and get a couple of starting pitchers.

[RockCoCougars]

Wow. Imagine..... if they get rid of more dead weight and trade Prince and Hart for prospects, they will have more than enough money to bid against themselves for another quality 'veteran' arm like Lilly, and they still can line up to pay Adam Dunn in excess of $15 million per.

[monty57]

From Brewerfan's salary page (and a couple from memory), the salaries we're losing:

 

Suppan $12.5MM

Hall $7.5MM (?? I think it's somewhere around this)

Dave Bush $4.215MM

Craig Counsell $2.1MM

Doug Davis $4.25MM (has $6.5MM option I doubt they exercise)

Jim Edmonds $0.85MM

Jody Gerut $2.0MM (has a year of arby left, but doubt he's offered)

Trevor Hoffman $7.5MM

Joe Inglett $0.416MM

Dave Riske $4.5MM (option for $4.5MM I doubt they exercise)

Gregg Zaun $1.9MM (option for $2.25MM I doubt they exercise)

 

So that's $47.731 coming off the books

 

We also are likely to trade:

 

Prince Fielder $10.5MM (one year of arby left)

Corey Hart $4.8MM (one year of arby left)

 

For another $15.3MM freed up

 

There is also the question mark of Carlos Gomez, currently getting paid $1.1MM with three years of arby left, but I won't include him here.

 

That's $63,031,000 of current salaries that probably won't be on the Brewers' books next year.

 

 

Now, barring other trades, here's what we'll have on the roster:

 

SP:

Yo Gallardo $3.25MM

Randy Wolf $9.5MM

Manny Parra est. $2.0MM (year one arby)

Chris Narveson $0.416MM

 

Relievers

John Axford $0.40

Zach Braddock $0.40

Todd Coffey est $3.00 (third year of arby, currently $2.025MM)

LaTroy Hawkins $4.00MM

Carlos Villanueva est $1.75MM (year two of arby, currently $0.95MM)

 

C: George Kottaras $0.408MM

C: Jon Lucroy $0.40MM

3B: Casey McGehee $0.427MM

SS: Alcides Escober $0.405MM

2B: Rickie Weeks est $4.5MM (year three of arby, currently $2.75MM)

CF: Lorenzo Cain $0.40MM

LF: Ryan Braun $4.0MM

4th OF Carlos Gomez $1.25MM (2nd of 4 years of arby, currently at $1.1MM

 

I'd guess we have around $35,256,000 under contract, with a need for a RF, 1B, 3-4 bench spots, 2-3 relievers and 1-3 SP (depending on how much we're counting on Narveson and Parra in the rotation). The only rookie I have listed above is Cain. We could probably fill our bullpen and some of the bench spots with minor leaguers, and could possibly bring Rivas or Rogers up to start and Gamel up for RF/1B. It's also likely that we will fill some of the 1B, RF, SP positions when/if Hart & Fielder are traded.

 

The way I look at it, depending on what we get back in the Hart/Fielder trades, we should have around $40,000,000 to find some combination of 1B/RF/SP and some bench help. Money is not going to be a problem... we just need some smart GMing.

 

The free cash, along with Hart, Fielder and Weeks being free agents after next season, is why I think the next eight months or so will be extremely important for the future of the Brewers.

[Roderick]

Don't forget to include team option buyouts in your budget.

 

Suppan $2M

Davis $1M

Hoffman $.5M

Zaun $.25M

Riske $? not sure if any

 

I do agree with Monty's list on the whole. I would put Loe right on the list of relievers with the league min salary. I think Weeks and Gomez are going to get more in arby than what you have.

 

But that is splitting hairs next to the big decisions on Fielder and Hart. I think one comes back next year as I can't see Melvin trading both away. What would Fielder and Hart get in arby - $14.25M and $7.25M, anyone?

[JohnBriggs12]

Cot's is the best baseball contract site: http://mlbcontracts.blogs...1/milwaukee-brewers.html

 

I'm no expert on arbitration, but if the Brewers bring everybody that is currently under contract for next year or in arbitration, I see the Brewers at about $60M for next year. That is imprecise, I could easily be off a few mil.

 

So if the upper limit of payroll is around $90M, the Brewers could have up to $30M to spend this offseason, even keeping Prince and Hart. But there's not that much in pitching that will be available. I think most people would assume Cliff Lee goes to the Yankees. After that there is Javy Vazquez and Ted Lilly. Each of them could easily get 3-4 years at $10-15Mil. Or the Brewers could try to trade offense and sign offense with Werth or other options.

I'm very skeptical about Lilly and Vazquez, who will both be 35 next year getting anywhere near those amounts. I wouldn't be interested in either if I'm Melvin. I'd be looking at AL right handers who might be had for bargain rates, who might improve in the NL, would be further removed from past medical issues, and who if they aren't doing well, you won't fret about dumping. Two guys in that category are Jake Westbrook and Jeremy Bonderman. I'd also gauge the Washburn situation.

 

But having salary room also gives you flexibility to trade for guys that other teams may need to dump to save money.

[kramnoj]

Derek Lowe got that money as a 36 year old before last year. Now, that's certainly a cautionary tale of why it's not good to do such a thing, but there were multiple teams that bid up Lowe's price.

 

As with anything in the market, it will be supply and demand that decide their contracts. Age will be a secondary factor.

[Patrick425]

I know this is being discussed in another thread, but if they do end up having a lot of "extra" money after contracts drop off and possible trades of Fielder or Hart, I would love to see them try to extend Weeks to a LT contract. I think the $4.5M estimate in an earlier post for his arby number is a bit on the low side. He is currently on pace for 100+ Runs and RBIs and 30+ HRs.

[JohnBriggs12]

Derek Lowe got that money as a 36 year old before last year. Now, that's certainly a cautionary tale of why it's not good to do such a thing, but there were multiple teams that bid up Lowe's price.

 

As with anything in the market, it will be supply and demand that decide their contracts. Age will be a secondary factor.

Speaking of older guys, an intriguing FA to be is Hiroki Kuroda. He'll be 36 next year but has shown no sign of slippage yet. As with most Dodger pitchers you have to check is home/road splits but they are about equal. He's had great success against the Cardinals (.179 BAA), Reds (.217 BAA) and Cubs (.204 BAA). That's a trifecta in my book. I think he may command a tad more than Lilly or Vazquez, but less than the $15 million he's making this year. If you could get him on a 2 year with an option, that might be worth exploring. Attanasio sure is aware of Dodgers and could have an in on another one.

[monty57]

I had a post made up that got eaten by Yuku, so I'll recap.

 

I assumed $5MM in pre-arby raises and option buyouts, making up for the difference in the $35MM on the books and assumed $80MM budget (no idea if that's what it'll be, but it's my guess). That's how I came up with around $40MM to spend.

 

I put $4.5MM for Weeks based on his current $2.75MM salary. He definitely will deserve more, but I think arby takes the previous year's salary heavily into consideration. I also hope they are able to work an extension. I don't care if they have Lawrie, as they'll find a spot for the two of them on the MLB roster. Weeks is a good player who should be able to be signed to a reasonable contract. He has also proven to be the main catalyst for this offense. The Brewers can use players like that. The fact that he's not in trade talks, while Fielder and Hart are leads me to believe they will at least try to extend him.

 

I purposely put Gomez low, as I don't know what they'll do with him. Are they willing to pay $2.0MM for a pinch runner/defensive replacement? They did it with Gerut this season, and will probably do it with Gomez next year, but I vindictively kept his 2011 salary low. He is only playing about 20% of the time, so maybe he won't get a big raise.

 

I can't believe I fogot Loe!! He is one of the few bright spots on the 2010 team, and should definitely be an inexpensive part of the 2011 bullpen.

[Polish Falcons]

Here is my best guess, I'm sure some high, some low, but somewhere in the mid $60's range including buyouts and Prince. $50 without Prince.

CONTRACTS

Hawkins 4.25

Braun 4.29

Gallardo 3.5

Wolf 9.5

 

ARBY

Prince 16.25

Hart 7

Weeks 5.75

Coffey 2.2

Villanueva 1.1

Parra 0.8

Gomez 2

Inglett 0.7

 

Pre-ARBY

Axe 0.42

McGehe 0.45

Lucroy 0.42

Braddock 0.42

Escobar 0.42

Narv-Dog 0.43

Kottaras 0.42

Gamel 0.42

Stetter 0.42

Cain 0.42

 

BUYOUTS

Trevor 0.5

Riske 0.25

Zaunbie 0.25

SOUP 2

 

FREE AGENT

Bush 0

Counsell 0

Gerut 0

Edmonds 0

 

GRAND TOTAL 64.58

 

total w/o Prince 48.33

[PilprinBuddha]

I would prefer to keep Hart and Fielder if we don't get quality starters in return. FA stinks for pitchers unless you get the cream of the crop. Those guys are not coming to MKE. we need to trade for up and coming guys or sign vet gambles like the Loopers of the world. The studs will only come via trade (not real likely) or the draft (far more likely, but painfully slow).

 

 

Matt Garza would look better today in exchange for Price or Hart, would't he?? Other than Gallardo, is there anyone on our staff that has anything near that possibility?

[jhart05]

Figures. Just the Brewers luck. They might actually have a good chunk of change to spend next year, but not any players worthy of earning that money.

[BrewersSuperCollector]

With a drop in attendence I see the Brewers with a payroll of 80 million.

[monty57]

Figures. Just the Brewers luck. They might actually have a good chunk of change to spend next year, but not any players worthy of earning that money.

One thing the free cash does is allow the Brewers to make a trade for a veteran who's under contract. If they eat the contract, they won't have to give up as much in talent. Or, they could trade for someone who is already into arbitration and possibly extend them.

 

It also allows them to go after one of the free agent 1B on the market to make up for the probable loss of Fielder in trade. Get some pitching for Fielder/Hart in trade and then sign someone like Dunn or Konerko so that our offense doesn't take quite as big of a hit.

 

One thing is for sure, having an excess amount of cash is generally not a bad thing. Now we just have to hope the front office doesn't blow it on a couple of Suppan-esque contracts. Barring some bad deals, we could have an excess to work with for a few sesaons before some of the "next crop" starts getting into arbitration (Escobar, Lucroy, Cain, Lawrie, Axford, Braddock, Rivas, Rogers, Loe and any MLB players we get from Hart/Fielder trades should all be around the same arby group). Hopefully, some of the excess cash will be used to sign some of these guys to Braun-style contracts early on, keeping us "cost controlled" for a long time.

[thebruce44]

With a drop in attendence I see the Brewers with a payroll of 80 million.

Not to mention, the new TV deal doesn't kick in until the following year. They seem to break even or make a slight profit at 3mil in attendance and a starting payroll of about $82 and an ending payroll in the high $80s. If they don't play well then they don't have to add pieces and can stick right around $80 mil, not loosing their shirts if attendance takes a hit to say 2.5 mil.

[Patrick425]

jhart05[/b]]Figures. Just the Brewers luck. They might actually have a good chunk of change to spend next year, but not any players worthy of earning that money.

Kind of reminds me of the situation that occurred after the 2000 season. The Brewers were hell spent on spending money during that off season regardless of how weak the market was. They showed very little restraint as they wanted to prove to the fans that they would do what it takes to build a winning team heading into the new stadium. So, they grossly overpaid for an oft-injured OF who had just come off a career year in hitter friendly Coors Field. Hopefully history will not repeat itself. Although some will say that it already has in the likes of Suppan.

 

 

 

[RockCoCougars]

jhart05[/b]]Figures. Just the Brewers luck. They might actually have a good chunk of change to spend next year, but not any players worthy of earning that money.

Kind of reminds me of the situation that occurred after the 2000 season. The Brewers were hell spent on spending money during that off season regardless of how weak the market was. They showed very little restraint as they wanted to prove to the fans that they would do what it takes to build a winning team heading into the new stadium. So, they grossly overpaid for an oft-injured OF who had just come off a career year in hitter friendly Coors Field. Hopefully history will not repeat itself. Although some will say that it already has in the likes of Suppan.

 

 

This is precisely why you attempt to extend your own guys (Hart, Fielder, Weeks) before trading them. They are a known quantity and all have turned in All-Star type seasons. Obviously, Fielder will be tough to lock up, but Weeks and Hart may be workable.

 

The Brewers have had little to no success throughout the entire history of the franchise in signing free agents to big money (relative to the Brewers) multi-year deals. I think their success rate in these is probably 20% or lower. I would rather take a chance on the homegrown guys.

[ninja33]

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tBbouLF8jmXAKM3-UDTbAog&output=html

That's a pretty nice spreadsheet from Cot's website. $25.538 million is committed next year (including buyouts) before arbitration. If all the eligible guys are offered arbitration (or agree to a one year deal), I'd put that number around $33 million. I could be wrong one way or the other, but either way the team probably has $55-60 million committed next year. So depending on where the maximum payroll ends up, I'd say $25 to $30 million. That's a nice chunk of change, too bad the options might be lacking a little bit.

[YoungGeezy]

I hope the Brewers take the Packer/Ted Thompson approach and retain your players instead of live on overpaying worthless Free Agents. We don't need to go out and spend 10 mil a year on a Wolf/Suppan type pitcher and we don't need to go out and overpay for a Jeffrey Hammonds bat. I know people hate the way TT does business but it is the right way to do it. Build a strong core, lock them up and fill in around them. No more wasteful spending. Trade if nessessary to help build that new core but I really hope they don't go out and spend on trash... which is most of the people they'd be able to get in the off-season in free agency.

 

Save, Save, Save and when the time comes that this or that homegrown/ young player needs a new deal you have the money there to make it happen, instead of just have to trade them away and restart all over again like we will now need to do with Fielder and maybe Hart and Weeks.

[Invader3K]

This is precisely why you attempt to extend your own guys (Hart, Fielder, Weeks) before trading them. They are a known quantity and all have turned in All-Star type seasons. Obviously, Fielder will be tough to lock up, but Weeks and Hart may be workable.

 

The Brewers have had little to no success throughout the entire history of the franchise in signing free agents to big money (relative to the Brewers) multi-year deals. I think their success rate in these is probably 20% or lower. I would rather take a chance on the homegrown guys.

Well, they've already tried twice with Prince and he doesn't seem interested in sticking around. Hart has given lip service to wanting to stay, but his agent apparently doesn't want to work anything out with Melvin. Maybe Rickie Weeks is a possibility.

 

I do agree that I really don't want them playing around too much in free agency. Hopefully Melvin has learned his lessons and will try to be much more efficient with how he spends his payroll going forward.

[1992casey]

Not to mention, the new TV deal doesn't kick in until the following year.

 

I wonder if the Brewers might have gotten some immediate "relief" on the current TV contract as a result of re-signing. That'd be a good question to ask in a Melvin or Attanasio chat.

[monty57]

This is precisely why you attempt to extend your own guys (Hart, Fielder, Weeks) before trading them. They are a known quantity and all have turned in All-Star type seasons. Obviously, Fielder will be tough to lock up, but Weeks and Hart may be workable.

 

The Brewers have had little to no success throughout the entire history of the franchise in signing free agents to big money (relative to the Brewers) multi-year deals. I think their success rate in these is probably 20% or lower. I would rather take a chance on the homegrown guys.

Well, they've already tried twice with Prince and he doesn't seem interested in sticking around. Hart has given lip service to wanting to stay, but his agent apparently doesn't want to work anything out with Melvin. Maybe Rickie Weeks is a possibility.

 

I do agree that I really don't want them playing around too much in free agency. Hopefully Melvin has learned his lessons and will try to be much more efficient with how he spends his payroll going forward.

Yeah, the chance of extending Fielder is zero. In his latest interview, Prince admitted there are no talks going on, and he wants to play 1B "wherever he'll be in 2012". He will test free agency, and if the Brewers want him, they have to be the biggest bidder for him in FA.

 

Extending Hart scares me. Of course I like the season he's having, but he's coming off back-to-back .750 OPS seasons, so he seems like a guy we'd be saying to stay away from in free agency.

 

I would like to see Weeks extended, and I'd like to see more Braun-style contracts going out to players when they're still pre-arby. It adds risk, but it locks up core talent for an extended period, and adds cost certainty. I'd have no problem with trading Fielder for a young "top of the rotation talent" guy and then extending him out. In fact, I'd love it if that happened.

 

Our "first group" of young talent came along just before the trend of locking guys up early. That started with Braun, Tulo, Longoria, etc. We missed out on it with Fielder, and hopefully we can maximize his value in trade. Hopefully, the Braun-style deals continue in the future, and we take advantage of it going forward. Lock up the superstars/core players and go year-to-year with the rest. Trade players for prospects when you don't have a shot at the playoffs and prospects for players when you do.