The potential of Brett Lawrie?

[The Truth]

Just how good do you knowledgeable folks think Brett Lawrie is going to be? I know it's tough to predict such things. Do you think he'll be a better player than Rickie Weeks? At age 20 Lawrie seems to be having a better year than Weeks had at age 21 in AA playing for Huntsville... conversely he's not anywhere close to the numbers Ryan Braun put up at Huntsville

 

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=lawrie001bre

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=weeks-001ric

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=braun-001rya

[sbrylski]

It is impressive, of course, whenever a 20 year old is doing well at Double-A or higher.

 

But I think the boards are a bit too bullish on Lawrie. He definitely has the talent to be an everyday starter in the majors eventually, that's not a question. But a "hitting savant"? That sets the bar extremely high.

 

Lawrie has a lot of work to do yet. Minorleaguespits.com and FirstInning.com has his LD% at an anemic 11%. That's not how you overcome a very average .2 K/PA rate. That combo normally puts your batting average in the low .200's. Not to say that he won't improve, but he doesn't appear as over-advanced for a 20 year old as it seems on the surface.

 

I think Weeks definitely had more potential coming up through the system. Weeks looked to be a .300+ hitter with consistent 30-to-40 HR power. His wrist injuries zapped a lot of that potential, unfortunately.

 

I would put Lawrie's bat's ceiling at about Corey Hart. A higher .260-.290 hitter, with a decent eye, decent power, and 20+ base stealer. That's a rough description of what Weeks is now as well, but Weeks has a better eye than both.

 

So I think Lawrie will be better as a #5 or #6 bat than a #3 or #4. Hitting .270 or .280, with an OBP about 60 points higher, 20+ HR power (maybe a peak year or two with 30-to-35) and 20+ steals. An All-Star appearance or three. Not bad at all, a great asset. But some seem to be expecting even more than that. He's not Ryan Braun.

[Wesrob1]

Three players from the past I think he could be a hybrid of are Larry Walker/Craig Biggio/ Darryl Strawberry(minus the off/on field troubles).

[endaround]

You can't compare early decade Huntsville with Hunstville today. I can't find it now but I believe that early decade Hunstville had a park factor like .85 and now its like .95.

[TooLiveBrew]

Lawrie has a lot of work to do yet. Minorleaguespits.com and FirstInning.com has his LD% at an anemic 11%

 

I may be wrong, but iirc there was a lot of questioning on BF about some other (again, iirc) Huntsville players' LD rates. Much like MiLB error totals, it's possible that pbp data from MiLB games may not be reliable. I find it nearly impossible to believe that a guy with a .289 AVG, .457 SLG, and 41 XBH -- inlcuding 11 triples -- in just 419 PAs is only hitting line drives roughly 10% of the time. Think about that -- 41/419 is nearly 10%, so we're basically supposed to believe that not only has he hit several bleeders down the RF/LF lines that've gone for extra bases, but that almost all of his singles have been grounders. I just don't see that as possible.

EDIT: And would LD% only be on balls batted in play, total PA, total AB?

[SenatorShriv]

Lawrie may end up being slightly more valuable than Weeks in the long run if he can stay on the field, but I don't think his production will regularly match that of a healthy Rickie Weeks.

[homer]

Not to say that he won't improve, but he doesn't appear as

over-advanced for a 20 year old as it seems on the surface.

Agreed. He has a great slugging percentage but it's inflated from his triples which is a hard thing to repeat year after year. I think a more accurate gauge is if you took like 80% of his triples and made them doubles and then see what you have.

[The Truth]

It'll be interesting to see how Lawrie does in AAA ball. Weeks just absolutely raked in AAA.

 

The fact that Lawrie is putting up better numbers than Weeks did in AA ball intrigues me, but that is tempered somewhat by what endaround said "You can't compare early decade Huntsville with Hunstville today."

 

That said, I'm pretty high on Weeks. I think if he can stay healthy (a big if, I know) he could be a perennial All-Star. He's certainly no Robinson Cano, or even a Chase Utley (though Weeks has a higher OPS than Utley and more HR's this year) but Weeks' OPS this year and last is higher than anything Brandon Phillips has ever approached (for instance)

 

So anyways, that had me thinking that perhaps Brett Lawrie could be an All-Star 2B. I suppose the key is whether he can stick at 2B. Those offensive numbers aren't nearly as exciting if he's a corner Outfielder. I see no indication whatsoever that he could be a Ryan Braun (but then few are, and Braun's OPS is way down at this point in time, (all the way down to .819!)

[battlekow]

Lawrie has a lot of work to do yet. Minorleaguespits.com and FirstInning.com has his LD% at an anemic 11%

 

I may be wrong, but iirc there was a lot of questioning on BF about some other (again, iirc) Huntsville players' LD rates. Much like MiLB error totals, it's possible that pbp data from MiLB games may not be reliable. I find it nearly impossible to believe that a guy with a .289 AVG, .457 SLG, and 41 XBH -- inlcuding 11 triples -- in just 419 PAs is only hitting line drives roughly 10% of the time. Think about that -- 41/419 is nearly 10%, so we're basically supposed to believe that not only has he hit several bleeders down the RF/LF lines that've gone for extra bases, but that almost all of his singles have been grounders. I just don't see that as possible.

EDIT: And would LD% only be on balls batted in play, total PA, total AB?

On MLS, it's calculated based on all balls in play. Same for pitchers, which makes it a lot more useful than the GO/AO posted in MiLB.com, though that's a nice shorthand on a game-by-game basis. Your overall point is correct: the BIP classifications may be suspect. They may not be, and Lawrie (and Cain) may have been getting massively lucky. Hard to tell, but at least in Lawrie's case, there are excellent scouting reports to back up the statistics.

[igor67]

Regressing triples to doubles for a 20 year old and estimating OPS seems awfully dubious, since players add power as they age. At worst it would be as accurate to turn most of those triples into HRs and re figure his OPS. Further his trajectory looks more like rapid growth than a plateau in production. He might not project as high as Rickie did when they were both drafted, but I think it's safe to say that Weeks isn't going morph into Chase Utley anymore. He's still been very good this year, but at a level that seems well within Lawrie's reach.