WHOA SOLVD: Upgrading the rotation v2.0 ?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

So I was talking with some buddies this weekend trying to
figure out how we could turn Dave Bush and Prince Fielder into two serviceable
pitchers for 2011 and beyond. This is what we came up with.

#1- Trade Dave Bush to the Twins for Nick Blackburn. This is
the simplest and most "no brainer" of the three. This would be
a classic "sell high" based on Bush's past 2 months, and "buy
low" based on Blackburn's awful first half. Blackburn
certainly has the tools to be the 4.00 era /1.30 whip pitcher that he was in
2008 and 2009. He still has three more arby years of team control
left. He's had an awful 2010, but i think would be a pretty impressive
haul for 2 months of Dave Bush (who we are going to lose for nothing anyways).
If Blackburn continues his Manny Parra impression, we can always cut him for
nothing. Blackburn is better than any pitcher that we will realistically
be able to acquire through free agency. Why the Twins make this
deal? They have a better defense and bigger ballpark than Bush.
Bush probably also sees how those factors have made Carl Pavano a borderline
All-Star. They have a team underperforming and need to make a change in
their rotation. They didn't get Lee and won't get Oswalt, but Bush would
help stabilize a rotation with many question marks after Liriano and Pavano.

#2- Trade Prince
Fielder to the Rays for Matt Garza. The
Rays have salary concerns and with their glut of young pitching, expect Garza (like
Kazmir) to be traded. Garza is under
team control through the 2012 season. They
are in striking distance this year and Prince would be a huge upgrade in their
lineup. In Garza, the Brewers have a
legit #2 to pair with Yo that we haven’t had since Sheets/Sabathia led us the playoffs.

Our 2011 Rotation:

Gallardo
Garza
Wolf
Blackburn
Parra/whoever breaks through the minors first.

Cain takes over in RF for Hart, who moves to 1B. I’ve been torn about trading Corey, but if
he and Weeks are willing to sign team friendly deals (neighborhood of 5/30), I think
we need to do it. The offense has been
solid and we should have help coming through the minors, but we need to keep
some of the old core to keep the fans engaged.
Hart (with his height) reminds me a great deal of the Sexson years.

I firmly believe that our best targets are early-Arby pitchers in a trade
(not-pre Arby as a team is not going to trade solid pre-Arby pitching) and hope
to ink these players to team friendly 3-4 year deals with an option or
two. Garza would be an established
pitcher & great haul for Prince, and Blackburn could be a solid #2-3 if he
pans out, and only cost us Bush if he doesn’t.

[Never Outhustled]

-Garza is actually under control through 2013.

-There was evidence that Blckburn was getting lucky before he fell apart. he's now pitching to his expected results.

-Cain will be the starting CF.

-Weeks and Hart will get contracts that pay $10,000 a year for their free agency years, in part because there will be few quality free agents available when they hit the market.

 

I do like the idea of getting Garza, and you have my support on that deal.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Blackburn might have been getting lucky, but i'll take a 4.00 era / 1.30 whip from my #4 pitcher in the rotation any day. I agree that he's not going to improve the team by himself, but as I noted above, who is going to sign here for a reasonable contract that isn't 1) old, 2) injury prone, or 3) has some issues. Blackburn (even in his struggles), in my opinion is a better pitcher than anyone we could pay less than $10m to on the open market. Would I advocate trading Prince for Blackburn? Not a chance. But Blackburn can't possibly be any worse than Parra/Narverson/Davis right now. He screams "change of scenery" to me.

 

But since we lose Bush likely anyways... trading Bush for Blackburn is essentially getting something for nothing.

 

Edit: I disagree that Weeks and Hart are $10m/per players. As someone noted in another thread, very few 2B, make more than $5-6m/per. Weeks has been solid this year and is probably a top-10 2B, but he's also never made it through an entire season before and doesn't really have the counting stats. I think 5/30 would be a very fair offer to Rickie and I think that he would take it. Hart is a bigger question mark, but i think that GMs have learned and aren't going to pay massive dollars for mid-range players. If Corey finishes .300/.350/.600/.950 and repeats with a .900-.950 OPS next year, he'd probably get a big deal in FA, but an outfielder who to date has never put up over an .900 OPS over a full season is not going to get a huge offer. Maybe offer Corey 3/24 instead of he finishes above .900 ops this year

[trwi7]

I'm pretty sure I could strikeout as many batters as Nick Blackburn given the same number of innings. Moving him here with our defense will make him worse.

[MNBrew]

3 fast things:

 

1. Garza would be the caliber of pitcher I'd hope to get in return for Prince. There should be more than just Garza coming back in that deal, though.

 

2. Blackburn's terrible. He's a RH version of Manny Parra: batting practice waiting to happen. (Note: Neither is remotely close to their ceiling, but I think Parra's ceiling is much higher than Blackburn's.)

 

3. Blackburn signed a 4-year, $14M extension in early March with an $8M option (team, presumably) for 2014. Glad we're not stuck w/ that contract!!!

 

Given #2 & #3, by comparison, it's much better to have Dave Bush than Nick Blackburn right now.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

I forgot about Blackburn's deal.... still, four years / $14 million isn't exactly a big contract. If he ever shows signs of life (low 4s Era), that would be a steal. I think people need to ask themselves, would they rather have Narverson or Blackburn in our rotation next year. Bush (if he's even here) will be due a nice raise in arby next year

[Invader3K]

I wouldn't be excited by Blackburn, but I wouldn't be upset about trading for him either. I guess if Davis also gone next year, I'd be a little more optimistic about such a move.

 

I would love to get Garza; but I think Fielder would warrant more coming back in return than just one SP with only three years of control left.

[bill hAll Star]

I don't think you guys understand how bad Blackburn would be here.

 

Whoever called him Manny Parra right-handed version, I'd liken him more to Doug Davis. He can't strike anyone out and relies on keeping the ball down and allowing the field to make the plays. We play in a more HR friendly park so a few more of his pitches would be hit out but most importantly, our defense would make us almost surely lose many of the games he pitched. I'm sorry but Blackburn might be the worst fit for our team. San Diego, Minnesota, Seattle = solid #4. Milwaukee = Suppan/Wolf/Davis material.

[Bnowell4evr]

Tell me what you think of my crazy ideas.

We start off with a 3 team deal involving the Brewers, Whitesox and Bluejay and the end result is this.

Brewers receive Dan Hudson, Gordon Beckham and Shaun Marcum or Brett Cecil

Blue Jays receive Brett Lawrie

Whitesox receieve Prince Fielder

Then we just need club X whoever that may be (ATL, SDP, SF, TB) to complete my 3 team deal with the Brewers and Arizona. Club X would trade for Corey Hart and provide a SP that we would send with Amaury Rivas to Arizona for Dan Haren.

Brewers receive - Dan Haren

Club X recieves - Corey Hart

D-Backs recieve - Amaury Rivas + pitcher TBD

In the end our roster would be looking something like this:

Gallardo, Haren, Marcum/Cecil, Hudson, Wolf

C - Lucroy

1B - McGehee/Gamel

2B - Weeks

SS - Escobar

3B - Beckham

LF - Braun

CF - Cain

RF - FA

So what do you think? Would that solve all of our rotation problems?

[bill hAll Star]

Even though Haren has struggled this year, that is not nearly enough for Haren unless that TBD pitcher is really good. I Know Rivas is a huge prospect.

 

Haren is going to be expensive and Marcum is scary. Had Tommy John and recently skipped a few starts with some elbow issues.

 

I personally would like to take anyone like Haren out of our plans. We need to look 1-2 years down the road with some very young pitchers that we can control for 5-6 years. Ceilings are higher, costs are cheaper.

[Invader3K]

I just don't think going after Haren makes sense for this team at this point. I think I'd rather hang onto Rivas than go after an aging and much more expensive pitcher.

[Roderick]

Logically or not, Garza's price tag just went up a bunch with his nohitter.