is anyone concerned about Gamel?

[pete]

Macha started him repeatedly.

[danzig6767]

Ideal for Gamel to be a RF, he's got a cannon for an arm, but he's poopy infielder. With Corey going to be traded in the offseason this move makes a lot of sense.

If Hart doesn't get traded and Gamel shows something in the outfield, Braun to first base might be the best situation because he still looks terrible in the outfield.

 

It's frustrating that the Brewers seem unable to find guys in the draft who can both hit/be good defensively and here our arguably two best hitting prospects in the minor also don't have a set position yet. Hart isn't as bad defensively as Braun, but he often misreads balls off the bat and his arm is incredibly inaccurate. The infield defense is bad also. Whatever the everyday lineup ends up being next season, i sure hope it's not filled up with mostly bad to mediocre defensive players again because teams with subpar pitching and bad defense don't make the post season regardless if the offense is in the upper tier of their league. Whether Doug doesn't take defense serious enough or circumstances have just worked out how they have, this year was like last year with subpar pitching talent that was compounded on by bad defense behind them. I hope it's not the same story next year.

[logan82]

If Hart doesn't get traded and Gamel shows something in the outfield, Braun to first base might be the best situation because he still looks terrible in the outfield.

 

I disagree. 1B and 3B are positions where you want guys who are good at reacting and have good fielding instincts. Braun has neither. At least in the outfield his athleticism allows him to make some plays in LF. I don't want him back in the infield and historically bad as a fielder again. At least now he is merely bad.

[uwisfan]

I agree logan.. Id like to see Gamel at first given his erratic arm but good reaction and ability to get to the ball

[Invader3K]

I think Gamel will move to 1B with Hart being extended. I don't think they'll risk having Hart change positions after the Bill Hall mess a couple years back.

[TooLiveBrew]

I could see Hart moving to 1B. Depends on whether he's actually figured anything out at the plate, or if this season is a fluke, though. Going by UZR, Hart has been bad & getting worse in RF... bad enough the past three seasons that I hope the Brewers try Gamel in right to see if he can be an improvement.

[DHonks]

If Hart goes to first, then suddenly Gamel's defense will improve dramatically. Having a fat 5'10" first baseman with a small wingspan is a huge disadvantage when Hart is 6'6" with a longer wingspan. Hart could be like a Derek Lee at first base.

[paul253]

Well I for one hope Hart goes back to first. It would be a huge improvement at first and probably a wash in right field.

[pete]

I could see Hart at 1st. Having a bad UZR doesn't mean he has bad defense though.

[TooLiveBrew]

Actually, that's exactly what it means. 1B & C are the only positions where it's not pretty reliable.

[The Truth]

This is nothing that can't be learned on the fly while playing 1B. Even if Gamel makes a mistake at 1B that mistake really isn't going to hurt the team all that much.

"We're trying to plan. As (general manager) Doug (Melvin) has said, you can't switch (positions) once you get up here (during the season)." - Gord Ash

[pete]

No, without question, UZR is a wholly undefined commodity. I understand that its promoters have strong self interest and that fans love the idea that they can do sophisticated evaluations by pulling up a fangraphs page. The methodology is crude and it is wholly lacking in any scientific rigor. Has there ever been any reliability testing? I doubt it.

 

Saying Hart is poor defensively because of a UZR rating regardless of sample size is stating a conclusion that isn't supported by the premise.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's supported by the fact that he gets poor reads on balls & generally doesn't play well in RF. Add in several seasons of poor UZR data, and it's pretty fair to say it's an accurate gauge.

I think Gamel could probably also be a poor RF defender, so it will depend on who is a better option at 1B.

[The Truth]

Considering that Gamel displayed great range at 3B and his main problem was throwing errors, I think Gamel could be an elite level fielding first-baseman (as long as you can live with a few errant relay throws home). I think range and glove-work like Gamel is capable of would be wasted in the outfield (where his arm could be more of a liability too)

[pete]

I'm guessing that you aren't aware of any reliability testing. Asserting that he gets "poor reads" and "generally doesn't play well in RF" doesn't make it so and it certainly doesn't make UZR valid or reliable.

 

Also, having more data doesn't make something reliable or valid either. That's not a fair conclusion.

[Crash2303]

Is 1B more of an important defensive position than RF? Even though RF gets more balls in play hit to, and needs a strong arm to get runners going to third- first base has lots of infield throws per game than good first basemen can make plays on that can eliminate hits.

[thebruce44]

I'm guessing that you aren't aware of any reliability testing. Asserting that he gets "poor reads" and "generally doesn't play well in RF" doesn't make it so and it certainly doesn't make UZR valid or reliable.

 

Also, having more data doesn't make something reliable or valid either. That's not a fair conclusion.

When UZR jives with the eye test that makes it fairly reliable in that situation. I am not saying UZR is always correct, or should be relied upon. But if you watch Hart play its painfully obvious he is a well below average defender who was seemingly average several years ago. Looking at his UZR data, there is a direct correlation, so it seems as though the conclusion that his defense is well below average is sound.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm guessing that you aren't aware of any reliability testing. Asserting that he gets "poor reads" and "generally doesn't play well in RF" doesn't make it so and it certainly doesn't make UZR valid or reliable.

 

Also, having more data doesn't make something reliable or valid either. That's not a fair conclusion.

So your stance is that Hart plays solid to good defense in RF, and neither visual evidence nor statistical evidence should be allowed to factor into the process. Pardon me if I find this discussion tiring.

[pete]

Again, I ask you what reliability testing has been done with UZR? You claimed that it was reliable. You have nothing to say regarding the unscientific way its done.

 

What visual evidence are you talking about? Its easier to say that the visual evidence contradicts your assertion. I find your evasions tiring. Its odd that you include my post as a quote and then don't respond to it. Rather you invent a straw man and beat it down.

[gregmag]

AKA Pete, I'm curious what you mean by reliability testing in this context. I haven't studied stats in . . . let's just call it a very long time. What I'm wondering, and I may just be misunderstanding the concept, is what you would use as the baseline for testing a defensive metric -- or, to put it another way, how you would define the intended function of the metric. I wouldn't think we could test a measuring device for reliability unless we already had a proven measuring device to use for a baseline. If we had that for baseball defense, we would all be happy already. I usually take the arguments about defensive metrics to turn on disagreements about what information properly indicates good defense. Those arguments seem valuable to me, even though (or because) I don't think we know yet how to resolve them conclusively. Team-based metrics deal with this problem to some extent, because they allow us to correlate defense with team runs allowed, but team-based metrics of course present tricky problems of allocating defensive responsibility. Anyway, I'd love to know more about how you might design reliability testing for something like UZR.

 

Oh, and Gamel.

 

Seriously, his second half turnaround may be the biggest of the many second half turnarounds our prospects have enjoyed. He's no Prince, but his performance makes trading Prince a lot less scary. I have a hard time doubting now that he's a good major league hitter. The position question right now seems to be who you want in the outfield less -- Braun or Hart. Somebody, maybe Pogo, was talking yesterday about Hart-as-Sexson, and I liked that thought, so right now I'd put Gamel in RF and Hart at 1b, with Braun hopefully figuring things out in LF and Lawrie replacing McGehee at 3b within the next year or so.

 

Greg.

[pete]

Just call me Pete. You could test reliability, that is the ability to get consistent measurements (or ratings), although in this discussion the term is used more as the common language term which would be something like "useful and accurate." Validity along with reliability are the statistical measures that would be appropriate for that.

 

 

 

You could test the reliability of lets say the measurement of Hart's defense. You could use an independent video set-up, in particular one that has a constant view and compare against other fielders in RF in Miller Park. You could also reconstruct the performances using the videos and measuring time and distance of ball and fielders.

 

 

 

Another almost essential test which might be done, but I wouldn't be surprised if it wasn't, is testing reliability between evaluators. Just have different guys look at the same videos and see how consistent they are. A player who gets high ratings on defensive metrics but who I see often make really bad mistakes is Colby Rasmus. If he is being judged by some inexperienced young person who is also a Cards fan or who is "in to" the Fangraphs crowd where he is adored, the results may be worthless.

 

 

 

You are left with the ultimate question of what is good which is what you seemed to be saying. All I was really doing was challenging the notion that UZR is reliable.

[TooLiveBrew]

A player who gets high ratings on defensive metrics but who I see often make really bad mistakes is Colby Rasmus. If he is being judged by some inexperienced young person who is also a Cards fan or who is "in to" the Fangraphs crowd where he is adored, the results may be worthless.

 

How many games of the Cardinals' do you watch?

[logan82]

Colby Rasmus has a negative UZR/150 in CF this year.

[Never Outhustled]

Colby Rasmus has a negative UZR/150 in CF this year.

 

Yet just like with Carlos Gomez you'll tell me that a partial season of UZR is useless and that Rasmus is playing great defense as always and that I know nothing about UZR right?

[logan82]

Colby Rasmus has a negative UZR/150 in CF this year.

Yet just like with Carlos Gomez you'll tell me that a partial season of UZR is useless and that Rasmus is playing great defense as always and that I know nothing about UZR right?

Carlos Gomez has a career UZR/150 of 13.5 over about 2660 innings in CF. Colby Rasmus has a career UZR/150 of 4.6 over about 1720 in CF. I would say Rasmus is about average and Gomez is above average.