Brewers will likely shun big 2010 deals

[bamberger]

If Attanasio can be taken at his word, he wants to try to win in 2011. Melvin will probably keep "core" players until then unless he can get good major league starting pitching in 2010-11 an off season trade for one of the core position guys or in free agency with money made available through departures of Suppan, Hoffman and Bill Hall.

 

The one exception is if he could get a good major league starting pitcher in 2010 for Corey Hart. I don't see them trading Hart for other than major-league ready prospects or trading Brewer prospects during this season for a starting pitcher.

 

However, they could well trade bench players, extras or lesser starting or relief pitchers for available value.

[brewmann04]

Very solid points and i agree totally on what the Brewers should get for Hart.I also think Prince will go before Hart especially if there in no shot at keeping him beyond 2011.

[MJLiverock]

Then I see no reason to think the same crappy team from 2009 and 2010 will be any better in 2011. Looking for different results from the same group of players doesn't seem all that smart just more treading water at the 75-80 win area.

[Diggr14]

I think they can win without Hart and Fielder.

 

 

You have to figure that Escobar and Gomez can't hit much worse than they are currently. Rickie Weeks is hitting .353 with RISP and has an godly .353 BA/.515 OBP with RISP w/2outs.

 

15 HR and 53 RBI are sick for a leadoff guy at this point in the season. IMO he has been the 1st half MVP - Axford and Hart are close.

 

 

Without Hart and Fielder we will likely pick up surplus pitching. While 2010 is probably a lame duck season at this point, you can still aim big for 2011 without these guys.

 

I am not a fan of sliding McGehee over to 1b and inserting Gamel at 3rd - McGehee is too solid at 3rd - he needs to stay put. Gamel plays 3rd worse than Braun threw from 3rd to 1st. He has brick hands and should be moved to RF if he ever starts hitting again... then he would earn a spot in Milwaukee.

 

I would advise the crew going out and signing a one year guy at 1b next season when Fielder is dealt. Switch Lawrie to 1b - @ AAA and bring him up mid-june 2011. Lawrie's bat does translate to 1b. If not Lawrie, move Braun from LF to 1b - he wont have to throw the ball much and would be alot better there than at 3rd.. theorhetically.

 

The pitching we receive back from the Hart/Fielder deals would likely result in a starter for 2011 or two.

 

The rotation of

Gallardo

Wolf

Parra

Prospect

Prospect

 

isnt a bad idea IMO. It will be much cheaper than years past. We also have guys in the minors that could make the staff if we are hurting. Notably Mark Rogers - shedding that bust moniker and Amaury Rivas.

 

Going forward, 2011 will be a less cumbersome salary burden for the Brewers and they should be able to make some moves to bring in Veteran position players if they need to fill a spot or two. They can't be any worse than this season.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Totally agree with you, trading Hart and Fielder wouldn't stop us from competing. If we get solid pitching in return it would actually help us compete.

[MJLiverock]

My point is that if they intend on hanging on to everyone except some fring players and role players in the bullpen there is no reason to expect improvement. That is my beef with the idea of hanging onto Hart and Fielder until next year. These are the only trade chips (or Weeks) that will bring back any sort of quality. This team isn't a contender with them on the team and there is no one on the immediate horizon to improve the pitching staff enough to make them a contender.

 

I doubt a team parts with a major league ready arm who projects to be more than a 4th 5th starter for Hart alone. Getting yet another back of the rotation guy in Milwaukee doesn't improve the team, they need to jettison a few of them at this point.

 

The payroll savings of no longer paying Hall, Suppan, etc. is nice but the odds of landing a free agent pitcher that makes a big difference and doesn't turn out to be a lodestone contract that everyone hates in 2 years is slim. The team would probably be better off trading Fielder and Hart now, getting more in return for 1.5 years of their service than .5 years and spending their money on a bat in the off season. The team will just as likely end 2011 in that same 75-83 win area but may well be better set up for 2012 if they get a projectable starter or two out of the mess that can start contributing in to the major league club in 2011 and be ready to go the distance for the team in 2012. This will also give guys like Cain and Gamel a chance to get some major league seasoning in prior to being expected to play major roles on a division winning team.

 

The team can hang onto all of these guys until they walk in free agency after 2011 and get comp picks which will be years from helping the team. The team will still not be a contender in 2011 and will likely be really bad in 2012 as all that offensive production leaves town. The young pitching in the Brewers minors won't be pitching 180 quality innings apiece in Milwaukee in 2012, I wouldn't expect guys like Odorizzi and Heckathorn to help in a strong run until 2013 given the time it takes to build up arm strength an typical young pitcher struggles.

 

I think it comes down to realistically looking at the team's chances to be anything more than a middle of the pack team in 2010 and 2011 and what shape the system will be in after that. It may mean taking a step back to take two steps forward. Hanging on to everyone for draft picks or until the team is backed into a corner at the dealine next year won't result in anything more than some avoidance of near term struggles (and still no playoffs) in exchange for being really bad in a couple years vs. admiting they aren't going anywere this year or next and being better set up in 2012 forward.

[monty57]

I would be pretty shocked if Hart isn't traded soon, and Prince traded sometime before next season. As others have said, we could be better with what we receive in trade + the replacements for Hart/Fielder than we are with what we currently have + Hart & Fielder.

 

Our pitching would be vastly improved simply by finding a "#2/3" to fit between Yo and Wolf/Parra. Any of the rumored Minor/W. Davis/Garza combo would fit that. If that happens and Parra continues to improve and Wolf gets back closer to his career numbers, we could actually have an average-to-above-average rotation (I know, a lot of "ifs").

 

We've got an offense that has scored the fourth most runs in the National League, and that's without Prince hitting that much better than an average MLB 1B (although he's come on strong lately). It shouldn't be too difficult to replace him with an .800+ OPS 1B, so even though he will be impossible to replace, our offense should still be above average. As for Hart, he is far too difficult to predict. If he is suddenly a .900 OPS player, then of course we'd suffer without him. If he's the .750 OPS RF he has been the past two years, then he is very easily replaceable. We're probably better off trading him while he's hot and letting someone else worry about that. The dropoff from this year's Hart to whoever replaces him should be at least somewhat made up for by Braun hitting closer to normal, Cain replacing Gomez and Escobar and Lucroy having a season under their belts.

 

The bottom line for me is that if we can still have an above-average (though not quite as good) offense and an average-to-above-average rotation (up from really bad) to go along with what looks like a fairly solid bullpen and what would have to be improved defense (Hart and Fielder are below average), and we could have a better team next year than we have this year. Plus, we would move from a team on the verge of losing a good portion of their talent at the end of the season to a team where most of the "core talent" is under control for multiple seasons.

[DHonks]

I've thoughts of a lot of scenarios for next year. Here's one I'd love to see but likely won't.

 

-Trade Fielder for 1 big league ready young pitcher and 2-3 young prospects (much like the Sabathia deal)

-Sign Hart to a 5 year $40 million deal; move him to 1st base (gain bigger target at 1b, likely upgrade the defense all-around at all 4 IF and in RF with this one move)

-Sign Weeks to a 5 year $42 million deal; move to RF

-Cain in CF

-either McGehee at 3b and Farris at 2b, or McGehee at 2b and Gamel at 3b. (one year later, have Green and Lawrie join the mix)

 

Trading Fielder and Hart is fine with me, but we need to give up on Weeks at 2b seeing as we have McGehee, Lawrie, and Green who all likely can play it better than him (all likely still below average, though). Heck, we even have Farris.

[brains and braun]

I vote "no" on moving Rickie to the outfield. Rickie and the team have expressed no desire to do this, likely for good reason. Plus, his premium offensive numbers would be far more pedestrian in a corner outfield spot.

[Diggr14]

I dont think they should trade Hart, just to trade him. But if someone comes in with an offer that the Brewers like... im sure they will go for it. But if GMs around the league try to low-ball them.. i dont think they have any problem keeping these guys for next season. It's just a matter of getting what you can.. im sure they are on the phones listening to teams that want to compete. Unlike going after players at the deadline, you are now in the position where teams come to you and want to pluck from your squad. After a team shows real interest.. then the bargaining back and forth begins.

 

But if they call up and say.. hey, we want Corey Hart and don't want to trade anything worth swapping him for (IE: Giants) then, just thank them for their time and wait till the winter. Worst case scenario you will get back draft picks - but again, this shouldnt happen either if they play their cards right.

[Diggr14]

I agree on "no" moving Rickie to the OF. He is not good at 2b.. but he isn't killing us either. He's much better from 2 years+ ago. He'll keep getting better. Keep him there. Plus if you ever want to trade him.. his bat is killer for a 2b. He would be much less valuable in RF.

[dadofandrew]

I have no idea if Hart can play 1B or not, but is career numbers would have him below average offensively. Weeks has worked his way into average D at 2B. Cain is the same age as Gomez, so I doubt he'll be much of an upgrade offensively, and a definite defensive downgrade. Farris is not a major league prospect, or at least much of one. He had a 720 OPS in A+ ball at 23, and now a 700ish OPS in AAA at 24, that screams roster filler to me. I have no idea if Rickie can play RF, his offense will be barely average there, and he has no desire to move to OF.

[JohnBriggs12]

Totally agree with you, trading Hart and Fielder wouldn't stop us from competing. If we get solid pitching in return it would actually help us compete.

 

Watch for key words here: They could compete without Hart and Fielder if they are traded for top notch starting pitchers and if those pitchers perform and if the lineup can score enough without two proven middle of the order hitters. That's a could, and 3 ifs.

 

If no major deals are made, it doesn't mean changes won't happen or that improvement can't take place. Lorenzo Cain may well take Carlos Gomez job by next spring. Sure Hart may fall off, but does anyone believe Fielder will again be worst in the league in percentage of baserunners driven in? Will the 2011 team have a 2 month period of blown save after blown save? Perhaps, but not likely. Escobar is capable of improvement as is Lucroy. Braun is too.

 

The pitching staff needs more tweaking, the bench a little revamping but the money's there to do both.

[brains and braun]

How can you argue against PEM and his "three ifs" while trotting out a whole bunch of "ifs" of your own? Counting on a bunch of things going right is part of what put the Brewers in their current predicament. The pitching staff is NOT good enough right now. Can you honestly tell me otherwise? We are looking to win a championship, and a playoff rotation of Yo, Wolf, and (Davis, Bush, Narvy, etc) is a joke. Say Braun and Prince do come back better next year. Who's to say Yo won't get injured, or other guys production won't bottom out. We need to put together the best team we can, the best organization we can. Sure, we could add a couple more over-priced FA additions and hope everything falls into place. The likely outcome of that scenario is: 1) we get low-balled on Corey and Prince and make less than stellar deals, or 2) we keep them and get "comp" picks (maybe) while all the while burning money and roster spots on guys we'll wish we hadn't signed in the first place. If we continue to build the team around FA, particularly pitching, I think we'll run this organization right back into the ground. Trading Corey and Prince for prospects is a gamble, but it's a better one than trying to do a last minute rental deal, or letting them walk at the end of the year. At least we have some control here.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I think what matters more is competing beyond next season. Could we compete next year without Hart and Fielder? Yes we could. Could we compete beyond that without Hart and Fielder? Absolutely. If we acquire the right pieces in those trades, which will hopefully solidify our pitching staff for the future, there's no reason to believe that we won't be able to compete again down the road. We still have plenty of offense on our team, including young players that will bring us into the future. We are missing that same presence on the pitching staff, and the only way to change that is to sell high on Hart, and get what you can for Fielder when it comes to young, high-ceiling pitching. There's a good chance that we'll get at least one pitcher out of those two trades that will make an impact next year, and that alone would make us a better team. Maybe we'd take a slight hit on offense, but I think Gamel can step in adequately for Fielder, and we can find someone else to play RF. The point is that we need another high-ceiling starter in our rotation, because we aren't getting anywhere with the rotation we have now no matter how good we are offensively. We are better off taking the gamble and trying to acquire some young pitching rather than sitting on Hart and Fielder hoping to compete next year with virtually the same team, and risk letting them walk for just draft picks who won't impact this team for even longer than the prospects we could get via trade. I just see no reason to believe that this same team can compete next year, so I see no reason not to take a gamble and sell high on Hart and trade Fielder for the best deal out there as well. I just don't think we have much to lose here. Fielder is gone anyway, and Hart could likely be gone also. Either that or he may revert back to his old self, and we will have lost our opportunity to get good value for him. Really it's gambling on being able to compete in 2011 with this same team hoping that our players improve enough, or it's gambling on being able to compete for multiple years down the road. I'll take the chance that provides us with more opportunities to compete, and that can only be done by trading Hart now and Fielder in the off-season for the best packages Doug can find.

[Never Outhustled]

Weeks has worked his way into average D at 2B. Cain is the same age as Gomez, so I doubt he'll be much of an upgrade offensively, and a definite defensive downgrade.

 

Weeks is well below average defensively, and Cain's MLE have him as a significant upgrade to Gomez. Gomez is a replacement level player. Cain, even while adjusting to MLB pitching, will significantly outproduce Gomez's 282 OBA.

[Never Outhustled]

Totally agree with you, trading Hart and Fielder wouldn't stop us from competing. If we get solid pitching in return it would actually help us compete.

 

Watch for key words here: They could compete without Hart and Fielder if they are traded for top notch starting pitchers and if those pitchers perform and if the lineup can score enough without two proven middle of the order hitters. That's a could, and 3 ifs.

 

If no major deals are made, it doesn't mean changes won't happen or that improvement can't take place. Lorenzo Cain may well take Carlos Gomez job by next spring. Sure Hart may fall off, but does anyone believe Fielder will again be worst in the league in percentage of baserunners driven in? Will the 2011 team have a 2 month period of blown save after blown save? Perhaps, but not likely. Escobar is capable of improvement as is Lucroy. Braun is too.

 

The pitching staff needs more tweaking, the bench a little revamping but the money's there to do both.

 

How about anything that would address our biggest weakness, our pathetic defense?

[PrinceEatMeat]

Totally agree with you, trading Hart and Fielder wouldn't stop us from competing. If we get solid pitching in return it would actually help us compete.

 

Watch for key words here: They could compete without Hart and Fielder if they are traded for top notch starting pitchers and if those pitchers perform and if the lineup can score enough without two proven middle of the order hitters. That's a could, and 3 ifs.

 

If no major deals are made, it doesn't mean changes won't happen or that improvement can't take place. Lorenzo Cain may well take Carlos Gomez job by next spring. Sure Hart may fall off, but does anyone believe Fielder will again be worst in the league in percentage of baserunners driven in? Will the 2011 team have a 2 month period of blown save after blown save? Perhaps, but not likely. Escobar is capable of improvement as is Lucroy. Braun is too.

 

The pitching staff needs more tweaking, the bench a little revamping but the money's there to do both.

 

How about anything that would address our biggest weakness, our pathetic defense?

Lawrie comes in at 2b, Weeks moves to RF, McGehee or Gamel at 1B. That's at least improvement at 2 positions there.

[uwisfan]

I'm not seeing how 2011 isnt going to be our worst year of the next 5.

Brewers lose

- Corey Hart

- Prince Fielder

- Rickie Weeks

 

..if you are going to lose those players, you are not likely to have a better year than 2010. The influx of pitching talent will be really green that year as well. I could see playing for 2010 and 2012, but 2011 makes little sense to me

[trwi7]

..if you are going to lose those players, you are not likely to have a better year than 2010.

That's fine with me. Sometimes you have to take a step back before you can take a couple steps forward.

[Baldkin]

I'm not seeing how 2011 isnt going to be our worst year of the next 5.

Brewers lose

- Corey Hart

- Prince Fielder

- Rickie Weeks

We have control of all 3 of those guys through 2011. So, unless we trade all 3 this season/this off season, they'll be back.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I think some fans have to get out of the habit of expecting the team to necessarily be more competitive every single season. That's just not realistic with a small market team like the Brewers.

[monty57]

As far as Weeks goes, while I agree he is bad on defense, his most value is as a 2B, as his bat wouldn't be very good in the corner OF and we already have Cain & Gomez for CF. If we can sign him to a team-friendly extension, then we should. If not, then let him walk and take what will probably be Type A/B compensation for him. Or, you could even trade him next trade deadline.

 

So, why do I propose trading Fielder and Hart and not Weeks? Unlike Fielder, Weeks is potentially signable. Weeks' injury history and early offensive struggles probably mean we wouldn't get equal value in trade. Unlike Hart, Weeks hasn't had a monstrous 1st half, allowing the Brewers to cash in... Weeks could increase his trade value by staying healthy and productive through next trade deadline. Finally, while I'd be upset if we settled for draft picks for Fielder, if Weeks is Type A, I'd be fine with getting draft picks for him.

 

How about anything that would address our biggest weakness, our pathetic defense?

 

I agree this is in big need of imporvement, and simply improving our defense will make our pitching staff look much better. Losing Hart and Fielder will help, as long as they don't play musical chairs and move players all over the field to fill the spots. If Gamel is our RF/1B of the future, they should move him there now, while he's in AAA. Our CF right now isn't Gomez, it's 80% Edmonds / 20% Gomez, so I would think Cain should be able to match that defensively. Also, Escobar and Lucroy should get better defensively... particularly Escobar, who is supposed to be good with the glove, but has been bad this season. I think people will be surprised at how much difference it will make to have a 1B that can actually catch bad throws and scoop balls in the dirt. I know 1B defense gets mocked, but infielders like throwing to someone who catches the ball, and like knowing they don't have to make perfect throws. I don't know how much it'll help, but getting a good target at 1B will certainly help.

 

We could go with an OF of Braun/Gomez/Cain, which would actually be a pretty good defensive OF. I just doubt that we will commit to Gomez as our everyday CF next year unless he actually gets some PT this season and shows some improvement in plate discipline.

[Invader3K]

We could go with an OF of Braun/Gomez/Cain, which would actually be a pretty good defensive OF. I just doubt that we will commit to Gomez as our everyday CF next year unless he actually gets some PT this season and shows some improvement in plate discipline.

This is why Gomez should be basically playing every day for the rest of the season, instead of just 2-3 days a week. I'd really like to see if we have anything in Gomez or not. If he ends up not getting better at the plate, I'd have no problem seeing him dealt as a throw in in a trade, or just DFAed in favor of Cain or someone next year.

 

I also agree with your premise that upgrading first base defensively could help our infield a great deal. Prince has really been disappointing to me with his glove work this season, when I thought he had turned a corner last year.

[uwisfan]

I'm not seeing how 2011 isnt going to be our worst year of the next 5.

Brewers lose

- Corey Hart

- Prince Fielder

- Rickie Weeks

 

..if you are going to lose those players, you are not likely to have a better year than 2010. The influx of pitching talent will be really green that year as well. I could see playing for 2010 and 2012, but 2011 makes little sense to me

yeah, disregard this post.. wasnt thinking.. 2011 is a good year to make a run