How many wins to the Brewers need in the 2nd Half for Melvin to keep his job?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

pre-2008 we were building... 2008 we reached the playoffs... last year we took a step back, this year we appear to have taken a bigger step back with Hart and Fielder possibly on their way out during/before 2011. If this team only wins 75 games, will we have a new GM by the winter meetings?

[nate82]

No.

[logan82]

No.

I agree. I think Melvin gets until the end of 2012 as the GM. We need to see how the MiLB pitching develops over the next year(or 2 years) to determine if Melvin has done a good job. If the MiLB pitching continues to develop well next year he keeps his job. If none of that pitching is contributing at the MLB level by 2012, he gets fired.

[And That]

The Brewers are probably going to be with 5 games of 75 wins, and if they are, Melvin will have no problem keeping his job. The closer the team is to 70 wins, however, the larger the odds of Macha losing his job.

 

The only way Melvin gets canned is if the Brewers win under 25 games the rest of the way, or if he pees in Attanasio's soup and that.

[kramnoj]

Attanasio has already said that one bad season isn't going to cost Melvin his job, and he's not counting last season's injuries against Melvin.

 

For me, the more interesting question pertains to Macha. How bad do the Brewers have to get for him to be fired this season, and how well do they have to perform the rest of the way for him to come back. I haven't been early on the Fire Macha campaign, but he hasn't done anything in my eyes to show that he deserves to keep his job. If Attanasio and Melvin believe that the Brewers can be a contender in 2011, one of the things they should be looking at is who can captain the ship, and I don't see much in Macha to indicate that he's the guy.

[PeaveyFury]

I expect Melvin to be back next year regardless, and Macha to not be back barring a miraculous run at the post season after the break.

[logan82]

I haven't been early on the Fire Macha campaign, but he hasn't done anything in my eyes to show that he deserves to keep his job.

 

I like how Macha finally put his 5 best hitters at the top of the order. Keep him or don't. I hardly think Macha is our problem this year and we are likely at best just exchanging one set of mistakes for another by changing managers. The fact that Macha was the lesser of 3 evils at the time of his hiring is really scary for our next manager search.

[Baldkin]

They need 10 wins in the second half for Melvin to keep his job.

Hopefully they can go 10-60.

[nate82]

If the Brewers change managers it will be Valentine or Randolph who will get the job and my money is on Randolph being the guy the Brewers go with.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think Melvin stays no matter what, but Macha is as good as gone.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think Melvin stays no matter what, but Macha is as good as gone.

Not so fast.

 

This isn't 1991. That year Tom Treblehorn closed out his tenure as manager going 40-19 (.678) in his last 59 games to finish 83-79. But that wasn't enough to save his job. Why? Because Harry Dalton had hired Treblehorn and he wasn't Sal Bando's guy. Bando wanted his choice for manager no matter what.

 

Melvin is already on his second hire as manager. Most GM's get 1 do-over. Failure by Macha is a huge check against Melvin as it will be the second manager he has chosen who failed.

 

This season started badly because Melvin handcuffed Macha with a disjointed roster due in large part to questionable offseason signings (Davis, Hawkins, Vargas, Zaun, Hoffman), the retention of "dead man walking" Suppan, and a bench that lacked a right handed bat.

 

Now by around June 1 (arguably too late to save the season), enough of the roster issues had sorted themselves out to allow this team to compete.

 

If you throw out April and May the standings in the NL Central are:

 

Milwaukee 19 19

Houston 19 19

Cincinnati 19 19

St. Louis 17 19

Chicago 15 22

Pittsburgh 9 27

 

You can look at this as an indictment of Macha that despite the fact that the Reds and Cards are combined 36-38 since June 1, that the Brewers failed to make up any ground.

 

Or it could be looked at that since the Brewer roster was purged of much dead wood, they've been the equal of any team in the division.

 

Either way, the Brewers missed a golden opportunity to get back in the race. Now should St. Louis and Cincinnati continue to muddle along at a .500 pace the rest of the season, the Brewers easily could get back in it, especially if Fielder turns back into the hitter he was in 2009, and Braun goes on a hot streak. If that happens, Macha will stay around next year. If not, he's certainly gone and Melvin is 50-50.

[davego]

Agreed with the above. I see DM hiring one more manager (at least).

 

Now, if Macha goes, I'd love to see a bit different direction then a guy on his 3rd or 4th team. I understand why the organization went with Ken, but going younger and new would make some sense (to me).

[Ennder]

They would have to completely tank the 2nd half I think. We are still in the middle of the rebuild imo as we are still on the first set of players drafted. A rebuild isn't 'finished' until the second wave has come and the first wave is re-signed or traded. You can't rebuild a franchise on one set of prospects, it takes at least 2 waves unless you are large market and can rebuild via FA.

[Invader3K]

I really don't think Melvin is on the hot seat at all. I could possibly see if the team does really terribly, like winning less than 20 games the rest of the season. Even then, I think he'll still get one more season. I just don't get the sense that Attanasio is displeased with him at all.

 

As far as the comments about, "A GM usually only gets to hire two managers", there have been strong indications that Melvin wasn't fully behind Yost's dismissal. So technically you could say he has only been fully behind one manager hiring.

[joepepsi]

If the Brewers change managers...my money is on Randolph being the guy the Brewers go with.

Because he's done so well coaching infield defense? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

GM don't usually get fired unless there's a ownership change or the team has a horrendous 100 loss type season. Macha's just on a one year deal, isn't he? They'll have to finish .500 or beyond to get the organization to renew his contract.

[EauClaireNWL]

Unless the Brewers finish at least .500 or better, I don't see Melvin picking up Macha's '11 option. Macha has been pretty meh, but Melvin probably won't fire before the end of the season.

 

Melvin probably gets one more year regardless considering his deal runs through 2012 unless the team completely goes in the tank and finishes under 70 wins.

[benji]

Melvin is here regardless of the 2nd half record. I certainly dont think Macha is the reason for the team's poor performance, I believe it appears that the team is not entirely behind Macha. Things like the stories of Braun going into Macha's office last year screaming (I don't know if true or not), and watching Fielder stare into the dugout after getting called out on a check swing make me wonder.