What is wrong with Eric Arnett?

[HiAndTight]

I'm hoping that in another week or two we're not hearing that Arnett is having to have TJ surgery or something.

I almost feel dirty for saying this, but am I the only one who's thinking this might POSSIBLY be a good thing?

 

Obviously you never want to hear about a young man suffering a serious injury, but this could at least account for the loss in velocity, and the remarkably bad control. College pitchers with mid 90's fastball's who have what scouts generally agree is a "plus-slider", and who, on top of that, dominated the collegiate level, seldom bust onto the scene by posting an ERA of 6.88 his second year out while splitting time between Rookie Ball and Low A, and you hear comments like, "cannot repeat his delivery, his delivery is all over the place", and his velocity is reportedly between 8-10 MPH lower than what he was topping out at in college, an elbow injury may actually be a good thing.

 

In that scenario you get it fixed and you can still be reasonably confident that he can come back and be an effective pitcher once again. In the other scenario, it's a matter of his stuff just not being major league caliber.

 

I know it goes against everything fans of young pitchers in their farm systems root for, but it would explain a whole lot and offer some measure of hope that it may improve moving forward.

[craigharmann]

I'm hoping that in another week or two we're not hearing that Arnett is having to have TJ surgery or something.

I almost feel dirty for saying this, but am I the only one who's thinking this might POSSIBLY be a good thing?

If it's the cause of Arnett's problems, sure. But my concern is that, like with a few other guys, they're DL'd for a minor arm problem, and the next announcement is they are having surgery and will be out for the season. It concerns me about the medical staff, major league and minor league.

[JohnBriggs12]

This ones on Brewer scouting. Arnett was very mediocre with Indiana his freshman and sophomore years. Somehow, his 14 starts as a junior convinced Brewer scouts that he was worthy of a first round pick. The Big Ten has never been a hot bed of baseball talent and it's been even less so in recent years. When was the last time you saw a Big Ten team make it to Omaha? That's not to say you can't get players out of there, but you have to take the competition into consideration when evaluating talent. This isn't the 1970's when Minnesota and Michigan had some teams with national prominence with guys like Dave Winfield and Paul Molitor.

 

Sometimes scouts are over influenced by physical appearance. That's why big impressive looking guys like Arnett go in round 1 and little guys like Roy Oswalt go much later. I remember thinking when I saw JM Gold pitch for Beloit about a dozen years ago, that the reason he was so dominant in high school was he was physically much bigger and stronger than typical high school kids. The problem is that as they move up, they no longer have that same physical advantage. It takes a lot more than a big athletic body to compete at the highest level.

[colbyjack]

I don't care for the Big Ten argument. Good players come from all over, and the Big Ten is plenty competitive. Illinois took two of three from eventual national champions LSU last year. Minnesota did the same against TCU. Michigan knocked David Price and Vanderbilt out of postseason play in '97. The conference from top to bottom may not be strong like it is in the Pac 10, SEC and ACC, but that doesn't mean the teams can't compete against the big boys.

 

And if you had seen Arnett pitch last year you would understand why he was labeled a first-round pick. He was lights out for much of the spring, legitimately throwing 94-96 with one of the best sliders in the draft. I don't think it's fair to knock the Brewers scouting dep't. for Arnett's failure. He's struggling, and something obviously happened between last spring and this summer, whether it be mental, physical or some combination of factors.

[Never Outhustled]

Isn't kind of hypacritical to say the Brewers should be open minded about a players size, but close-minded about what conference a player comes from?

 

I'm with Colby, Arnett was an awesome prospect. I seen him pitch in college, and I then pimped him pre-draft the same way I did with Braun and Lawrie. Did I suddenly go cross-eyed?

 

I've seen Arnett pitch on TV this year and twice live. He hasn't been the same guy. I don't know where his stuff or control went, but its not there. Hopefully its related to the injury.

[Tbadder]

I agree. There's no reason to beat up the scouting staff, though some might question picking a player who had 1 good year and 2 bad years, but still he seemed like a stud and baseball's real risky when it comes to drafting. On the other hand I don't think there's any reason not to call him a mistake or a bust. These things happen for whatever reason, injury, poor mental approach whatever--it's part and particle of young pitchers. I also think it's legitimate to say that Arnett has less of a chance to make the majors than a year ago. Now, it's also legit to say that he's still got a chance, but not to admit he has less of a chance seems naive to me. Poo happens and it's ridiculous to fingerpoint; it's the nature of the beast.

[ramssuperbowl99]

I agree. Slamming the Brewers staff for missing with a late 1st round draft pick (which was heralded at the time, mind you) is hindsight 20-20. Roughly half of these guys completely fail. But the fact that we have capitalized outside the 1st round (so far - knock on wood) with guys like Odorizzi, Heckathorn, and Scarpetta means that we don't have to worry about 1 pitching prospect.

As for Arnett, I think his offseason goal needs to be to simply get back to square one. Whether that's going back and looking at tape, getting MRI's done on his elbow/shoulder, getting back to conditioning, adjusting his approach on the mound, whatever, he needs to do it. A 23 year old in Wisconsin isn't a real prospect anymore, but that doesn't mean he can't make the majors or be of value to the Brewers as a starter or reliever. I, for one, am not ready to give up on a guy because of a season and a half of bad results. His stuff still profiles as very good, even though reports of his velocity and secondary offerings have varied this season, so if it takes him until he's 26 to make the majors, that's fine with me. Heck, that just means he's under team control for his prime years (26-32).

It's very easy to pout and scream at the front office which has essentially drafted/signed/claimed our entire MLB team for not getting this one right, but that doesn't make it the right thing to do. The Brewers haven't developed pitching very efficiently in the past, but it appears that the tide is turning in that regard. All we need to do is be patient for another year or so with everyone in the farm - especially Arnett.

[Invader3K]

I don't remember a ton of people around here panning the Arnett pick last season either. Hindsight is more than 20/20 when it comes to the MLB Draft, it seems.

[TooLiveBrew]

People were slamming the Brewers scouting department over Covey shortly before it came out he got scared off by his diabetes diagnosis & his family said the Brewers were more than fair. It's always much easier & short-term satisfactory to have somebody to flame/blame.

[Tedaldtada]

Unfortunatly, this site has become full of negative nellie's who like to kneejerk react to everything. It's one thing to be negative (realistic?) if you know all the facts, but that hardly seems the case lately.

 

Anyways, I think Arnett will be much better next year. Year 2 of getting comfy with mechanical adjustments will help a lot. So will injury diagnosis (if he is hurt). I am dead serious when I say I am willing to give Eric a half decade to figure things out. A guy with his stuff and pedigree deserves many chances. Seriously people, our own Colbyjack witnessed Arnett's abilities while he was in college. Our scouts are fine. In fact, I think they are very good.

[CheezWizHed]

Hopefully its related to the injury and he will recover from it 100%.

Fixed. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

I also am pretty surprised at how badly the scouting department has been bludgeoned based on the Covey thing. I'm not holding by breath on Arnett bouncing back (hopeful, but doubtful), but I don't blame the scouting department either. People sometimes just don't live up to expectations. You can't expect the scouts to bat 1.000...

[Thurston Fluff]

Sometimes scouts are over influenced by physical appearance. That's why big impressive looking guys like Arnett go in round 1 and little guys like Roy Oswalt go much later.

 

I think this is something the brewers plan on doing for the long run. I don't know if you read the article posted in the major league forum about Melvin's research about pitchers development or not but it had a segment about size and velocity being significant factors in increasing the odds of getting to the majors. Yes that means missing out on some guys like Billy Wagner and Tim Lincicum but if it improves the overall number of successful picks so be it.

 

Maybe this isn't the right place for this but I think it may be related to his struggles. Something I wondered about with Melvin's new organizational philosophy on pitchers is how long will it take for some of these guys to get back to where they were before all those changes take place? Kind of one step back to eventually take two forward type of thing. I also have to wonder if maybe those mechanical changes would cause short term pain or discomfort because it is using muscles in a different way that they are used to. Not as worried about long term injury, I know it's supposed to do the opposite, but short term dead arm, fatigue, discomfort type stuff.

 

It's always much easier & short-term satisfactory to have somebody to flame/blame.

 

May I have permission to steal this line the next time Fire the GM or Manager comes up?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Never Outhustled]

I don't think the Brewers will be completely ignoring short pitchers, they just drafted 5'11" Tyler Thornburg in the 3rd round. What they will be avoiding is short pitchers without plus velocity, like Will Inman or Randy Wolf.

[Never Outhustled]

Hopefully its related to the injury and he will recover from it 100%.

Fixed. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

Thanks, I do like that a lot better.

[homer]

I then pimped him pre-draft the same way I did with Braun and Lawrie.

And Brent Brewer

[Never Outhustled]

I then pimped him pre-draft the same way I did with Braun and Lawrie.

And Brent Brewer

 

 

I had never even heard of Brent Brewer pre-draft.

[TooLiveBrew]

It's always much easier & short-term satisfactory to have somebody to flame/blame.

 

May I have permission to steal this line the next time Fire the GM or Manager comes up?http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

http://cdnet.myxer.com/tn/c/917483/big/?t=20081007222556