How does Mark A see us contending in 2011? What is he thinking/planning?

[FVBrewerFan]

Ennder hit it on the head. The first step is realizing that we are better than we played early this season. Talent-wise, we're probably around a .500 team, so if we play to our lows (like we have this year), we're a low-to-mid-70's win team. If we play to our highs, we're a mid-to-upper-80's win team. One more solid pitcher gets us a 2011 starting rotation of Yo, #2 starter, Wolf, Parra and the best of Narveson, Davis or guys currently in the minors like Rivas. That's a fairly solid rotation, as Wolf should be a very solid #3 and Parra could be a ridiculous talent to call a #4.

 

I think we're fooling ourselves here. 1) This is not a mid-upper 80 win team even if they play to their highs. 2) Wolf is not a very solid #3, even if he plays to his norm. Our direct competition is from St. Louis, Garcia is their #3, Wolf isn't close to that. They really need two more arms that are 1/2 types to go along with Yo, and I don't think anyone they have can be projected into that role. Maybe a few years down the road with arms in A ball and lower, but I don't see anyone on the horizon who looks like a 1/2 SP.

 

So really, you have two choices. Keep doing what you're doing and hope you get "lucky" with a few 4/5 type starters. Or, you go for broke and spend a bunch of money on a stud pitecher, and then trade Fielder for another guy who has the tools to become a 1/2 type starter. I really don't know what else can be done. Until this organization can consistently produce it's own pitching talent it will be difficult at best to be a legit contender.

[monty57]

I think we're fooling ourselves here. 1) This is not a mid-upper 80 win team even if they play to their highs. 2) Wolf is not a very solid #3, even if he plays to his norm.

 

Wolf's career:

 

4.16 ERA, 1,448 K, 656 BB, 1785.2 IP, 1.33 WHIP. That's 2.21 K/BB and 7.3 K/9. There are currently 46 pitchers (min 100 IP) with an ERA better than 4.16, 48 pitchers with better than a 1.33 WHIP, 39 pitchers with K/BB better than 2.21 and 31 pitchers with more than 7.3 K/9. His "norm" is definitely a solid #3 starter.

 

If you want to only consider CC Sabathia's and Roy Halladay's of the world to be #1's, then maybe you're right. There are probably a handful of elite pitchers in the game. Very few teams have 2-3 elite pitchers in their rotation, and most of those have a payroll in the Yankees/Red Sox neighborhood.

 

With our offense, if we could find a #2 caliber starter, Yo stays healthy, Wolf reverts to his norms and Parra continues pitching the way he has been for the last couple months, we can compete in the NL Central. Our SP has settled down over the past month or so, and to no one's surprise, we're winning more games. We obviously have problems with our pitching staff, but they are much better than they showed early this season.

 

I don't think it's "fooling ourselves" to believe that if Wolf, Davis and Hoffman had pitched like last season, and Parra had been in the rotation from day 1, pitching like he has recently, we would be in the hunt, and probably on pace for a mid-to-upper 80's win season. If just Hoffman alone had pitched like last season, we'd probably be around .500 right now. Other than Corey Hart and Yo Gallardo, pretty much our whole team has played worse than they did a season ago, and that's reflected in our record.

 

So really, you have two choices. Keep doing what you're doing and hope you get "lucky" with a few 4/5 type starters. Or, you go for broke and spend a bunch of money on a stud pitecher, and then trade Fielder for another guy who has the tools to become a 1/2 type starter. I really don't know what else can be done. Until this organization can consistently produce it's own pitching talent it will be difficult at best to be a legit contender.

 

I know you're one of the regulars here, so you have to have paid some attention to the last few years' drafts. We are closing in on years where we will be able to field a fully home-grown rotation. I agree we should trade Fielder, but my worry with "spending a bunch of money on a stud pitcher" is that it would come with a 5-6 year time frame and eat up around 1/4 of our payroll, seriously limiting our flexibility and putting a the team's future on one shoulder. If we can find a stud starter who will sign for 2-3 years or pick one up in trade, I'm all for it.

[JohnBriggs12]

I believe this team as presently constituted could easily contend next year. Since June 1st, the pitching staff ERA is under 4. That was about the time that the dead wood was cleaned out and Hoffman returned to some form. They'll have to either re-sign Bush, or replace him somehow, but that shouldn't be too difficult. There are arms currently at AA that well could figure in the picture next year. Narveson is essentially still a rookie. He's got quality stuff. If he can learn to overcome his 1st inning issues, he can make a significant improvement.

 

Offensively, one player has exceeded expectations this year. One. I won't count Inglett because he hasn't had enough at bats. A couple are about where they were expected: Weeks and McGehee. Most are well below their career norms, including Braun and Fielder. Is Fielder really going to hit .160 with RISP for a second straight year? Is Braun going to slug 100 points below his career norms next year too? Escobar and Gomez/Cain are certainly capable of improvement.

 

Revamping the roster isn't going to assure anything. There's no guaranty that new names and faces will live up to expectations either.

 

They do need some changes. I don't think Macha's a terrible manager but he's not well suited to this group. Melvin needs to better assess what he has and avoid loading up with older veteran mediocrity.

 

Don Money deserves a shot at managing this team. Yeah, he's old for a rookie manager, but the guys he's had performed well for him in the minors. I think he'll get more out of this group.

[dadofandrew]

Briggs with a nice recap.

 

I see Inglett as a potential stopgap in '11 for Lawrie, I called him a poor man's Frank C when he was signed, and truer words I've never typed. Maybe a younger version of Frank C, as we saw FC at the twilight of his fine career.

 

As I often mention, they'll have oodles to spend next year, as huge money drops off, not to mention if Corey/Prince/Rickie (or 2 of 3) do not return. If they go cheap with Lawrie, Inglett, Gamel, and the like, that will leave huge money, maybe $30M, to spend on a couple arms and maybe a position player.

 

Mark A has said he doubts Marlins' style rebuilding would go over in MIL, and attendance/ratings wise, he's right. Doug has often talked about how Parra and Narveson will remain inexpensive next year. I think we could see an '11 team made up of 5 guys making $40M and 20 guys making the other $40M.

 

That's why I'm not concerned about the cost of a young pitcher they might get in trade. Hart will make $8M, Prince $12M, minimum. If you deal one and add a 3.30-3.70 ERA for the same money, no one will complain a bit.

[logan82]

Inglett wouldn't be a bad stopgap for half to a full season until Lawrie is ready. I will hate to see Weeks go when he does and I would like to see an extension for him explored(since it would probably take less than $8M a year to do it) but I think if he isn't willing to sign an extension we should part ways this offseason. The reason I want Weeks extended is because I think he would be cheaper than Fielder and Hart to keep around and I would like to see us keep at least one of the 3 so we don't have to rely on going to deep into our farm guys. The talent really starts to drop off and get sketchy after Gamel, Lawrie and Cain.(my opinion and I can probably be convinced otherwise) I am also not really high on McGehee keeping up his hitting and won't be until a good way into next season. I think Gomez will need to be replaced as well. Weeks, Fielder, Hart Gomez is quite a few players to replace from within but maybe we get a position guy back in trade somewhere, I think we would almost have to.

 

I absolutely want nothing to do with the post '10 FA pitchers. I don't care how much money we have. A waste of money is a waste of money. The only intriguing name is De La Rosa and he is already 29.

 

Starting Pitchers

Bronson Arroyo CIN ($11M club option)

Jeremy Bonderman

DET

David Bush MIL(yeah right)

Daniel Cabrera CWS

Jorge

De La Rosa COL

Jeff Francis COL ($7M club option)

Jon Garland SD ($6.75M mutual option)

Aaron Harang

CIN ($12.75M option)

Cliff Lee SEA

Ted Lilly CHC

Braden

Looper MIL

Noah Lowry SF

Kevin Millwood BAL

Jamie Moyer PHI

Vicente

Padilla LAD

Nate Robertson FLA

Ian Snell SEA ('11 $6.75M club option, '12 $9.25M club option)

Jeff Suppan STL

Javier Vazquez NYY

Brandon Webb ARI

Jake

Westbrook CLE

Dontrelle Willis ARZ

Chris Young SD ($8.5M club option)

[RockCoCougars]

Inglett wouldn't be a bad stopgap for half to a full season until Lawrie is ready. I will hate to see Weeks go when he does and I would like to see an extension for him explored(since it would probably take less than $8M a year to do it) but I think if he isn't willing to sign an extension we should part ways this offseason. The reason I want Weeks extended is because I think he would be cheaper than Fielder and Hart to keep around and I would like to see us keep at least one of the 3 so we don't have to rely on going to deep into our farm guys. The talent really starts to drop off and get sketchy after Gamel, Lawrie and Cain.(my opinion and I can probably be convinced otherwise) I am also not really high on McGehee keeping up his hitting and won't be until a good way into next season. I think Gomez will need to be replaced as well. Weeks, Fielder, Hart Gomez is quite a few players to replace from within but maybe we get a position guy back in trade somewhere, I think we would almost have to.

 

I absolutely want nothing to do with the post '10 FA pitchers. I don't care how much money we have. A waste of money is a waste of money. The only intriguing name is De La Rosa and he is already 29.

 

Starting Pitchers

Bronson Arroyo CIN ($11M club option)

Jeremy Bonderman

DET

David Bush MIL(yeah right)

Daniel Cabrera CWS

Jorge

De La Rosa COL

Jeff Francis COL ($7M club option)

Jon Garland SD ($6.75M mutual option)

Aaron Harang

CIN ($12.75M option)

Cliff Lee SEA

Ted Lilly CHC

Braden

Looper MIL

Noah Lowry SF

Kevin Millwood BAL

Jamie Moyer PHI

Vicente

Padilla LAD

Nate Robertson FLA

Ian Snell SEA ('11 $6.75M club option, '12 $9.25M club option)

Jeff Suppan STL

Javier Vazquez NYY

Brandon Webb ARI

Jake

Westbrook CLE

Dontrelle Willis ARZ

Chris Young SD ($8.5M club option)

I'm guessing that Gallardo and Wolf are the only two locks for the rotation next year, and I would pencil in Parra as well. I'd take a shot a Brandon Webb for the right price- depending on how he looks this year if/when he actually pitches. By the way, where is Benny on that list?....yeah I know.

[logan82]

By the way, where is Benny on that list?....yeah I know.

 

Burned again. Last time I posted this list I didn't take out the guys who got extensions. I wouldn't be surprised to see Sheets get a string of 1-2 year deals until he retires.

[danzig6767]

You can't just fault our pitching staff this year. Our defense has been awful. That also needs dramatic improvement in order for us to contend next year.

Yea our current infield defense is terrible, Braun is very below average in left, and Hart misplays balls all the time to go along with a very inaccurate arm. Gomez sure doesn't look like he'll ever hit well enough to play everyday in CF, whoever is the everyday guy in CF better be a quality defender if largely the same group of position players are brought back because i see no reason to believe that any of Fielder, Weeks, McGehee, Braun, or Hart will show significant defensive improvement next season.

[Never Outhustled]

You can't just fault our pitching staff this year. Our defense has been awful. That also needs dramatic improvement in order for us to contend next year.

Yea our current infield defense is terrible, Braun is very below average in left, and Hart misplays balls all the time to go along with a very inaccurate arm. Gomez sure doesn't look like he'll ever hit well enough to play everyday in CF, whoever is the everyday guy in CF better be a quality defender if largely the same group of position players are brought back because i see no reason to believe that any of Fielder, Weeks, McGehee, Braun, or Hart will show significant defensive improvement next season.

 

These 2 guys get it. This team needs a major overhaul, because it is wretched defensively. Any pitcher we acquire will underachieve here because of the defense played behind him.

 

We have a RF who should play LF, a 3B who should play 1B, a LF, 2B and 1B who should be DHs, and a SS and CF who should be in AAA.

 

I hold out hope that Braun, with his infield experience, could be a decent 1B. Then if we could add a good defensive RF, we could move Hart to LF, and our defense could improve to poor, up from pathetic.

[Never Outhustled]

If the Brewers really feel the need to sign another 30something FA, don't sign a pitcher, sign Jason werth, and trade Fielder and McGehee for pitching. The Phillies won't try to retain Werth because they have stud OF prospect Dominic Brown, who is having a monster season.

[pingman]

getting back to the original question, Mark A has to be thinking about putting fannies in the seats....and Milwaukee has proven that they will fill the stadium to see an exciting product (lineup filled with homerun hitters) ....therefore status quo might be his recipe....

 

keep in mind that it looks like the economy will get worse & that's a serious threat to Brewers' revenue..... not to mention Mark A must have serious concerns about his investment business

[FVBrewerFan]

I know you're one of the regulars here, so you have to have paid some attention to the last few years' drafts. We are closing in on years where we will be able to field a fully home-grown rotation. I agree we should trade Fielder, but my worry with "spending a bunch of money on a stud pitcher" is that it would come with a 5-6 year time frame and eat up around 1/4 of our payroll, seriously limiting our flexibility and putting a the team's future on one shoulder. If we can find a stud starter who will sign for 2-3 years or pick one up in trade, I'm all for it.

And we've been looking forward to a home-grown rotation for 10 years now. Back before the days of Gold, Neugebauer, Jones, etc. I certainly follow the draft and the minors, but we're still a long, long way from being able to claim a home-grown rotation is on the way. I wish it were so.

 

 

 

[monty57]

I agree on the defense part, and if there is any truth to the Hart rumors floating around, our defense could improve by bringing Cain up to play RF for the remainder of the season. We could also play Gomez more, as we're out of it anyways. An OF defense of Braun / Gomez / Cain wouldn't be terrible.

 

Of the SP list, I think we should make a run at Vazquez if he isn't too expensive. He strikes people out, limiting the damage our defense can do.

 

I really hope the scouts are right about Escobar, and he shows the glove we were all promised. The Gamel/McGehee situation will be interesting. I'm not big on moving players all over the field at the MLB level. If Fielder/Hart are going to be moved, Gamel should be moved to a new position at AAA soon, so he can get as much experience at the position as possible. Gamel isn't a good defender, so I'd think there would be a fairly steep learning curve at a new position, even if it's 1B. I'd rather he learn in AAA.

[sheethead]

Rant warning, proceed with caution. What do I think Attanasio's plan is for 2011? Stay the course... aka doing nothing.

 

Not since 2002 have I been this apathetic on the future of the Brewers. This collection of players barely looks like a team right now. They look like 25 guys doing their own thing. Prince trying to get his 40 home runs and get paid. Braun completely disinterested to the point of prematurely ending at-bats by swinging at pitches high schoolers rarely swing at and lollipoping throws back into the infield after he lazily does a spin and hop to load up his weak throw. Who knows what Gomez and Escobar are up to, but they are not MLB caliber this year. Hart is ramping up his production for his big payday, then how will he stay motivated? I like Lucroy, but his clutchiness, or lack thereof, appears to be fitting in with this group. I don't even want to get into the pitching.

 

First order of business... Fire Ken Macha

Second order of business... Fire Doug Melvin

Third... trade like its going out of style

 

Does Attanasio have the stones and baseball fire to do what needs to be done? I doubt it. The only slim amount of hope I am holding onto is these guys come back next year and kill in their YBFA (Year Before Free Agency). This year is completely lost. I am officially rooting for the Reds to take this division and return to the post season.

[brewmann04]

I believe the Owner wants to win and also make a profit however he has to know that his team is not good enough as is to make the playoffs.

[jerichoholicninja]

The team is in a really bad position to commit to a plan of action. They aren't bad enough and are too young/cheap to just outright blow it up but they aren't good enough to contend as is. Between the horrible defense and the stigma of Milwaukee no really really good FA pitcher will want to come here unless Mark gets desperate and secures the financial future of said pitcher's great grandchildren. Unfortunately as the team is right now that is what is needed the most.

[RockCoCougars]

The team is in a really bad position to commit to a plan of action. They aren't bad enough and are too young/cheap to just outright blow it up but they aren't good enough to contend as is. Between the horrible defense and the stigma of Milwaukee no really really good FA pitcher will want to come here unless Mark gets desperate and secures the financial future of said pitcher's great grandchildren. Unfortunately as the team is right now that is what is needed the most.

Sounds like what a lot of people were saying about the Bucks in January and now things are looking pretty good for them. They probably aren't a legit title contender, but at least they have a shot. My point is that things can turn quickly- some guys from within can step it up, and there are deals to be had for others players out there if you are smart.

 

The Brewers need to start with a new manager. This team is just not playing well for Macha, no emotion, poor fundamentals, mental mistakes, etc. He needs to go, the sooner the better. I think Mark A. needs to take a long look at Melvin as well. I'd wait until the offseason, offer Fielder one last extension at fair market value. If he doesn't sign on the dotted line, he needs to be moved. I would think that a match could be found for a solid starting pitcher in the same situation. Instead of blowing money on the safe free agent pitcher, gamble and bring in another guy with a past track record and some injury issues on a Gagne type one year deal. Someone like Webb or Bedard if his option isn't picked up. As I said in my earlier post, I'd move Hart to first, Weeks to center, and McGahee to second. Give Gamel a shot at third. That kid has the sweet left handed swing that this team needs, and Macha has buried him. Hopefully he can be saved. Use the 'Fielder money' to lock up both Weeks and Hart (both of whom I think would be amenable, Weeks due to his injury history and Hart due to his slump after turning down the first extension) and you've got yourself a nice offensive core for the next several years. Add some short term talent to the rotation, and hope some young arms can be worked in along the way. Get a little lucky and you could have a playoff team next year.

[pebadger]

Poor fundamentals has been an organizational defect for a long time. Certainly longer than Macha has been around. Not that I think Macha deserves to stay, but it seems to me that Macha has just been the ineffective pilot of a shiny but mechanically defective vessel.

 

That said, you don't have to be the best team in baseball to make the playoffs. You only have to beat the pretty underwhelming NL Central. I don't know if that is a greater reason to hope for a brighter future or to rue the fact that this team has failed to accomplish more in this stretch.

[FVBrewerFan]

Why not petition MLB to move the walls back? That would hide our not very good pitching staff, and allow them to play more small ball. We have Weeks, Escobar, Gomez, even Braun and Hart with some speed. I really believe the biggest single thing the Brewers could do to win more games is turn Miller Park into Petco.

 

And I don't buy the fact the Brewers have to bash 4 HRs every night for fans to show up. Let's try winning games 3-2 instead of 8-7. Hit and run. Steal bases. God forbid....bunt. Scratch across a couple runs a game, and they still have enough power to score more runs on the road.

[logan82]

Gamel isn't a good defender, so I'd think there would be a fairly steep learning curve at a new position, even if it's 1B. I'd rather he learn in AAA.

Gamel's problems from what posters have said and I saw of him last year seemed to be mostly his throwing. I think he would easily be able to field at 1B. I would leave him at 3B though since he will be around longer than McGehee and it isn't like McGehee is a good or even average defender.

[Never Outhustled]

logan3825]

monty57 wrote:

Gamel isn't a good defender, so I'd think there would be a fairly steep learning curve at a new position, even if it's 1B. I'd rather he learn in AAA.

Gamel's problems from what posters have said and I saw of him last year seemed to be mostly his throwing. I think he would easily be able to field at 1B. I would leave him at 3B though since he will be around longer than McGehee and it isn't like McGehee is a good or even average defender.

 

Agreed, I think Gamel is a better defender than McGehee.

[DHonks]

To answer the original question, I hear that if attendance drops low enough, Attanasio can move the team to Miami...we just need to lose more

[Ennder]

Let's try winning games 3-2 instead of 8-7. Hit and run. Steal bases. God forbid....bunt. Scratch across a couple runs a game, and they still have enough power to score more runs on the road.

 

That is losing baseball trying to play small ball to score 3 runs. Better pitching would certainly be welcomed as well as better defense but bunting and stealing bases is not anywhere near the problem with this team. The core issue is Jack Z and Melvin drafting for offense and nothing else and I get why they did it. The second issue is we are still early in the rebuild, we are still on the first set of players drafted and it is usually the 2nd set of players that are the ones that put you on the map long term. Rebuilding a sad organization is a 10-15 year project.

[trwi7]

To answer the original question, I hear that if attendance drops low enough, Attanasio can move the team to Miami...we just need to lose more

 

http://www.appetitefordeconstruction.com/sportsmajorleague.jpg

 

 

[Diskono]

There's a phrase that comes to mind. I believe there was a thread with the same title.

WOAH SOLVDD?