How does Mark A see us contending in 2011? What is he thinking/planning?

[The Truth]

Indications in some of the interviews Mark A has given recently show that he is in favor of keeping Fielder and Hart for 2011 and making a run at the playoffs next year.

 

My question is not whether that is a smart move, my question is: what is he thinking? In what way could this team possibly move from where they are now to playoffs next year? And I ask that in all seriousness.

 

We don't have the pitching. Is he thinking we're going to sign or trade for enough pitching in the off-season? How? Somehow are Parra and Narveson going to turn into Wainright and Garcia?

 

I'm asking seriously: is there any way this makes sense? Is there some pitching ace or two looming in free agency we could actually sign?

[Invader3K]

The only scenario I can see is signing a top flight ace (like Cliff Lee or someone like that, not an aging middle of the rotation veteran). I just don't see us competing dollar wise with a team like the Yankees (who will have two rotation spots possibly open next season, if I'm not mistaken).

 

I just hope he and Melvin realize there are only so many really good pitchers that are going to be out there, sort of like this past off-season. The odds of landing even one legitimate #1/2 type pitcher in free agency is very slim for Milwaukee.

[Ennder]

He realizes the team is better than it has played this year and if Parra improves some we are probably a #2 type starter away from serious contention.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, but with Parra where he is at age-wise, can you really count on him being a real #2 pitcher most of next season? I would love to think that, but the realist in me feels like he is more like a solid #4 starter at this point. I know lefties supposedly mature later; but I just don't like hoping for best case scenarios to work out, which seems to be what this club does all the time with its pitching staff.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't think Ennder was saying Parra will be a #2 next year. He was saying IF Parra improves, they STILL need a #2 type SP.

 

I don't see much changing next year. They'll try to have 7 arms capable of starting, with none of them being that good other than Gallardo. And sit back and hope you catch lightening in a bottle. Then if they are contending in July, Mark A will go out and trade for a big time arm. This is how they've operated for several years now, so I don't expect that to change.

 

Everyone, including Mark A. and Melvin, know that this team needs at least a #2 starter, probably a couple of them in that range to be a true contender. Realistically, they need a 1A and 1B and then a #2. But they (and we) understand they don't grow on trees. So the plan is to hang around with a good enough record into July, then rent a stud arm for the stretch run and cross your fingers.

[The Truth]

Rolling the dice on Parra is a tough bet.

 

Signing a Cliff Lee sounds like a serious long-shot, and a move that could hurt us financially long-term

 

Is Mark A thinking about having us trade away Lawrie, Gamel, and Alcides Escobar for pitching?

[Roscoe Chill]

There's a phrase that comes to mind. I believe there was a thread with the same title.

[RobertR]

The Brewers do have 3 All Stars. Their offense is fine. They won't be relying on a 42 year old closer. They should have some money to play with, with Hall, Suppan, Davis, Bush, Riske, and Hoffman off the books. And the division doesn't project to be particularly tough. So, I don't think it's farfetched to say that the Brewers could contend in 2011 with some shrewd moves.

 

But, I agree, they would need to add an impact starter, not mess around with the Doug Davis types.

 

Robert

[brewmann04]

The team needs a good quality #2 starter and maybe a good contact hitter and then we on the way to a possible WC

[endaround]

The Brewers have the number 1 offense in the NL when you take park effects into account (basically they and Cincy are right at the top). So yes if they had even the mediocre pitching Cicny has gotten they'd be right there.

[The Truth]

Good to know that some of you think this is realistic. And I suppose the "contend till July, trade for a rental arm at the deadline" scenario makes the most sense.

 

I just don't want to see them trade Brett Lawrie away for a one year window. I doubt they would trade Alcides Escobar, and I'm not sure how much they could for a Mat Gamel, Carlos Gomez or Lorenzo Cain type. So therein lies the question surrounding the reality that "you can't get something for nothing"

[Oldcity]

I won't be furious if they don't sell Hart or Fielder (especially without knowing what was offered), but I will be furious if they buy anything this season. No more Felipe Lopez, Scott Linebrink type trades when they have no chance this season.

[monty57]

Ennder hit it on the head. The first step is realizing that we are better than we played early this season. Talent-wise, we're probably around a .500 team, so if we play to our lows (like we have this year), we're a low-to-mid-70's win team. If we play to our highs, we're a mid-to-upper-80's win team. One more solid pitcher gets us a 2011 starting rotation of Yo, #2 starter, Wolf, Parra and the best of Narveson, Davis or guys currently in the minors like Rivas. That's a fairly solid rotation, as Wolf should be a very solid #3 and Parra could be a ridiculous talent to call a #4.

 

The #2 pitcher would most likely come in Free Agency (we should have around $40MM in free cash) or via trade (some mix of Fielder, Hart or prospects). Remembering that we're in the NL Central, the Cardinals shouldn't be significantly better next year than they are this year, and the Cubs have a lot of bad contracts to deal with, so we could easily be in the playoff hunt next season. I still think we have the talent to be a playoff team this year, but we played so poorly to start the season we shot all of our playoff chances, so we should use the rest of this year to be better prepared for next season.

 

That said, the decision on Hart & Fielder relies on what we could get in return in trade. If that return is greater than one season of the player plus potential draft picks, then we should trade them. In Hart's case, the draft picks may be worth the return, but the risk is him regressing next season, so it may be best to "sell high." In Fielder's case, I don't think the draft picks are worth the potential return, so I hope he is traded to maximize his value for the team. Our offense should be able to withstand the loss of someone like Fielder, as that could be somewhat alleviated either with Gamel, or by signing a FA in the offseason.

 

So, yes we can be a playoff contender next season, but we should probably still trade Fielder for the long-term good of the franchise.

[DougJones43]

So, what the thinking is, is that if we throw a pile of cash (or prospects) at a veteran impact pitcher, and everything goes right, we might have a shot at contending.

 

I don't like this plan. I'd much trade Fielder in the hopes of improving the club beyond 2011.

[adambr2]

I really, really hope Mark A. is just bluffing to put us in the best possible position should a deal be made.

 

There's a number of problems with Mark's argument, otherwise. First of all, Hart is probably one of the more overachieving players in baseball right now. Yeah, maybe he just figured it out at 28. Or maybe he's a player who is really much closer to his career OPS of .812 than this year's OPS of .923. Is that really a chance we are willing to take for the sake of ONE season?

 

Sure, we could contend next year if Parra breaks out, if we get a #2 pitcher, if someone steps up and shores up the bullpen, point is, there a lot of IF's -- and you could say that about a number of MLB teams, including us 3 months ago. I don't see any wisdom in passing up the long-term benefits of getting a good return for Prince and Hart just to have them in the lineup next year.

 

I love this organization, but I think Attanasio and Melvin tend to listen to their heart a lot more than their head. Sometimes I feel like they are a lot more like casual fans who want to see their team win now, than businessmen who look at the big picture.

[RockCoCougars]

I hope not. I hope he tells Melvin to trade every player of value for prospects. Then, next year, they can let the prospects develop at the minor league level - perhaps they could petition MLB to add a second AA team. Forfeit all the games at the major league level, and let all the other untradable veteran deals for next year expire, to free up payroll. This should make us a real force from 2014-2018 (hopefully I'm still alive). I'd gladly sacrifice a summer of baseball to increase the percentage chance at a championship.

[milwaukeesportsfan]

You can't just fault our pitching staff this year. Our defense has been awful. That also needs dramatic improvement in order for us to contend next year.

[GAME05]

we know not to put too much creedence into what DM tells us, so there's no reason to think that MA is giving away all his secrets, either. the best possible answer to keep fans coming to games is to say "we're keeping Fielder and Hart."

 

why do some have to be so defeatist that Milwaukee couldn't land a good 1/2 pitcher? Milwaukee's money is as good as anyone's, and we'll have a decent amount to work with, especially considering we don't have any FAs or giant arbitration increases on offense, and our bullpen is set for next year.

[adambr2]

GAME05 wrote:

---

we know not to put too much creedence into what DM tells us, so there's no reason to think that MA is giving away all his secrets, either. the best possible answer to keep fans coming to games is to say "we're keeping Fielder and Hart."

 

why do some have to be so defeatist that Milwaukee couldn't land a good 1/2 pitcher? Milwaukee's money is as good as anyone's, and we'll have a decent amount to work with, especially considering we don't have any FAs or giant arbitration increases on offense, and our bullpen is set for next year.

What FA 1/2 pitcher are you suggesting we go after? I think we can all pretty much agree that Cliff Lee isn't coming here as a FA. So what else is out there? Lilly? A 35 year old soft-tossing lefty coming off 2 career years. No thanks, seems right on par with our other bad FA pitching signings the last 5 years. Harang? Nope, not unless we can sign the 2005-2007 version of him. The only other guys out there with any possible #1/#2 upside are a handful of high risk/high reward guys, most of which were available last year....Sheets, Bedard, Harden, Webb.

 

Most experts would say that Wolf was either the 2nd or 3rd best pitcher on the FA market last offseason, the best signable one for us, and he's a #3, not a #1/#2.

 

Just because we have the money and need for a #1/#2 pitcher doesn't mean, A) That such a pitcher is even available on the FA market, and B) That they won't sign somewhere else.

[adambr2]

I hope not. I hope he tells Melvin to trade every player of value for prospects. Then, next year, they can let the prospects develop at the minor league level - perhaps they could petition MLB to add a second AA team. Forfeit all the games at the major league level, and let all the other untradable veteran deals for next year expire, to free up payroll. This should make us a real force from 2014-2018 (hopefully I'm still alive). I'd gladly sacrifice a summer of baseball to increase the percentage chance at a championship.

I didn't realize anyone was advocating for anything that drastic. But clearly, we have a lot of improving to do. We're 9 under right now and we've got Prince, we've got Hart, but we're still not close to being a contender.

 

I don't know why it's farfetched to believe that we could actually trade Fielder and improve, and not have to wait until 2014 to do so. You get a near-MLB ready high upside starter for Fielder, you get him into your rotation, you go out and get a 1st basemen like Adam Dunn to take over for Prince in free agency, and suddenly, you've got new names but better results. You've lost little to no offensive production, and you've added a high upside starting pitcher that your team so desperately needs.

 

I think I'd rather do something like that then just throw whatever money we have at the second-level FA pitchers on the market again next year, then wait for the bottom to fall out after 2011 when we didn't get anything for Prince OR Hart.

[pebadger]

My question is not whether that is a smart move, my question is: what is he thinking? In what way could this team possibly move from where they are now to playoffs next year? And I ask that in all seriousness.

This team plays in the worst division in baseball. Making the playoffs even with a not very good team can happen in this division in any given year, though it may be that you also need a really good team in some years. It's all in how everything falls out. If you keep Fielder, Hart, et al, and catch a few breaks, this division is there for the taking. The question then is whether it is worth risking the loss of those players with no talent in return to take that shot at winning the division. As weak as this division is, I think the gambler would say yes. Say you lose those guys and get not a lot in return. How much behind the rest of the Central are you? Probably not all that far.

 

I don't know that I totally buy all this argument, but it's certainly not all that far-fetched, either.

[MessiahRp]

I hope not. I hope he tells Melvin to trade every player of value for prospects. Then, next year, they can let the prospects develop at the minor league level - perhaps they could petition MLB to add a second AA team. Forfeit all the games at the major league level, and let all the other untradable veteran deals for next year expire, to free up payroll. This should make us a real force from 2014-2018 (hopefully I'm still alive). I'd gladly sacrifice a summer of baseball to increase the percentage chance at a championship.

I didn't realize anyone was advocating for anything that drastic. But clearly, we have a lot of improving to do. We're 9 under right now and we've got Prince, we've got Hart, but we're still not close to being a contender.

 

I don't know why it's farfetched to believe that we could actually trade Fielder and improve, and not have to wait until 2014 to do so. You get a near-MLB ready high upside starter for Fielder, you get him into your rotation, you go out and get a 1st basemen like Adam Dunn to take over for Prince in free agency, and suddenly, you've got new names but better results. You've lost little to no offensive production, and you've added a high upside starting pitcher that your team so desperately needs.

 

I think I'd rather do something like that then just throw whatever money we have at the second-level FA pitchers on the market again next year, then wait for the bottom to fall out after 2011 when we didn't get anything for Prince OR Hart.

Cliff Lee would cripple the Brewers for 3 years or so financially. I just don't see him as a smart move at all.

 

I'd much rather trade Prince for a couple pitching prospects. Hopefully a MLB ready arm and a really good prospect with high upside. The longer the Crew holds him though the less he might be worth. I honestly don't like the idea of signing a guy who historical trends say will decline dramatically because of body-type alone in a few years. I'd much prefer we move him and go with the aforementioned Adam Dunn scenario.

 

Also I have no issue moving Mat Gamel if they were able to acquire Dunn or some other solid 1B bat because I just don't believe that he's going to make much of a difference in Milwaukee. Especially if McGehee keeps playing well (800+ OPS).

 

Hopefully his hype could help net a decent arm as well.

 

As for Corey Hart, I suppose it would help to move him while he's hot but what would it cost to replace him at this point? The farm system doesn't seem to be crawling with replacements even for next year and then you'd have to spend in FA which could cost more than another year of Arby for Corey.

 

It's going to be a bit of a tough road especially considering there isn't a lot of big time minor league pitching prospects to work with in this system and Melvin has to practically restock down there.

 

[monty57]

I think we can all pretty much agree that Cliff Lee isn't coming here as a FA.

 

I wouldn't say that as a certainty. I doubt he'll come here, as it would probably be a mistake to sign him to the length of contract he'll probably demand, but I wouldn't say it's unfathomable to think that Mark A. / Doug Melvin use their free cash to bring Lee in. It may not be a good move, but if the Brewers want in on the bidding, they'll have the money to at least be in the hunt.

 

So, what the thinking is, is that if we throw a pile of cash (or prospects) at a veteran impact pitcher, and everything goes right, we might have a shot at contending.

 

I don't like this plan. I'd much trade Fielder in the hopes of improving the club beyond 2011.

 

I'd also rather trade Fielder, as I believe he will bring us back some good players that will make us better next year and into the future. I think the only really bad thing we could do would be to hold onto both Hart & Fielder and spend a lot of prospects and/or money to bring in someone who isn't a long-term answer. If Mark A is really thinking of putting it all on the line to win next year, I may think he's crazy, as it would seriously hamper the team for years to come, probably putting us in rebuilding mode for several years (depending on the prospects who would be traded). For example, if we traded Gamel for a 1-year rental pitcher, and then saw that pitcher walk after next year along with Fielder, Hart and Weeks, we would have a lot of work to do to rebuild the team.

 

However, I doubt he's that short-sighted. We can be competitive next year even if we trade Fielder and Hart, as we will still have 4/5 of our starting rotation, the good part of our bullpen, C, 2B, SS, 3B, LF and CF back next year plus MLB-ready guys like Gamel and Cain ready to step in. If we are worried about the offense, there will be plenty of 1B on the market this offseason (Dunn, Lee, Konerko, Berkman) that we could get for much les than Fielder would cost. This is also why I think Fielder should be traded this season as opposed to the offseason... if you wait for the offseason, there will be a lot of options for teams to pick up a decent 1B.

 

We will have $40-50MM in free cash if Hart and Fielder are traded. With most of the rest of the team back, we should be able to find some way to fill in the few holes we'll have. If we don't go the free agent route, I think picking up a higher-salaried pitcher with a couple years left on his contract (or arby years) could be a good option. We should also get some talent back in the Fielder & Hart trades that could help us.

[monty57]

Cliff Lee would cripple the Brewers for 3 years or so financially. I just don't see him as a smart move at all.

 

For three years, they could probably do it. The problem is someone will probably offer him a five-year deal, which I'd much rather the Brewers stay away from.

 

As for Corey Hart, I suppose it would help to move him while he's hot but what would it cost to replace him at this point? The farm system doesn't seem to be crawling with replacements even for next year and then you'd have to spend in FA which could cost more than another year of Arby for Corey.

 

Corey's biggest problem is his inconsistency. If he puts up a high-.800/low-.900 OPS, he'll definitely be worth the $7-8MM he'll receive, and we'd get comp picks for him. If he falls back to the .750 OPS he's been the last few seasons, he'll be well overpaid. If we can get a decent return for him, trade him. If not, we're now in a position where we'll need to offer him arby and hope this half-season isn't an anomoly. We could go with an OF of Braun / Gomez / Cain, but I'd really like to see Gomez get everyday play this year to see if he can straighten things our offensively before I'd want to fully commit to him as CF next year. If he's only a RH platoon player, then we might as well put Cain in CF next year and hold onto Corey.

 

It's going to be a bit of a tough road especially considering there isn't a lot of big time minor league pitching prospects to work with in this system and Melvin has to practically restock down there.

 

I may be mis-reading this. Our lower level minor league teams have a lot of pitching, with players like Rivas possibly ready for the MLB rotation next year, and we should have a fully homegrown rotation in a few years. You can never have too much pitching, and I would be happy to see some young, high-upside arms added through trades this season, but we are finally starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel as far as home-grown pitching.

[RockCoCougars]

I hope not. I hope he tells Melvin to trade every player of value for prospects. Then, next year, they can let the prospects develop at the minor league level - perhaps they could petition MLB to add a second AA team. Forfeit all the games at the major league level, and let all the other untradable veteran deals for next year expire, to free up payroll. This should make us a real force from 2014-2018 (hopefully I'm still alive). I'd gladly sacrifice a summer of baseball to increase the percentage chance at a championship.

I didn't realize anyone was advocating for anything that drastic. But clearly, we have a lot of improving to do. We're 9 under right now and we've got Prince, we've got Hart, but we're still not close to being a contender.

 

I don't know why it's farfetched to believe that we could actually trade Fielder and improve, and not have to wait until 2014 to do so. You get a near-MLB ready high upside starter for Fielder, you get him into your rotation, you go out and get a 1st basemen like Adam Dunn to take over for Prince in free agency, and suddenly, you've got new names but better results. You've lost little to no offensive production, and you've added a high upside starting pitcher that your team so desperately needs.

 

I think I'd rather do something like that then just throw whatever money we have at the second-level FA pitchers on the market again next year, then wait for the bottom to fall out after 2011 when we didn't get anything for Prince OR Hart.

I have absolutely no problem with the idea of trading Fielder, but as I've said on other posts, I'm not on board with settling and trading him at the deadline for a package of prospects. As I've said, I would wait until the offseason, if Boras won't extend at that point, then move him. I'd be willing to be that some 'situations' will pop up somewhere, and a few good starters will be on the trading block then, I'd even take a chance on an impending free agent. Going further, I think you lock up Weeks and Hart. Move Hart to first and Weeks to center next season. I'm convinced that McGahee is the real deal. Move him to second, and give Gamel a chance at third. There should be plenty of decent corner OF in the free agency market for relatively cheap to put rightfield - some lefty hitting vet with a good arm and a little pop in his bat would be ideal. If you could make these moves, with all the money coming off the books, there should still be a little money left to pick up a risky high upside guy for the starting rotation (like Harden, Durcherer, Bedard and Sheets were this year). Take a gamble on one of them on a year deal, and hope some of the young guys are ready to step in for 2012.

 

Oh yeah, most importantly, get a new manager too. Make these moves, and I'm thinking in this division, you have an instant contender. I'm not on board for trading both Hart and Fielder for young pitching because there are really no legit guys to step in for them when they are moved.