Hart Trade Thread: Latest-- Does Hart's injury mean no deal?

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://sportsillustrated..../index.html?eref=writers

 

Interesting stuff from Heyman. Hart is #4 ranked in available players at deadline.

[brewmann04]

i have a hard time thinking either will be dealt does not seems to be a good market now and wait till the off season,

[Weirdos19]

If the Brewers offer an extension to Hart, I would think it would be incentive laden.

 

Ex: 4years 36million guaranteed. An extra 500k each for 500AB, 25HR, 100RBI, 20SB. Maybe 100K for Each all star appearance, with bonuses for MVP votes, playoff appearances, WS appearances, etc.

 

If he had four years like this year, he could make close to 11 mil per season. If he doesn't, he gets 9 mil.

[Invader3K]

Weirdos, those kinds of incentives are fairly typical for any long term contract. They probably wouldn't make or break Hart re-signing with the club. I think 4 years/$36 million wouldn't be out of line; though I would still be nervous about it like I said earlier.

[3Putt]

Since Hart admitted dogging it last year and early this year an incentive laden contract is the way to go. Still, I'm betting somebody will make us an offer we can't refuse this year. His numbers are too good for a pennant contender to ignore even if it's a short term trend.

[Never Outhustled]

If the Brewers offer an extension to Hart, I would think it would be incentive laden.

 

Ex: 4years 36million guaranteed. An extra 500k each for 500AB, 25HR, 100RBI, 20SB. Maybe 100K for Each all star appearance, with bonuses for MVP votes, playoff appearances, WS appearances, etc.

 

If he had four years like this year, he could make close to 11 mil per season. If he doesn't, he gets 9 mil.

 

MLB doesn't allow incentives for production, only playing time and awards.

[monty57]

From the SI article PrinceEatMeat linked regarding Prince Fielder:

 

"I'd be surprised if they move him,'' said another GM who suspects the Brewers will give the Fielder-Ryan Braun combo one more chance in 2011.

 

I hope this "other GM" is wrong, as to me, that's the absolute worst-case scenario. If they are indeed "giving the Fielder-Braun combo one more chance in 2011," then I hope they break the bank going after someone like Cliff Lee and then do an absolute Florida Marlins-style fire sale after the season. Unless some of our prospects really step up quickly, if we're going to lose Fielder, Hart and Weeks for draft picks, we could have some really un-fun seasons starting in 2012.

 

Which would be the better slogan for next year's Brewers?

 

"2011: Selling our future on a small chance at the playoffs" or "We haven't been .500 with this team for two seasons, but the same group will make the playoffs this year... just watch... please, watch... we need the ticket sales"

 

If you are going to sell from your minor leagues to win in some years, then sometimes you have to sell from your major league team to bolster your future. Right now I believe one of two things will happen... we'll sell everyone (Fielder, Hart, Edmonds, Bush, Counsell, Hoffman, etc) preparing for next year or we will see 2009 all over again, selling no one, trading for a piece or two to "make a run for it," and seeing the same team trot out on the field next year, with the addition of another 30-something FA pitcher signed with the money we've been paying Suppan.

 

If we play well in this current stretch against the major league's worst teams, I'd bet on the latter, and that saddens me.

[Invader3K]

Cliff Lee is a pipe dream. The spurned Yankees, still mad about not finalizing that trade with Zdurencik, are going to come after Lee with a vengeance in the off-season. After him, the FA SP market drops off dramatically.

 

Melvin should learn his lesson after this year and not try to build the pitching staff (bullpen and rotation), through free agency. It just doesn't work for a small market team.

 

And yeah, I really don't want to see this year be like the last one where the front office pretends to be in contention, but then doesn't make any truly meaningful moves. Mortgaging the future isn't worth a couple hundred thousand extra ticket sales this season.

[monty57]

I know Cliff Lee is very, very doubtful to come to the Brewers. I just hope the Brewers don't decide that the same team that has been sub-.500 for two seasons will magically be a World Series contender next year if we don't trade Hart/Fielder.

 

If we do make what in my opinion is a mistake, and hold onto Hart & Fielder for 2011, we need to do something major somewhere else and make every effort to put together a World Series contender. The only real chance of that is somehow finding one or two top end pitchers. Since this would be nearly impossible to do, our only chance is a "pipe dream scenario." Something like offering Lee the money we apparently have been holding back for CC Sabathia / Prince Fielder. Then maybe we trade Gamel and Odorizzi to get Haren, and we have our one-and-only shot at a World Series with a rotation of Lee, Yo, Haren, Wolf, Parra and basically the same offense we have this season, with Cain in CF instead of Gomez.

 

We'd lose Fielder, Weeks and Hart after the season, and wouldn't have any money to better our team, since we'd be spending so much on Lee, Haren, Wolf, Yo, Braun, etc, so we'd either hope that our deplered rank of prospects would step in, or we'd need to firesale. Basically, the Florida Marlins scenario. Build a decent base, overpay and lose money for one season, and then sell off and start over. Not what I'd like to do, and probably not very realistic, but to me it would be better than holding onto Hart and Fielder and going into 2011 with basically the same team we currently have and hoping the loss of Hoffman, Suppan and Davis along with the likely addition of some other veteran FA SP will be enough to push us into the playoffs.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I know Cliff Lee is very, very doubtful to come to the Brewers. I just hope the Brewers don't decide that the same team that has been sub-.500 for two seasons will magically be a World Series contender next year if we don't trade Hart/Fielder.

 

If we do make what in my opinion is a mistake, and hold onto Hart & Fielder for 2011, we need to do something major somewhere else and make every effort to put together a World Series contender. The only real chance of that is somehow finding one or two top end pitchers. Since this would be nearly impossible to do, our only chance is a "pipe dream scenario." Something like offering Lee the money we apparently have been holding back for CC Sabathia / Prince Fielder. Then maybe we trade Gamel and Odorizzi to get Haren, and we have our one-and-only shot at a World Series with a rotation of Lee, Yo, Haren, Wolf, Parra and basically the same offense we have this season, with Cain in CF instead of Gomez.

 

We'd lose Fielder, Weeks and Hart after the season, and wouldn't have any money to better our team, since we'd be spending so much on Lee, Haren, Wolf, Yo, Braun, etc, so we'd either hope that our deplered rank of prospects would step in, or we'd need to firesale. Basically, the Florida Marlins scenario. Build a decent base, overpay and lose money for one season, and then sell off and start over. Not what I'd like to do, and probably not very realistic, but to me it would be better than holding onto Hart and Fielder and going into 2011 with basically the same team we currently have and hoping the loss of Hoffman, Suppan and Davis along with the likely addition of some other veteran FA SP will be enough to push us into the playoffs.

I think this is what it would take, and even then I don't know if we could make the World Series. It's too big of a risk to mortgage the future. I don't see Doug and Mark taking that kind of risk at this point. We'd have a better chance trying to build a young team that would be able to compete for a few years at a time rather than a one-and-done team like that.

[TooLiveBrew]

We'd lose Fielder, Weeks and Hart after the season, and wouldn't have any money to better our team, since we'd be spending so much on Lee, Haren, Wolf, Yo, Braun, etc, so we'd either hope that our deplered rank of prospects would step in, or we'd need to firesale. Basically, the Florida Marlins scenario. Build a decent base, overpay and lose money for one season, and then sell off and start over. Not what I'd like to do, and probably not very realistic

 

It's an interesting take, monty. Honestly, I think it would actually be kind of fun, as long as we were guaranteed the firesale.

[igor67]

I guess I don't see the actual going for broke part of that scenario. If you add Haren, it certainly costs you some prospects, but your payroll is probably about the same as this year. There is a lot of salary moving off the books Hoffman would basically cover arby raises to Prince and Hart, Suppan covers Haren, Riske, Bush, and Hall more than cover the rest of the arby pool.

[PrinceEatMeat]

The problem with this scenario is that a lot of casual fans would be pissed when we sell off the team after the World Series run. Will Attanasio want that to happen? I doubt it. Although you could also look at the fact that ticket sales would be insanely high for next year just with advanced sales alone. So there's a million ways to look at it. I just don't see our front office going in this direction.

[monty57]

I just don't see our front office going in this direction.

 

I don't either... as I mentioned, this was (in my mind) an unrealistic scenario that would be the only way "playing for 2011" would make sense to me.

 

My preferred scenario of the probable options would be for the Brewers to trade Hart and Fielder before next year. From these trades, I'd hope to get one young starter for next year's rotation, and as much talent above and beyond that (hitting or pitching) as possible. Use the $40MM or so in free cash from expiring contracts / trading Hart & Fielder and either pick up decent talent in trade or free agency. Go into next season with a good, young core of talent that could compete next year and into the future.

 

My least favoite "probable" scenario would be for the Brewers to win a few games against Pitt, Wash, etc and decide they can "go for it" this year, and then decide that they have enough talent going into next season that they can hold onto Prince and Hart, add one mid-tier veteran arm and compete. Lose Hart, Fielder and Weeks at the end of the year for draft picks, be stuck with a bad contract to the above signed mid-tier veteran arm (along with a potentially bad contract in Wolf), and hope beyond hope that the prospects can step in and somehow make up for losing the core of our team without getting anything back that will help for many years.

 

It does seem that Mark A & Melvin feel Prince is the type talent that can get them the World Series. If Barry Bonds in his steroid-induced 73 HR season wasn't enough to win a World Series, then no one player will ever be enough to do it alone. Prince and Boras have made it obvious that he's gone after next season, so if we want a World Series with Prince, it has to be next year, and I don't see that as realistic. It's possible, but far-fetched, i.e. my "pipe dream scenario" listed above.

 

In my mind, Prince and Hart's best value to the Brewers will be in what they'll bring in trade. Wins this season just aren't as important for the current makeup of the Brewers as wins over the next six seasons, so "high upside" prospects are more valueable than another year of Hart/Prince. For a team that actually has a legitimate shot at the playoffs this year, wins now are more important than wins in the future, so Hart & Prince would be more valueable to them than prospects. I really hope Melvin finds the match and makes the deal. Based on the above referenced Sports Illustrated article, there isn't a lot of quality out there in the trading market, but we have two of the top four hitters available. Someone will make a valid offer to us, and Melvin needs to look at the offers objectively and make the best deal. Of course we don't take table scraps in return, but the rumored players (Minor, Garza, Wade Davis, etc) are far from table scraps. If Melvin expects a lot more than that for Hart, he's not looking objectively.

[ListachRides]

MLBTraderumors suggests that Phillies might trade Werth to Rays soon. That would eliminate one of our suitors for Corey - arguably the one with the best pieces to spare.

[Never Outhustled]

I guess I don't see the actual going for broke part of that scenario. If you add Haren, it certainly costs you some prospects, but your payroll is probably about the same as this year. There is a lot of salary moving off the books Hoffman would basically cover arby raises to Prince and Hart, Suppan covers Haren, Riske, Bush, and Hall more than cover the rest of the arby pool.

 

This is true, plus Zaun, Gerut, and Doug Davis come off the books. The Brewers could add Haren and still have about $10 million to spend.

[Invader3K]

Haren apparently has a partial NTC, and would prefer to be dealt to a West Coast team. Not sure if dealing for him is realistic at all.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think Jeremy Bonderman might be a good value FA pickup. He'll only be 28 and he seems to be over the shoulder problems that plagued him in 2008 and 2009 as he hasn't missed a start this year. His K rate is down slightly, but his WHIP and K/BB ratios are at his career norms and aren't bad at all.

 

Before everyone starts shouting about his career 4.80 ERA, keep in mind that's in the AL. Also if you're concerned about his pitching in a pitchers park, career wise he's actually been better on the road.

[bill hAll Star]

I think Jeremy Bonderman might be a good value FA pickup. He'll only be 28 and he seems to be over the shoulder problems that plagued him in 2008 and 2009 as he hasn't missed a start this year. His K rate is down slightly, but his WHIP and K/BB ratios are at his career norms and aren't bad at all.

 

Before everyone starts shouting about his career 4.80 ERA, keep in mind that's in the AL. Also if you're concerned about his pitching in a pitchers park, career wise he's actually been better on the road.

We need high K rates. We have quite possibly the worst defense in baseball. I wouldn't be massively opposed, but to me signing him would be just more rearranging the deck chairs on the titanic. He might slot as a nice #4 or #5 and at the right value, fine. However, I wouldn't put a ton of money on it happening.

 

One thing to think about is they have a slightly above-average Inge manning the hot corner and we have MLB worst McGehee. More balls in play = worse results.

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/98947044.html

 

Market accelerating for Hart.

[TooLiveBrew]

Olney also said the market appears to be picking up for Brewers rightfielder Corey Hart, listing the usual suspects, San Francisco, Tampa Bay, San Diego, Atlanta, etc. And FOX's Jon Paul Morosi notes the Giants' continued interest in Hart. Question is: will SF include Jonathan Sanchez or Madison Bumgarner in a deal?

I really, really wish we'd stop hearing the either/or talk on Sanchez & Bumgarner. Bumgarner is a much more valuable commodity. I really hope this doesn't mean that Melvin is asking for either one or the other. I'd rather him focus on Bumgarner, & if the Giants won't do that, move on. There really appears to be some potential competition for Hart, so Melvin shouldn't settle.

[dadofandrew]

Allow me to say I have no problem picking up Sanchez, a lefty who wasn't bad when he was raw, and is still improving. Bumgarner is not going anywhere, unless Lawrie is included. Adding a solid #2/3 SP for a guy many felt should have been non-tendered (and now feel is worth an untouchable like Bumgarner) seems like a fine return to me. If you were forced to name 10 pitchers under 27 who could breakout, Sanchez would all but certainly be one of them (depending on your definition of "breakout", Yo might be too).

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think Sanchez will realistically get any better than he is right now. His xFIP has been right around 4.20 each of the past three seasons, and is 4.28 right now. I think you're right that he's probably the more fair return for Hart than Bumgarner, but what I want is Melvin to use the leverage he has in there likely being multiple suitors for Hart.

[Never Outhustled]

. If you were forced to name 10 pitchers under 27 who could breakout, Sanchez would all but certainly be one of them

 

Then your answer would be disqualified, as Sanchez turns 28 in a few months. He's not young, and will likely always be a bullpen killer.

[Invader3K]

Then your answer would be disqualified, as Sanchez turns 28 in a few months. He's not young, and will likely always be a bullpen killer.

So then he'll fit right in here!