Hart Trade Thread: Latest-- Does Hart's injury mean no deal?

[wibadgers23]

Little blurb from mlbtr:

The San Diego Union Tribune's Tim Sullivan says that manager Bud Black made a subtle pitch to Corey Hart, a known Padres target, at the Home Run Derby, opining to the Milwaukee right fielder that a lot of his home runs would also have gone out in Petco Park to gauge a reaction. While Hart kept an even keel and simply replied, "Yeah, they would have," Black says he wanted Hart to know that the Padres were interested.

[jwill535]

Little blurb from mlbtr:

The San Diego Union Tribune's Tim Sullivan says that manager Bud Black made a subtle pitch to Corey Hart, a known Padres target, at the Home Run Derby, opining to the Milwaukee right fielder that a lot of his home runs would also have gone out in Petco Park to gauge a reaction. While Hart kept an even keel and simply replied, "Yeah, they would have," Black says he wanted Hart to know that the Padres were interested.

Not that I really care, but if this isnt an example of tampering, I dont know what is. Granted, he would need to be traded and is not up to Hart where he goes.

[Invader3K]

I also saw in that same article that Hart "does not want to be on the trading block." If so, why doesn't he have his agent talk to Melvin about an extension?

[And That]

Could be he wants to be a free agent after next season. I think the problem with holding on to Hart "for the long haul" is that, even if he truly has turned things around and keeps up this torrid pace for the next year and a half, there's no way the Brewers are going to be able to resign him. It's not like Hart and the Brewers have had a lot of success coming to terms while he's been under team control, so how would it be any easier once he became a free agent?

[kramnoj]

Hart shouldn't just capitulate to the Brewers because they don't want to pay him what he thinks he's worth.

 

The Brewers could be in a weird position this offseason where they won't be able to maximize their budget. They will have the money to retain Hart if they choose to.

[Baldkin]

Related to that fear, I think the team as currently constructed is very much in a hard place to improve to a consistent 90-win team without major changes.

How many teams are consistent 90-win teams?

3? Red Sox, Yankees, Angels?

No one wins 90 every year without a 100+ million dollar payroll.

 

Last 5 years:

5 89-win seasons: Yankees, Angels

4: Red Sox

3: Phillies, White Sox

2: Cardinals, Rockies, Indians, Mets

1: A's, Tigers, Twins, Braves, Padres, DBacks, Brewers, Cubs, Dodgers, Rays

[GB12]

Yeah, Hart's going to want to be paid for how he is producing right now. If we don't trade him I'd wait until he regresses next year before we re-sign him.

[uwisfan]

Could be he wants to be a free agent after next season. I think the problem with holding on to Hart "for the long haul" is that, even if he truly has turned things around and keeps up this torrid pace for the next year and a half, there's no way the Brewers are going to be able to resign him. It's not like Hart and the Brewers have had a lot of success coming to terms while he's been under team control, so how would it be any easier once he became a free agent?

yes, but right now, nobody is offering any pitching with upside for him. What good would it do the Brewers to get another #4 starter to add to their glut of #4 starters between the majors & minors.

 

The Brewers next year could make a nice run, and then they have to either hope Lawrie or Gamel can play RF and are ready to hit, or they are could be the ones out shopping for another RF come trade deadline next year in a playoff run.

 

If Melvin turns down someone they consider a likely #4, then they really havent lost anything. Better to take your chances with Hart if that is the case. They will have the option of trading Hart both in the offseason and at the deadline next year. If he's having a good year again next year, they could turn him into draft picks with more upside than the guys we've heard of so far.

[brains and braun]

Which guys don't have upside? I mean, I'm not crazy about J. Sanchez, but virtually every other pitcher mentioned has been an upside guy. Minor, Moore, Wade Davis....What's not to like here? These are obviously just rumors, but if you're the Brewers and the rumors are true, I don't see any way you can justify Hart back in Milwaukee next season.

[Team Canada]

I also saw in that same article that Hart "does not want to be on the trading block." If so, why doesn't he have his agent talk to Melvin about an extension?

From Tom's blog:

 

Hart is well aware of the rumors as he prepares for All-Star Home Run Derby tonight at Angel Stadium. But the resurgent rightfielder remains adamant that he wants to stay with the Brewers.

 

In fact, before agreeing to any deal with another club, Hart would like the Brewers to make an offer for a contract extension. He can be a free agent after 2011 and is making $4.8 million after beating the club in arbitration last winter.

 

"I do want to stay," said Hart. "I've told Doug (Melvin) and Gord (Ash) that. I hope before they trade me they give me something to think about, something to say yes or no to. That hasn't happened yet."

 

Though Hart sounds eager, the Brewers never have had much luck agreeing with agent Jeff Berry about his worth. That's how the sides ended up in arbitration last winter.

 

[JohnBriggs12]

Which guys don't have upside? I mean, I'm not crazy about J. Sanchez, but virtually every other pitcher mentioned has been an upside guy. Minor, Moore, Wade Davis....What's not to like here? These are obviously just rumors, but if you're the Brewers and the rumors are true, I don't see any way you can justify Hart back in Milwaukee next season.

How about going into next season with the best lineup in the NL without having to trade anyone? That's assuming Cain in CF of course.

 

This team dug it's hole the first 6 weeks. That was due to the failure of Hoffman and Hawkins, failures by Davis and Suppan, less than expected performance from Wolf and slow offensive start by Fielder. They are .500 since June 1 with little offensive contribution from Braun and still not much with men on base from Fielder.

 

All of those are fixable or have been fixed. Had Melvin signed Garland instead of Davis, and Trevor Hoffman been what he was for one more season, this team is right with the Reds and Cards.

 

If they have the money to offer Fielder $100 million, they have the money to sign Hart. He'd probably take half that over 4 years. What they can't do is act afraid because they got burned on Bill Hall. You can't operate that way and win.

 

All the "arms with upside" being discussed are just that. They aren't being offered the "sure things". Teams wanting Hart are thinking they can get him for guys with number 3 potential. SF isn't parting with Bumgarner.

 

2011 should not be sacrificed in hopes that somehow this makes them better in 2014. That's pipedream stuff. Let the Pirates continue being the team that can only sell the distant future.

[Invader3K]

If they have the money to offer Fielder $100 million, they have the money to sign Hart. He'd probably take half that over 4 years. What they can't do is act afraid because they got burned on Bill Hall. You can't operate that way and win.

 

4 years/$50 million for Hart? That seems high for me. I would see if he'd take something like 4 years/$32 million. I'd probably go up to $40 million total, but even then, I'd be very nervous about doing it. Hart probably has less chance to regress than Hall, but we have to remember how bad Hart was last season. Maybe he really has turned a corner. He certainly doesn't seem like he's just "lucky" this year. I also think the comparisons to Jayson Werth may be valid, based on the body type and age similarity.

[paul253]

2011 should not be sacrificed in hopes that somehow this makes them

better in 2014.

 

Yeah but you can't sacrifice 2012, 2013, and 2014 hoping to have one last run in 2011 with more or less the same team that hasn't done anything without CC Sabathia. You may have the best lineup in 2011 but if you don't resign Fielder, Hart and/or Weeks, the lineup will take a huge step backwards after 2011 and you still won't have pitching.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, I agree paul. I think the team can still be set up nicely for 2011 with one or two judicious trades. No one is really calling for selling off the entire team. We need to upgrade pitching through trades.

 

There just isn't going to be much starting pitching on the FA market this winter that will be attainable without overpaying. That's why I (and others) feel the rotation needs to be upgraded by trading pieces that are getting expensive and near FA. Cliff Lee is most likely a Yankee, and then there is a big drop off in quality talent that will be available. There will be quite a few good position players available, though. Melvin has a better track record signing FA position players anyway.

[kramnoj]

That was due to the failure of Hoffman and Hawkins, failures by Davis and Suppan

 

Suppan didn't really have anything to do with where the Brewers are right now. In his loss as a starter, the Brewers only scored one run. True, Suppan didn't perform well in that game, but he could have given up 2 runs and he still would have the same loss. In his one loss as a reliever, Braddock gave up the same number of runs.

[Invader3K]

Suppan being a starter going into the season was more of a symptom of the problem than the problem itself. The relievers really underperformed as a whole at the beginning of the season. Obviously Hoffman in particular cost this team a lot of ground.

[brewmann04]

what funny if hart wants to stay then he needs to tell his agent ets get something done here

[BADGERJOBOB]

That was due to the failure of Hoffman and Hawkins, failures by Davis and Suppan

 

Suppan didn't really have anything to do with where the Brewers are right now. In his loss as a starter, the Brewers only scored one run. True, Suppan didn't perform well in that game, but he could have given up 2 runs and he still would have the same loss. In his one loss as a reliever, Braddock gave up the same number of runs.

You can't just look at his two losses and say well his bad stat lines didn't have an outcome on the game. You have to look at his overall affect on our pitching staff and the roster. Him taking a pitching spot on this team cost the Brewers games. In other words, would we have won more games if we had another effective pitcher in the bullpen. If Braddock was here all year does he get used in the 7th or 8th inning to keep a lead or stay in a close game? Does Hoffman or Hawkins have a shorter leash with another arm in the bullpen, etc. Suppan has been horrible and was never used in meaningful games because he was horrible. He contributed to our bullpen being overused. He cost us games, I just don't think anyone is really able to quantify how many games that might be. What I can say is that we would be less then 9 or 10 games back that we are now.

 

[PrinceEatMeat]

what funny if hart wants to stay then he needs to tell his agent ets get something done here

Problem is that his agent and Melvin don't get along. Don't think that'll work out.

[BREWCREW5]

With the comments that I have read from earlier on about how Hart was not giving it his full effort before...he is the last player I want to lock up long term into a contract. He will get his money and go back into "retired but still playing". Packer fans remember Cletidus Hunt.

[Hate those Rodents]

I'd like to know if Atlanta will give us Minor for Hart if we take Kawakami in the deal as well. I'd do that and then ship out Dave Bush. Makes a ton of sense if they'd do it.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'd like to know if Atlanta will give us Minor for Hart if we take Kawakami in the deal as well. I'd do that and then ship out Dave Bush. Makes a ton of sense if they'd do it.

Yeah I'd take that deal. Kawakami would have close to the same production as Bush for the rest of the season, and with Bush pitching so well we could definitely get something decent for him.

[kramnoj]

Him taking a pitching spot on this team cost the Brewers games.

 

The statement was that Suppan's failures put the Brewers in this situation. Suppan doesn't have any control over how he's used. At this point, Suppan's ERA+ isn't significantly worse than Narveson.

[JohnBriggs12]

If they have the money to offer Fielder $100 million, they have the money to sign Hart. He'd probably take half that over 4 years. What they can't do is act afraid because they got burned on Bill Hall. You can't operate that way and win.

 

4 years/$50 million for Hart? That seems high for me. I would see if he'd take something like 4 years/$32 million. I'd probably go up to $40 million total, but even then, I'd be very nervous about doing it. Hart probably has less chance to regress than Hall, but we have to remember how bad Hart was last season. Maybe he really has turned a corner. He certainly doesn't seem like he's just "lucky" this year. I also think the comparisons to Jayson Werth may be valid, based on the body type and age similarity.

I just threw a figure (half of what was offered Fielder) out there as one I'm quite sure Hart would take. It's higher than I suspect it would take too but not by a ton. He figures to get a really healthy arby raise. My point was not so much what it would take to sign Hart. I think your looking realistically at $40-42 million over 4 which even if you are looking at his career norms of .276/.330/.485 isn't out of line for a free agent to be who doesn't turn 29 until next March. If he's close to his current year's numbers over the life of it, that's a major bargain and it won't preclude you from dealing him later (barring a no-trade). If you wait another year and he keeps performing like he is now, it could go up substantially. My point was that they cannot keep reacting to what happened in the past. It turned out to be a mistake to extend Hall. That doesn't mean it would be to extend Hart. The two are not related. They are not even similar. They bought out all of Hall's arby years plus one year of FA when he was 26. Hart has only one arby year left and has more of a track record albeit somewhat up and down. Another difference is Hall wasn't much of a hitter in the minors. Hart was. Of course if Hart's agent takes the stand of Fielder's then you are in a bit of a box. But until they actually make an offer, how do we know?

 

This management group's biggest mistakes have been reacting to previous ones. In 2006, they were caught short of arms due to injuries to Sheets and Ohka. Their answer? Overpay Suppan for his durability. In 2009, they were forced to fill in with a career minor leaguer in the rotation in Mike Burns (who really wasn't all that horrible) because they were short of arms. Their response? Start 2010 with 7 starters on the roster. The problem wasn't quantity in 09, it was quality.

 

Basing a decision on what to with Hart on what happened with Hall is shortsighted. I'm not saying they shouldn't consider trading him, but they shouldn't just throw up their hands and take the best offer out there if it falls short of what you think is fair, is a mistake. Either way, there's risk of looking bad. That goes with the territory.

[dadofandrew]

It seems obvious to me Doug and Gord feel Corey is not as good as his present production, and most of us, and most other teams feel the same way. Hart, whether he meant it or not, told them he'd like a long-term offer before being traded, and the response was to continue to shop him.

 

He's a solid corner OF, and is having a very good, even outstanding season. However, the braintrust knows you pay guys based on projected future performance, not what he's done in the past. He's going to get far more than his projection for '11, and likely beyond that as well, as he is athletic and hits for average and power. In this case, selling high, either now or in the offseason, just makes perfect sense.

 

He also hits 100 OPS points higher at home this year, and 50 higher in his career. MP, while being a fair park, allows more HR's than normal. Take away a few cheapies a season, and that makes him very average if his home park is not MP.