Hart Trade Thread: Latest-- Does Hart's injury mean no deal?

[804Sox]

As has been said above, teams rarely (if ever) trade potential top-of-the rotation pitchers when they're MLB ready. Therefore, if you want this type of pitcher, which we all do, you have to droject on them and acquire them while they're young. No guarantees, but hopefully enough pan out. And really, it only takes one or two top flight pitchers to make it worthwhile.

[brains and braun]

Boy, this thread makes me wish we had traded Sheets instead of letting him walk. (Though there was no way to predict the comp pick fiasco)

[TheCrew07]

Long story short the storms knocked out my internet and my response ended up back in the thread

 

edit. After catching up on the thread I'm not sure how it's a good idea to trade something we don't have enough (pitching) for more pitching? Aren't we just breaking even? It doesn't matter the name, surely some of prospects will fail, but that's not really the point. To the example mentioned I'm not convinced Jeffress will ever throw enough strikes to be anything, and he's certainly throwing fewer pitchers and getting less work in as a reliever than he would be as a starter. As a trading chip I wouldn't think Jeffress has much value at this point in time.

 

X you missed my point. I've said many times I'd take any of those pitchers discussed in a heartbeat for Hart, but what if a deal like that doesn't happen? Then what? Many people in this thread have talked negatively about acquiring more prospects... if it's not MLB ready pitching we should move on... I say hogwash, add as much impact talent to the system as possible, whenever possible.

 

I forget what thread it was now but And That made a solid point that if all we can get for Fielder is impact hitting talent Melvin should still take the deal. Well the more I thought about it, the more I liked the suggestion, I think he's dead on. I'm hung up on pitching, but in truth the more impact talent we add to the system the better off we are long term. Any legit prospect > than a draft pick, so I'm always going to want to trade for players instead of waiting for picks. Some people have begun equating prospects with flaming out, I equate prospects with the future. If all we can get for Hart or Fielder are prospects, I still say we take what we can get. Again we only have 2 ways to acquire impact talent, either we draft it or we trade for it because aren't winning a bidding war for it in FA, free agency just isn't a realistic option for the Brewers when it comes to legit impact talent. Since we haven't been trading for it and aren't able to buy it, the only impact talent we have in the system is that which we've drafted, and we simply don't have enough.

 

So to my point about trading for a prospect, outside of Hellickson the pitcher I most like in the TB system is Alex Colome and he's pitching in the Midwest League (same league as the T-Rats) right now. Yea the deal wouldn't help for 2011, but how would it look in 2012 or 2013? Which Corey Hart will the team that signs him in FA get? I would trade 2011 for an extended run of success in '12, '13, and '14... who else would?

 

I'm alright going into a holding pattern for another year if it means a giant leap forward later. I think the whack-a-mole philosophy of team building has gotten us to where we are, regressing during what was supposed to our peak as our young hitters matured into their respective peaks, at some point here we have to turn a corner and start moving forward again as a franchise. While I desperately want to win in 2011, and I believe we can if we add some pitching, I'm more interested in progressing the entire organization forward than I am concerned about individual slots in the batting order or rotation. You all can continue to argue that stuff into the ground if you like, that's just not my thing and honestly has never been. I've literally repeated myself thousands of times since 2007-2008, I don't think I'll be changing my core philosophies anytime soon.

[Roscoe Chill]

I don't think people are saying that they should move on if they can't MLB ready pitching. I don't think anyone is saying even close to that. I think for some reason or another Wade Davis is being treated as some kind of low ceiling guy BECAUSE he's pitching at the major league level at the current time by people around here. I don't know if that makes any sense, but I don't know how to put it any other way, and I don't understand it. Moore or Davis? To me, since they're so close in rankings (both are top 5 in Tampa Bay's system, both are top 50 overall in baseball) the fact that Davis IS ready makes my decision easier.

 

It's got nothing to do with not wanting to wait for the better pitcher for two years. As X pointed out, where are people seeing that Moore IS the better pitcher of the two? Because a report said that Tampa would rather trade Davis, and the Brewers would rather have Moore?

 

Wade Davis is a highly rated prospect that has a high ceiling, and just so happens to already be pitching for a team in a pennant race right now, and could be had because of pitching depth in that team's organization. But he's not good enough for the pitching starved Milwaukee Brewers? But a guy that in two years might be where Davis is now is? MIGHT be. I don't get it at all.

[Never Outhustled]

Whether its a good move to acquire top prospects that are years away isn't worth discussing, because the business side of the team would never let that happen. Tearing the team down for a 3 year re-build would cost Attanosio about $30 million. 500 K fans per year equals $10,000 X 3 years = $30,000.

 

We might as well stick to talking about deals that might actually happen.

[Invader3K]

Dealing one or two guys very close to free agency isn't, "tearing the team down."

 

We barely made the playoffs in '08, fell short of .500 in '09, and appear to be headed for an even worse record this season. I don't see how staying the course with the same guys and the same approach to making the team better is realistically viable at this point.

[Never Outhustled]

Again we only have 2 ways to acquire impact talent, either we draft it or we trade for it because aren't winning a bidding war for it in FA, free agency just isn't a realistic option for the Brewers when it comes to legit impact talent.

The Brewers are paying more to free agent signings Suppan, Wolf, Riske, and Hawkins than what Sebathia or Texeira make. We could sign impact free agents, we're just not smart enough to.

[Never Outhustled]

Dealing one or two guys very close to free agency isn't, "tearing the team down."

 

We barely made the playoffs in '08, fell short of .500 in '09, and appear to be headed for an even worse record this season. I don't see how staying the course with the same guys and the same approach to making the team better is realistically viable at this point.

If we deal those players for A ball prospects, then the next few years are hopeless. That's tearing the team down. Matt Moore isn't helping this team in 2011 or 2012, (and possibly never, as the case with any young pitching prospect). He's on the same track as Cody Scarpetta, and I don't have Scarpetta as a 4 WAR MLB pitcher in 2012.

 

I've never said do nothing, in fact, I've railed against Melvin's approach. If they deal for pitchers that get plugged into the rotation immediately, even if they're young and inexperienced, there's at least hope, and hope sells tickets. Dealing for Fielder and/or Hart also allows the team to improve defensively.

 

[Invader3K]

Well, you're assuming a lot in that post. Yes, A-ball players would probably take a year or two to develop (at minimum), but assuming that's all we'll get at this point is quite a jump.

 

I think the ideal approach would be to deal both Hart and Fielder for a combination of players that are both in the lower levels, and maybe one or two pitchers that are ready to step into the rotation (at least by Opening Day next season).

[Never Outhustled]

So to my point about trading for a prospect, outside of Hellickson the pitcher I most like in the TB system is Alex Colome and he's pitching in the Midwest League (same league as the T-Rats) right now. Yea the deal wouldn't help for 2011, but how would it look in 2012 or 2013?

How does your opinion of Colome compare to the opinion you had of Will Inman at this level. You had Inman pencilled in as a MLB impact pitcher years ago, and he's a wash out. Colome will still be in the minors in 2012. 2 1/2 years after pitching in A ball, Jeremy Hellickson has yet to pitch a MLB inning, and he's been completely injury free. To expect every prospect to be injury free is a pipedream.

[Never Outhustled]

Well, you're assuming a lot in that post. Yes, A-ball players would probably take a year or two to develop (at minimum), but assuming that's all we'll get at this point is quite a jump.

 

I think the ideal approach would be to deal both Hart and Fielder for a combination of players that are both in the lower levels, and maybe one or two pitchers that are ready to step into the rotation (at least by Opening Day next season).

 

So you want more talent than the trade proposals we're discussing. Well ya. If we can get Minor and Teheran instead of just Minor, I'll take that too. If the offer in Matt Moore and an A ball 3B, I'll pass, and wait for a better fit.

[Invader3K]

I don't think anyone has suggested every prospect is going to be injury free. A cursory examination of Brewers prospects over the last 10 years would suggest it's foolish to do so. Still, no one stated such an opinion anyway, that I've seen.

 

I think the basic premise being raised, is that you try to get as much quality pitching talent as possible in the minor league system, since many will get hurt or flame out. Since we are only starting to get caught up with raising young pitching through the draft (really only in the last couple drafts), the only other realistic way to do it is through trades.

 

I do agree with your statement earlier in the thread, that alluded to the fact that Melvin has been woefully inefficient with how he's spent the money allocated to the MLB roster.

[trwi7]

Whether its a good move to acquire top prospects that are years away isn't worth discussing, because the business side of the team would never let that happen.

And this is what's frustrating to me. Just take the attendance hit and lower payroll for a year or two. This team is going nowhere with band-aid free agent signings to "compete now."

 

I looked at the shots from around the stadium during the last homestand and there was no way there were as many people there as the announced attendance. I know they base attendance on tickets sold, but one of those games, can't remember which one there couldn't have been more than 25,000 at the game and the announced attendance was over 30,000. They're losing money in concessions and parking from the 5,000+ that didn't show up.

 

I wish they would just take their lumps for a year or two and rebuild this thing. Band-aid free agent signings are hurting the team much more than they're helping it.

[monty57]

Well, you're assuming a lot in that post. Yes, A-ball players would probably take a year or two to develop (at minimum), but assuming that's all we'll get at this point is quite a jump.

 

I think the ideal approach would be to deal both Hart and Fielder for a combination of players that are both in the lower levels, and maybe one or two pitchers that are ready to step into the rotation (at least by Opening Day next season).

 

So you want more talent than the trade proposals we're discussing. Well ya. If we can get Minor and Teheran instead of just Minor, I'll take that too. If the offer in Matt Moore and an A ball 3B, I'll pass, and wait for a better fit.

I don't think you necessarily need to get more than what's being offered. Let's say Melvin does the Hart deal for Moore and the 3B, who it seems are both talented prospects. We then trade Fielder for someone like Minor (if Hart is close to landing a pitcher like this, then Fielder should be able to get the deal done). Then, we'd have the MLB ready pitcher we're looking for (Minor), and we've added another arm and bat that should be around A+/AA next season.

 

Our rotation is improved next season, and if we add a FA 1B and plug Gamel in RF, Cain in CF, etc our offense should still be pretty good. Plus, with another "ace potential" arm to go along with the "ace potential" arms we already have in the low minors, we could potentially have a pretty good rotation for years to come.

 

Not saying this is the perfect way to go, but it is certainly an option. With both Hart and Fielder on the table, Melvin has a lot of options. I just hope that whatever option he chooses, he is able to add a lot of talent to the system.

[monty57]

Whether its a good move to acquire top prospects that are years away isn't worth discussing, because the business side of the team would never let that happen.

And this is what's frustrating to me. Just take the attendance hit and lower payroll for a year or two. This team is going nowhere with band-aid free agent signings to "compete now."

 

I looked at the shots from around the stadium during the last homestand and there was no way there were as many people there as the announced attendance. I know they base attendance on tickets sold, but one of those games, can't remember which one there couldn't have been more than 25,000 at the game and the announced attendance was over 30,000. They're losing money in concessions and parking from the 5,000+ that didn't show up.

 

I wish they would just take their lumps for a year or two and rebuild this thing. Band-aid free agent signings are hurting the team much more than they're helping it.

I'd guess the waning attendance and lifeless crowds we've been seeing are a big reason all the trade rumors are circulating. It kind of shoots down the theory that we shouldn't do the trades because people would stop coming if Hart and Fielder were traded. People stop coming when the team on the field is playing bad, uninspired baseball. Trading Hart and Fielder may boost attendance, as people come in to see the new players.

 

 

[Invader3K]

Another aspect to think about regarding attendance: How many season ticket holders will renew if the team is seen as standing pat and doing nothing going into next season?

[RockCoCougars]

I just don't see how anyone can advocate trading both Hart and Fielder. How brutal would this lineup be without them? With the pitcher, there are already three black holes in the lineup at short and center field. Maybe I'm missing something, but outside of maybe Gamel, who I fear has been irreparably damaged by Macha, what young bats are ready to step in for them? I'm not sure that signing an older Adam 'modern day Dave Kingman' Dunn to a big money deal on the open market is the answer either like many people here advocate. Guys like him have a pretty short shelf life. What else do you do, just go out and fill holes by signing 'guys' like the 1993-2002 Brewers did? That never worked very well either. Ideally, I think you keep two of three- Weeks, Hart and Fielder. I think everyone would pretty much agree that Fielder is gone, so that means Hart and Weeks should be extended if possible in my opinion. I think a Fielder for Garza or Cain deal either now or in the off-season would be ideal. I'm not interested in trading for single A pitching at this point.

[CheezWizHed]

Different situation, but in Dec 2003, the Brewers traded Sexton to AZ. They got a lot of middling MLB talent back instead of MiLB talent, but...

 

Record Attendance

2003 67-94 1,700,354 - with Sexton NOTE: Only played 161 games that year

2004 68-94 2,062,382 - with Counsell, Overbay, Capuano, etc...

 

One could argue that Mark A drew some fans also (2004 being his first year of ownership), but trading the star player didn't hurt attendance that year.

[CheezWizHed]

I just don't see how anyone can advocate trading both Hart and Fielder. How brutal would this lineup be without them? With the pitcher, there are already three black holes in the lineup at short and center field. Maybe I'm missing something, but outside of maybe Gamel, who I fear has been irreparably damaged by Macha, what young bats are ready to step in for them? I'm not sure that signing an older Adam 'modern day Dave Kingman' Dunn to a big money deal on the open market is the answer either like many people here advocate. Guys like him have a pretty short shelf life. What else do you do, just go out and fill holes by signing 'guys' like the 1993-2002 Brewers did? That never worked very well either. Ideally, I think you keep two of three- Weeks, Hart and Fielder. I think everyone would pretty much agree that Fielder is gone, so that means Hart and Weeks should be extended if possible in my opinion. I think a Fielder for Garza or Cain deal either now or in the off-season would be ideal. I'm not interested in trading for single A pitching at this point.

Fielder: As you mentioned, Fielder is pretty much gone. So trading him now or in the off-season is pretty much the only option (not many really want to chance the draft pick route again...)

 

Hart: Most people don't expect Hart to continue this pace. IMO, he is a .800-850 OPS type player. But there is a chance he goes back to the .750 OPS player also...So trading him now would be selling high. Plus, after this off-season, I really doubt he signs a long term deal with the Brewers. Bridges might not have been burned, but if not there was plenty of scorched earth...

 

So if neither player looks to be a Brewer past 2011, what is the point in hanging on to them? Plus risking the chance that next year, Hart reverts back to an untradeable .750 OPS player making $8M...

 

I would bet that Cain will be our starting CF next year. And Escobar will improve also.

 

If Gamel is "irreparably damaged" by playing sporadically for 2 months last year, then we should thank Macha for exposing his fragility now... But I don't think that is the case.

[Roscoe Chill]

Yes, I was going to say that too about Gamel. If Gamel is ruined and/or isn't thought of as the leading candidate to replace Fielder...or if he's not going to be ready until 2012 when Fielder/Hart/Weeks are potentially gone, then what is the point in keeping at this point?

 

If you could trade Fielder right now for a package like Sweeney, Davis, AND Moore (not saying that trade specifically), I would be all for looking in to keeping Hart long term.

[bjkrautk]

Ben, if the Crew trades for Wade Davis, he could hurt his arm on his first pitch and need surgery. Pitchers get hurt, it's just the way it is.

While what you're saying is true, I think you're missing (or at the very least obfuscating) my point. Yes, any pitcher could suffer a serious injury on any specific day. The chances of that injury happening to any specific pitcher on any specific date is relatively small. That said, the odds of a minor league pitcher needing surgery somewhere over the course of the next 2-4 years (before they can contribute at the major league level) presents a significantly larger risk than the chances that Wade Davis (or any other "MLB Ready" pitcher) will get hurt while making a contribution to the major league team.

 

Moreover, injury risk is a relatively small component of the total risk when projecting minor league pitching. There are any number of other things that can derail a starting pitching prospect:

- Off-the-field problems (Jeffress risk)

- Struggle throwing pitches for strikes against more disciplined hitters (Ben Hendrickson risk)

- Failure to develop enough quality pitch types to be effective starters at the major league level (Eric Gagne risk, if you remember his time as a SP for the Dodgers)

- They might simply fare better coming out of the bullpen (Carlos Villanueva risk)

- May never put things together so that their results match the quality of their stuff (Parra risk)

 

Much like the injury risk, there's no guaranty that an MLB-ready pitcher isn't going to run head-first into one of these risk-factors. (In fact, all of my labels except Jeffress were well-regarded, MLB-ready starting pitching prospects at some point.) The real difference is that we have already witnessed the player succeed against better competition (including major leaguers, where Wade Davis is concerned), without tarnishing those projections. The further away the player is, the more difficult it is to evaluate these risk factors.

 

If the two players are considered roughly equal in terms of talent, I'm going to pick the MLB-ready talented pitcher over the impressive-but-unproven A-baller.

 

 

[MJLiverock]

I just don't see how anyone can advocate trading both Hart and Fielder. How brutal would this lineup be without them? With the pitcher, there are already three black holes in the lineup at short and center field. Maybe I'm missing something, but outside of maybe Gamel, who I fear has been irreparably damaged by Macha, what young bats are ready to step in for them? I'm not sure that signing an older Adam 'modern day Dave Kingman' Dunn to a big money deal on the open market is the answer either like many people here advocate. Guys like him have a pretty short shelf life. What else do you do, just go out and fill holes by signing 'guys' like the 1993-2002 Brewers did? That never worked very well either. Ideally, I think you keep two of three- Weeks, Hart and Fielder. I think everyone would pretty much agree that Fielder is gone, so that means Hart and Weeks should be extended if possible in my opinion. I think a Fielder for Garza or Cain deal either now or in the off-season would be ideal. I'm not interested in trading for single A pitching at this point.

 

How brutal is this team with them in the lineup? I just can't see how hanging on to the same players year after year makes the team any better than what they have been, a middle of the road non contender.

 

I think they may keep Weeks but the other two, Hart and Fielder, are probably gone. Hart is such a wild card, he has teased us with good to great stretches before only to sink back to average at the end of the day. He may just end up being too expensive for his level of production, but I could see the Brewers going Arby with him one last time.

 

Garza is a borderline #2/#3 starter who is under arby for the next 3 seasons where his cost will be going up, which may be the only way the Rays trade him for a year and a half of Fielder. His ceiling is established and the Rays may feel they have better options to spend their money on. It would be an interesting trade as it would definately help the Brewer's staff since Garza is better than anyone outside of Gallardo. Cain is probably pretty similar to Garza, stat wise, although may be helped a bit by playing in SF. He is due $7.3MM next year and $15.3MM in 2012 but the Giants have said they don't want to trade pitching and probably won't during the season.

[paul253]

I am not against trading for guys who won't be ready until 2012, because I think 2012 will be a key year for us. Fielder will be gone one way or the other. Weeks and Hart may be gone as well. Amaury Rivas and probably Mark Rogers will be up. Gallardo will still be here. Cain, Gamel, and Lawrie should be every day players. I think we should hoard as many pitching prospects as possible. What about Hart and maybe a low level mid to low ceiling prospect (Nick Bucci, Del Howell?) for Jake McGee and Alexander Colome? McGee would be about the same level as Rivas and Rogers and could be in Nashville next season. Colome would be with Odorizzi and Heckathorn, starting next season at BC. Both seem to be strikeout pitchers. That means starting in 2012 you have Rivas, Rogers, and McGee about ready. In 2013 you get Peralta and Scarpetta. In 2014 you have Heckathorn, Odorizzi, and Colome. This on top of some of the lower ceiling guys like Anundson, Lasker, Periard, Arnett possibly, etc. The team is going to sputter in 2011 but you at in 2012 things would start to get exciting.

[wibadgers23]

If Odorizzi continues to dominate like he is and follows a similar path as Gallardo did in the minors, he'll be pitching in Milwaukee in 2012.

[JohnBriggs12]

I am not against trading for guys who won't be ready until 2012, because I think 2012 will be a key year for us. Fielder will be gone one way or the other. Weeks and Hart may be gone as well. Amaury Rivas and probably Mark Rogers will be up. Gallardo will still be here. Cain, Gamel, and Lawrie should be every day players. I think we should hoard as many pitching prospects as possible. What about Hart and maybe a low level mid to low ceiling prospect (Nick Bucci, Del Howell?) for Jake McGee and Alexander Colome? McGee would be about the same level as Rivas and Rogers and could be in Nashville next season. Colome would be with Odorizzi and Heckathorn, starting next season at BC. Both seem to be strikeout pitchers. That means starting in 2012 you have Rivas, Rogers, and McGee about ready. In 2013 you get Peralta and Scarpetta. In 2014 you have Heckathorn, Odorizzi, and Colome. This on top of some of the lower ceiling guys like Anundson, Lasker, Periard, Arnett possibly, etc. The team is going to sputter in 2011 but you at in 2012 things would start to get exciting.

I'm with you on Cain and Lawrie likely being in the 2012 lineup, but I'm having a harder and harder time thinking Gamel will. He turns 25 in about 10 days, and really hasn't hit like a top prospect since the first month and a half of the 09 season.

 

It's virtually impossible to project the pitching staff. Any number of guys could figure in by 2012. Most likely though, whoever it is, there will be growing pains and the 2012 team will have a very hard time contending unless a bat or two is retained or added. It's a real long shot, but say if Fielder doesn't get dealt and has another season below his peak in 2011. He could find nothing near his current asking price, and opt for a Brewer arbitration offer.