Hart Trade Thread: Latest-- Does Hart's injury mean no deal?

[Menace II Sobriety]

My feelings on trading Corey Hart have changed over the last day or two. I wanted the Brewers to trade him asap for whatever the best deal was, whether that be Minor,Sanchez, whomever. After reading a lot of Giants fans insight into how Hart is Rowand 2.0 and his numbers will regress at AT&T without them taking into account that any pitchers' numbers would also grow outside of that park, I had a change of heart.

 

If the crew can't even get Sanchez in return for Hart, who they don't really want anyway, why trade him. If everyone is expecting a second half regression as was the case in his last all star year, the best thing could be to hold onto him until the offseason to prove this isn't a fluke. A new commitment to work ethic, finally deciding on contacts and other points can be made for this. If Hart has a moderate 2nd half coupled with his first half domination, this could be the rare case of a player being worth more for 1 year than 2 playoff runs.

[RockCoCougars]

Dumping Hart for low minor leaguers at this point is sheer stupidity. It would only make sense if A)This was the 2001 Brewers with no hope at competing in the next 3 years and the owner wants to slash salary or B)Hart is a rent a player with free agency impending at the end of the season. Everyone here talks about 'selling high', but moving Hart for these two guys is not selling high. I'd put the odds at less than 50% that either of them ever makes a significant impact in the majors, let alone an all-star team. I think a lot of people are forgetting that this is not the NFL or NBA where a newly drafted player can step in and make an almost immediate impact. Not the case here, these guys are at least 2-3 years away- if they ever make it.

 

Going further, why do you think the Rays want to move Davis so badly? He has been pretty pedestrian this year, with a fairly low K rate and high WHIP. He went the entire month of June without a win (I don't want to hear the 'AL East' stuff either, the starts were against Texas, Toronto, Atlanta, San Diego and Arizona). I don't want another team's scraps (e.g. their '3rd best prospect). If Hellickson is as advertised and ready, and the Rays truly have a 'surplus of pitching', I don't think that Garza is too much to ask for. If the Rays don't want to part with him, I suggest they pursue Jason Werth.

[TheCrew07]

Dumping Hart for low minor leaguers at this point is sheer stupidity.

No, the idea should be to get back as much talent as possible. If the perfect deal doesn't exist you take potential impact pitching where you can get it... You're way over the hyperbole line at this point. How can you complain about the rotation on one hand, and argue against acquiring impact pitching talent on the other?

 

The immediate future hinges entirely on Parra. If he becomes a viable sub 4 ERA starter like he has the talent to be, then we have Yo, Parra, and Wolf (unfortunately) and we only need to fill 2 more spots. I have a very hard time believing that Hart is worth Minor, Niemann, Garza, or Davis (just the throwing names out there let's not get hung up on semantics)... but lets just say the team is desperate enough that he his. That would make next year's rotation Yo, Parra, Wolf, Minor/Niemann/Garza/Davis and we only need to fill one slot with Loe, Butler, Rivas, and Rogers all in AAA waiting for a slot. I'd be pretty pleased, we would have 3 legit #2 type starters in the rotation that we control for multiple years, that would be a good start.

 

If Parra fails, and he might, then we're in tough shape unless we can acquire a young pitcher via trade because we only have 2 spots solidified in the rotation, which probably means Davis comes back and someone like Narveson is once again in the rotation, and he just does nothing for me.

 

I'm not going to hold my breath though, 1 young impact pitcher would make such a tremendous difference for the future that I don't see it happening, it's too good to be true.

 

Regardless, I'm not concerned with MLB readypitching at all. Ideally I'd like someone that can step in next season if not this season, but if that opportunity doesn't present itself I'll take as much potential impact pitching as I can get.

[brewmann04]

It seems like Melvin knows what he wants from a hart trade and should not accept anything less at this point.

[paul253]

Let's not forget that the Brewers still don't have any pitching prospects ready for 2011. Their starters are awful this year. Bush will be expensive if he sticks around. Narveson is average at best. Parra still has some upside but the results as of yet haven't been there. What exactly are we going to do next season? Sign Kevin Millwood for $8 million a year? We can hang onto Hart and Fielder and try to compete next year, but unless there is a significant upgrade in the rotation, I can't see the team getting any better.

[nate82]

Butler, Rivas, and Rogers all could step in for either Davis or Narveson next year. I like Butler and Rogers more than Rivas though so the Brewers do have some prospects though these are more of a back of the end rotation starters. If the Brewers could get someone to stick between Gallardo, Parra, and Wolf and then put Butler or Rogers as the #5 starter I think the Brewers could be competitive next year. If the Brewers some how get Davis in a trade for Hart the Brewers could have a rotation of Gallardo, Parra, Wolf, Davis, and Butler/Rogers. If the Brewers trade Hart and they can only get some high upside A ball pitchers then it would depend on what the Brewers get for Prince in the off season.

 

If the return for Prince doesn't bring back some MLB ready pitchers in the off season or during this season then you have to get pitchers who will be ready by 2012 or 2013 the latest. I would prefer to have prospects that would be ready by next year so the next wave of pitching prospects Odorizzi and Scarpetta will be able to fill in at the back of the rotation in 2012 and then be in the middle or top of the rotation in 2013. I really think 2012 and 2013 will be years that the Brewers will be rather competitive but that will all be determined on how well the pitching prospects the Brewers have develop.

[rcon14]

The Braves interest me more than any other team.

I don't really like Jonathan Sanchez, because he seems like a Manny Parra-type pitcher. He strikes a lot of guys out but struggles with command and consistency. I do like Madison Bumgardner, but his delivery seems really unorthodox and stressful on his arm. I'd take Bumgardner for Hart, but not Sanchez for Hart.

In SD, Castro would need to be in the deal or I don't see it happening.

If TB wanted to make a trade you need to offer either Hellickson or Davis.

ATL interests me the most because of Mike Minor, he's one of my favorite prospects. I'd do Hart for Minor straight up, maybe get a PTBNL in the deal too (maybe it could be Matt Diaz).

[TheCrew07]

I'm not forgetting that in some people's minds the Brewers won't have any prospects ready for 2011, but we don't need to make another Bush/Jackson/Gross deal, we need to focus more on pure talent and be less concerned with MLB readiness. I realize I'm not going to convince anyone, if you look back you'll find I didn't like signing Hoffman not only because he was old and a closer, but because we had Axford and Braddock waiting, and the overwhelming majority didn't see it that way. I care much less about readiness than I do about ceiling and value. I don't want to rehash Melvin's trade history again but he's primary focused on MLB ready high floor/low ceiling pitching and that focus put us on this path we are wearily trudging today.

 

If TB is willing to part with Alex Colome or Matt Moore for Hart I sign off on that deal 100 times out of 100. Moore will be in AA to start next season, and Colome could easily do half the year in A+ and the other half in AA as well. I think the latter is likely going to be Odorizzi's career path. They'll build up Jake's IP this season and then let his talent and performance dictate how fast he'll move going forward. He'll start in A+ but I could see him getting the bump to AA at the break if he performs. In 2006 Yo went from A+ to AA and was pitching in Milwaukee for good by Jun 18th 2007, it's a reasonable assumption that any pitcher performing well in AA this year will likely impact Milwaukee sometime next season.

 

Truth be told, I'll sign off on most any deal for impact pitching talent, I'll hoard pitching talent until we don't have any rotation slots left from MLB through R ball.

[Roscoe Chill]

I recall a year or two ago, some NFL team in need of a QB was rumored

to be thinking of trading a solid player (OL, if memory serves).

Supposedly, they had 2 deals on the table:

1. A 1st round pick, but not the upcoming draft, the next year.

2. A journeyman QB, solid backup, some experience starting, and a 3rd/4th round pick in the draft soon to arrive.

Now, to me, this was an easy call...a 1st round pick had far more

worth, in my opinion. But, the results of a poll was 4-1...get the QB

and later round pick. The comments read like a "win today, forget about

tomorrow" manifesto. I barely follow the NFL, but I don't think a trade

was ever made, I believe they ended up signing him to an extension or

branding him a "franchise" player, or whatever. I do recall though

thinking that not only were the fans far too emotional, that 80% of

them would make horrible GM's.

 

I would love to know who the heck you're talking about, sounds made up. Journeyman backup QB? Over a future first round pick? And then was franchised? Or the OL was franchised? Details would be nice to know what you're talking about. Anyway, that's a pretty bad example when you're comparing Moore and Davis anyway. If he's widely recognized as a better prospect than Davis (which is debatable), it's not by much (3rd best vs. 4th best in the system type of difference). So if they're pretty darn even, yeah I'll take the guy that can be plugged in on the Brewers right now over the guy that may never even get to AA (injuries, decline). We're not talking about some journeyman backup QB and a 3rd round pick over a future first round pick whatsoever.

[bjkrautk]

The contrarian in me likes Moore just because so many folks don't. He's pretty much recognized as a better prospect than Davis, but because he's a couple years away, no one wants him.

 

Briggs did a nice job a while back of summing up a scenario that the Brewers could compete next year, and they could. However, I can certainly see a .500 team a lot easier than I can see a 90 win team, so looking at maximizing talent is not a bad option, by any means.

Whatever happened to TINSTAPP, Al?

 

To me, the important thing is not maximizing talent, but maximizing return on investment (at the Major league level). We measure talent independent of risk that the player is able to tap into that talent with regularity (see Parra, Manny). There are no shortage of things that could go wrong with a pitching prospect at the lower levels of the minors {injury, off-the-field troubles, their command / stuff doesn't look as good against advanced hitters, etc., fails to develop dependable 3rd pitch and has to go to the bullpen, etc.} The "MLB Ready" starting pitcher has cleared most of those hurdles, and can start making a contribution almost immediately.

 

 

If Doug Melvin makes the move for Moore (or Minor for that matter), over someone like Garza, Davis, or Sanchez (who I like in that order), it's because he thinks that player has a real chance to develop into a #1-2 starter, rather than a 3-4 guy who could maybe peak as high as a #2 guy. Players like Yovanni Gallardo (or Hellickson for that matter) don't get traded when they're ready to contribute at the MLB level; guys like Dave Bush do.

 

Personally, I'd rather have the guy who can contribute now, while you still have the current nucleus of your ballclub that can compete for a playoff spot in 2011 if things break right (or 2010 if two other teams in the division break down). There's also a certain level of "giving up on the season" PR (and expected loss of revenue) that comes with trading for low level / high-ceiling types that I suspect Mark A. would have to be sign off on before the deal could go through.

[brains and braun]

I agree with TC07 completely on hoarding young, high-ceiling pitching. This is the way the wind is blowing in baseball now. If you have pitching, particularly young, cost-controlled pitching, it can be traded for the other things. Also, hitters are more readily available and affordable on the FA market. And I can't see why anyone would want us to trade for more low-ceiling MLB ready guys. A rotation made up of Yovani and four Dave Bushs doesn't win championships. And isn't that what this is all about? Who cares if we win 70 games versus 80? Either way, someone else is popping the champagne in October.

[monty57]

If the Brewers trade Hart and they can only get some high upside A ball pitchers then it would depend on what the Brewers get for Prince in the off season.

 

I think this is key. It looks to me like Hart & Fielder will both be traded before next season. I'd guess one of the trades will bring back someone who will be in the rotation to start next year, and the other will bring back high-upside arms in the lower minors. The thought that Hart could bring back the major league ready pitcher excites me, because I never thought that would be reality, and I'd be really excited to see what we could get in a Prince trade if we weren't pigeon-holed into needing to find a major-league ready starter.

 

We have to temper our expectation for Hart due how horrid he's been the past two seasons. However, Atlanta's trade of Yunel Escobar for Alex Gonzalez does show that teams looking for the playoffs will seemingly forego sanity for short-term results. I'd love to get some of the names being thrown around in exchange for Hart. If it's Minor/Garza/W. Davis, then we've got a rotation spot locked up for the next few seasons. If we get a young "top of the rotation stuff" pitcher and a solid bat who won't be ready for a few years, I'm still happy to get that kind of talent into the system.

 

Then we'd just need to work into the trade that the pitcher gets to continue working in Tampa's minor league system so that he'll be developed properly :-)

[brains and braun]

Agreed Monty. I would be all for trading Hart for any of the above pitchers. I have to admit not knowing anything about Moore or Sweeney. By MLB ready, low-ceiling guys, I mean guys more like J. Sanchez. We don't need guys who aren't clear upgrades to what we have now, or guys with little service time remaining.

[Boisebrewer]

One of the better scenarios I've heard is getting Davis for Hart now and then Trout + for Fielder in the offseason. I don't know much about the Angels system besides Trout and that only because the Brewers were rumored to want him in the draft, but Trout, Lawrie, and Braun would look real nice in our lineup for years to come.

[Invader3K]

Why would the Angels want Fielder next season? Morales should be back and ready by then.

[paul253]

Butler, Rivas, and Rogers all could step in for either Davis or Narveson

next year.

I am not as high on Rogers as you are. He's having an awfully hard time with his control this year. I just can't see him stepping in the rotation next year. I think Butler would be the best bet but you're just replacing one #4 or #5 pitcher with another one. I don't think we have any real good pitching coming into our rotation until 2012 with Rivas and Rogers, 2013 with Peralta and Scarpetta and 2014 with Odorizzi.

[dadofandrew]

Ben, if the Crew trades for Wade Davis, he could hurt his arm on his first pitch and need surgery. Pitchers get hurt, it's just the way it is.

 

Ndog, I think it may have been BUF. I only read it because it was linked at a site I read because they thought it was odd no one wanted the #1 pick because, heavens, it was 14 months away rather than 2.

[TheCrew07]

That's fine paul, but why trade for an MLB ready pitcher just because he's MLB ready? What are we gaining from that deal that Butler wouldn't do for a us?

 

I can see being down on Rogers because he's unhittable but doesn't throw enough strikes, but I'm struggling with people being down on Rivas. Amaury is already stretched out to 130ish IP, he could easily make the jump to 160ish this season (health permitting) and give 180 innings next season. His FB reaches the mid 90s, reportedly has good sink, and his change up is fantastic. In fact the only thing he doesn't do well is hit, he seems to hit like Sheets. Getting back to Rogers reportedly the Brewers are limiting Mark's repertoire as well, they are making him work his least best pitches to death in games, which is a solid plan in my opinion, but has contributed to the unpredictable results we've seen.

 

I'm really not sure what the fascination is around here with prospects spending a full season in AAA. I don't mind keeping them down past the super 2 deadline, but if they can help the team now I see no reason to keep them in AAA for the sake of them progressing 1 level at a time, the one exception is that I don't want them called up to sit on the bench, if they are up, they should play as often as possible otherwise save the service time and keep them in AAA. AAA is a storage area for major league depth, not a prospect proving ground.

 

If we aren't acquiring legit talent I don't see any good reason to make a trade at all. We simply cannot continue to manage the roster one year at a time "trying to compete", all that's done is stagnate the franchise. In fact, we might actually be regressing each year even though people don't like that notion at all. If Melvin's isn't able or is unwilling to give up what it takes to acquire an impact pitcher, I'd rather go into 2011 with the guys we already have inside the organization than make a move to acquire another aging FA pitcher or more low ceiling players just to fill out the roster, it's time for a different approach.

 

If the rotation next season is Yo, Wolf, Doug Davis, random scrub, random scrub what will be the difference in our end result? But if Parra can become that #2 type pitcher he has the talent to be, well that changes everything in the immediate future. I know he's not the most popular guy around here, but he's the only pitcher we have with enough to talent to make a significant jump results wise, he's always been that important to the franchise given the woeful lack impact pitching at the top of the organization. We're 2 impact pitchers away from a pretty competitive rotation, they don't have to be "aces" the just need to have talent.

 

If impact talent is on the table, take it. AAA, AA, A+, A... I don't care, add impact talent to the system. If not then please don't make the same ole trade for the sake of making of trade that we've become accustomed to over the years. Quit building to be average and start building to be special and let the chips fall where they may.

 

edit. The storm knocked out my internet connection while I was posting this, but Yuku still inserted it back into the middle of the thread.

[fondybrewfan]

I wonder if something like Hart & Gamel would get Bumgarner/Hellickson? A straight up trade is unrealistic but a young pitcher like that would be awesome to have. We probably would need Gamel to replace Hart or Fielder though.

 

No one really talks about trading Jeffress, I wonder if he could be the piece to get us that MLB ready pitcher? Of course if we wait 1-2 more years Jeffress might be just that

[Never Outhustled]

That's fine paul, but why trade for an MLB ready pitcher just because he's MLB ready? What are we gaining from that deal that Butler wouldn't do for a us?

 

When have we talked about acquired a low ceiling MLB ready pitcher. None of the pitching prospects mentioned here are low ceiling guys.

 

[Never Outhustled]

The contrarian in me likes Moore just because so many folks don't. He's pretty much recognized as a better prospect than Davis, but because he's a couple years away, no one wants him.

 

 

 

Moore is recognized as the better prospect by who? Not Baseball America, not John Sickels, not Keith Law. We prefer Davis because he's closer and higher ranked.

[GAME05]

I wonder if something like Hart & Gamel would get Bumgarner/Hellickson? A straight up trade is unrealistic but a young pitcher like that would be awesome to have. We probably would need Gamel to replace Hart or Fielder though.

 

No one really talks about trading Jeffress, I wonder if he could be the piece to get us that MLB ready pitcher? Of course if we wait 1-2 more years Jeffress might be just that

i like the idea of throwing in Gamel if it meant landing Bumgarner or Hellickson. then maybe we'd have a little more flexibility when it comes to trading Fielder that we could get a corner OF to replace Hart. i certainly wouldn't be averse to bringing back Overbay on a two-year deal to replace Fielder at 1b.

 

 

[dadofandrew]

Agreed on Overbay, I've considered him often as a stopgap. The question is, will Braun move to 1B or remain in LF?

[WisconsinSportsRule]

I'm glad someone brought up the idea of adding another prospect to get a better pitcher. If we're *this* close to Hellickson/Bumgarner, adding a guy on our side would be the right thing to do. I really don't want to give up Gamel in such a deal because I still have a lot of hope for him, but there are others that might have interest to those teams.

[sargennm]

Agreed on Overbay, I've considered him often as a stopgap. The question is, will Braun move to 1B or remain in LF?

I think Braun has enough cache with the organization to make sure this never happens, even if they would want to consider it. Braun will be a perennial All-Star starter in the OF. Not so at 1B.