Macha's bench rotting youth

[dadofandrew]

Danzig is correct, I was surprised to see him with a sub 800 OPS in AAA. for a guy there for the 3rd time, he should be dominating.

[homer]

Well, if you think players are robots & that the way Gamel was handled last season didn't relate somewhat to him falling off the cliff after (finally) being sent back down to AAA, then yeah I guess it's accurate.

So you think Gamel's decline this year is because of how he was handled last year? Guys get hurt all the time and come back just fine. I have a hard time believing that because he had sporadic playing time it's caused him to forget how to hit. And if it did mess with him so bad mentally then maybe he's not a guy you want to count on going forward.

[logan82]

The only thing off on Gamel this year appears to be his power. He still has a really good OBP. That may or may not have something to do with his shoulder injury from spring training.

[Thurston Fluff]

Gamel was Branyan-ing AAA pitching before he got the call, and then was treated like a regular old backup player instead of a 23-yo top prospect that annihilated AAA ball & deserved to get handed the keys. McGehee is what he is: a decent option at a corner IF spot, without any more realistic room for growth.

 

I really don't think you can call a .839 OPS in 273 ab's as annihilating AAA. IF it is then you would have to call McGehee and his .855 OPS in 355 ab's at the major league level the same. Maybe Casey doesn't have the room to grow like Gamel but how much growth is needed for a guy who is already annihilating the majors?

[TooLiveBrew]

Gamel was called up in May. Prior to that, his OPS in AAA was over 1.000. And McGehee hasn't even come close to annihilating MLB pitching.

[Thurston Fluff]

Oops my bad. I inadvertently used his entire season of AAA which was .839. Still as a good stats guy I'm sure I don't need to remind you of the severe limitations one month's worth of data gives you. I think the larger amount of data we got from his entire season, though still very limited, would be a better indicator. Personally I don't buy into his bench time ruining his ability to hit so to me the idea that Macha somehow ruined his season is still hard to accept but I can respect the difference of opinion on that. It just seems to me since McGehee was hardly used at all for the first 6 weeks or so yet did much better than Gamel when he did get a shot shows it isn't cut and dry that bench time hurts a player over time. When he first starts to get regular AB's he might have some rust but Gamel had enough regular time when he got sent down to get back anything he lost.

[dadofandrew]

Personally I don't buy into his bench time ruining his ability to hit so to me the idea that Macha somehow ruined his season is still hard to accept but I can respect the difference of opinion on that. It just seems to me since McGehee was hardly used at all for the first 6 weeks or so yet did much better than Gamel when he did get a shot

Good players take advantage of opportunity. Gamel did not.

 

The idea he's still struggling a year later because of it is absurd. I hope it's his shoulder, as a sub 800 OPS in his 3rd season at AAA is embarrassing.

[logan82]

dadofandrew wrote

The idea he's still struggling a year later because of it is absurd. I hope it's his shoulder, as a sub 800 OPS in his 3rd season at AAA is embarrassing.

You are way overstating Gamel's actual time in AAA. He still has less than a full year of PA in AAA. He was only at AAA in 5 games in 2008, spent 2 months in the majors last year and didn't start playing in AAA until early June of this year. 503 total PA.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think the larger amount of data we got from his entire season, though still very limited, would be a better indicator. Personally I don't buy into his bench time ruining his ability to hit

 

I would say his dominance of AAA pitching to begin the season, combined with his OPS well over .800 as a MLB starter, would be good indicators. The thing that gets continually overlooked is that Gamel did just fine, even with his irregular playing time/non-starting dragging his stat line down. McGehee hitting so well, combined with unrealistic expectations for rookies thanks to Braun & Fielder, made Gamel completely intolerable to many fans. Now, the Brewers are stuck in the position where they believe McGehee is a long-term answer at 3B (even though he's the same guy he's always been -- limited upside), and Gamel basically has no impact position, because imo it will be hard for Mat to bring a lot of value as a 1B.

 

 

Good players take advantage of opportunity. Gamel did not.

 

Yeah, actually he did. But Macha didn't like him & played favorites. To Casey's credit, he hit really well last season... this season, he's been completely replaceable. I'm very confident Gamel could come up right now and outproduce what McGehee has done thus far overall, but McGehee is now viewed as a Proven Commodity™ by Macha/Melvin (not to mention most fans), so Mat won't get the shot this season unless Fielder is traded & the hand is forced.

[bjkrautk]

To Casey's credit, he hit really well last season... this season, he's been completely replaceable. I'm very confident Gamel could come up right now and outproduce what McGehee has done thus far overall, but McGehee is now viewed as a Proven Commodity™ by Macha/Melvin (not to mention most fans), so Mat won't get the shot this season unless Fielder is traded & the hand is forced.

Since McGehee is 9th in the majors in OPS at 3b this season (using 200 PA as a baseline), either you're confident that Gamel is - right now - already better than 2/3rd of major league 3b's, or you have an odd sense of what 'replaceable' really means.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/st...on/3b/sort/OPS/minpa/200

[kramnoj]

The thing that gets continually overlooked is that Gamel did just fine, even with his irregular playing time/non-starting dragging his stat line down

 

It doesn't really get overlooked. If you massage the data to look at his numbers only when he started at 3B, you get that .864 OPS, but in only 94 PA. There is no reason to make anything of that 94 PA when we can look at all of his minor league stats to give us a better idea of projection. Or do you really believe that 94 PAs is representative? Because if you, then Bill Hall is almost a league average hitter this season, in twice the PAs. Shane Spencer once had a .910 slugging percentage in 73 PAs. That's right, slugging percentage, not OPS. His OPS was 1.321. It's just too small a number to look at when we can look at his whole career.

 

As for those projections, ZIPS pegged Gamel to OPS .694 and CHONE .753. It's hard to be productive when striking out 30% of the time without a whole bunch of power as he did in 2009.

[Diskono]

I don't think we necessarily have to find one single smoking gun to explain Gamel's poor second half. He declined dramatically in the second half of '08 as well. It happens to a lot of players, especially young ones.

 

I'm also not sure that I follow where this perception of Macha playing favorites with veterans is coming from. There have been many counterexamples mentioned in this thread, and none (other than Gamel) that support that statement. If I were the manager, and I had to choose a lineup based solely off of performance, I would have gone with Counsell, McGehee, and Gamel, in that order. So to me, its not really a shocker that those first two saw more playing time. As a fan, I wanted to see Gamel play every day, but I get that it wouldn't have made the most sense for a team in win-now mode.

 

Now, keeping a 3rd-string 3B on the roster...that's very questionable, but I can see where they were coming from.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Gamel is anything but a sure thing to get called up and excel in the major leagues - he doesn't have the pedigree other Brewer prospects had coming up (Braun, Fielder, Weeks, even LaPorta). I think some on this board just assume he's got all star written all over him, and look at anything to justify lofty expectations from him.

From a results standpoint, Gamel currently projects as an average offensive 3B that can't play 3B defensively at the major league level. Put him at 1st or RF and his offensive value drops while hopefully improving his defensive contributions. To say anything else is manipulating statistics with the laundry list of excuses many on this board have come up with.

I hope Gamel proves me wrong, because it would be great to put him at 1st and have him produce when Fielder no longer wears a Brewer uni - but IMO he's one of the prospects that Melvin should have tried to sell high with that could have brought some good pitching in return.

[fleehaw]

From a results standpoint, Gamel currently projects as an average offensive 3B that can't play 3B defensively at the major league level.

Gamel is better than McGehee defensively according to more than one metric. So, according to your statements, McGehee should also be moved to another position or traded?

Gamel may never produce at the major league level, but it's hard to ignore the success he's had in the minor leagues. He is a legitimate prospect and there are numerous people that feel like he will outperform the Brewers current 3rd baseball both offensively and defensively immediately.

 

 

[Diggr14]

what metric?

 

I'm terribly concerned about the sub .900 Fielding percentage. Really doesnt matter what his range is or whatever else they are looking at. If he has stone hands.. he's not going to help us at 3rd. He needs to see the wizard stat and get new hands.

[logan82]

I believe most of his errors are throwing errors.

[TooLiveBrew]

bjkrautk wrote:

Since McGehee is 9th in the majors in OPS at 3b this season (using 200 PA as a baseline), either you're confident that Gamel is - right now - already better than 2/3rd of major league 3b's, or you have an odd sense of what 'replaceable' really means.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/st...on/3b/sort/OPS/minpa/200

I'm also including the fact that Casey has continued to play putrid defense at 3B

[dadofandrew]

Casey doesn't have much range, but he's been fine defensively. His UZR/150 is -13, and considering that it tries to magnify numbers to make itself worthwhile, he's probably half that, -7 runs a year. Add in some phantom errors from the Miller Park drunken scorer, he's -5...that's about right.

 

He actually looks far more comfortable, as his knee is probably not bothering him nearly as much.

[ELCABALLO45]

This whole "Gamel OPS'd over .800 when he started everyday at 3rd" thing is a pretty poor argument.

 

Macha had to pick between McGehee and Gamel. He picked McGehee. McGehee went on to post a line of .301/.360/.499. Macha made a good choice.

 

However, it was Melvin who needed to see that Gamel was not playing and send him back down. I hated seeing Gamel sit on the bench everyday. When your a 23/24 year old prospect you need to be playing everyday somewhere. Oh and that being said, I still think Gamel will be the better player, but to act like Macha "ruined" him is just not correct IMO.

[Baldkin]

Incorrect.

McGehee was playing plenty at 2B at that point and time and both Gamel and McGehee could've been playing. Instead, Macha consistently started 38 year old Craig Counsell at both 3b and 2B while Gamel was up. Ridiculous.

[kramnoj]

It's ridiculous, except for the fact that Counsell was better last year.

[trwi7]

It's ridiculous, except for the fact that Counsell was better last year.

A .760 OPS? I'm pretty sure Gamel could've and did do that. Macha also started Hall almost as many times as he started Gamel. There was no excuse for that.

 

It could've been done like this.

 

Gamel starts at 3B 5-6 times a week.

McGehee starts at 2B 4-5 times a week and takes one or two starts at 3B.

Hall and Counsell fill in at 3B/SS/2B with Hall filling in the OF as well on occasion.

 

Then you get Gamel and McGehee playing and there's no need to make the Lopez trade.

 

[kramnoj]

I'm not just talking about the 105 OPS+, but of course am also including defense. There would be no reason to expect Gamel to outperform Counsell last year defensively. As far as being sure Gamel could do that, it's unclear why you should be sure, since Gamel didn't do it. Unless of course, you go back to assuming that his performing while starting would have been his performance all the time, which goes back to the previous sample size discussion.

 

I agree that the Lopez trade did not need to be made given the talent the Brewers already had. Lopez did great offensively, but it ended up being meaningless.

[trwi7]

Didn't Counsell say the team is in trouble if he's starting? He knows he's a bench player, pretty much everyone does. Why start a 37 year old bench guy instead of a 23 year old top prospect?

 

Here's the problems I have.

 

1. They had no plan for Gamel. Macha says he was put in a "zim-zam" when he was called up. How can you not have a plan for your top prospect when he's called up?

 

2. It took Melvin way too long to send Gamel back down when it was clear he wasn't going to get any playing time.

 

3. I'm still waiting for someone to explain to me why Bill Hall got only one less start than Gamel in the time Gamel was up. That is just complete mismanagement.

 

If they didn't feel Gamel was ready or didn't want to play him, fine. Just say that and send him back down. Don't have him sit on the bench wasting service time when he could be in the minors getting at bats and working on his defense in actual game situations.

[joepepsi]

Instead, Macha consistently started 38 year old Craig Counsell at both 3b and 2B while Gamel was up. Ridiculous.

Well, seems like it's time to repost what I posted back on page 2, since many continue to ignore it.

 

His first game was the 35th game of the season. His last appearance

before being sent back down was the 92nd game of the season. Gamel

appeared in 48 of those 57 games, starting in 29. During that same

stretch, Casey McGehee appeared in 45 games, starting in 34. In those

games Casey hit .336/.395/.557. In that same time Hall appeared in 37

games, starting in 22. Counsell appeared in 50 games, starting 43.

 

Gamel had regular playing time.