When is the time to start selling?

[madrx]

I have no issue with holding on to Fielder and Hart if the offers are poor. As mentioned above, why not trade away some spare parts and see if another CV or Josh Butler type might end up being the result.

[LouisEly]

At the trade deadline the deals are MLB players for prospects. In the offseason it is more MLB players for MLB players. Maybe with it being such a buyers market right now the better deal is for MLB players in the offseason, in which they are more likely to get major league pitching for Hart and Fielder.

 

Think about it - the Brewers might be clearing over $30M in payroll in the offseason; the raw amount for Suppan, Hall, Hoffman, Riske, Davis, and Bush excluding buyouts is over $40M - if they trade Fielder it is over $50M. They may be able to trade Hart or Fielder for pitchers who are under contract (similar to Haren) that have a couple of years left on their deals that are bonafide #2 or even #1 starters. The Brewers just need two starters for two years to bridge them to when the pitching prospects arrive.

 

The principal of Moneyball isn't the value of OBP - it is to find out what it undervalued in the market. With the economy down and teams looking to shed payroll, what might be undervalued in the market is players with big contracts. I'm sure that a significant part of the reasons the return for Oswalt and Haren were so low was because of how much money they had remaining on their contracts. While Fielder will require a big contract extension, generally speaking position players are less risky for big contracts than pitchers are.

[logan82]

I'm sure that a significant part of the reasons the return for Oswalt and Haren were so low was because of how much money they had remaining on their contracts.

 

The Astros paid half of Oswalt's remaining contract. If Haren pitches halfway decent his remaining contract isn't to bad.

 

09:$7.5M, 10:$8.25M, 11:$12.75M, 12:$12.75M, 13:$15.5M club option ($3.5M buyout)

[RockCoCougars]

At the trade deadline the deals are MLB players for prospects. In the offseason it is more MLB players for MLB players. Maybe with it being such a buyers market right now the better deal is for MLB players in the offseason, in which they are more likely to get major league pitching for Hart and Fielder.

 

Think about it - the Brewers might be clearing over $30M in payroll in the offseason; the raw amount for Suppan, Hall, Hoffman, Riske, Davis, and Bush excluding buyouts is over $40M - if they trade Fielder it is over $50M. They may be able to trade Hart or Fielder for pitchers who are under contract (similar to Haren) that have a couple of years left on their deals that are bonafide #2 or even #1 starters. The Brewers just need two starters for two years to bridge them to when the pitching prospects arrive.

Exactly. I just don't get why people have been clamoring for trades to be made now. If Hart and Fielder are moved for prospects, to me that's a rebuilding project. The point being that if these prospects are major league ready, why aren't they in the majors now? Look at LaPorta, 2 years ago, he was supposedly 'ready' and he hasn't done squat since. Going further, for the vast majority of young pitchers, there is an even steeper learning curve- even mega-prospects like Buchholz and Hughes had brutal stretches before they started to put things together. How many teams have won with a rookie as their number 1 or number 2 starter? Not many. Looking to add guys who have the upside of a #3 starter (Hudson, Sanchez, and the like) makes absolutely no sense to me when you are talking about trading all-star calliber players like Hart and Fielder. The prudent move is to sit tight and see what happens in December. Generally there are some good arms to be had in trades then.

[bill hAll Star]

It's going to be nearly impossible with the defense we have assembled to make much of a run even with some spare cash and a good but not great pitcher that Doug is waiting for in return next year.

 

Coming into tonight the Yankees had scored 545 runs and we had given up 556 runs to the likes of the Stros and Pirates among others.

 

So now that we've established that it's going to take an entire arsenal of pitching and/or re-establishing the style of play for that to drastically come down, let's also discuss how badly Melvin is mishandling this:

 

What do Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Dan Haren have in common? All of their teams were in the basement or very close to it and knew they were out of it. Very few teams put aces out on the block before the season starts, and if a team like Baltimore (let's say they had an ace) who knows they still have probably another building year to go, know that the ace won't do them any good, and would put one out on the block...would they actually trade for 1 year, 15 million of Prince Fielder in return for that ace? Lee was traded before the year started but that was an exception given that Philly preferred Halladay and again, the rebuilding team, Toronto, didn't get a Prince Fielder-type player in return.

 

If Melvin got a AA kid with a high ceiling this year, we could be talking best case scenario that in the May callup times we'd be getting a Gallardo-esque excitement time when he gets called up and hopefully he'd come through. Worst case scenario is he only pans out to be a cheap #3 or #4 starter. Then again though, those talking about getting Dan Haren, imagining that the Angels decided they'd put him right back on the market for their DH of the future, Haren could continue to be that 4.20 ERA guy and cost us 8 figures most years to keep him. He could revert back to being an ace as well, but that opportunity exists at a much smaller cost and larger quantity in a package of 2-3 AA studs.

 

If Melvin strictly waits for MLB talent and sticks to that in the offseason, we're going to get a Mench/Cordero/Nix type disappointment (no arguments on the whole Cruz thing, which made it even worse). How about we try to get a Feliz, Andrus, Saltalamacchia return instead? (Feliz will be a valuable starter soon and Salty was a bust, but still could be worth something). Anyways, I don't see us even getting many offers at all in the offseason. I can't think of many teams with established MLB pitching that have a need for Prince that would give that established MLB pitching away.

 

If Melvin caves and goes for AA studs this offseason, I'll be a bit happier, but still mad that he wasted some of Fielder's value given that a team won't be in the heat of the race "going for it" to sweeten the package for Prince and to get that 1/2 year extra of contract time.

 

Melvin is mishandling this. Badly.

 

We really need to get these Fielder for established solid MLB pitchers that make upwards of 8 figures and start looking to some high ceiling young kids. I want the best package of talent and that normally doesn't come when asking for instant MLB players in return.

[RockCoCougars]

Well, in my opinion, you either go for it next year, or you may as well bust the whole thing up. Half 'hearted' rebuilding projects never work, as evidenced by the Brewers for about 10 years in the 90's/early 2000's. I would guess that Melvin wouldn't be very enthused about a rebuild due to job security- and Mark A. does have some extra money to spend this offseason, so I would bet that they are going to give it one last shot next year.

[wibadgers23]

RockCoCougars[/b]]I would guess that Melvin wouldn't be very enthused about a rebuild due to job security- and Mark A. does have some extra money to spend this offseason, so I would bet that they are going to give it one last shot next year.

Then they better plan on getting at least two, maybe three new starting pitchers who aren't old and washed up. Not trading Prince and/or Hart is going to make that very difficult.

 

 

[RockCoCougars]

RockCoCougars[/b]]I would guess that Melvin wouldn't be very enthused about a rebuild due to job security- and Mark A. does have some extra money to spend this offseason, so I would bet that they are going to give it one last shot next year.

Then they better plan on getting at least two, maybe three new starting pitchers who aren't old and washed up. Not trading Prince and/or Hart is going to make that very difficult.

 

I'm not saying don't trade Prince, I'm just saying now is not the time. No team in the hunt is going to trade a starting pitcher now, but circumstances may dictate such a trade in the off-season and there could be a match for Fielder. Going further, I would probably allow Jack Z. to pillage the organization if he would be willing to discuss Hernandez. Greinke could be another opportunity like that.

[wibadgers23]

Oh yeah, I knew what you meant Rock. I was just saying.

[bill hAll Star]

I also agree that you'd have to get probably 4 new pitchers, 3 if you're willing to have a garbage collector in Wolf as your #5.

 

I don't want a half-hearted rebuild. I want one that could quickly work. It goes a little something like this:

 

Deal Fielder and Hart ASAP for the best package of high-ceiling AA guys and maybe a Bumgarner-esque guy in the Prince deal. You'll have enough that 2 of them at least will pan out. Then, you'll have the top 4 of your rotation pitching above league average level for a combined total of less than you were paying Jeff Suppan or Randy Wolf. And it will take shorter than you think for them to get there. Use her boatloads of extra cash to buy Penny/Sheets type signings that could bust but as long as they are healthy can pitch as highly productive pitchers and cost you something like $3 million for a 1 year deal.

 

Personally, in the Greinke scenario, sure, it would be fun to see them try to go for it but I see Hart going back down in productivity, I find McGehee to be almost a negative asset at this point with his defensive awfulness and not-so-great bat at 3rd, Escobar probably won't be a ton better next year, we have one of the worst CF situations in baseball right now and I don't think Cain is going to step in and be the answer right away, and LuCroy is nice but could hit a sophomore wall. All that money we talk about saving on our trash contracts going away will be absorbed by the expensive pitching we've traded for which won't be as good as it could be given our atrocious defense and we won't be able to fill in the gaps for all the guys I just mentioned in this paragraph with the $$$.

[Invader3K]

I guess I'm just really disappointed in how things have developed in the past year or so. Some of it is bad luck, as can happen to any sports franchise. Corey Hart got injured at the absolute worst possible time, and I guess there isn't much of a market for big slugging 1Bs such as Prince Fielder right now. No one could have seen Hoffman completely dropping off a cliff since last season and basically killing any trade value he would have had, either. However, I also think Melvin has demonstrated a lack of foresight, and a lack of aggressiveness in addressing the club's core issues. I'm just not seeing any sort of long term planning going on right now to make sure this team makes a serious run at a championship while Braun and Gallardo are still here; and it really concerns me. Maybe Melvin does have a strategy in hand for the off-season, but his latest comments don't really foreshadow anything promising.

 

I can just foresee now that we go into next season again with Hart and Fielder, after Melvin states he wasn't getting good trade offers during the Hot Stove season. We'll sign a veteran reliever to replace Hoffman, and another Davis/Looper type to fill out he rotation. The club will make a play for Cliff Lee (the only truly good free agent starter on the market this winter), but get blown out of the water by the New York Yankees. Melvin will sign a veteran Branyan type bench player that will play pretty well. Finally, the team will play well at the start of the season, but fade in June and July because the rotation isn't good enough. Fielder finally gets dealt for an OK-ish middle of the rotation starter with 2-3 years of service time left, and maybe a decent relief pitcher and other spare parts. Hart plays decently, but not as well as in 2010, and ends up departing in free agency after the 2011 season.

 

Perhaps I am being overly pessimistic. I certainly hope I am. However, the overall makeup of this team just has not gotten it done since October '08. As Albert Einstein famously said, "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." It's time for this team to start doing things differently and thinking outside the box a bit more. We heard enough about this current core of players to expect bigger and better things than a single "one and done" playoff run.

[RockCoCougars]

Perhaps I am being overly pessimistic. I certainly hope I am. However, the overall makeup of this team just has not gotten it done since October '08. As Albert Einstein famously said, "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." It's time for this team to start doing things differently and thinking outside the box a bit more. We heard enough about this current core of players to expect bigger and better things than a single "one and done" playoff run.

I think the key thing here is that Macha needs to go. We can debate all day about the value of a manager, but in the end, it seems pretty obvious to me that these guys just aren't inspired to play for him. Say what you will, but he inherited a playoff team and hasn't been able to get them to play .500 ball. Attanasio needs to outbid the Cubs for Valentine.

 

Some of the blame lies with Melvin as well for his failure to shore up the pitching staff. I know that it's easy to say in hindsight, but plenty of guys were available this past offseason that have outperformed the Wolf/Davis combo (Garland, Myers, etc.)

[Invader3K]

I don't think the manager is the issue. The offense has still hit these past two seasons. Would a guy like Bobby Valentine have been able to coax out that many more wins with the pitching rotation this team has had over the past couple years? I don't think even Connie Mack himself was going to inspire Suppan to throw harder or Parra to not implode on himself every other game.

 

I'm all for Macha being gone after this season, but a managerial acquisition isn't going to cure this team's woes. Most of the blame probably lies with Melvin. I admit I was tentatively behind most of the moves he made this off-season (I wasn't excited by Wolf, Davis, or Hawkins, but figured they were safe moves that would help this year), but when almost none of them have worked out, I think he has to be held accountable to a high degree.

[RobDeer 45]

I think you guys are all too hard on DM. I still think he's done well with the team and his limited budget and limited pull because of the city he's in. I also think many of you think that Prince will hall in tons of prospects and are wondering why he's waiting. There just aren't offers out there for him that are good enough othewise he'd obviously take them. I think you just can't give him away.

 

Every GM is going to be hit or miss, none of them are perfect and I think for what he has to work with he's done an above avg job.

[RockCoCougars]

Overall, Melvin has done OK. Like management in many businesses, it seems his fatal flaw is an unwillingness to admit a mistake and change - the two big examples being the Suppan debacle and Macha. The whole Suppan thing is self-explanatory. Going further, Macha was a poor hire, plain and simple. Five years out, it's pretty obvious that Hudson, Zito and Mulder built Beane and to a lesser degree Macha, not the other way around. Any of us on this board could have managed that team to the playoffs with those guys. Sveum was the obvious choice, but Melvin had to have 'his guy'. I don't have too much of an issue about how he manages a game (though he doesn't utilize the speed on the team and makes the odd decision here and there), but I just get the vibe that he's not popular with the players and he's not an inspiring leader. He pretty much buzz-killed the whole playoff drive mojo (though admittedly losing C.C. contributed as well). If nothing else, Valentine would give the team some spark and try some new things. I agree that digging up Connie Mack isn't the answer as well. He would be another sucky, ex-A's manager. The only reason that he won so many games is that he owned the team.

[Invader3K]

My point was that you can talk about the manager "inspiring guys" and "guys wanting to play for him", all you want. However, if the pitching rotation flat out sucks (worst in the NL last year, near the bottom again this season), there really isn't too darn much any manager can do with that. You have an "ace" who is more like a strong #2 and a bunch of guys who are, at best, #4/5 types. Not really anything a Bobby Valentine can do with that.

 

As for RobDeer45's comments, I don't buy that Melvin's done a great job with his budget. Yes, he's been good at picking up some diamonds in the rough (Loe, Kapler, McGehee, etc). However, he has been horribly inefficient with his budget, especially in terms of pitching. Look at all the dead money tied up in Suppan and Bill Hall. Look at all the money tied up in the signings this off-season that haven't panned out at all. We're not a low payroll team. This is a mid-market team, and at some point I would think Attnasio would question how his budget is being spent for such a low return in terms of wins.

[bill hAll Star]

Overall, Melvin has done OK.

All he's done is take 5 years to build a team that took a late season miracle to make the playoffs. We were still riding high on youth under arby and rookie deals, and he has flipped that team into a $90 million dollar bottom 10, maybe even bottom 5 in the league team. He's a bad offseason/trading deadline away from making the team another 2-3 year rebuilding project for the next guy that comes in.

 

While that is nice, most other general managers given a long leash and a lot of money with a mid-market team have created a longer buzz than Melvin did.

[monty57]

Anyways, I don't see us even getting many offers at all in the offseason. I can't think of many teams with established MLB pitching that have a need for Prince that would give that established MLB pitching away.

 

Especially when they could simply go out and sign someone like Dunn, Konerko, D. Lee or Berkman as a free agent. Plus, Adrain Gonzalez will probably be on the trading block as well.

 

One of the reasons I thought a mid-season trade was attractive was that we could then sign a FA in the offseason with our free cash. The wins between now and the start of next season are pretty meaningless to the Brewers, but they're very important for teams in the playoff hunt, so waiting for the offseason isn't as much of an option for playoff hopefuls as it is for the Brewers.

 

If recent reports are true, it doesn't matter, because Melvin thinks we have a shot at the playoffs, so we aren't trading anyone. The question in the title of this thread may have been answered. For Melvin, it is never time to start selling.

[Invader3K]

Just as an aside...boy, what a boring trade deadline. Last year we at least had hints and rumors that Melvin was trying to work on some big things. He made a marginal move for Claudio Vargas, which was at least something. This year I expect absolutely nothing to happen before 3 PM CST tomorrow.

[wibadgers23]

I think Melvin just hates the idea of selling. Has he ever traded for a high-upside prospect? I believe Sexson, Overbay, and Carlos Lee were all traded for average major league players.

[honuswagner21]

As for RobDeer45's comments, I don't buy that Melvin's done a great job with his budget. Yes, he's been good at picking up some diamonds in the rough (Loe, Kapler, McGehee, etc). However, he has been horribly inefficient with his budget, especially in terms of pitching.

I don't know if it inefficiency or bad luck but chasing average starting pitchers on the wrong side of 30 years old does not inspire confidence. The major problem, in my mind, is the inability of the front office to scout, draft, and develop big league starting pitching. In Melvin's time as GM we have one legit starting pitcher. Do a better job in this area and we can sign the likes of Suppan and Wolf to be back of the rotation starters where they belong and not the saviors of the staff. But since Melvin has failed in this area over the past 8 years, I don't see any reason why the future will be any different.

[RobDeer 45]

I'm just wondering what he could have brought in. He tried to sign guys like Sabathia but we can't get the big time pitchers. All we can do is hope to get an average guy that's on his way down when it comes to FA. I know we don't have a small payroll but we don't have a huge one either. As for us not developing young pitching, how much of that is on him? We take away credit for the young offensive players we have becaue it was Jack who brought them in and we put the blame on Doug for the pitching. I don't know who he's drafted but let's make it fair on both sides. I know we do have Ax and Braddock that are young and good. Of course they are in the pen but we hopefully have some young starters coming up here and you can tell he's put more of an emphasis on pitching in the last few drafts. So I guess we'll see but it's so hard to blame him for FA signings when he's hancuffed by payroll budget and people not wanting to come to Milwaukee. So that maybe takes out the top 33%. He's got to over pay and add years on for it to be worth it for an average guy to come here so it's just setting us up for issues. He's got to be creative and I think he's done a good job of that.

[bill hAll Star]

OK, so let's not put the blame on Doug for not being able to develop/draft the young pitching.

 

That means he deserves no credit for Fielder, Hart, Weeks, etc. as well.

 

See what I did there?

 

You're right,we can't sign the CCs and Johans of the world and are stuck with the Wolfs and Suppans. That's why using that avenue to build a staff should be something essentially that is never used. If it is, buy an arm that has a little life on his pitches, not a guy that relies on his defense to put up decent numbers.

 

Do you ever see the Rays wasting money on this type of thing? And they seem to be doing just fine. Yes, Price was a #1 pick but they also got Garza via a trade for a young bat and nabbed Kazmir when he was pitching well for a "developed" arm of Victor Zambrano, I believe. They may have been blessed with a better farm system of pitching but they didn't panic and blow money to fill out their stiff with overpriced contact-heavy soft-tossers.

 

A team like the Padres, while not exactly small market, could sign a Wolf or Garland and be successful because the defense they play and the park they play in caters to this.

 

If you don't have good pitching in your system, trade your aged bats for some young pitching. That's the only other way to do it.

[RobDeer 45]

I agree totally that trading for pitching and drafting pitching is the only way for a mid market team to compete. You then hope you get a few studs and when it comes time for them to hit FA you trade and re-stock. Because again, pitchers are the most valuable!

[LouisEly]

Coming into tonight the Yankees had scored 545 runs and we had given up 556 runs to the likes of the Stros and Pirates among others.

 

And 146 of those runs were given up by Suppan, Davis, Vargas, Hoffman, Villanueva, and Estrada, who are either no longer pitching for them or will not be pitching for them next year.

 

Suppan and Davis were upgraded for Parra and Narveson, and the rest were upgraded for Axford, Braddock, and Loe. That's a pretty big upgrade. Don't underestimate the hole that was dug for themselves in April and May. In June and July they have a .520 winning % which projects to 85 wins with their current roster. Just a couple of moves (Cain over Gomez in CF, one starting pitcher acquired) and improvement by Escobar offensively and defensively and 90 wins next year is very possible. Heck, it's not a stretch to think that Rogers could make the staff as the #5 starter - skipping him in the rotation on off days to keep his innings down - thus being a SP upgrade. Or even have Rivas make the jump from AA, or both - have Rogers start the first half of the season and then move into the pen to cut down on his innings and call up Rivas to take Rogers place in the rotation. They could flip Hart plus a prospect for a starter, have Gamel move into RF or sign a FA RF, and they don't lose much offensively and get the SP they need.

 

Don't forget that getting rid of Suppan, Davis, Vargas, Villanueva, Hoffman, and Estrada is addition by subtraction.