When is the time to start selling?

[brewmann04]

I still expect The Veterans being moved before Hart or Prince.

[Invader3K]

The Padres should definitely make a move and take advantage of the tremendous season they're having. Everyone wrote them off before the season, and yet they have the best record in the NL. It just seems like they're probably yet another team that won't part with any of their decent pitching prospects. Possibly to their later regret.

[monty57]

If the recent injuries to the Yankees pitchers (Burnett & Pettite) are anything serious, they could potentially be in the bidding for Dave Bush. Of course they may just take on Oswalt's contract, but that may be extreme. If Burnett / Pettite will be out for a while, but will be back later in the season, Bush may be someone they'd like. He's pitching pretty well, and wouldn't cost too much (in prospects or dollars).

 

I like Dave Bush, but the Brewers will get nothing for him when he walks at the end of the season. If we could get some mid-tier prospect(s) and save a couple million dollars, it would probably be worth it. It could also allow us to bring up someone like Rivas (if healthy) to get him some MLB experience until Davis returns. Or, it would open up a spot if Hart/Fielder gets traded for a MLB-ready arm.

[wibadgers23]

The Cardinals are heating up and we're now 10.5 games behind them. I don't know if we're going to start selling, but it's obviously going to take an absolute miracle to catch them or the Reds.

[DougJones43]

...it's obviously going to take an absolute miracle to catch them or the Reds.

More importantly, them and the Reds. We also have to outplay the Cubs. It's just not going to happen.

[logan82]

To answer the original question. 6 weeks ago.

[Invader3K]

We're currently 10.5 back in the division, 10 back in the wild card (with 8 teams in front of us).

 

Melvin better be working the phones.

[trwi7]

How unlikely are the playoffs you ask?

 

Even if the Cards go 30-38 the rest of the way which would give them an 83-79 record, the Brewers would have to finish 41-26 to finish with 84 wins. And that's to say nothing about Cincinnati needing to collapse too.

 

And we're not passing 8 teams to get the wildcard either as that's even more unlikely than St. Louis and Cincinnati collapsing.

[FVBrewerFan]

While I agree they should be sellers, they don't HAVE to make a trade. It's all about value, and you have to just see what you can get. There's always the off-season. I have to believe teams like the White Sox, Giants, Padres, and Braves would love a big bat. Problem is, do they trust Hart's bat? And will they really be willing to give up a SP like Baumgarner (for example) even for Fielder?

 

And that's the only way I would trade Fielder before the deadline. I would have to get a young, top shelf arm with MLB experience, or at least somene in the high minors that pretty easily projects as a top of the rotation SP. Someone with the talent somewhere between Rivas and Strasburg.

[trwi7]

Once again, I'm not sure why we need to get a major league or major league ready starting pitcher for Fielder or Hart. Even with a major league ready starter are we likely to compete next year? No. So take the best talent you can get regardless of where the player is.

 

Take a look at the Teixeria trade and where the players were at that time.

 

Saltalamacchia - AA with a little MLB experience

Harrison - AA

Andrus - A+

Feliz - Rookie ball

Jones - A

 

Saltalamacchia is 25 and in nearly 800 at bats has a .251/.313/.388 career line

 

Harrison is 25 and in 200 innings has a 5.34 ERA, 5.08 FIP and 4.85 xFIP. He still throws relatively hard, especially for a lefty so he still has a chance though.

 

Andrus will turn 22 in a month, finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year vote last year when he was a 3 WAR player and he'll be or at least be close to being a 3 WAR player again this year.

 

Feliz is 22 and in his first 70 innings in the majors has 10.67 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 2.89 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 3.53 xFIP while throwing in the mid to upper 90s. He should really be stretched out as a starter as he's far more valuable in that role.

 

Jones will be 24 in a month and is now a reliever. He still has good stuff with good strikeout numbers but continues to struggle with walks.

 

So the two best players in the deal were an A ball shortstop and a Rookie level pitcher. Take the best talent you can get and hope they all work out even though it's very likely they won't. Don't be shortsighted and demand MLB pitchers or MLB ready pitchers. You're less likely to get a trade done and you very well could be limiting your upside in a trade. I don't care if a pitcher's in A ball, AA, Rookie ball, whatever. If he has a lot of talent and his team is willing to trade him, I'll take him.

[joepepsi]

While I agree they should be sellers, they don't HAVE to make a trade. It's all about value, and you have to just see what you can get. There's always the off-season.

Agreed. Flash forward to July 2011; if Prince and Hart are still on the team then Doug has misplayed his opportunity and he'll HAVE to make a trade. He should listen to any offers this year, but not make a move unless a team blows him away with an offer.

[brewmann04]

Totally Agree with that thinking

[bill hAll Star]

While I agree they should be sellers, they don't HAVE to make a trade. It's all about value, and you have to just see what you can get. There's always the off-season.

Agreed. Flash forward to July 2011; if Prince and Hart are still on the team then Doug has misplayed his opportunity and he'll HAVE to make a trade. He should listen to any offers this year, but not make a move unless a team blows him away with an offer.

The problem is that I have a hard time seeing him get anything better.

 

I would put my life savings on Hart not having anywhere near these numbers at the 2011 deadline, granted, he seems like a guy that will turn it on as hard as possible in a contract year.

 

The idea of 1/2 season of Prince will be appealing, but not as appealing as 1 1/2 seasons.

 

If Melvin sees something remotely good, he needs to pull the trigger. We have no chance to contend with these guys on the roster next year anyways. How we'd build even a moderate pitching staff for 2011 without dealing one of our bats is beyond me. And we all know how it is signing the 2nd and 3rd tier guys to massive contracts to try to patch up the rotation...

[rluzinski]

"I would put my life savings on Hart not having anywhere near these numbers at the 2011 deadline, granted, he seems like a guy that will turn it on as hard as possible in a contract year."

 

Even if the Brewers trade Hart right now no team would expect him to continue what he's been doing. They are going to make some kind of projection for his expected performance, which is going to fall somewhere between his current numbers and his career numbers. Using Hart's updated ZiPS projection:

 

Current: .290 / .348 / .562

Projection: .274 / .333 / .493

Career: .276 / .329 / .483

 

The way I see it, the notion of selling high is based mostly on the falacy that teams pay proportional to a player's current production. The Brewers could trade Hart today but if he continues to beat his 2010 season projection, the Brewers would have actually sold low.

[monty57]

...but it's still selling a lot higher than if Hart had put up an OPS in the pre-season projected .785 OPS range in the first half. So it is selling "high," even if it isn't selling "highest."

 

I think Hart's biggest value is to someone buying a "hot hand" for the playoff run. Everyone should expect him to regress, but a trading partner could hope Hart stays hot for another month before regressing. Deadline trading doesn't have to be overly logical, which is why that's when I'd like to see Hart traded. Logically, why would anyone trade someone of Wade Davis or Mike Minor's value for Corey Hart?

 

If the Brewers don't trade him before the deadline, they have to hope like heck that Corey doesn't go into a prolonged slump in the 2nd half, or they won't get nearly as much for him in the offseason. Conversely, even if he stays hot all season, I don't see anyone giving more than what we've seen rumored for Hart. Granted, these are rumors, and may be way off base. In other words, if these rumors are true, then the risk seems to me to be on the Brewers, as the downside of waiting is substantial, while the upside is minimal.

[bill hAll Star]

The way I see it, the notion of selling high is based mostly on the falacy that teams pay proportional to a player's current production. The Brewers could trade Hart today but if he continues to beat his 2010 season projection, the Brewers would have actually sold low.

The thing for me is that for the rest of 2010, his production is useless. We could put myself out there who would probably put up a .050 OPS and I wouldn't care because the season is done.

 

If he cools down, then you go into the offseason with teams going "see, I knew it" and offer you the package comparable to the low .800 OPS we normally see out of Hart.

 

If he stays hot, you still have 1/2 year less under team control to market to a trade partner this offseason. However, most importantly, you don't have teams saying "well, he may cool down but screw it, we're going for a title in 2010." That is why his value is at its highest now. He's having a career year and some teams will gamble on him keeping that rolling for 3 more months.

[DougJones43]

I think losing the last two games (convincingly) is the best thing that could have happened to this franchise. Hopefully it was the nail in the coffin of Melvin's hopes that some kind of miracle run at the postseason was going to occur.

 

Time to start moving some veterans.

[madrx]

I thought that losing the last 2 games would confirm that we should be sellers too. I was really disappointed by Melvin's remarks to Haudricort today about still needing to get back to .500 and not wanting to trade even relievers unless he got back major league talent. MLBTR also had a comment by Rosenthal that said the Brewers weren't even considering trading Hoffman. I understand he may not feel he needs salary relief, but why not save a few bucks this year and get some prospects who could turn into something for the future.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/99585154.html

[Invader3K]

I posted this thought in the Fielder trade rumor thread; but I'm thinking more and more that Melvin and Attanasio are going to hold on to Fielder (and possibly Hart) to try and make one more run next season.

[crewcrazy]

I thought that losing the last 2 games would confirm that we should be sellers too. I was really disappointed by Melvin's remarks to Haudricort today about still needing to get back to .500 and not wanting to trade even relievers unless he got back major league talent. MLBTR also had a comment by Rosenthal that said the Brewers weren't even considering trading Hoffman. I understand he may not feel he needs salary relief, but why not save a few bucks this year and get some prospects who could turn into something for the future.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/99585154.html

Maybe it's just the fact that we're less than 48 hours away from the deadline now, but Melvin's comments in that blog post sounded to me like blatant posturing. Yeah, it's possible he means what he says and he's turning his phone off until after 3 on Saturday, but it's equally possible that he's just trying to gain some leverage. He's right -- he doesn't have to trade these guys, which is probably what he's been telling everyone who's been calling about Hart, Fielder, and everyone else. To me, this isn't any different than any of the other GM-speak we've heard over the years -- "I'm not motivated to move Lyle Overbay," etc.

[markedman5]

I think all this means is that Melvin will deal Fielder and/or Hart in the off season instead of at the deadline.

 

He has no choice but to make a trade to improve the pitching staff before next season.

[Funketown]

It's easy to be critical of Melvin for not selling, but this trade market just seems exceptionally cold. Honestly, we're probably better off waiting for the off-season and seeing what we can get. As for not selling high on Hart, I'll just echo what rluz said. When GM's look to acquire a player, they don't pay for what he has done, but for what he can be expected to do. I think that just about any of the returns Melvin could have gotten for either Hart or Fielder would have been major disappointments, simply because it was a weak market and we tend to overvalue our own players.

 

It would be nice to ditch a few spare parts, even if they are of minimal value (Hoffman, though we'd have to pick up salary, Villanueva, Edmonds), as this team really doesn't look like they have a playoff run in them.

[bill hAll Star]

It's easy to be critical of Melvin for not selling

Way too easy after you read something like this:

 

Fielder & Hart Are Off The Market

By Ben Nicholson-Smith [July 29 at 8:23pm CST]

The Brewers have decided that they’re too close to contention to sell, according to ESPN.com's Keith Law. An

executive from a club that had interest in a Brewers player explained

to Law that Milwaukee has changed its approach to Saturday's deadline.

That means Prince Fielder and Corey Hart are no longer available to teams seeking power bats.

[Funketown]

^ That says to me that it's a terrible market, and Melvin knows he's not going to get the return he wants. He obviously shopped him around, and didn't get good offers. I'm pretty confident in my belief that we would have all been pretty upset with Melvin if he would have traded either of Fielder or Hart for what he would have been able to receive for them in this market.

[bill hAll Star]

I posted this thought in the Fielder trade rumor thread; but I'm thinking more and more that Melvin and Attanasio are going to hold on to Fielder (and possibly Hart) to try and make one more run next season.

This goes along with another thread about "how does Attanasio/Melvin see us being competitive in 2011"... but how do you even have a shot in 2011?

 

You either literally strip the farm system bare and essentially forfeit 2012-2014 to get modest pitching upgrades via trade or you have no chance of making that run.

 

The Brewers' opponents (they play the MLB worst Pirates/Astros a lot) have scored more runs than the Yankees have scored. That's pretty pathetic.