When is the time to start selling?

[endaround]

I'm not saying its the wrong call. I'm saying its not as easy as people are making it out to be. Sure moving Dave Bush is easy. Cashing in on next year in the middle of this season is not.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm not so sure why everyone wants to cash in 2010 at this point. 8.5 games is a big deficit, but it's not insurmountable. To put things into perspective, the Brewers picked up 3 games over the weekend. Going further, I won't be a bit surprised if the Reds play sub .500 baseball for the rest of the season and the Cardinals have Soup in the rotation, enough said. With 73 games left, the Crew would have to probably go at least 47-26 to have a shot. Is that probable? No. But it's possible. Braun is starting to heat up, and if Prince does as well, these guys could go on a tear. Like I said, I'll wait out the next 2 and a half weeks before I think about making a move. I just don't see how Hart or Fielder would have much higher value at this point than they would in the off season, or next years trade deadline for that matter. This has been demonstrated by the negotiations with the Giants, they don't want to trade anyone who could have value in the MLB for an all-star starter. This isn't the 2001 Brewers, and there isn't as big as dearth of talent that many here feel. Therefore, I feel no need to stockpile 'prospects' that other teams deem acceptable from A and AA. I'm not willing to stockpile talent for 2013. Finally, this isn't the NFL or NBA where veterans are traded for draft picks (many of whom can step in and have immediate impact, which a AA pitcher would not) due to camp ramifications or whatever. If Fielder and Hart are traded, where will that money be used, to sign Ted Lilly or something? Even if it was used to sign Cliff Lee, would you trade Hart and Fielder for Lee? I wouldn't.

[trwi7]

To put things into perspective, the Brewers picked up 3 games over the weekend.

The Brewers also needed to come from behind in the 9th inning twice over the weekend to beat the Pirates.

 

[TheCrew07]

Can someone explain to me how trading these players equates to "cashing in on 2010" or 2011 already? You see, I keep reading the same arguments every year, and from where I'm sitting, the team hasn't gotten any better since 2008?

 

In 2008 it was we couldn't trade X and Y because we'd be punting on 2009.

 

In 2009 it was we couldn't trade W and Z because we'd be punting on 2010.

 

In 2010 we can't trade because we're only C number of games back and we'll be punting on 2011.

 

When does it stop? When is it okay to trade? How are we ever going to get a different result if we continue to operate the exact same way year after year? What about the fact that we've already punted 2009 and 2010 without trying? Yes I know we're still mathematically in it but let's be realistic.

 

We're going to judge the CC deal 2 years later? Oh and by the way, the Brewers screwed Cleveland trading damaged goods in Bryson, he was having shoulder problems all season. Yea I get it, prospects fail... how come those that don't want to trade a player never acknowledge the other side and the deals that worked out fabulously for the sellers? Doesn't it all come back around to scouting due diligence in the end? I don't like Matt LaPorta, but there's no way I'd qualify him as a bust today, it's way too early in his career for that. For every CC deal there's a Teixeira where the best player turned to to be an A baller, or a Garza/Young, or Zambrano/Kazmir.

 

I would rather pay 1 Matt Garza, Mike Minor, or Wade Davis than pay Doug Davis, Trevor Hoffman, Latroy Hawkins, or Randy Wolf. Spending money on Garza makes a hell of a lot more sense than spending it on any of the FAs we did this winter.

 

Things are never going change around here until people become more concerned with value on the dollar than they are about proven production. We don't have to have an ace in the rotation, we'll be a very, very good team with 4 number 2s in the rotation. I've been saying it since day 1... I'm not interested in acquiring Aces, they cost too much to obtain and then later to retain, I've always been into that 2nd tier of young pitching. James Shields, Matt Garza, Jeff Niemann, Clay Buchholz, Ervin Santana, Shawn Marcum, just to name a few I've advocated trading for since 2008... sometimes i've posted about upside guys like Brandon Morrow, if you can hit on a Parra/Morrow type in a trade you've likely won big because they don't cost much to acquire. I've never posted in favor of acquiring Lee, Sabathia, Peavy, whomever. Young #2 type pitchers are the best value to be had in pitching, hence my interest. I want FB velocity, I want an out pitch, I want a K rate over 7, and I'll go from there.

[RockCoCougars]

I would rather pay 1 Matt Garza, Mike Minor, or Wade Davis than pay Doug Davis, Trevor Hoffman, Latroy Hawkins, or Randy Wolf. Spending money on Garza makes a hell of a lot more sense than spending it on any of the FAs we did this winter.

 

Young #2 type pitchers are the best value to be had in pitching, hence my interest. I want FB velocity, I want an out pitch, I want a K rate over 7, and I'll go from there.

Agreed. However I don't see any indication that Garza, Minor or Davis would be available. I'd definitely be on board for Minor or Garza (I'd have to think about Davis). The Giants weren't even willing to part with Sanchez, even with the emergence of Bumgarner. That tells me that teams in contention are going to be pretty unwilling to move an arm that has #2 potential, even if they are in AAA. I think accepting a package of second rate prospects or some high upside A or AA pitchers does constitute packing it in for 2011. No pitcher in the low minors will be ready for then, and just consider where this team would be this season without Hart's bat.

 

As I said, there is no urgent need to move these guys, and no need to dump their salaries. Therefore, I don't understand the rush to move them for the sake of moving them. If a team wants a bat and makes an offer that blows Melvin away, by all means pull the trigger, but there is no need to settle.

 

[Invader3K]

I agree with Crew07 in principle.

 

I just don't see how you can look at this team last season or this season and see them as legitimate contenders. Yes, last year the team was hampered by some injuries and still squeaked out 80 wins, but what about this season? Who has gotten hurt that really mattered? Yeah, Gallardo is on the DL, but should be back sooner than later. Who else is missing that has been so critical? Zaun? Hawkins?

 

It's time to do something different and make some moves. Sometimes you have to take a step back to take two steps forward. Yes, seeing Fielder get traded will hurt. But it's not like there is any way in hell he'll be a Brewer after next season. Read Tom Haudricourt's latest comments. I don't want to see Fielder leave and just get "compensation" picks. Knowing this franchise's luck, we'd get screwed over like with Sabathia. That's just not good enough at this point, in my opinion.

[brewmann04]

I think from reading Tom H blog Price is going to be an ex brewer in the very near future.

[DougJones43]

As I said, there is no urgent need to move these guys...there is no need to settle.

The urgency comes from the fact that their trade value is declining, since each day/week/month that passes is less time that the acquiring team will have them. Therefore it would stand to reason that they'll give up less to get these players if they control them for less time.

 

It's interesting that you mention needing to "settle" because if the team waits until the trade deadline next year to move Fielder, setting is exactly what they'll have to do. They'll have painted themselves into a corner, because there is no way Fielder is going to sign an extension. They will only be able to offer a half-season of Fielder, rather than a full year-and-a-half. And other clubs will know we have to move him, so we will have absolutely no leverage. And for what? To cling to the hope that the team is not mathematically eliminated yet this year?

 

Hart and Weeks are a similar case, but at least with them there is a chance they could be re-signed. Letting Fielder walk for picks, or getting a poor return due to holding on to him too long would be devastating to the future of the franchise. It sucks, but part of remaining consistently competitive in a small market means flipping some of the best players your system produces before they become free agents and have the opportunity to walk away leaving you with nothing but memories -- which is exactly what Prince Fielder will do if we let him.

[RockCoCougars]

As I said, there is no urgent need to move these guys...there is no need to settle.

The urgency comes from the fact that their trade value is declining, since each day/week/month that passes is less time that the acquiring team will have them. Therefore it would stand to reason that they'll give up less to get these players if they control them for less time.

 

It's interesting that you mention needing to "settle" because if the team waits until the trade deadline next year to move Fielder, setting is exactly what they'll have to do. They'll have painted themselves into a corner, because there is no way Fielder is going to sign an extension. They will only be able to offer a half-season of Fielder, rather than a full year-and-a-half. And other clubs will know we have to move him, so we will have absolutely no leverage. And for what? To cling to the hope that the team is not mathematically eliminated yet this year?

 

Hart and Weeks are a similar case, but at least with them there is a chance they could be re-signed. Letting Fielder walk for picks, or getting a poor return due to holding on to him too long would be devastating to the future of the franchise. It sucks, but part of remaining consistently competitive in a small market means flipping some of the best players your system produces before they become free agents and have the opportunity to walk away leaving you with nothing but memories -- which is exactly what Prince Fielder will do if we let him.

I don't agree that their trade values are declining. There is this idea like the whole season by Hart has been a mirage, and that he's going to go Billy Hall or J.J. Hardy on us. Obviously, the Brewers have had bad luck with flame outs in the past, but something is telling me that Hart has actually figured it out. As for Fielder with the subpar season that he's having, I can't imagine his trade value being lower at this point.

[DougJones43]

As for Fielder with the subpar season that he's having, I can't imagine his trade value being lower at this point.

I can imagine -- if the team trading for him was only getting to use him for a few months.

 

Outside of the low RBI total, he's not really hitting that badly. His OBP is still over .400, and he ranks 4th in the NL in that category. His OPS is in the top 15 in the NL as well. Do you really think that a half-season worth of poor RISP hitting is really going to deter a team more than missing out on a full extra year of controlling him???

[PeaveyFury]

more than missing out on a full extra year of controlling him???

 

I think the prevailing opinion is that if they don't trade Fielder this month, that they will trade him this offseason rather than waiting until the deadline next year.

[DougJones43]

more than missing out on a full extra year of controlling him???

I think the prevailing opinion is that if they don't trade Fielder this month, that they will trade him this offseason rather than waiting until the deadline next year.

True, but even in that case the return would still theoretically be declining between now and then, albeit not by the same degree as waiting until next year's deadline. And the only reasons to keep Fielder the rest of this season would be either aiming for the postseason (with a minuscule chance), or trying to squeeze out a few extra wins to get near .500. I don't think either of those goals is a good enough reason to risk getting any lesser of a return.

[trwi7]

There's still a big difference between trading him at the deadline this year and trading him in the offseason. The team acquiring him at the deadline this year would have him for two potential playoff pushes. If that same team trades for him in the offseason they only have him for one.

[PeaveyFury]

True, but even in that case the return would still theoretically be declining between now and then

 

I'm not entirely sure that's true. You open the potential trading partners up to the whole league instead of just those who are pushing (ie, the Cubs aren't going to buy now, but would in the offseason), and you also increase the players that a team can afford to give up (ie, the Giants, who are unlikely to trade away a starting pitcher because they can't afford to open a hole in their starting rotation for their push, when that wouldn't be an issue in the offseason).

[joepepsi]

True, but even in that case the return would still theoretically be declining between now and then

 

I'm not entirely sure that's true. You open the potential trading partners up to the whole league instead of just those who are pushing (ie, the Cubs aren't going to buy now, but would in the offseason), and you also increase the players that a team can afford to give up (ie, the Giants, who are unlikely to trade away a starting pitcher because they can't afford to open a hole in their starting rotation for their push, when that wouldn't be an issue in the offseason).

It's also more likely you'll get a 5-6 player blockbuster type deal in the offseason. Fielder gets packaged with another player say, Salome, Gamel, McGehee, who the other team would have control over for several seasons. In return they trade a bat and a handful of pitching prospects. Or some multi-team deal is worked out during the Winter Meetings when it's easier for GM to talk to several teams at a time.

[Hate those Rodents]

The only good thing about trading, say, ONLY Hart now, is we truly do still have a minor chance this year. Trade Hart and Fielder both and we pretty much don't. But if you can get that potential number two starter for Hart and the kid (whomever it may be) pitches to potential in the second half for us, all of a sudden we can get into the thick of this thing maybe.

[Ennder]

Hart isn't bringing back a major league player in any deal we do with him. He would be traded for prospects if anything.

[kramnoj]

I don't think that can be said with so much conviction. Tampa's best move could be to trade a major league starter for Hart and put Hellickson in the rotation. They may be better off just putting Hellickson in the rotation right now, but if they can improve their offense as well, all the better for them.

[monty57]

The Brewers are talking about going to a six-man rotation after the All Star break, so there is definitely no need to trade for a pitcher who would be on the MLB team this year. However, if we could trade for a Matt Garza/Wade Davis type pitcher, I'd think the Brewers would find a way to get him into the rotation.

 

Trading Bush, who is a FA after the season, makes sense regardless of whether or not we bring someone in. I've been a proponent for keeping Narveson in the rotation, but he could go to the pen if we bring in a good arm. Hopefully, Davis can put together a couple good starts so some team feels he's worth taking a flier on in trade. If he keeps going 3-4 innings giving up a bunch of runs, I could see him getting DFA'd if we still have excess pitchers.

 

Regardless, we could find room for a good arm if we land one. I think the biggest reason we'd get a minor leaguer rather than a major leaguer is that most MLB teams in the playoff hunt would not want to give up one of their starting pitchers. Tampa seems to be one of the few teams who may be willing to give up a MLB arm at this point, due to the presence of Hellickson.

 

To those arguing that trading for AA arm(s) would be punting on next season, I think someone pitching well in AA this year could very easily be on the MLB roster next season. Or, since we already have a nearly full MLB rotation for next year, that player could start the year at AAA, giving us much needed MLB-ready depth and saving some service time, perhaps buying us another service year.

 

I'd guess, based on the rumors flying around, that Hart will be traded for someone who will be in the majors soon (if not this season, then to start next season). That will allow us to get the absolute best value for Prince, whether that is this year or this offseason. Valid arguements can be made as to whether we'd get more by trading him this season or in the offseason, but I doubt there's any way he's not traded, as his value would drop significantly if we wait until next season's deadline. If the best value for Prince is a solid MLB-ready RF and a high-upside AA arm, then that would be fine. Start next year with Yo, Parra, {Minor/Davis-type player received for Hart}, Wolf, Narveson/Rivas/FA and have the pitcher acquired for Fielder start in AAA to fill in when someone's injured or under-performs. We'd also have a solid young RF to offset the loss in offense from trading away Fielder and Hart. We've got prospects who can also help and we'll have plenty of money to fill in any other holes through FA or picking up salary in trade.

 

We'd be a fairly young team with a decent amount of talent that we would control for a number of years. Not tearing up the team, but making a couple moves that will help us field a competitive into the foreseeable future.

[Ennder]

The problem is nobody believes in Hart, pretty much all of the posts you see about him mention that the other team doesn't trust him to keep it up. I just don't think many teams are going to trade a major league level pitcher for Corey Hart at this point. Maybe if he has a big 2nd half as well they will but not mid season.

[monty57]

That's entirely possible, Ennder. I wouldn't believe it if it weren't for all the rumors floating around. They are just that...rumors. However, you'd think some of them would be based on something. Maybe it's simply a reporter hearing "Team X is interested in Hart," and then looking through their roster to see who would make sense.

 

Since this is about the only positive thing going on with the Brewers at this time, I'll hold out hope that Hart will bring us back someone decent :-)

[adambr2]

If we start selling any major pieces (Hart or Fielder), which pretty much would constitute throwing in the towel on the season, I can't think of any reason to hang onto Bush. He'll be a FA, but he won't qualify type B so we'll lose him for nothing anyway.

 

He's got value as a #4 inning eater. Would be a big upgrade for the Padres at the back of their rotation. Clears up our rotation logjam. And gets something in return for someone we'll otherwise get nothing for.

 

Even if you're an advocate of signing Bush this offseason, which I'm not, we could do so after trading him anyway.

[TooLiveBrew]

Imo Bush + Hart to the Pads makes a lot of sense. Not very familiar with SD's prospects, though.

[Thundercat32]

2LiveBrew,

 

Love your handle btw always cracks me up. I wouldn't expect much back. I could see San Diego doing it just simply b/c they need the push for the playoffs. That deal doesn't do much for them at all past this year. Next year I believe Tate will be up with them and their outfield of the future is Tate, Blanks, Decker, Gywnn. Hart could be an improvement over Blanks or Gywnn or maybe not improvement over any of the 4. They do have some arms in their system, but I think we'd be looking at the 3rd or 4th best pitching prospect at best. I'm not sure Hart and Bush aren't more valuable staying put. But hey if they wanna deal Simon Castro count me in.

[pogokat]

Donovan tate has a .725 ops in rookie ball...he won't be starting for the pas before 2013...gwynn is terrible...their current outfield is definitely not holding up a trade