When is the time to start selling?

[monty57]

As much fun as it is to talk about potential trades, I wouldn't want to be Doug Melvin right now. Our record suggests that we should be sellers (or buyers for the future if you prefer), but the team is not that far off from being a contender next year. We've got a solid offense and some good young arms in the bullpen. We could use another guy with top of the rotation stuff, but the only way we could net one is by trading some of that offense. Guys like Gamel and Cain can fill some holes, but its more likely that they go through some growing pains like Escobar than mash like Braun in his rookie year.

 

Between now and the start of next season, Melvin has basically 3 options:

1- Sell off some minor parts with little in return. Hold on to Hart and Fielder hoping that Parra continues to improve and Wolf pitches better. (Probably the most likely scenario and the one that will take the most heat around here).

 

2. Sell of some of our minor parts and one of our bats. Get a pitcher that can help next year. (If we can get a bidding war for Hart or Fielder, this might be possible. Otherwise, we'll end up with a Jonathan Sanchez type, not much of an improvement over what we have).

 

3. Sell everything and aim for 2012/2013. (Huge risk for Melvin. Will likely cost him his job if the prospects we get for Hart and Fielder flame out, but with a little luck we could have an impressive wave of pitchers coming up).

 

I'd still like to see them trade prospects (maybe Gamel and 1-2 young pitchers) for someone like Dan Haren (3 years/$40MM on contract & is rumored to be on the market). Then trade Fielder for a high upside AA arm and a decent MLB-ready bat. Sign Dunn/Berkman/Konerko/D. Lee to a 1-2 year deal in the offseason. If there is a good enough offer for Hart, trade him, otherwise hold him to FA and hope for a 1st rounder/supplemental pick for him.

 

Go into next year with Yo, Haren, Wolf, Parra and one of Narveson/Davis/Rivas/Rogers and a lineup of Weeks, Hart, Braun, FA 1B, McGehee, Cain, Lucroy, Escobar. The player(s) netted in the Fielder trade could fit in there as well. We'll also have the good part of our bullpen back for the next few seasons.

 

Another option is signing Javier Vazquez, who is a high strikeout pitcher limiting need for good defense behind him. He would slot in nicely with our lefty-heavy rotation and could be had relatively cheaply ($10-12MM) after a 4.81 ERA this season with the Yankees. By relatively cheaply I mean in comparison to trying to get in the bidding war for Cliff Lee or trying to sign CC Sabathia a few seasons ago.

 

I hate the thought of trading Fielder, as we won't be able to easily replace him, but I hate the thought of losing him for draft picks a lot more, so I think he needs to be traded. For me, Option #1 would be the worst possible course of action for Melvin. If he goes that route, we'll likely lose Fielder, Hart and Weeks the next offseason, making for a long rebuilding period. In that case, I'd rather he do something crazy to try to land a #1 starter, going for it all next year, a la the Florida Marlins model.

 

Honestly, it's looking more and more clear that Hart and Fielder will both be traded before next season starts. I just pray for wisdom for Melvin. The thought of trading Hart for Sanchez, who will only help us for (I believe) one season before he's a free agent doesn't really sit well with me, and looks more like a band-aid move to try to fix our most pressing need at the moment by opening another hole. If/when Hart & Fielder are traded, we need to bring in players that will help us for a number of years into the future.

[The Truth]

 

Go into next year with Yo, Haren, Wolf, Parra and one of Narveson/Davis/Rivas/Rogers and a lineup of Weeks, Hart, Braun, FA 1B, McGehee, Cain, Lucroy, Escobar. The player(s) netted in the Fielder trade could fit in there as well. We'll also have the good part of our bullpen back for the next few seasons

That sounds like a team that would win 75 games or so in 2011. Which, I suppose, is fine if it is part of a rebuilding towards 2012 and 2013

[monty57]

The Truth]

monty57 wrote:

 

Go into next year with Yo, Haren, Wolf, Parra and one of Narveson/Davis/Rivas/Rogers and a lineup of Weeks, Hart, Braun, FA 1B, McGehee, Cain, Lucroy, Escobar. The player(s) netted in the Fielder trade could fit in there as well. We'll also have the good part of our bullpen back for the next few seasons

That sounds like a team that would win 75 games or so in 2011. Which, I suppose, is fine if it is part of a rebuilding towards 2012 and 2013

 

You think so?

Any of Konerko, Dunn, Berkman or Lee (although he's fallen off a cliff this season) have the capability of hitting as well as Fielder has this season, when we've scored the 4th most runs in the NL. Cain should be an all-around upgrade over Gomez/Edmonds in CF. Escobar ought to be better offensively and defensively, unless every scout who ever watched him was wrong. Hart probably won't hit as well, but Braun should hit better. All told, I wouldn't see a substantial decrease in offense next season from this year with the lineup I listed.

Adding Haren to the rotation would be huge. He could be the #1/2 pitcher we've all been clamoring for and would give us a solid 1-2 punch when teamed with Yo. If Parra continues pitching the way he has as a starter this season, and if Wolf reverts even somewhat back to his "norms," they should be at least an average 3/4 combo. We have plenty of options for our #5, which is the spot players like Narveson & prospects should be fighting for.

If we could maintain a similar offense next season, while upgrading our pitching significantly, I'd think we'd be better. As this year has shown, anything can happen during the course of the season, but I'd think the lineup I listed would project to be better than a 75-win team "on paper" to start the season.

 

[RockCoCougars]

 

Go into next year with Yo, Haren, Wolf, Parra and one of Narveson/Davis/Rivas/Rogers and a lineup of Weeks, Hart, Braun, FA 1B, McGehee, Cain, Lucroy, Escobar. The player(s) netted in the Fielder trade could fit in there as well. We'll also have the good part of our bullpen back for the next few seasons

That sounds like a team that would win 75 games or so in 2011. Which, I suppose, is fine if it is part of a rebuilding towards 2012 and 2013

Really? In my view, this team as constituted should be above .500. A poor bullpen, lack of fundamentals (defense), and mental preparedness has doomed this team to the point of where they have given up. Absolutely no fire whatsoever. That falls to Macha. Going further, being so young and inconsistent up the middle has also crippled this team somewhat. They have a rookie catcher (who has actually stepped up in my view) paired with another who cannot throw, a shortstop who is not ready now (if ever), and a young and very inconsistent center fielder who can't get on base. That falls to Melvin. Food for thought- in August of 1999 Bando and Garner were fired with the squad 8 games under in August, meaning that team was actually playing better than this one. Lopes was 9 under. Macha is heading for 11 under. At what point do you pull the plug?

[joepepsi]

RockCoCougars] Food for thought- in August of 1999 Bando and Garner were fired with the squad 8 games under in August, meaning that team was actually playing better than this one. Lopes was 9 under. Macha is heading for 11 under. At what point do you pull the plug?

All Star Break. This series against the Giants has ruined any hope. I've maintained there is no point in firing Macha, but now it's clear he has to go at the Break. That will give them an excuse to hang up the season and re-tool for 2011.

[Funketown]

Even if it makes no difference, I'm so sick of looking at Macha that I want him fired. My vote goes to that one MiLB ump that threw the rosin bag like a grenade. You can't tell me it wouldn't be more entertaining to watch this team FAIL if he were placed behind the helm...

[naivin]

All Star Break. This series against the Giants has ruined any hope. I've maintained there is no point in firing Macha, but now it's clear he has to go at the Break. That will give them an excuse to hang up the season and re-tool for 2011.

I will be mildly surprised if he is in the dugout tomorrow night. I agree that there is not much that is likley to be gained from it, but I have a hunch they just may pull the trigger today. Just depends what they have in mind relative to a replacement.

[logan82]

Here's the thing as far as "selling" - the pitching is coming. The Brewers have nothing at AAA for starting pitching prospects, but if you look at:

 

AA: Rogers, Butler, Rivas, Fiers (Periard)

A+: Scarpetta, Peralta, Anundsen, Jeffress

A: Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Bucci, Lasker, Howell

 

That's 14 pitching prospects over 3 levels - I don't think I have ever seen that many legitimate pitching prospects in the Brewers system. Usually they have one or two at each level, not four or five. That's an entire staff including bullpen right there, not including their top 3 picks from this year's draft. The pitching is coming. Maybe not until mid-2011 or 2012, but it is coming. And it will be cheap for a while, freeing up cash to spend on other positions Point being, I don't know that we need to load up on pitching prospects as we need to get one really good #2 starter, and we have over $30M coming off the books to be able to acquire it.

I think it might actually be in our best interest to flip Fielder for a bat. I know we really need pitching but how likely are we to get what we really need in a trade.

[The Truth]

monty57 wrote:

 

Go into next year with Yo, Haren, Wolf, Parra and one of Narveson/Davis/Rivas/Rogers and a lineup of Weeks, Hart, Braun, FA 1B, McGehee, Cain, Lucroy, Escobar. The player(s) netted in the Fielder trade could fit in there as well. We'll also have the good part of our bullpen back for the next few seasons

That sounds like a team that would win 75 games or so in 2011. Which, I suppose, is fine if it is part of a rebuilding towards 2012 and 2013

 

You think so?

Any of Konerko, Dunn, Berkman or Lee (although he's fallen off a cliff this season) have the capability of hitting as well as Fielder has this season, when we've scored the 4th most runs in the NL. Cain should be an all-around upgrade over Gomez/Edmonds in CF. Escobar ought to be better offensively and defensively, unless every scout who ever watched him was wrong. Hart probably won't hit as well, but Braun should hit better. All told, I wouldn't see a substantial decrease in offense next season from this year with the lineup I listed.

Adding Haren to the rotation would be huge. He could be the #1/2 pitcher we've all been clamoring for and would give us a solid 1-2 punch when teamed with Yo. If Parra continues pitching the way he has as a starter this season, and if Wolf reverts even somewhat back to his "norms," they should be at least an average 3/4 combo. We have plenty of options for our #5, which is the spot players like Narveson & prospects should be fighting for.

Yeah, I see your point, but there is a lot of "maybe" in there. Haren is having his worst season so far, with an ERA over 4.30 and a higher WHIP than ever. Is that just a blip on the radar or has he turned the corner at the age of 29? (he'll be 30 in September). His K/9 is still as high as ever, that's a good sign... He would certainly be an upgrade over whoever is supposedly our #2 this year (Wolf?).

 

Generally I prefer trading Fielder plus parts maybe for a young great pitcher like a Madison Bumgarner but that may be just a dream, maybe not a chance in reality, but maybe. But yeah I'd prefer a young arm that we could have for 5-6 years at a cheap price

 

Dunn, sure, but I don't see Berkman or Lee putting up Fielder numbers at this stage of their careers. Konerko will be 35 next year but based on this season so far he'd be an upgrade over Prince so it really depends on which veteran 1B we would get

 

I like Cain's potential but there is no guarantee he can consistently hit MLB pitching. Sure Escobar should be improved. I'm a huge Ryan Braun fan but we've gotten a taste this year of how he might struggle without Fielder protecting him in the lineup (though granted if it is Dunn or Konerko batting 4th that is negated)

 

Having said that, if everything rolls right and its Dunn/Konerko on your proposed team and not Berkman/Lee (Berkman has a .797 OPS this year), sure I could see that team running into 83-85 wins, maybe being a pitcher brought in at the deadline from contending for a division title. The Reds and Cardinals looked poised to have very solid pitching for the next few years

 

But if it is Lee or Berkman brought in, yes I could see that team easily being a 75 win team, especially if Haren is now a 4.25 ERA, 1.300+ WHIP guy

 

 

[LouisEly]

Gold, Neugebauer, Jones, Hendrickson, Fredrickson, Gallardo, and I know there were several others rated very high on the Power 50 at that same time.

 

Those guys were spread out over a period of 6-8 years. The Brewers have more than that all at once right now - that's my point. Usually you only had two of those guys in the system at a time (Gold+Neugie, Jones+Hendrickson, Eveland+Gallardo). Now they have 10-15. More spaghetti to throw against the wall and see what sticks.

 

In fact the only three that get me excited on that list as starters are Peralta, Odorizzi and Heckathorn. Naturally they are at the two lowest levels.

I'm not saying they are all aces. Odorizzi could be a #1/#2, Rogers could be a #1/#2 (if he can get the walks down and go longer), Heckathorn & Peralta could be a #3, Rivas/Scarpetta/Butler could be a #4, the others could be #5 and bullpen guys.

[BrewCrewForever]

Keith Law who I take very seriously and who seems to be more right than wrong said Odorizzi should be a #2 at worst once he gets to the big leagues. And he is very high on Peralta, said he should be a #2 or #3. It is just going to take another year or two for these guys to get to us. But once they do, they will help out the rotation a lot.

[Beast Light]

It was time to sell about a year ago. Trade Hart and Weeks for the best young pitching packages you can get. This team is going nowhere and with Yovani out, they are an entire pitching rotation away from being able to compete right now.

[FVBrewerFan]

Gold, Neugebauer, Jones, Hendrickson, Fredrickson, Gallardo, and I know there were several others rated very high on the Power 50 at that same time.

 

Those guys were spread out over a period of 6-8 years. The Brewers have more than that all at once right now - that's my point. Usually you only had two of those guys in the system at a time (Gold+Neugie, Jones+Hendrickson, Eveland+Gallardo). Now they have 10-15. More spaghetti to throw against the wall and see what sticks.

Just not true. I went to the Power 50 archives and randomly picked April, 2005. Who was on the Power 50 at that time? Hendrickson, DeLarosa, Gallardo, Parra, Eveland, Rogers,Sarfate, Jones, Wahpepah. That random Power 50 had more potential than the current pitching prospects. So I understand it may SEEM like they've never had so much pitching talent in the organization as they do right now, it just doesn't hold up to history.

 

In fact, if you look at the Melvin era I would say AA/AAA is below average and A/Rookie is about average compared to every other year since Melvin took over as GM.

[monty57]

I know that was just a random pull, but two of those pitchers are on our staff (Gallardo, Parra), three were used in trades and have been MLB pitchers (de La Rosa, Eveland, Sarfate) and one is still in our system and finally looking like he'll help us after suffering through injuries (Rogers).

 

So, of the nine mentioned, five have had some degree of MLB success and one is likely to help the Brewers in some fashion in the not-too-distant future. Jorge de La Rosa is a bit of a wild card to throw in the mix, as Boston called him up early, used up all of his options long before he was MLB ready, and then traded him off, putting the Brewers in a tough situation with him. Since he's "figured it out," he's become a decent MLB starter.

 

I get your point that we definitely don't have any guarantee that our young pitchers will blossom into a fully home-grown MLB rotation. I think we've had a share of bad luck in having so many of our young pitchers get injured, and I hope that trend doesn't continue. I do think many have written off a lot of our current crop of young arms far too early. For example, it seems many have already chalked Arnett up as a complete bust. Maybe past failures have soured us, or maybe I'm too optimistic on the current group, but I'd have to think that we will get a few MLB starters out of our current minor league system.

 

That said, I'm still all for adding any additional pitching talent we can add. It would definitely be a good thing to have "too much" pitching, where we could even look to trade pitching for help elsewhere. But let's cross that bridge when we find it :-)

[naivin]

As much as I know the Brewers have to trade Prince, I am sure am gonna miss him when he's gone. Great player, HoF bat, good guy, fun to watch...all the reasons the Brewers can't afford him. That said, seeing what Cliff Lee brought back to the M's, Prince is controlled for another year, so I don't think his value could ever be higher. Gotta find a deal and pll the trigger.

[Beast Light]

So, of the nine mentioned, five have had some degree of MLB success and one is likely to help the Brewers in some fashion in the not-too-distant future. Jorge de La Rosa is a bit of a wild card to throw in the mix, as Boston called him up early, used up all of his options long before he was MLB ready, and then traded him off, putting the Brewers in a tough situation with him. Since he's "figured it out," he's become a decent MLB starter.

I think you are setting the bar pretty low for what is considered MLB success. Gallardo is the only difference maker to come out of that group. If the best our current group of pitching prospects yields is Eveland, Sarfate and Parra caliber pitchers, then we are in big trouble.

[pebadger]

As far as Prince goes all this talk makes a whole lotta sense to many here at bf.net. But we have to remember that the vast, vast majority of the 2.5-3M who have filled the seats in the past seasons are NOT here at bf.net and very, very many of them just don't see things from the perspective that many here do. Unless you make a really big deal for Prince I think you're cutting your own throat at the gate. That is a huge consideration for Mark A, because it has to be.

 

I don't envy the brass this decision.

[Invader3K]

Actually, I've heard from quite a few casual fans that heard about the "$200 million" rumor regarding Prince. Most people say, "He's just not worth that." My mom, who is not a baseball expert at all, even said, "They're going to pay a first baseman that kind of money?" I think most fans are smarter than we give them credit for. Not one single person I've talked to has said they should give him a $150-200 million deal.

 

People got over seeing popular players like Burnitz, Sexson, and Lee get traded. They'll get over Prince soon enough, as long as the team gets a good return.

[naivin]

Actually, I've heard from quite a few casual fans that heard about the "$200 million" rumor regarding Prince. Most people say, "He's just not worth that." My mom, who is not a baseball expert at all, even said, "They're going to pay a first baseman that kind of money?" I think most fans are smarter than we give them credit for. Not one single person I've talked to has said they should give him a $150-200 million deal.

 

People got over seeing popular players like Burnitz, Sexson, and Lee get traded. They'll get over Prince soon enough, as long as the team gets a good return.

I agree. I think even casual fans are resigned to the fact that Prince will soon be gone, and I think most of those understand it.

[pebadger]

I agree that fans understand the big numbers being thrown around. I don't know if they fully appreciate exactly what they can/should expect in return for Prince, and particularly the idea that once you've decided to move him that he's ony worth what somebody will give you. If the trade isn't "good enough", people will be upset and that could have repercussions at the gate. The same sort of thing happens all the time at estate auctions or in divorce settlements. Very many people are very sadly disappointed to find out that an item they hold dear isn't going to bring back the value that they place upon it. Worse, this happens even when the value they place on it is largely "correct", but unattainable, due to the circumstances of the sale.

[LouisEly]

I agree that fans understand the big numbers being thrown around. I don't know if they fully appreciate exactly what they can/should expect in return for Prince, and particularly the idea that once you've decided to move him that he's ony worth what somebody will give you. If the trade isn't "good enough", people will be upset and that could have repercussions at the gate. The same sort of thing happens all the time at estate auctions or in divorce settlements. Very many people are very sadly disappointed to find out that an item they hold dear isn't going to bring back the value that they place upon it. Worse, this happens even when the value they place on it is largely "correct", but unattainable, due to the circumstances of the sale.

In reading this post, particularly the last two sentences, I immediately thought of the Hardy and Overbay trades.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

I think that the conversation of "trade or sign Fielder" needs to stop. He will become a free agent. That is what Scott Boras guys do. It just becomes a matter of when do we pull the trigger. That is why I think we need to keep Hart. We just don't have a lot of power in the organization once Prince goes. I also don't know how much power we will get in return for Fielder.

[Mr QL]

The time to start selling is when Doug Melvin is gone. Otherwise I just try to win with the team we have now.

[RockCoCougars]

I know a lot of you are going to hate me saying this, but they sit only 8.5 games back now. With 73 games left, including 12 against the team you are chasing, they aren't quite dead yet. Just when I think they are done, they keep pulling me back in. Cincy is starting to scuffle a little bit. I think you have to wait until at least the next road trip is over (of which 4 are in Pittsburgh). There is also conveniently a 3 game stretch against the Reds at home right before the deadline.

[JJHardy7]

In reading this post, particularly the last two sentences, I immediately thought of the Hardy and Overbay trades.

 

I'd be fine with bringing back the same relative value for Prince. In other words, I think we got comparable value at the time of each trade. The Overbay trade was a pretty good one IMO. The Hardy trade could be a wash, but I guess Gomez could still turn it around.

 

I think one problem is fans over value their own players. I'm not saying at bf.net we all do that, but Prince will be a completely different item IMO compared to trades made in the past few years. We and other teams more or less know what he is going to produce and he's done it at an elite level. Has DM made a big trade like this? Lee, etc. isn't really a fair comparison.

 

In terms of selling, I don't know that the team's record has a ton to do with the important trades. I guess we could trade some of our veterans at any point. That really wouldn't bother me. A guy like Prince needs to be traded at his highest value. If that is this July, that is fine. If it is this off-season, I think we should wait. I just don't want to see us become buyers unless we go on a crazy tear. I wouldn't mind adding guys for little minor league value, but I don't want to see us give up some of our top prospects for anything.