When is the time to start selling?

[Ennder]

Generally, and this would hold true for a vast majority, if a pitcher is at 20+% for a year they are either hurt or at the end of the line. Grooving meatballs has more to do with bad pitching than it does with luck.

 

Grooving meatballs increases all flyballs and LD not just HR. If your FB rates are steady and your HR/FB jumps it is almost always just random fluctuations which most people call luck. Pitchers have very little control over their own HR/FB%.

 

Watch the HR derby, the pitchers are trying to groove fastballs in there and the hitters still don't hit HR on even half the pitches, many of them only hit 1 or 2 out of 12. Just making a bad pitch isn't anywhere close to all that goes into a HR.

[thumperden]

Right. Baseball Prospectus (same report) projects the Brewers to have about 75 wins.

[Ennder]

Yeah I don't think anyone thinks we shouldn't be sellers because while the team has underperformed the games still count and now they need to vastly over-perform to have even a chance at the playoffs.

[sheethead]

And the bad BABIP is because of a bad defense.

 

And bad pitching. To some degree BABIP explains luck, to another degree it explains bad pitching. Bad pitchers will have high BABIP (and no I don't think Braddock is a bad pitcher).

 

I really shouldn't have to explain this, but the defense the last three games is a microcosm of the defense this entire year. But go ahead and make fun. I am comfortable with my belief that this team's defense is b.a.d. by looking at the whole year... and last year.

[sheethead]

many of them only hit 1 or 2 out of 12

 

Last year, 2 of 8 participants hit less than 33% of the pitches swung at for a home run.

[logan82]

It just seems that every time luck is brought up on this site that it is to say that things aren't really that bad, when in fact maybe they are. Maybe the Brewers are actually fortunate to have the wins they do.

 

That is because people generally don't post as much when good luck happens or players are playing really well.

[Ennder]

Brewers were probably lucky in 2008 and were lucky in 2005 for sure, that 2005 team was nowhere near a .500 team. They probably played relatively close to their talent last year and 2006 and 2007.

[derflotr]

Not sure "selling" is the perfect term, but the fact that the team is standing still is driving me wild. Time to do something. Doug, it isn't working.

[markedman5]

Looks like we are getting unlucky again tonight................

 

It looks an awful lot like bad baseball to me. 3 HR's allowed in the first. A foul ball that Casey lets drop, error by Narveson and not taking advantage of numerous baserunners in the first 4 innings.

 

7-1..........This team stinks.

[BrewCrewForever]

Time to sell, don't have to "blow up" the team. But some tinkering and moves need to be made. This is not the year, get ready for 2011.

[Ennder]

You know the Brewers kind of did this same thing when Sheets would go down too. Lose your big stud player and then just play like absolutely crap top to bottom for a week or two.

[rluzinski]

Teixeira and Fielder have remarkably similar batting stats, but Teixeira is a Gold Glover defensively. Fielder and Teixeira do not have equal trade value.

Of course they don't. Teixeira's contract probably pays him more than he projects to be worth while Fielder will probably make somewhere close to what he's worth over the next 1+ years. If those assumptions are correctI, Fielder is worth more in a trade.

I was saying that in reference to those who look at Teixeira trades in the past and thinking that is what a Fielder trade will bring in. I'm saying that Teixeira is a better overall player and Fielder's trade value isn't what Teixeira's was in the past. Not comparing their trade values in 2010

 

Sorry. Got ya. That's what I get for jumping into a thread midstream.

[LouisEly]

Here's the thing as far as "selling" - the pitching is coming. The Brewers have nothing at AAA for starting pitching prospects, but if you look at:

 

AA: Rogers, Butler, Rivas, Fiers (Periard)

A+: Scarpetta, Peralta, Anundsen, Jeffress

A: Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Bucci, Lasker, Howell

 

That's 14 pitching prospects over 3 levels - I don't think I have ever seen that many legitimate pitching prospects in the Brewers system. Usually they have one or two at each level, not four or five. That's an entire staff including bullpen right there, not including their top 3 picks from this year's draft. The pitching is coming. Maybe not until mid-2011 or 2012, but it is coming. And it will be cheap for a while, freeing up cash to spend on other positions Point being, I don't know that we need to load up on pitching prospects as we need to get one really good #2 starter, and we have over $30M coming off the books to be able to acquire it.

 

The other thing is that I don't see an impact bat anywhere close to what Fielder brings (or has the potential to bring) coming up. I don't see any hitters, much less LH hitters, with the potential to be 1.000 OPS guys in the majors. If they get rid of Fielder then what do they have as far as impact LH bats? None. I say make a legitimate run at Fielder because right now the only players committed to a significant amount of money for 2012 are Braun, Gallardo, maybe Parra if he keeps pitching well as a starter, and Wolf - he could be off the books in 2013. For those of you who say just replace Fielder w/Adam Dunn, Dunn is making $12M this year, not much less than what Fielder will command in free agency. If the return on trade for Fielder isn't as good as Teixeria, then the free agent demand for him won't be as high either and thus his salary won't be as high.

 

If they are going to "sell" Hart and/or Fielder, then I say flip some of those prospects for a legit #2 starter who will be around for a couple of years, particularly if the free agent pitching crop is poor. Be both "sellers" and "buyers". But right now I am not in favor of being "sellers" just to acquire prospects. They have pitching prospects, they are just 1.5-2 years away. They don't need to overhaul the roster; they need to do five things:

 

1) Find a manager with leadership skills

2) Find a legitimate #2

3) Have Braun/Fielder revert to career norms

4) Have Escobar improve offensively and defensively

5) Improve CF offensively

 

That's it. And if Parra can be effective beyond 90 pitches and Cain can play CF they may be able to accomplish all of those things internally. As others have mentioned they have an ERA under 4.00 since June 1st (maybe not after tonight). They've gotten rid of some of the dead weight (Suppan, Vargas, Stetter, Estrada), put some of it on the DL (Davis, Hawkins), and some of it has righted the ship (Hoffman - 1 ER in last 8 appearances). Just think of all the games those seven cost us alone - 8? 10? They could easily be 45-39 just as they are 37-47. They don't need drastic changes - anymore.

They've already made them by getting Suppan/Davis/Hawkins/Vargas/Stetter/Estrada off of the roster.

[Invader3K]

This team is toast.

 

Tom Haudricourt with a beautifully blunt summary on what a horrible position the team is in right now.

 

"It would be easy to classify the Brewers a train wreck at this

particular juncture. Trains seldom wreck this badly, however."

[JonnyLungs]

Here's the thing as far as "selling" - the pitching is coming. The Brewers have nothing at AAA for starting pitching prospects, but if you look at:

 

AA: Rogers, Butler, Rivas, Fiers (Periard)

A+: Scarpetta, Peralta, Anundsen, Jeffress

A: Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Bucci, Lasker, Howell

Maybe I'm overly pessimistic but I'd expect maybe one or two of those players to become above average starters. Some will end up being no better than Chris Narveson, some will get hurt, some will end up wishing they had Chris Narveson's career and others will end up as relievers with varying degrees of success.

 

Just the nature of pitching prospects. In fact the only three that get me excited on that list as starters are Peralta, Odorizzi and Heckathorn. Naturally they are at the two lowest levels.

 

You can never have enough pitching prospects. Just because things might look good in the lower levels of the minors doesn't mean that most of those prospects will end up being more than a hill of beans.

[RobDeer 45]

I agree we have some good pitching coming up (including what we have up in the bigs now, Ax, Bradock) but I still think you need to always add more. It just increases the odds of finding that Ace that can carry your team. Plus remember, pitching is what brings in the most value when trading. So when you have an abundance of pitchers you have a lot of options. I agree we should try to snag a bat from time to time but the kid we drafted this year is supposed to have a good bat. For me, pitchers, pitchers, pitchers.

 

I still am in the camp that thinks we won't get a ton for Prince. We should be able to get a few good prospects but don't get all excited like we are going to fetch a handful like when the twins traded Johan. There is just not that much demand for position players.

[FVBrewerFan]

AA: Rogers, Butler, Rivas, Fiers (Periard)

A+: Scarpetta, Peralta, Anundsen, Jeffress

A: Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Bucci, Lasker, Howell

 

That's 14 pitching prospects over 3 levels - I don't think I have ever seen that many legitimate pitching prospects in the Brewers system.

 

Some folks here have a better memory than I do, but we've been here before, fairly recently. Gold, Neugebauer, Jones, Hendrickson, Fredrickson, Gallardo, and I know there were several others rated very high on the Power 50 at that same time. That group actually had more guys with real filthy stuff compared to the current group.

 

Plus, that above list is stretching it a bit with Bucci, Scarpetta, Anundsen,Fiers, etc. Out of that list, Rivas and Peralta project to be mid-bottom of the rotation type starters. Odorizzi and Heckathorn look like very good so far, but it's just too early. I'll agree the pitching in the system, is deeper than it has been the past 5 years or so, but I don't see guys at this point that project as top of the roatation type starters within the next couple years at least.

[monty57]

I agree that Prince will be hard to replace, and I'd love to extend him, but the timing of Boras' "$200MM contract" comment tells me that he is not going to sign an extension right now, but rather is going to test free agency. At that point, it went from "should we sign Prince" to "what is the best way to maximize Prince's value to the Brewers franchise." Melvin should shop Prince, and see what offers come up prior to the trade deadline. If no one will offer enough this season, then trade him in the offseason. There are valid reasons to believe we'd get more during the season and valid reasons to believe we'd get more in the offseason. I hope Melvin puts the feelers out and gets the best return possible, whenever that may happen.

 

As pie in the sky as I may have sounded in some posts in this thread, I've been calling for this team to start looking at trading off some players for quite some time. We don't have enough talent on this team to overcome the awful start we had. At this point, we'd have to play good baseball simply to end up as a .500 team. I hope Melvin plays SF's public desire for Hart well. He should be on the phone with everyone trying to get a bidding war started. I have to imagine the Padres, Dodgers and Rockies don't want SF to land Hart and would at least like to drive up the cost.

 

A few other things I'd like to see:

-We should also see what the market is for other players who aren't part of the future like Edmonds, Counsell, Hoffman and Bush. I don't expect huge returns, but we could get something for them, even if it's A/AA prospects and salary relief.

-As bad as he's been offensively, Gomez needs to play everyday so we can see if he's going to be part of the future or if we'll put Cain in CF next year and find a RF in FA or retain Hart. If Gomez is no more than a .650 OPS hitter, and we trade Hart, we'll need to find a RF somewhere.

-Parra needs to stay in the rotation as he could be a huge part of the future, and Davis probably should as well, either to see if we can trade him later this season or to see if he finds his form and his option is excersized.

-We should probably make a conscious effort to monitor Yo's workload for the remainder of the season.

-If we are going to trade Hart/Fielder, I hope they already have in mind what they're going to do with Gamel/McGehee. If Gamel's going to RF/1B, they should move him immediately so he gets as much AAA practice at the new position as possible.

 

As far as I'm concerned, whether we end up with 70 or 80 wins doesn't matter... we're still out of the playoffs. I'd rather win 70 and get some value in return for players who are going to walk then win 80 and get nothing as the players walk.

[brewmann04]

instead of using the word selling try improving?

[davego]

That is a good way to put it if the application is improving for 2011 and beyond. Nothing wrong with moving what you can move that helps a contender this year and gives the 'Crew flexibilty for next year. As pointed out in the thread, there are pitiching prospects coming, but not really for next year and we all know you can't have enought. Sadly, I suspect next year will look much like this year in the fact that DM or whomever will have to resort in sigining a volume of arms and hope a few stick...I'd almost rather punt on 2011 too and target resources for 2012.

[giffted1]

As much fun as it is to talk about potential trades, I wouldn't want to be Doug Melvin right now. Our record suggests that we should be sellers (or buyers for the future if you prefer), but the team is not that far off from being a contender next year. We've got a solid offense and some good young arms in the bullpen. We could use another guy with top of the rotation stuff, but the only way we could net one is by trading some of that offense. Guys like Gamel and Cain can fill some holes, but its more likely that they go through some growing pains like Escobar than mash like Braun in his rookie year.

 

Between now and the start of next season, Melvin has basically 3 options:

1- Sell off some minor parts with little in return. Hold on to Hart and Fielder hoping that Parra continues to improve and Wolf pitches better. (Probably the most likely scenario and the one that will take the most heat around here).

 

2. Sell of some of our minor parts and one of our bats. Get a pitcher that can help next year. (If we can get a bidding war for Hart or Fielder, this might be possible. Otherwise, we'll end up with a Jonathan Sanchez type, not much of an improvement over what we have).

 

3. Sell everything and aim for 2012/2013. (Huge risk for Melvin. Will likely cost him his job if the prospects we get for Hart and Fielder flame out, but with a little luck we could have an impressive wave of pitchers coming up).

 

[pebadger]

I think that sums things up pretty well, giffted. There really isn't a very clear path forward. I just don't see the value being there for Prince in terms of an in-season deal. There might be a decent deal out there for Hart in terms of baseball value, but nothing that will really make the general mass of fans say "Wow". I tend to think 1) is the way to go, but only if it is accompanied by a serious internal reappraisal of what that path means beyond the next 2-3 years. This will mean continued unrest in terms of public perception, but that really shouldn't be a huge concern unless it significantly disrupts the revenue stream. I don't think it will in the immediate/short term, but the players will have to come through and generate some excitement out of the gate next season to keep it from becoming a serious issue.

[igor67]

The problem this team truly faces in some sense is that of the difficulty of going from a .500 team to a contender is much harder than going from scrub to .500. The obvious improvements are the hardest to do (top of rotation starters). Most other improvements would be much smaller, and or represent trade-offs often offense for defense. In large part the pitching difficulty this year has been exagerated by the poor defense at multiple positions. The infield defense generously has 1 average defender currently (Escobar) and the rest below average. The OF defense when Gomez isn't playing is below average across the board. This more than anything has created the impression of the rotation being in such a tattered state. If you have a bunch of back of the rotation guys behind possibly the worst defense in the NL, it's not going to look to good.

I don't necessarily advocate going crazy and trading off our bats for gloves, but any successful strategy for improvement needs to somehow generate defensive improvement at multiple positions. On the pitching side I'm a little less optimistic than LouisEly. It's a solid crop that I feel confident can supplement the rotation and reliably fill out the bullpen without us having to continually shell out 15- 20 million a year, but barring some luck I don't see there being quite enough to get us more than middle of the road.

[joepepsi]

One game shouldn't get a manager fired, but this homestand may be Macha's last hurrah. I didn't think he'd be fired during the season until last night. A poor homestand leading up the All Star game is a catalyst for firing the manager, and using that as justification to chuck the season and start planning for 2011.

[Invader3K]

joepepsi, I've been thinking exactly the same thing, especially after seeing the last three games. I figured Macha would be here until the end of the year, since firing him doesn't really accomplish anything at this point. However, the team has looked incredibly bad and non-competitive; and there also seems to be a growing discontent in the fan-base. I would not be shocked to see him fired after this Sunday.