When is the time to start selling?

[uwisfan]

it's not just that they are 10+ games back... its that they are this far behind 2 teams. Both teams will need to suck in the second half, while the Brewers exceed all expectations. Plus, its not like this is the best division in baseball even, that the division winner will be expected to go far.

 

I'd reconsider if they were 7 out of of first and 5 out of second by allstar break, which aint happening

[bill hAll Star]

He'll trade for a reliever and a backup infielder. Mark my words.

Are you basing this on anything other than last season?

Graffanino, Linebrink, Durham (somewhat of a starter), Ray King, David Weathers, Lopez.

 

I think it was a fair comment.

[viaarete]

Nate82 had a really good comment in this thread that I'd like to pursue further: There aren't a whole lot of 1-for-1 trades with Prince available. Hell, there aren't any I can think of that would be remotely acceptable. I think if Melvin or Attanasio (whoever makes the calls, probably much more A than M) get serious about making this team a contender, they have to get "creative" (thanks nate) with their trading. Prince really, really should be traded this year. With a year-and-a-half left on his contract, he's at his best value. He's a year younger than he will be next year, and everyone (excepting, hopefully, our potential trade-partners) should foresee his numbers dwindling. Now is the time to trade him, but since there's no direct trade I can see happening, something crazy might need to happen.

 

What kind of craziness can you conjure up? Maybe Fielder, Hart, Gamel for Cliff Lee? Maybe something crazier; maybe something less crazy - some combination needs to happen, I think, to land the value for our players that are currently playing at higher levels than they will for the rest of their career (see: Fielder, Hart, Bush, [probably] Gamel, Weeks, Loe, Braddock [maybe, maybe] Axford)

[bill hAll Star]

Nate82 had a really good comment in this thread that I'd like to pursue further: There aren't a whole lot of 1-for-1 trades with Prince available. Hell, there aren't any I can think of that would be remotely acceptable. I think if Melvin or Attanasio (whoever makes the calls, probably much more A than M) get serious about making this team a contender, they have to get "creative" (thanks nate) with their trading. Prince really, really should be traded this year. With a year-and-a-half left on his contract, he's at his best value. He's a year younger than he will be next year, and everyone (excepting, hopefully, our potential trade-partners) should foresee his numbers dwindling. Now is the time to trade him, but since there's no direct trade I can see happening, something crazy might need to happen.

 

What kind of craziness can you conjure up? Maybe Fielder, Hart, Gamel for Cliff Lee? Maybe something crazier; maybe something less crazy - some combination needs to happen, I think, to land the value for our players that are currently playing at higher levels than they will for the rest of their career (see: Fielder, Hart, Bush, [probably] Gamel, Weeks, Loe, Braddock [maybe, maybe] Axford)

Fielder/Hart/Gamel for Cliff Lee? Is that the same Cliff Lee that would leave Milwaukee for a 100+ million dollar deal after this year's non-playoff season?

 

Seattle gave us the Brewers 40 years ago but we might be paying back the favor now 10-fold if we make that trade.

 

Personally, if the Brewers are "getting creative" they should get the haul the Rangers for from the Braves for Teixeira. Andrus, Saltalamacchia (but hopefully he doesn't bust from injury problems as the #1 prospect at the time), Feliz, and another guy with potential. That's the only way to rebuild this trainwreck of a team. No more Mench/Cordero/Nix packages please. I want polished prospects with some potential that are ready to help us in 2011 or 2012 and cost us minimal $$$ for 6 years.

[logan82]

He'll trade for a reliever and a backup infielder. Mark my words.

Are you basing this on anything other than last season?

Graffanino, Linebrink, Durham (somewhat of a starter), Ray King, David Weathers, Lopez.

 

I think it was a fair comment.

Different circumstances for some of those trades.(Durham) Some we didn't really give up anything for.(Graffanino, Linebrink, Weathers, Lopez, King) I know who we gave up for Graffanino but he didn't do anything for more than a year after that trade.

[pebadger]

I think somebody mentioned this before in a thread, but I don't like the whole notion of pigeon-holing a team as a buyer or seller. The team should simply be trying to get better. The only transaction that is truly a "sale" is a straight salary dump. This organization needs to develop a plan and then make transactions in which they actually use assets they have now to acquire assets that will help them meet their goals.

 

You may say that this is semantics, and to an extent that is true, but they are semantics that evidence a certain mindset. "Sellers" are pessimists and prone to giving away the store out of frustration. "Buyers" are often overly-optimistic and their focus on short-term goals sometimes blinds them to the big picture, causing them to overpay for the things they want now. It's all about value, and value is very often about timing. I don't care if Prince gets traded now, or over the winter or next year, or never, so long as the price is right. I honestly don't care if they make a move at all this season, so long as they don't just make a move to make a move, or make a bad one. It's hard for fans to evaluate this stuff in the here and now since we aren't privy to the internal goings on.

[bill hAll Star]

Different circumstances for some of those trades.(Durham) Some we didn't really give up anything for.(Graffanino, Linebrink, Weathers, Lopez, King) I know who we gave up for Graffanino but he didn't do anything for more than a year after that trade.

If you take De La Rosa's Colorado stats (half his games in Coors field, mind you), he'd probably be our 2nd best pitcher. I realize he's been hurt this year, but I think he's been more productive than Graffy the past 3 years.

 

Durham was fine, but again the poster joked that we always trade for utility infield and middle relief.

 

We'd have a major league reliever in Thatcher for Linebrink (given the volatility of only a few innings of relief, 25, had we just brought up a cheap replacement I'm sure he could have essentially mirrored Linebrink's production). Also, Inman and Garrison still have a chance to be productive pitchers. Scott Linebrink pitched 25 innings for a team that I believe was 6 games out and 2-8 in their last 10 or so. I'm just tossing those numbers out there but I remember any conscious fan knowing we were out at that point. We did get comp picks here though. The Cubs were surging hard and I guess I'm wrong here, we were in first but I think the writing was on the wall that we weren't going to hold on. And Linebrink with 25 innings wasn't going to change that.

 

For Lopez we gave up a guy that is in the majors right now. Gillispie isn't a monster by any means right now but it was value. And we didn't offer Lopez arby so we got nothing and we were massively out of it when we dealt for him.

 

I think we basically flushed 1-2 million down the drain for Weathers.

 

And honestly, we were a miracle run (not as massive as this one) away when we made all of these trades except Durham. We may not have given away all-star caliber prospects in these trades, but they are value that can be flipped in a trade when you actually are in contention, or can fill the back of your bullpen instead of leaving roster spots available for Doug to blow it on late-30's relief.

 

It's trades like this that just make me scratch my head. Like the Matt Morris deadline deal for the Pirates when the Giants were going to cut him and the Pirates were 10+ games out already where they had to pick up 8 figures of salary, I believe. Or the Royals trading for Yuniesky Betancourt in 2009. The only reason the Brewers aren't AS pathetic as those 2 franchises of late is because they nailed it with Braun, Fielder, etc. and do have an owner that isn't going to purge that prematurely. I just don't get why some teams that are awful and should rebuild trade for mediocre vets at the deadline. Once in a blue moon if you are just really hurting for major league talent at a spot but it shouldn't be done more than that.

[logan82]

The way it typically gets used, sellers are making trades mainly with the year(s) after the current year in mind and buyers are trying to make the playoffs this year often giving up future talent. That is generally how it gets used. The rest is semantics.

[endaround]

DeLaRosa wasn't going to be on the Brewers the following season. He wasn't good enough. The guy couldn't hold on with KC.

[brewmann04]

I think they should make known who aviable and hope someone overpays for someone.

I don't have any problem with the Crew being sellers right after the Break.

[adambr2]

Nate82 had a really good comment in this thread that I'd like to pursue further: There aren't a whole lot of 1-for-1 trades with Prince available. Hell, there aren't any I can think of that would be remotely acceptable. I think if Melvin or Attanasio (whoever makes the calls, probably much more A than M) get serious about making this team a contender, they have to get "creative" (thanks nate) with their trading. Prince really, really should be traded this year. With a year-and-a-half left on his contract, he's at his best value. He's a year younger than he will be next year, and everyone (excepting, hopefully, our potential trade-partners) should foresee his numbers dwindling. Now is the time to trade him, but since there's no direct trade I can see happening, something crazy might need to happen.

 

What kind of craziness can you conjure up? Maybe Fielder, Hart, Gamel for Cliff Lee? Maybe something crazier; maybe something less crazy - some combination needs to happen, I think, to land the value for our players that are currently playing at higher levels than they will for the rest of their career (see: Fielder, Hart, Bush, [probably] Gamel, Weeks, Loe, Braddock [maybe, maybe] Axford)

 

If Melvin traded Fielder, Hart, and Gamel for a Cliff Lee rental, I think that would probably officially begin my 5 year boycott of Brewer baseball.

[viaarete]

Ok... so Fielder, Hart, Game for Cliff Lee is pretty ridiculous (in fairness: I didn't have any inkling of what his contract situation was).

But throw out some other crazy-good pitcher with a longer contract: what then? I think we have prospective bats to fill in the holes left by Fielder's and Hart's departures; plus with a fat 1B crop of FAs up ahead, it would be (at least potentially) feasible to bring in a big bat in the off-season. I'm just wondering how far into "all-in" we could or should go to land a second ace-type pitcher.

[monty57]

If a team is willing to trade a player with 1-2 years of control left, they're probably looking for prospects (especially at pitcher, as pitchers normally aren't "blocking" other players). Therefore, if we are looking at picking up that type player, we have to be willing to trade some of our prospects to get him. Conversely, if we are trading players like Hart & Fielder, we are looking for players with more than 1-2 years of service time available, so Fielder / Hart aren't the players we'd use in this situation.

 

It is possible that we'd trade a player for a SP with a few years of control left and (in different moves) trade Fielder / Hart for young players with more service time. I've mentioned this before, but one example of this would be trading Gamel (and maybe 1-2 low-level pitchers) for Dan Haren (I believe 3 years, $40MM left on contract after this season). Then trade Fielder for a young arm and young bat. We've then got Yo, Haren, Parra, Wolf for a few years to complement what should still be a good offense, especially if we sign someone like Dunn or Lee to play 1B for a couple seasons.

[brewmann04]

throw everyone out there and hope some team is super desperate.

[logan82]

Thatcher best case scenario is redundant with Stetter. Gillispie, backup outfielders are there to find every year. Our backup outfielders are not a weakness on our team.

[endaround]

Really the biggest loss of recent vintage is Gwynn if you believe UZR in Petco (and I have serious reservations with it in the OF there, somehow that happens to be the only place Mike Cameron couldn't field)

[LouisEly]

Three everyday above-average players, one a superstar, for one player who plays every 5 days at a position that is very injury-risk high (see Gallardo, Peavey this week alone) is not my idea of a good trade. If you are trading players the caliber of Fielder, Hart, and Gamel I would need more than one pitcher in return.

 

Fielder should be able to get comparable to what Texas got for Tiexeria. Substitute a pitcher for Saltalamacchia and a pitcher or lower-level SS prospect for Andrus.

[bill hAll Star]

So of all you guys saying the Brewers could contend next year, do you guys think these teams are playoff/world series potential for next year?

 

Baltimore

Pittsburgh

Arizona

Cleveland

Houston

Seattle

 

Those are the only 6 teams worse than the Brewers right now.

[danzig6767]

Three everyday above-average players, one a superstar, for one player who plays every 5 days at a position that is very injury-risk high (see Gallardo, Peavey this week alone) is not my idea of a good trade. If you are trading players the caliber of Fielder, Hart, and Gamel I would need more than one pitcher in return.

Fielder should be able to get comparable to what Texas got for Tiexeria. Substitute a pitcher for Saltalamacchia and a pitcher or lower-level SS prospect for Andrus.

The way that trade backfired on Atlanta is one reason why i highly doubt the Brewers could get a package that good. Mix in that most big spending teams that might be willing to pay Fielder don't have a big need at first base, i don't think there would be a line of suitors trying to outbid each other in a trade for him.

 

Homer on 540 has interviewed Buster Onley and Jason Stark, both said that they highly doubt Melvin would be able to get a near Tiexeria like deal for Prince because there wouldn't be a bunch of teams after him and because of how highly teams today value young pitching that can be cheap for multiple years. Mix in Prince having Boras as his agent and him being poor defensively, i really fear that if Doug eventually shops Fielder, the offers will be underwhelming.

[logan82]

So of all you guys saying the Brewers could contend next year, do you guys think these teams are playoff/world series potential for next year?

 

Baltimore

Pittsburgh

Arizona

Cleveland

Houston

Seattle

 

Those are the only 6 teams worse than the Brewers right now.

We played well below our talent level this year. What we are doing this year was almost worst case scenario. We have similar talent to the Reds and what they are doing is what our best case scenario was. We were right around 81 win talent. We can easily be competitive next year with a few trades but 2012 is a more realistic goal when Lawrie and some of our minor league pitchers are expected to contribute. Just swaping out Hoffman as the closer would have put us at 4 more wins and maybe 5. That would be 42-42 instead of 37-47. Right around .500 where we expected to be. We really are not that farr off of being a competitive team.

[Invader3K]

I really think sticking with Suppan and Hoffman at the start of the season really damaged the team irreparably for the season.

[brewmann04]

I think they should put almost eveyone on the block and see what type of offers we can get.

[joepepsi]

We played well below our talent level this year. What we are doing this year was almost worst case scenario. We have similar talent to the Reds and what they are doing is what our best case scenario was. We were right around 81 win talent. We can easily be competitive next year with a few trades but 2012 is a more realistic goal when Lawrie and some of our minor league pitchers are expected to contribute. Just swaping out Hoffman as the closer would have put us at 4 more wins and maybe 5. That would be 42-42 instead of 37-47. Right around .500 where we expected to be. We really are not that farr off of being a competitive team.

Agreed. Except for the 9 game losing streak in mid-May they've been a .500 team. Of course that's not uncommon for a lot of teams each year.

[sheethead]

In the last three games the Brewers have given opponents 11 unearned runs while scoring a total of three and costing our #1 pitcher for who knows how long. That is not competitive baseball. That is about as ugly of baseball that I can imagine. If we think this team has 80-82 win talent, but ends up with 68-70 wins, we may need to conclude the projection for this team's talent was off considerably.

[brewmann04]

I also belive the giants came in with a 2-10 record in there last dozen games and Houston was the worst hitting team in the NL comming in to play us. This team is a 500 ball club at best.