When is the time to start selling?

[strawbossisevil]

Yes and no. What Lee would lack on offense, he'd likely make up defensively. Lee is one of the best scooping 1B in the league, and while he is slowing down a bit, he can still pick it at 1B. Berkman is also a better fielder than Fielder, and I think he could still potentially put up a high 800s OPS year. Also, Fielder hasn't been all that great offensively to this point. He's still OPSing under 900. It may be a bit of a drop going from Fielder to Berkman/Lee, but quite possibly not as big as one might first think.

 

While I don't see Gamel putting up Hart like numbers, I think he could OPS in the mid 800s, with the OPS being much more heavily OBP oriented.

 

Finally, I think Cain can out perform Gomez's production from this season.

 

Next season we should also see some improvement out of Escobar from this season, and I think we'll see continued improvement from Lucroy as well. Plus, I think we'll see a better offensive season from Braun next year. Really, I think our offense would be just fine, quite likely upper half, and our defense should be a bit better at 1B, saving some of the errors that come from Fielder's subpar defense at 1B. You have to like our bullpen going into next season as well, especially if Hawkins comes back strong. Axford, Braddock, Loe, Hawkins, and Coffey is a pretty solid bullpen.

If we go into the season with a team that has the talent to win on average 85 games, I think that gives us a decent shot. An 85 win talent team, with a little luck, can quite easily find themselves making the playoffs.

[MJLiverock]

I completly agree with Bill Hall Allstar's post. The return on Fielder in the offseason isn't going to be any better and isn't going to make this team a playoff team. Logan was also very similar to my thinking in that if everything goes right and I mean every single thing with that team it could win 85 games- still not enough to make the playoffs. I still don't get why the Gia ts would trade Bumgarner for one playoff run with Fielder in the offseason instead now for 2 runs.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm going to have a good laugh when you guys see how bad the packages that are offered are this offseason. You can read my post in the transaction rumors. There really is just not much of a market for Fielder or Hart this offseason either, and especially not for rotation-ready pitching. I've ruled out a lot of teams.

 

The only logical thing I can think of is a Bumgarner package for Fielder.

 

For a one year rental of a slugger, when you want MLB ready players, you're going to get massively diminished returns. You're going to get:

 

1. A one year rental of a pitcher that is pretty good. Good luck trying to re-sign him.

2. An above average pitcher with something like 3 years, 35-40 million left.

Either of these would work for me, especially #1. Number 2 would be fine if, like me, you consider guys like Jonathan Sanchez average and Randy Wolf average to below average.

 

I'm still not sure what people wanted to trade Fielder for- A couple of A and AA pitchers with 'upside' who had been high draft picks? I'd rather just let him walk and take the draft choices that come if that's all you can get for him.

[Ennder]

Giants aren't likely to trade Bumgarner for 1 year of Fielder. I agree that the trade packages we get offered for Fielder are going to be extremely underwhelming and most likely we don't even trade him.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

There seems to be three schools of thought here:

 

1) Trade our Prince or Hart for rotation help for 2011. I just don't think that offer was out there. The availability of a Bumgarner type is probably not a valid assumption. Just like the availability of Grienke, Cain or Bucholz haven't been the last couple years.

 

The next two come down to what you think the teams chances are to compete in 2011.

2) Trade Prince or Hart for lower level prospects. This is basically throws the towel in on next year, but could set us up if/when the lower level pitching emerges.

3) Unless #1 changes and they can improve the current team, keep them around and see how the first half of next year goes. The can probably get a backend starter for Hart if they feel comfortable enough with Gamel out there. They have plenty of payroll room to add some salary next year. Maybe they have better luck at picking up some decent pitching during the offseason. The odds are probably stacked against them, but not so much the situation is hopeless. The team could compete.

 

My guess is they opt for #3. This is probably a .500 to slightly below team. One that's close enough if they just had one or two pieces to compete for a playoff spot. The offers for Prince/Hart are probably not that enticing now and won't be materially different during the offseason.

[jwill535]

I said this on the trade board, but for all of those banking on salary relief by trading Prince, dont bet on it. I can guarantee that any team that trades for Prince is going to demand that the Brewers pick up at least half of his salary. The more money the Brewers pick up, the better the deal.

[RockCoCougars]

I said this on the trade board, but for all of those banking on salary relief by trading Prince, dont bet on it. I can guarantee that any team that trades for Prince is going to demand that the Brewers pick up at least half of his salary. The more money the Brewers pick up, the better the deal.

Then no trade. I wouldn't eat a nickel of Fielder's salary. It was absolutely absurd for Houston to make the trades they have made the past few days. The ownership must be hard up for cash or something.

[logan82]

I said this on the trade board, but for all of those banking on salary relief by trading Prince, dont bet on it. I can guarantee that any team that trades for Prince is going to demand that the Brewers pick up at least half of his salary. The more money the Brewers pick up, the better the deal.

Then no trade. I wouldn't eat a nickel of Fielder's salary. It was absolutely absurd for Houston to make the trades they have made the past few days. The ownership must be hard up for cash or something.

They are still paying a lot of salary for the guys they traded.

[RockCoCougars]

Then no trade. I wouldn't eat a nickel of Fielder's salary. It was absolutely absurd for Houston to make the trades they have made the past few days. The ownership must be hard up for cash or something.

They are still paying a lot of salary for the guys they traded.

Exactly. It seemed like they were cutting their losses or something. I couldn't believe that they ate some of Oswalt's salary and then they ate a big chunk of Berkman's salary - to the Yankees, none the less. It doesn't make any sense, unless they are up against some cash flow issues in the next few years. If I'm a team GM, I'm not sending the Yankees any money along with a player on principal alone...... I suppose I'd have made an exception for Suppan though.

[Invader3K]

Prince should make around $15-18 million next season. Perfectly fair for the level of production he can expect to provide.

 

I am not very optimistic the market for him this off-season is going to be very good. There will be too many 1Bs on the market to really get a good return. I stand by my earlier prediction that Prince will still be a Brewers in 2011.

[LouisEly]

If you think other teams were offering us lackluster deals now, just wait until the offseason when they know we're going to be even more desperate to move these guys (and they'll only have the player under contract for 1 playoff run vs. 2 if they did the deal now which should hurt what we're offered as well).

 

I think you'll be surprised what happens. Many teams are looking to dump salary and if they can they aren't asking much in return, and the Brewers could easily clear >$40M from their payroll with Suppan and Hall off the books, Hoffman/Davis/Riske all but officially gone, and Bush/Gerut/Counsell/Coffey possibilities. The Brewers can take on salary, but not until next year, thus the wait until the offseason. For example, James Shields and Matt Garza of Tampa will be arby eligible and they may choose to move one or both and go with their younger/cheaper pitching prospects. If Burrell and Pena come off the books they can take on Fielder's salary and upgrade at 1B, not lose much if anything in pitching, and not take on salary.

 

In Florida Ricky Nolasco and Annibal Sanchez are arby eligible. If they want do dump salary they are in need of a 3B and Casey McGehee is cheap and under control for a few years. McGehee plus prospects could go to Florida for one of those two.

 

In Anaheim Abreu is getting long in the tooth and should probably move to DH, thus opening up a spot for Hart. And Morales is a question mark coming back from the broken leg. The Angels have a lot of money invested in pitching next year - Haren, Santana, Weaver is arby-eligible, Piniero, and Kazmir - that's $45M plus whatever raise Weaver gets in arby. Hart woud be a good fit there, possibly Fielder too, but the Angels don't want to give up any of those arms until the season is over (except Kazmir, who is on the DL). Hart might be a good fit for the Padres, but same with Chris Young - he's on the DL now. Some package centering around Hart for Young or Garland would do. But the Pads won't trade Garland in a pennant chase and can't trade Young because he's on the DL. Thus that deal would have to wait for the offseason.

 

And then there's the Mets. They have Francoeur in RF - Nieve would be a good return. And who knows what they will do. The White Sox may think that Quentin is better served as a DH than RF and the rest of their corner OF/DH rotation is Juan Pierre, Mark Kotsay, and Andruw Jones. They may want to move Buehrle's contract (even though 2012 vests if he's traded), but he would be a good #2 to hold them over for two years until the Brewers pitching prospects arrive.

 

These are just some examples of deals that can't be made now but could be made in the offseason that would provide ML or ML-ready pitching. And if Boras finds that the market for Fielder is pretty dry, they may be able to resign him which I would not mind at all. If the trade market for Fielder isn't there, then guess what? The free agent/long-term contract market for him isn't there either.

[reillymcshane]

I'm beginning to feel that the Brewers should admit they have a flawed team that needs revamping. We don't have the money to buy pitching, so we have to develop it or trade for it.

 

So here is what you do following this off season:

 

1. Trade Prince for as much good young pitching as possible. You move Gamel to 1B and hope his bat matures that he can play there. I think he would be more than adequate to play the position. Gamel should be ready in 2011 to prove if he's a future on this team.

 

2. Keep Hart. You don't have any one to play RF next year. Keep him to provide offense. If the team is out of contention in July, then trade him at the deadline (assuming he has value). Now, if you have a replacement for Hart this off season, sure, trade him now. But I don't think anyone is in our system that is going to take his place.

 

3. Move Brett Lawrie to RF if you think he can play the position. He has the speed and his bat should play there fine. Move him to AAA and he can take over for Hart in 2012.

 

4. Sign Rickie Weeks to an extension if he's willing to. Rickie has had his injuries, and he's pretty inconsistent in the field, but the guy is a beast when he plays and I think his best days are right ahead of him.

 

5. Avoid all the overpaid veteran relievers like Hawkins and so forth. Relievers are pretty inconsistent (not all of them, but many of them). I'd rather get young arms and pay them peanuts and live with their inconsistency than pay them several million dollars to live with it. This means probably letting Coffey go, and going with a bullpen of Axford, Loe, Braddock, Narveson (the guy is a loogy waiting to happen - make it happen now), Hawkins, maybe Rogers. If you can get Coffey and Riske at reasonable rates, great, but otherwise, forget it.

 

6. For starting pitching your stuck with Wolf as one guy to go with Gallardo. After that, it's Capuano getting a chance, and perhaps Bush if he comes back on a reasonable one year deal - but I doubt he'd do that. To fill the other slots I'd rather try some cheap AAA guys looking for a chance than recycle the Loopers and Suppans of the world. Of course, if a guy like Looper will play for cheap, great, but I'd rather take a flyer on someone with a future if possible.

 

7. Trade Manny Parra for someone else's head case. Find another pitcher stuck in developmental hell and swap them - the change of scenery might be what both they need.

 

8. Target any decent trade chips - Fielder and Parra - to bring back young pitching.

 

9. Make Lorenzo Cain the center fielder. Gomez is what he is - a great CF but a hack at the plate. It's unlikely he's going to develop any sense of discipline to make his bat playable.

 

I know these are rather vague at spots, but it's a general philosophy of shucking our old and expensive and giving the young guys the chance to shine. I think the way to win in this league is with pitching - and we are sorely lacking in that area - especially in the starting category.

 

We go cheap next year. If, for some reason, the team gels and in contention, you have plenty of room to add payroll if needed. If the team loses, which it likely would, you keep shedding payroll, then set up your team to succeed in 2012:

 

C - Lucroy

1B - Gamel

2B - Weeks

SS - Escobar

3B - McGehee

LF - Braun

CF - Cain

RF - Lawrie

 

SP - Gallardo, Wolf (let's hope we trade for some decent players!)

RP - Axford, Loe, Braddock, Rogers, Jeffries, Narveson, others.

[PrinceEatMeat]

C - Lucroy

1B - Gamel

2B - Weeks

SS - Escobar

3B - McGehee

LF - Braun

CF - Cain

RF - Lawrie

 

SP - Gallardo, Wolf (let's hope we trade for some decent players!)

RP - Axford, Loe, Braddock, Rogers, Jeffries, Narveson, others.

Only thing I'd change is keep Hart, put Lawrie at 3b, and trade McGehee.

[reillymcshane]

Only thing I'd change is keep Hart, put Lawrie at 3b, and trade McGehee.

PrinceEatMeat, i think you hit it on the head after today's signing of Hart ot an extension.

 

I'm not totally sold on McGehee long term, so Lawrie at 3B makes sense. McGehee's looks to be a solid hitter, mediocre defender. You can definitely do worse. But let him hold the fort for another year, then you can use as trade bait if he's worth anything.

[1992casey]

PrinceEatMeat, I edited your message above to pare back the quoted material. Please check out the quote guidelines.

[monty57]

RockCoCougars]

I said this on the trade board, but for all of those banking on salary relief by trading Prince, dont bet on it. I can guarantee that any team that trades for Prince is going to demand that the Brewers pick up at least half of his salary. The more money the Brewers pick up, the better the deal.

Then no trade. I wouldn't eat a nickel of Fielder's salary. It was absolutely absurd for Houston to make the trades they have made the past few days. The ownership must be hard up for cash or something.

I've tried to figure this out, and here's the best I came up with: Oswalt demanded a trade, and had a list of teams he'd accept a trade to, seriously hampering the Astros. That's a very important point that seems to have been forgotten. They found a deal where they got a decent pitcher in Happ and a highly rated 1B prospect in Wallace (after the subsequent Toronto deal which I'm sure was in place prior to the Phillies deal). Not a bad haul considering Oswalt demanded the trade.

 

Now, Berkman had also said he wanted to be traded (after Oswalt's comments). He is not hitting very well for a 1B (.800-ish OPS) and there is basically no way they were going to pay his $15MM option for 2011, so he was going to walk away for nothing after the season, and the Astros would have probably had to pay a buyout. Since they got Wallace, Berkman was unnecessary in Houston, so get what you can for him. I can't imagine his value was too high, as with his contract and option buyout, he could have had a negative value. They probably picked up some salary simply to end up with a couple of prospects (even if they weren't very good), so it didn't look like they gave him to the Yankees for nothing.

 

Lee also said he wanted to be traded, but his albatross contract isn't going anywhere (thank you Doug for not signing that deal).

 

Now, the Astros lost Oswalt and Berkman (who was gone next year anyway), and gained Happ and Wallace. They still have Lee and Pence in the order, and should have money to get a little better this offseason, as they freed up something like $31MM in Oswalt and Berkman to go along with expiring contracts for Kaz Matsui, Pedro Feliz, Mohler, etc. I don't expect them to be a good team next year, but I do see where they were coming from in the trades. It's too bad for them that Oswalt put them between a rock and a hard place, but they seem to have at least got something in the deal... I guess it just depends on how you rate Happ and Wallace. I see them as a #3-ish starter with 3+ years of control and a Top 20 overall prospect who should be a centerpiece of their offense for the next six years.

[LouisEly]

Great post Monty.

 

I'm wondering if baseball is starting to turn out like basketball the last couple of years where expiring contracts are suddenly valuable to clear salary off the books.