When is the time to start selling?

[logan82]

In June and July they have a .520 winning % which projects to 85 wins with their current roster.

 

Which is a little better than projected to start the season but would have fallen within normal variance.

 

Just a couple of moves (Cain over Gomez in CF, one starting pitcher acquired) and improvement by Escobar offensively and defensively and 90 wins next year is very possible.

 

Possible but not probable. Those improvements probably put us around an 86 win projection and that may be a little high. Just a guess that we would be in the 80-90 win range.

[bill hAll Star]

You guys are starting to get delusional.

[bill hAll Star]

To add to my point, that wonderful slightly above .500 record was beefed up against the Pirates, Nats, Mariners, and Astros.

 

Of course we're slightly better than the bottom feeders of the league. You'd hope a 90 million dollar payroll can beat 4 of the worst teams in baseball slightly above 50% of the time.

 

EDIT: 2 impressive home series vs. the Twins and Rangers when they were struggling was nice, if you want to go that far. But going barely over .500 when more than half of your schedule is non-impressive teams isn't very indicative of an entire season projection for the next year.

[Ennder]

But going barely over .500 when more than half of your schedule is non-impressive teams isn't very indicative of an entire season projection for the next year.

 

We play in the weakest division in baseball, half of our schedule is always going to be against non impressive teams.

 

As for selling, we have very little of value to sell unfortunately. Nobody is going to trade for Fielder when they can get Berkman or Dunn for less. Hart got hurt at the worst time possible or he probably would have been traded. Guys like Hoffman and Edmonds aren't bringing back a major league quality player. We aren't in a position where we want to trade the real youth of the team like Lucroy, Axford and Escobar. No contender wants Manny Parra or Chris Narveson at this point because they are just too erratic. Dave Bush could be traded but he isn't going to bring back much. I doubt we want to trade Gallardo since pitching is our problem.

 

That leaves our only real trading chip right now being Rickie Weeks and I get the feeling they want to extend him, not trade him. Wolf would have been an option if he pitched anything like his career or previous 3 season peripherals but he has taken a major step back on the year. Edit : Oops I missed one. McGehee probably has some trade value too, not sure what could be expected in return for him though since it is hard to really know what kind of player he is yet.

 

I'll take it a step further and say we are going to really struggle to trade Fielder this offseason, I'd put the odds at 50/50 tops. It has to be a team that thinks they can are contenders and Fielder is the final piece that can put them over the top and probably a team that thinks they can sign him long term after trading for him. The list of teams that are viable for that is really small.

[homer]

Guys like Hoffman and Edmonds aren't bringing back a major league quality player.

Who cares? Trade them for A ball prospects. Wayne Franklin was traded for Carlos Villanueva.

[PeaveyFury]

You guys are starting to get delusional.

 

Stuff like this isn't cool here.

[Mr QL]

Teams just don't want our players, that's what it boils down too. I don't think we're turning down any great offers because we want to "go for it".

[wibadgers23]

I don't think it's that teams don't want our players. I think they're trying to give up crap for our players. That being said, I hope something happens. Even if it's just Edmonds or Counsell being traded for a lower level prospect. Trading Edmonds will allow Cain to at least platoon with Gomez for the remainder of the season.

[Mr QL]

I don't think it's that teams don't want our players. I think they're trying to give up crap for our players. That being said, I hope something happens. Even if it's just Edmonds or Counsell being traded for a lower level prospect. Trading Edmonds will allow Cain to at least platoon with Gomez for the remainder of the season.

Well yea, they'd probably love to have them if they didn't have to give up any valuable prospects or pay them. Edmonds and Counsell won't bring any value, if you can move them fine but I'm not going to lose any sleep that we didn't unload them.

[Invader3K]

Honestly I can't articulate my real feelings without breaking forums rules. So I'll just say, "screw this team". My biggest fear was that approaching this deadline, the team would be hovering around .500 and make a couple middling moves. The "fake contention" issue I have outlined in the past. Instead, they're clearly out of contention and do nothing. No real attempt by Melvin evident either. I have no real hope for the off-season or next year. I consider myself a die-hard Brewers fan, but right now I don't see anything to look forward to whatsoever.

 

Extremely disheartened right now.

[RockCoCougars]

People need to calm down. It was a buyer's market out there. Most teams were trying to dump salary (and still having to eat some of it), and the vast majority of 'prospects' that changed hands were second rate. I'm hoping that the Giants miss the playoffs because of anemic offense again this year. Maybe in December, they will actually offer up some value for Prince.

[TooLiveBrew]

It was a buyer's market out there.

 

I agree wholeheartedly with this. If Melvin was getting offers on a par with most of the completed deals around the league, then I'm really glad he didn't deal Hart &/or Fielder. The spare parts guys like Edmonds, Counsell, etc. can most likely be moved in waiver deals.

[Ennder]

Honestly I can't articulate my real feelings without breaking forums rules. So I'll just say, "screw this team". My biggest fear was that approaching this deadline, the team would be hovering around .500 and make a couple middling moves. The "fake contention" issue I have outlined in the past. Instead, they're clearly out of contention and do nothing. No real attempt by Melvin evident either. I have no real hope for the off-season or next year. I consider myself a die-hard Brewers fan, but right now I don't see anything to look forward to whatsoever. Extremely disheartened right now.

 

I have to say I pretty much disagree with this 100%. The only move that would make any kind of sense would be moving Weeks considering Hart got hurt and lost all his value. This seems like a terrible time to blow up the team though, making trades just to trade guys isn't how we are going to compete next year. There have been almost no impact players traded this past week, it has been a bunch of garbage for salary dumps. Trades like these wouldn't help the team in any way.

[danzig6767]

I really wanted the Brewers to be sellers, but if the only trade offers out there are hey we'll bend you over the sink and you have to thank us afterward, we may as well have just stood pat. I would though like to see Gomez sent down for Cain.

[carniesandrubes]

If you think other teams were offering us lackluster deals now, just wait until the offseason when they know we're going to be even more desperate to move these guys (and they'll only have the player under contract for 1 playoff run vs. 2 if they did the deal now which should hurt what we're offered as well).

[jwill535]

I really hope the Brewers would do what every other team out of contention tends to do and that is bring up the young guys and let them play. Other then with Fielder, Weeks, JJ, they tend to keep playing the veterans that are not part of the future and thus retarding the growth of the young guys or leaving you with no way of knowing if these young guys can play.

[bill hAll Star]

Straight from the horse's mouth here:

 

Ash noted that many trades involved teams shedding salaries and taking

minor-league prospects in return. He said the Brewers weren't interested

in doing those kinds of deals.,

 

"We're more interested in what can impact the club now," he said. "That wasn't available to us."

If I'm Mark A, I worry about this guy running my franchise completely into the ground. I worry about 10-15k crowds regularly in the upcoming years with how bad we're going to make ourselves.

 

If Melvin goes out strictly looking for this type of trade, he's going to lose. He wants to "win now" to keep his job.

 

EDIT: By "win now" I mean mostly in 2011. Even I will give him the benefit of the doubt for 2010, though I think he thought we had a chance up until a few nights ago.

[strawbossisevil]

This is no different than what has been rumored all along. They want pitching that is major league ready or near major league ready if they are going to be inclined to move two of our top offensive players. They don't want to trade Fielder and Hart for someone who won't contribute to the team's success until 2 or 3 years from now. They want guys that they can potentially slot into the 2011 rotation.

 

With pitching, and the high injury risk of prospect pitchers, that seems to make quite a bit of sense. If you get a guy who is ready for the majors, you know that you'll at least get some return for the trade at the ML level. However, if you were to trade Fielder or Hart for a low level guy, and he gets hurt in the next two to three seasons, that would be a disaster for our organization. The further away a prospect pitcher is, the greater risk that the pitcher will flame out prior to making it to the Majors. So, if we are going to trade a stud, we want more or less of a "sure thing" in return. From the sound of things, most organizations wanted to offer us lower level guys who were years away and that was just too great a risk for our front office to take. Here's to hoping the market is a bit better in the offseason. It might be, as teams in contention typically don't move ML ready pitching when they are in the thick of a playoff chase, but they would probably be more willing to do so in the offseason when they have greater roster flexibility due to free agency.

 

Trading Fielder and Hart is not a "win now" kind of move. It's a move focused on next season and the future. And it would seem pretty clear to me that that is what Ash is referring to. I'm fairly certain he and Melvin understand that the likelihood of our making the playoffs this season is remote at best, and that trading Fielder or Hart at this point isn't likely to improve those chances.

 

But if you want to continue to spin any quote that comes out of the FO in order to try to make them look incompetent, go ahead. I personally don't find your viewpoint all that compelling.

[bill hAll Star]

I'm going to have a good laugh when you guys see how bad the packages that are offered are this offseason. You can read my post in the transaction rumors. There really is just not much of a market for Fielder or Hart this offseason either, and especially not for rotation-ready pitching. I've ruled out a lot of teams.

 

The only logical thing I can think of is a Bumgarner package for Fielder.

 

For a one year rental of a slugger, when you want MLB ready players, you're going to get massively diminished returns. You're going to get:

 

1. A one year rental of a pitcher that is pretty good. Good luck trying to re-sign him.

2. An above average pitcher with something like 3 years, 35-40 million left.

3. Some very low ceiling pitchers with 3-4 cheap years left.

 

That's it. I can guarantee you that you aren't going to get a Greinke-esque, Tommy Hansen-esque guy in return. You're not. Not for a one year rental especially.

 

Look, we're on pace for 72-74 wins if we lose tonight. Adding a non-ace in a Fielder package or some young guys with a ceiling of a 3/4 and taking Fielder and/or Hart out of the lineup isn't going to get us +20 wins, so let's stop being so concerned about 2011. The problem is, Doug Melvin is concerned about this year because his job resides on it. That is why I laughed at Ash's comments.

 

On the other hand, you can get some stud prospects that are 2-3 years down the road from being something. Had we traded Fielder for some of these guys in the past week, we'd get guys that are at that point now, not in December...inching towards helping us.

 

Doug Melvin knocked some draft picks out of the park and made a great trade for CC in going to get us a playoff opportunity, but let's be honest, we weren't even THAT good of a team, we annihilated the Reds/Astros/Pirates a lot and were massively overmatched by the Phillies. Since then, it has been a free fall to being a bottom 4 team in the NL, maybe bottom 5. Why does everybody keep giving Melvin the benefit of the doubt?

 

You guys honestly think there is going to be a solid package out there of pitching for a one year rental of Fielder? And if so, it isn't going to be a costly solution and will be signed for multiple years? (no way in hell we contend in 2011 in my opinion).

 

You guys are a little far off on what you think this team can do with another fringe all-star pitcher. Right now, we're on par with the Royals and Indians. We're only 4 games up in the standings on THOSE teams. We are closer to the Royals and Indians than we are the Reds and Cards.

 

 

 

 

Please, somebody tell me what sort of decent package is going to be offered for Prince in the offseason, I'd be thrilled to hear it.

 

Also, go back through the history books and find when a rental slugger (that is unsignable) brought back a valuable long term pitcher or two that is already established the majors or just about to be called up? I'm sure somebody can find it but I would guess there are at least 10x more examples of "guys 2-3 years away from helping" turning into aces, under team control, for 6 years instead of going for a conglomerate of not good players.

 

 

EDIT: Here is my final thing on why nobody is going to offer much for Fielder.

 

Either A: You're a team like the Red Sox or Yankees. Mind you, most of these teams are already set at DH/1B, but wouldn't you rather just keep your top pitching prospects that are high AA or AAA guys ready to roll and put in a bid for Prince going into 2012?

 

B: You're a mid-level franchise looking for a bat. I dunno, Atlanta or something? Baltimore? Both huge cities but not in the Yankees/Sox stratosphere. Anyways, is it financially sound to trade away a guy ready for the majors in advanced AA level that you're going to have under team control for 6 years for a 1 year slugger rental? I think this is a concession one of those teams may make if they are in it at the trade deadline(for lesser prospects), but I'm not so sure it is something a team does before the year.

[Baldkin]

Doug Melvin knocked some draft picks out of the park and made a great trade for CC in going to get us a playoff opportunity, but let's be honest, we weren't even THAT good of a team, we annihilated the Reds/Astros/Pirates a lot and were massively overmatched by the Phillies. Since then, it has been a free fall to being a bottom 4 team in the NL, maybe bottom 5. Why does everybody keep giving Melvin the benefit of the doubt?

Alright. I can agree with most of your post except for this.

1) That team won 90 games. Their #2 starter threw 24 innings.

2) Their #1 starter missed the playoffs and only threw 5 innings the last 22 days of the season.

3) Massively outclassed by the Phillies? If Mike Cameron's glove is 2" longer, the Brewers win the series.

 

As for why I personally keep giving Melvin the benefit of the doubt?

1) Not one person has ever named a replacement who could do better saddled with what Melvin has been saddled with. I mean, we could've gotten Dayton Moore. Ask any Royals fan how he's working out.

2) Melvin's first set of draft picks are just now hitting their final years of arbitration. Had the Brewers been in a more ideal situation, all of them would be delayed by another year, but Prince, Hardy, Hart and Weeks all had to be rushed to MLB to give the fans a taste, and to fill the MLB roster, because it was, quite frankly, full of crap.

3) My expectations for a bottom third payroll team are not to be in the top 15% of the league every single season. They won 80 games last year. Even if you don't remember it, it still happened. 7 teams in the NL finished behind them last year. My expectations? That they put together the best team they can for the money, and in years when they feel they can compete, they can make a deal, they can wheel and deal for someone, they go for it, either before or during the season.

[trwi7]

3) My expectations for a bottom third payroll team are not to be in the top 15% of the league every single season.

They haven't been a bottom third payroll team since 2006.

[logan82]

The only move that would make any kind of sense would be moving Weeks considering Hart got hurt and lost all his value.

 

Even trading Weeks would be a questionable move since he could possibly be signed to a long term contract for a reasonable price.

[1992casey]

I'm going to have a good laugh when you guys see how bad the packages that are offered are this offseason.

 

That statement falls into the condescension category and simply isn't appropriate.

[strawbossisevil]

I'm going to have a good laugh when you guys see how bad the packages that are offered are this offseason.

You honestly can't know whether the Brewers could/would get any more in the current "buyer's market" trade deadline then they will at season's end or at the next deadline. If they don't get offered any good prospects at any point, then you take the draft picks. Although, I could see a Fielder/Bumgarner type move being possible with other prospects being thrown in the mix on both sides to match team needs. Also if Hart keeps it up, I could see getting a #2/3 guy from a team like the Padres or Braves who are desperate for some offense. Hart plus a C rated prospect for a guy like Minor from the Braves would be another one I could see going down in the offseason.

Then, I'd suggest the Brewers get Derrick Lee or Lance Berkman on a one or two year deal to fill in 1st base. Stick Gamel in Right (have him work on this in the Arizona Fall League). And I think that we would be in good shape.

This Rotation would have some solid potential:

Gallardo

Bumgarner

Wolf

Minor

Parra

Lineup:

Weeks (gets an extension)

Gamel

Braun

Berkman/Lee

McGehee

Cain

LuCroy

Escobar

Any guesses as to how many games a team like that would win? If everything goes right, I could see them competing for a wildcard spot.

[logan82]

Any guesses as to how many games a team like that would win? If everything goes right, I could see them competing for a wildcard spot.

Low 80's probably maybe mid 80's? If everything went right we could have been a playoff team this year. I like Gamel and Cain but Gamel/Cain/one of Berkman/Lee is probably a net loss from the production out of Hart/Fielder/Gomez this year.