When is the time to start selling?

[adambr2]

Sooner or later, this team needs to accept that they are sellers, not buyers. The rotation improving has been nice, and the bats have been fairly consistent, but it's time to just concede that this team just is not good enough to make a legitimate run. They're 8 under .500 where they've been hanging out for a long time now. They've got 2 teams in the division that are just head and shoulders better. And now with Gallardo's status uncertain, I have to think that's the final nail in the coffin for trying to make a run in 2010. They didn't help themselves gain ground when Houston and Seattle were in town, and they didn't do enough in St. Louis other than just continuing to try to tread water. The pitching is still poor, and the defense is very poor. There's not a ton of help on the way -- guys like Doug Davis, LaTroy Hawkins, and Jody Gerut coming off the DL are not going to make an ounce of difference to turning things around.

 

However, there are a couple valuable trading pieces that could really help us reload and set us up for success. Hart and Prince are the most obvious by far, but it would be nice to add in Bush or better yet, Wolf, to one of them. McGehee, even Axford, or Loe, have to all be considered candidates. Does Inglett have any value? I won't propose any specifics here which would probably belong in the trade proposals thread, but just pointing out that we could get ourselves some significant help for the farm system with a few good moves, and be able to set ourselves up for success in the future.

[trwi7]

Now.

[Ennder]

I think they are good enough to make a legitimate run, I just think they are too far in the hole to make one. At this point they have to be like a 95+ win team to make any sort of run given the hole they are in.

 

But yeah if Gallardo is down for any length of time they might as well start selling anyone who isn't a big part of 2011/2012.

[nate82]

The Brewers are still buyers even if they trade Fielder or Hart.

[adambr2]

To put things in perspective for the Brewers, the current wild card leader in the NL is on pace for 90 wins exactly. Assuming that pace holds up, which is about right, the Brewers would need to go 26 games over .500 the rest of the season to even tie for the wild card, an overall record of 53-27 the rest of the way, which is a .662 winning percentage. The Yankees, who own the best record in baseball, have a .617 winning percentage.

 

Mark and Doug need to stay away from the fantasy that this team is capable of a 2nd half run better than any team in baseball has performed so far. It's not realistic and it's detrimental to the future of this team. I know it's never fun to call any season lost but they need to look at a bigger picture than just the rest of attendance for 2010.

[Invader3K]

The Brewers are still buyers even if they trade Fielder or Hart.

Lets not turn this thread into a semantics argument too.

 

Yeah, I'd say if Gallardo is gone for any decent amount of time (like more than one missed start), that pretty much puts the final nail in the coffin for this season. Hopefully Melvin is already starting to put some feelers out there, if the rumors regarding Coffey and Villanueva are true.

[paul253]

Knowing Melvin he'll think he can sign one or two average veteran pitchers in the off season and expect to compete next year. He's not going to trade Fielder. He'll take draft picks for him. And he won't trade Hart either. He'll trade for a reliever and a backup infielder. Mark my words.

[Invader3K]

He'll trade for a reliever and a backup infielder. Mark my words.

Are you basing this on anything other than last season?

[jackalope02ca]

If Gallardo is gone for up to 2 months as is being speculated if it is an oblique strain I'd say right now. Any pending free agent and one or two relief pitchers should be on the move shortly.

[nate82]

Fielder is not going to be traded I don't see many teams that match up with the Brewers who are willing to go ahead and make that trade. The Rays don't have the payroll to make the trade but have all the talent available to do a trade like that. The Yankees don't really need Fielder and don't really have the pitching prospects the Brewers are looking for. The Mariners have the payroll room but do they really want Fielder? The Rangers don't have the payroll flexibility to take on Prince but they do have the prospects to trade for Prince. That leaves the Red Sox and the White Sox as possibilities. I don't see the Red Sox giving up what would be needed to land Prince and I don't see the White Sox really having the right prospects to land Prince.

 

So I really don't see Prince being traded this deadline at all unless Melvin gets real creative and another team like the Mariners plays along with the deal. Something like Prince, Hart, and Salome (though his mental problems may hinder his trade value) to the Mariners for Lee and Pineda then the Brewers send Lee to the Rangers for Perez and Reed. If the Rangers are not able to add on payroll Melvin should just pay all of Lee's remaining salary for this year and I am not sure if that would be possible though. The only way I see the Mariners doing this is if they would be able to sign Prince to an extension which I am not sure Boras would be OK with.

 

Other than Melvin getting real creative with a trade and another team going along with it I don't see Fielder being traded. I can see Hart, Villanueva, Coffey, Bush, or a long shot here Weeks being traded. If Lawrie continues to produce in AA I could see the Brewers seeing Weeks being a luxury and trading him for pitching. I don't see Weeks bringing a lot back in return though since there really isn't much of a market for 2B right now same predicament that Melvin is in with Fielder right now. Hart, Villanueva, and Coffey have more value right now in the trade market than Fielder does. Right now you have the Red Sox, Padres, Yankees, and the Tigers in need of some kind of OF help. Then you have nearly every single playoff team that would need some kind of bullpen help and then maybe you can get lucky and find a team who may need a #5 starter like Bush (Cardinals).

 

Not going to get much in return for Villanueva, Coffey, or Bush though.

[RU Rah Rah]

Is there a chance to make a run at the WC? Sure, in theory. And everyone can point to recent examples of teams coming out of the nowhere in the second half (the Rockies a couple of years ago) to support the idea that it's possible. But those are the exceptions that seem to prove the rule. 9 games out the WC on July 4 -- with all but 4 teams NL in basically the same situation, or better -- means that making the playoffs is basically a fantasy, at this point. adambr2 put it in perspective earlier in the thread -- there ain't no way this team is going to play .662 baseball the rest of the way. (That isn't to say that they will be completely horrible, either.)

 

I wouldn't advocate a complete fire sale, and I don't think Mark A. would allow it anyway. However, with Gallardo going down, it's time to think prudently about the team's medium-range interests -- building toward a more competitive roster in '11 and '12.

[adambr2]

I doubt that both Fielder and Hart will be gone by the AS break, but I'll be pretty disappointed if at least one of them isn't.

 

I think there's a little better market for Hart right now than Fielder and I think that has a more realistic chance of happening. Lower price tag, and a little bit higher demand for outfielders right now, whereas the 1B market is a little more saturated.

 

I said before the season that Melvin should have traded Prince last offseason and I still strongly maintain that. I think he missed the boat entirely now and believe it's going to result in Melvin and a potential trading partner being way too far apart for a deal to get done and eventually result in us losing him for picks.

 

Melvin is going to have to either do that, or take a disappointing return for Fielder now. Failing to even test the market on Fielder this last offseason really eroded all remaining confidence that I had in Melvin.

[Baldkin]

Failing to even test the market on Fielder this last offseason really eroded all remaining confidence that I had in Melvin.

How do you know this? I severely doubt the DM didn't even listen to offers for anyone on the roster.

[adambr2]

Failing to even test the market on Fielder this last offseason really eroded all remaining confidence that I had in Melvin.

How do you know this? I severely doubt the DM didn't even listen to offers for anyone on the roster.

Well, he came out himself and said that they would not be listening to any offers for Fielder in the offseason.

 

Now, if you want to speculate that he was lying, that's fine, but I don't think it would have been a very wise PR move on Melvin's part to announce to his entire fanbase and season ticket holders that he was not going to listen to trade offers for their most popular player, then PROVE he's lying by doing so anyway.

 

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

I am confident that Fielder will eventually be traded. It just won't be this season. He will make the deal in the off-season. I hope we don't sell off too much this season. I don't know how the books look for the Brewers but with Hall, Suppan, and probably Fielder coming off of the books we will have some flexibility. We should be able to afford Hart and Weeks next year. I would like to keep Hart just because we don't have a lot of power hitting corner outfielders in the system.

[trwi7]

I can't imagine Melvin seriously considered entertaining Fielder offers this offseason. If he did, he wouldn't have signed Wolf and Hawkins.

[sveumrules]

The only number that the front office truly cared about this season was 3,000,000.

As such, no matter the hypothetical return, Prince was not going to be traded this past offseason.

[logan82]

I think buyers and sellers isn't really how we should define things. I think it is more discussing playing for this year or next year and beyond. We could add players that would be technically buying but making us better for next year. I would like to see the front office start making moves for next year. Of course I have felt that way for at least a month now.

 

I never thought we were much better than a .500 team let alone a realistic playoff contender. If we had gotten off to a good start, I think we could have slid into the playoffs playing .500 or slightly better ball. The bad start sunk us and I hope they make moves for the future.

[owbc]

I agree that we have about a 2% chance at the playoffs, but that doesn't mean that we should sell. This seems like a really bad year to be a seller. Most years, there are still about 20-23 teams in contention at this time, but this year there are far less. Several teams with good talent are completely out of it, including the Mariners, Cubs, Marlins, and Blue Jays. Even the Phillies are treading water. Furthermore, two of the obvious "buy" teams, the LA Dodgers and Texas, can not buy due to ownership issues. Of course there are still a few candidates, but teams value their prospects more than 5 years ago.

 

Should Melvin shop around? Of course, and I'm sure he already is, but I doubt he's going to find a blockbuster. Most likely we'll just play out the year with the current team.

[paul253]

Are you basing this on anything other than last season?

No it's just based solely on my frustration with how he handles trades.

 

They are not even negotiating with Fielder now. There is probably a 95% chance they don't make the playoffs, and any in-house pitching candidates that could have any impact are still probably a year away (thinking specifically of Rivas and Josh Butler). There is zero reason to keep him. Zero. I hope they don't keep Hart because I think they could get a good return for him as well, but I can at least understand why they would. He's signable and may have actually turned the corner offensively. Fielder is not signable. If you trade him this year a team like Tampa could turn around and trade him again in the offseason and wouldn't have to pay more than probably $5 million or so of his salary for this year. If you trade him next season the team would have to pay his full salary, which will probably be around $12 million, and they risk losing him for nothing.

 

I agree with sveumrules. I think that this is about keeping the fans happy and not about improving the team in the long run.

[logan82]

I agree that we have about a 2% chance at the playoffs, but that doesn't mean that we should sell. This seems like a really bad year to be a seller.

 

Of course you don't trade players just to trade players. If you are getting crap in return you are better off doing nothing. Nobody is saying they should trade just to trade. Of course for some players, something would be better than nothing. Bush, Edmonds, Gerut(once off the DL), and Hoffman are guys who have about a 0% chance of returning and are not likely to be Type A or B players(even if they were we wouldn't want to offer). Counsell may be added to that group as well. He might or might not be back next year. There are some others with little service time left that we wouldn't have to get much back to call it a fair trade.

[Ennder]

The only number that the front office truly cared about this season was 3,000,000.

As such, no matter the hypothetical return, Prince was not going to be traded this past offseason.

There was also absolutely no reason to trade him either. Not like we had some other 1B blocked and there weren't a lot of teams looking for a 1B. Selling him after this year makes a little sense at least, selling him last offseason is making a move just to make a move.

[uwisfan]

I would like to keep Hart just because we don't have a lot of power hitting corner outfielders in the system.

First off, this team won't lack power even without Prince & Hart. Where do they stand in HRs this year or for the last several years? We also still need opening for Gamel and Lawrie, both who have good pop in their bats, and one of those two are going to end up in RF. I would not be surprised if both become starters somewhere at the MLB level by the end of next season. One will likely take over for Prince and the other will replace either Weeks or Hart.

 

The other option would be to ride out all of next year with the 3 of them, looking for a big playoff push to end the year. If they are well short, they can trade at them at the deadline. If they want to make a playoff run, they can keep all of them, and ride out next year. Lawrie and Gamel finish the season as MLB backups, then take over the following year after they let 2 of the 3 walk. In that scenario, the Brewers have a minimum of a Type A free agent in Prince, a type B in Weeks, and Hart could even straddle the line of A/B, given he will be judged on this year and the next.

[DonMoney4Mgr]

It seems out of character for this team to ever go into selling mode under current management. I thought they should of last year, this year even more so. I don't keep up enough to suggest who we should get in return for certain players, but I believe DM has an opportunity to sell high on some players that they won't resign. For example, Hart may bring in 7-8 M in arbitration next year and then beyond that look for money that's out of the Brewers price range.

 

Somehow, someway I would like to see Melvin break out his mold and do whatever it takes to put together a young, high ceiling rotation. Easier said than done, I know. But at least it appears they are in a position to acquire some of the before-mentioned prospects if they are indeed out there.

[GB12]

How many games out would we have to be for you to not want to be sellers? Not necessarily to be buyers, but just not sellers. Obviously we're quite a ways back so it's unlikely for us to get there, but hypothetically what's that number for you?