Milwaukee Bucks 2010/2011

[Dmiles23]

I'll preface this post by saying that I'm a HUGE Derrick Williams. I've been hoping he would somehow wind up with the Bucks since early December. But I would LOVE this trade. I agree with trwi... this team needs to rebuild. And it doesn't really bother me that this is a weak draft. We need to start someplace.

 

If we make this trade, and start rebuilding this year, it's not just setting us up for this draft. If a couple superstar type players were coming out this year, do you really think the T-Wolves would be considering trading their pick? The only way the Bucks are going to get a superstar player is to suck and get a top pick. So next year at this time... we could be coming into the draft with a 10-16 draft choice, stuck in mediocrity. OR we could start rebuilding, possibly have a top 5 pick, and already have a Williams/Kanter in the fold.

 

I've been wondering for a while if a Bogut trade was really a possibility. Every promotion or publication they put out features Jennings. In the past they have had a wide variety of players... so in my mind that means Jennings is the only player sure to be around next year. But that's just how my mind works.

[trwi7]

You guys do realize trading Bogut likely means a rebuild which likely means high lotto picks for at least two years, right? It's not like this deal would be "Oh, let's trade Bogut and #10 for #2 and then go out and sign Samuel Dalembert to take Bogut's place and try to make the playoffs."

[RockCoCougars]

I'm not a big fan of rebuilding from scratch. I don't want to relive the dark days of 1992 with Kenny Norman and the 'May Day' connection. The only reason that the Bucks were able to rebuild back then is that they made a very astute pick with Baker (who they dumped just in time and turned into Cassell and Tim Thomas), got lucky and won the lottery for Big Dog and then picked high in perhaps the best draft class in NBA history in '96 to get Ray Allen. Even with all this good fortune they only advanced in the playoffs once before tearing everything apart. The point being, you have to be very lucky to rebuild in the medium term, or you're going to be bad for a long time. I don't think the Bucks can afford that now.

 

Bogut is a nice piece to build around, so I don't see why you would move him for an unproven commodity. Most importantly, he actually seems to like Milwaukee- hopefully, they learned from the Ray Allen debacle. NBAers who are willing to play in Milwaukee are few and far between. Bogut is only 26, and generally centers develop late. I wouldn't have a problem moving anyone else on the team, but I'm hanging on to Bogut. I'm just hoping that they can get someone who can score the basketball.

[trwi7]

Yes, only one of the best up and coming teams in the NBA built their team from scratch. I certainly don't want the Bucks to do that.

[Baldkin]

The only picks of those that were considered 'safe' were Bogut and Ford. The rest were reaches. All except likely Jennings and perhaps Sanders turned out to be flops.

My point was that the picks may have been bad but *ALL* the picks were bad after the Bucks selections, and the players taken after the Bucks picked weren't special as well.

 

Honestly, if I were an NBA GM, I'd just trade down, every year I didn't have a top-5 pick. More picks = more chances for a solid role player for cheap (Like Prince Luc). Elite talent really only comes from the top 5.

[Dmiles23]

Bogut is only 26, and generally centers develop late. I wouldn't have a problem moving anyone else on the team, but I'm hanging on to Bogut. I'm just hoping that they can get someone who can score the basketball.

First off... Bogut may be only 26 years old, but he has already shown that he has back issues that have cost him significant time. The chances of those getting better with age are slim. And now with his elbow problems, who knows if he's ever going to be the same player he was even 2 seasons ago.

And who else on the Bucks has value? The Bucks can't say "Hey... I'll give you Maggette and #10 for #2. Deal?" The Bucks pretty much have 2 players who could acquire them a high pick, Bogut and possibly Jennings. I'm not the biggest Jennings fan, but he's still young and doesn't have the injury problems Bogut has. And I believe he has dedicated himself to Milwaukee, as I believe he's staying in Milwaukee this summer.

 

I think Bogut plus #10 is too much to move up to #2. But I think Bogut for #2 would be a good deal. Or even Bogut and #10 for #2 plus a couple younger players like Wes Johnson.

I guess I just don't see the reason the Bucks should stand pat this year. Miami, Chicago, Boston, Orlando, New York, and Atlanta are all playoff locks, and head and shoulders better than the Bucks. So the Bucks are battling for the 7th and 8th seed with Philly, Indiana, Charlotte, and NJ so we can get the crap kicked out of us by Chicago, Miami, or Boston in the first round. And then we're stuck with a pick from 10-16 and have no chance to improve again next year. It just seems to be this continuous cycle with the Bucks. If we were in the West, the Bucks would clearly be the 3rd worst team and have no shot at the Playoffs.

[RockCoCougars]

"My point was that the picks may have been bad but *ALL* the picks were bad after the Bucks selections, and the players taken after the Bucks picked weren't special as well. "

 

Agreed. To be honest, how many drafts have had more than a few impact players in the past 10 years? Not more than a few. I would bet that in the majority of drafts over the past decade, you could choose the best 11 players (even in hindsight) and you would not have a championship caliber team- '03 and '07 are the only two that I can think of that you would.

 

 

Honestly, if I were an NBA GM, I'd just trade down, every year I didn't have a top-5 pick. More picks = more chances for a solid role player for cheap (Like Prince Luc). Elite talent really only comes from the top 5.

 

I agree with you here as well. Especially this year. I'm actually more enamored with guys toward the end of the first round than the guys who may fall to the Bucks.

 

Yes, only one of the best up and coming teams in the NBA built their team from scratch. I certainly don't want the Bucks to do that.

 

I assume that you're talking about OKC. That is basically the blueprint of the only way the Bucks can rebuild from scratch. Draft well and have lots of luck. In my opinion a guy like Durant comes along once every 5 years or so. Without him, they wouldn't be very good. They were lucky to move up in the lottery (leapfrogging the Bucks) and fortunate that Portland took Oden ahead of him.

 

My point is two fold- first, even if you are truly bad, you are not guaranteed to get a top pick. Secondly, even if you do, the odds are against you getting an impact player. The Bucks have had four #1 overall. Obviously Kareem was a franchise player, but I think they've gotten one all star appearance out of the other three combined. Basically, the only way the Bucks can completely rebuild is the draft. To be successful, with this you have to be horrible on the court, great at scouting, and lucky. Not only that, but you have to draft guys who will be willing to stay in Milwaukee if they turn in to stars. What are the odds? You could trade all your players for picks and have tons of salary space, but what worthy free agent will come to Milwaukee?

[trwi7]

The Thunder would still be good without Durant, they wouldn't be great but they would be good and better than the Bucks are.

 

As far as a player like Durant coming once every 5 years.

 

2009 - Blake Griffin

2008 - Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook, Kevin Love

2007 - Kevin Durant obviously

2006 - LaMarcus Aldridge and Brandon Roy

2005 - Chris Paul and Deron Williams

2004 - Dwight Howard

2003 - LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony

2002 - Yao Ming

2001 - Pau Gasol

 

The 2000 draft was awful but there are great players in almost every single draft. You just have to have good scouting and draft high enough to get that player.

[patrickgpe]

to me bogut is the only untouchable. i'd trade jennings and the 10th for the 2nd and 20th, but you need to keep bogut and build around him, especially after he signed the extension to commit to here.

[trwi7]

Bogut just isn't worth building around. The Durants the Roses the Pauls the Wades the LeBrons. Those are players worth building around, Bogut is a solid contributor, a third wheel on a championship team not a go to option.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Agreed, Bogut is a very good player when healthy, but he's never gonna be the type of player to build a team around. He needs a few great players around him, which the Bucks will never be able to get. The only way to get better is to rebuild. This specific trade may not do it, but trading Bogut really won't matter in the long run. A rebuild is the only way to become a great team at this point.

[patrickgpe]

do you guys that want bogut traded know how few good centers there are in the league, while he got hurt the last 2 years he is still atleast in the top 10 in the league it is so much easier to get a pg. there isn't a center in the draft that the bucks could draft at #2 and contribute in 2011-12.

[PrinceEatMeat]

do you guys that want bogut traded know how few good centers there are in the league, while he got hurt the last 2 years he is still atleast in the top 10 in the league it is so much easier to get a pg. there isn't a center in the draft that the bucks could draft at #2 and contribute in 2011-12.

That isn't the point. Trading Bogut is the sign of a rebuild. We aren't trying to win in 11-12 if we do that. We want to lose and get a high lotto pick. The point is that the Bucks will never win anything with Bogut being the best player on the team. The only possible way to improve enough to get anywhere is a rebuild. How many teams in this league have won anything with a good center and nothing else? Not many. The Bucks need at least two other very good players on the roster with Bogut to get anywhere. That isn't going to happen. There's no way with the current assets they have to do that. The only way to improve is to trade Bogut, rebuild with whoever we get with the #2 pick or whatever else we trade him for and lotto picks in future years, and go from there. The point is that this team will never win anything with Bogut as the cornerstone. Bogut is a great player no doubt, but he's not a star and not a franchise player. If we want to try to tank with Bogut on the roster, then sure that might work, but that doesn't seem to be even close to the goal even though it should be. I can't say I would approve of the current deal being discussed, but I do approve of the idea of trading Bogut.

[GAME05]

if it takes three great players to make a championship team and we trade Bogut to theoretically get one (assuming we draft the next Kobe Bryant and not the next Greg Odom), where do the other two great players come from? if the answer is great GM moves and a bit of luck, then there's no reason we can't do that with Bogut on the team. if there's so little talent on the team that we can't make any move to get a high draft pick without losing Bogut, then we probably have a lot bigger obstacles to cover before we'd start gutting the team. plus why would you want to do that before the next CBA is finished? maybe that could give lesser teams more advantages to bring in FAs or make other moves.

[PrinceEatMeat]

The answer is getting high lotto picks. The only way to do that is to lose games. This team won't get anywhere by continuously being a team with a ceiling of the 5th or 6th seed, and a floor of about the 10th pick like we have now. It doesn't always take three great players. It may take one superstar and a bunch of very good players, but we don't have that either. Look at some of the great teams in recent memory. The Lakers with Kobe, Gasol, Odom, Bynum, etc. The Spurs with Duncan, Ginobli, Parker or also with Robinson. Celtics with Pierce, Allen, and Garnett. Heat with Wade and Shaq. Pistons with Billups, Hamilton, Wallace, Prince, etc. The Bulls with Jordan, Pippen, and whoever else. The Rockets with Olajuwon, Drexler, and a bunch of other good role players. You need at least 2 great players to win anything, and with only 2 you need lots of good role players. 3 great players will win you multiple titles. The Bucks have nothing even resembling any of those teams or players. Bogut is one good player. We don't have the assets to acquire other good players either. The best way is to build through the draft. And a bunch of picks between 10-16 likely won't amount to much. You need at least a few top 3 or 5 picks, and maybe even just one if you hit on it and draft a Kobe or Lebron type. Either way, the Bucks won't be able to build that type of team around Bogut unless they tank, which Kohl and Hammond aren't willing to do. No top free agents will sign here, we can't trade for any great players, and we likely won't be able to draft great players either. Trading Bogut is Step 1 to becoming a great team. I'd love to be able to get guys around him, but it just won't realistically happen.

[JJHardy7]

I think Bogut plus #10 is too much to move up to #2. But I think Bogut for #2 would be a good deal.

 

I think this makes more sense.

 

I don't think it makes sense to just have a fire sale. You still have to draft the guys. The list of 'impact' players is nice, but there are misses in drafts. I'm not saying the Bucks are great, etc, but I'd like to see this team healthy and I'd like to see us draft well. We can blow up the team, but hell any 'good' thing that comes from that will likely happen for different fans once the Bucks move out of Milwaukee. I just don't think the Bucks are in a position to do this. They need to win.

 

I think the best way to do this is to draft well and not sign bad free agents. The Bucks have missed on both. I think we can only hope we get lucky and draft well in our range.

 

I think the future of this team is based on Bogut and BJ. If Bogut doesn't improve from last year and BJ continues to regress...it is time to blow the team up. It will also get us a year closer to getting rid of our bad contracts. We can only rebuild so much in the next few years based on our current contracts. Might as well stand pat for a year or two and then blow up the team with a new GM if that is the case.

 

On a side note, if we 'blow up the team' and risk moving...maybe the ping pong balls will bounce our way and we'll get the #1 pick? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[patrickgpe]

the problem i see with trading bogut is that quality free agents don't come to milwaukee. Bogut has signed an extension. Do you really think Jennings will re-up with milwaukee after his rookie comments after what he said after melo's first game with new york? I'm fine with rebuilding but time after time teams that trade stars for draft picks don't come up ahead. last season was a lost cause due to injuries, i think you add Thompson and see if things go better next year.

 

also what are you guys thinking at 40, i think Jimmy Butler is the type of player that fits well in Skiles system.

[trwi7]

I'm fine with rebuilding but time after time teams that trade stars for draft picks don't come up ahead.

 

BOGUT IS NOT A STAR. I'm sorry but it needs to keep being said. If Bogut was a star he would lead the supporting cast he has to at least 45 wins every single year. They've been over 45 wins once. That's not a star, that's not somebody you build around or worry about trading and it coming back to bite you later. He's a complimentary third piece on a championship team. He's good enough to keep the Bucks out of the high lottery which is where they need to be to get an actual star. They can worry about finding Bogut type players once they get a player that's actually worth building around.

[RockCoCougars]

Bogut was a top 10 center in the league the year before last- arguably even better. You don't trade a talent like that to move up 8 spots in a weak draft and pick up the #20 pick, especially when he's shown a willingness to play in Milwaukee.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Bogut was a top 10 center in the league the year before last- arguably even better. You don't trade a talent like that to move up 8 spots in a weak draft and pick up the #20 pick, especially when he's shown a willingness to play in Milwaukee.

No, you trade him to start a rebuilding process. Like trwi7 just said, we need to find a player worth building around first. We can worry about complimentary players later. Bogut isn't the player to build around. If we ever want to become a contender, we have to be high in the lottery and hope we strike gold and get a stud. I agree this isn't the best trade, but I wouldn't rule it out either if they are looking to rebuild now. That being said, they'd be better served to try to use Bogut to dump their bad contracts at the same time. They can't rebuild with those contracts either. If Jennings has any trade value around the league, they should look into trading him first in my opinion. Using him to get a high pick if possible would be more beneficial if they aren't looking to completely rebuild.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm going out on a limb here, but I don't think there is one guy in this draft that you can build around.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Not saying there is. But to get high in future lotteries they have to tank. Won't happen with Bogut on the team.

[patrickgpe]

i think bogut when healthy is one of the top centers in the league, thought i'll admit probably not in the star class. I think if you bring in a star, you can do big things with him. I don't think of Jennings like that

[PrinceEatMeat]

i think bogut when healthy is one of the top centers in the league, thought i'll admit probably not in the star class. I think if you bring in a star, you can do big things with him. I don't think of Jennings like that

Yes, but how will they get a star on the team? Won't be able to sign one or trade for one. Only way is through the draft, and it won't happen with where we draft on a yearly basis. Need to tank, which will never happen with Bogut on the team. We might be a good team with him at some point, and a playoff team, but never a contender.

[patrickgpe]

thats the problem, this draft doesn't have a star, unless maybe irving, so i don't see the point in trading bogut for picks.