Guys who are gone come September

[Crash2303]

I'd definitely put odds on Fielder, Hart, Bush, and even Hoffman not being with us come September.

Would it be advantageous to package all of them in a 3+ team deal to reap some young top of the rotation pitching and prospects or to trade them one at a time? Maybe even add Salome or Hoffman?

[logan82]

I think you would be wrong on most of those guys. They are not likely to bring enough back to make them worth trading except maybe Bush since he is gone at the end of the year anyway. Hoffman costs to much to move unless we pick up his contract.

[jackalope02ca]

Neither Feilder or Hart are going anywhere soon. The earliest Feilder goes is this winter. The more likely situation is they try to sign him long term next spring and if he turns down the best offer we can make he goes at the trade deadline only if we are out of it next year. I could see them trying to lock up Hart long term unless he fades badly in the 2nd half.

[DHonks]

Hart has--at least lately--expressed an interest in staying in Milwaukee. Throw in that we could probably lock up Hart, Weeks, AND McGehee (not needed though) for 5 years combined for the cost of the deal Fielder will sign in free agency. We could probably get Weeks and Hart for 6 years at $50 million each. McGehee--due to lack of service time--would probably sign for roughly 6 years at $40 million with incentives.

[logan82]

McGehee--due to lack of service time--would probably sign for roughly 6 years at $40 million with incentives.

 

McGehee will turn 32 in his first year of free agency and there is nothing about McGehee that is special enough that he can't be replaced. There is no reason to buy out a decline year of a player.

[paul253]

No way would I ever want the Brewers to sign Corey Hart for 6 years.....Weeks either. Neither of them have shown enough consistency to warrant such a deal. If they were to re-sign either, I'd go no more than 4 years. I'm still hoping they trade Hart though. The guy's value has never been higher. It'd be nice to see Melvin sell high for once.

there is nothing about McGehee that is special enough that he can't be

replaced

 

I'm surprised people are so down on McGehee. If Mat Gamel came up and put up the exact same numbers we'd all be thrilled. Why not hang on to him for awhile? He seems to be relatively consistent and is on pace to drive in over 100 runs in just his second full year in the majors. He's the type of player we need so we can save money to spend on pitching.

[Invader3K]

Personally, I don't want to see any of Weeks, Hart, or McGehee signed to long term deals. Go young and cheap.

[logan82]

paul253 wrote:

I'm surprised people are so down on McGehee. If Mat Gamel came up and put up the exact same numbers we'd all be thrilled. Why not hang on to him for awhile? He seems to be relatively consistent and is on pace to drive in over 100 runs in just his second full year in the majors. He's the type of player we need so we can save money to spend on pitching.

No, I wouldn't be thrilled with Gamel if he hit like McGehee is this year. 100 RBI is not a big deal. Even Gomez could drive in close to 100 hitting in the 5 hole. Hart drove in 91 in 2008 with a rather crappy bating line. RBI is a terrible stat.

[JohnBriggs12]

"RBI is a terrible stat".

 

I dunno. There are guys in Cooperstown who got there almost exclusively by driving in runs. Now you could say Tony Perez wasn't all that good, but in his day, you didn't want to face him with runners on and the game on the line.

 

If driving in runs was so easy, why is Fielder having so much trouble getting runners in this year? It's not like he hasn't had opportunities. He's had 102 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, and he's hitting .165 and slugging .228 in those appearances. He's even worse with 2 outs and RISP, hitting .139 and slugging .167.

 

Getting hits with men in scoring position wins games. It's not all that complicated. You can dismiss Casey McGehee if you want, but this is a guy that's won games with RBI's, including a 2 strike, 2 out hit off Carlos Marmol, one of the toughest pitchers in the game just to make contact against, much less get a hit in that situation.

[Invader3K]

Can we please stop acting like McGehee is having a horrible year? He slumped a bit in June, yes, but already is starting to bounce back.

 

McGehee 2010: .276/.343./.472/.815, 13 HR, 51 RBI.

 

And yes, I believe if Mat Gamel was putting up that exact line this season, people on this board would be ecstatic.

[JohnBriggs12]

I think you would be wrong on most of those guys. They are not likely to bring enough back to make them worth trading except maybe Bush since he is gone at the end of the year anyway. Hoffman costs to much to move unless we pick up his contract.

Two months of Hoffman costs a team about $2.5 million. The Brewers wouldn't get anything of value back for him (other than saving $2.5 million), but if he continues to string scoreless appearances, I could see a team like Detroit having interest. The $2.5 million isn't going to scare them away.

 

Counsell and Edmonds are 2 more guys that teams will value for a couple months. I'd expect both to be gone if Brewers drop completely out of it. Bush too would have value to teams that need a 5th starter down the stretch.

[monty57]

While I'd like the Brewers to sell, I don't think they will. If they do, here are the moves I think should be looked at:

 

-Bush should be traded soon to clear a rotation spot for Davis (who, like it or not is going to be in the rotation).

 

-If Davis can show that he's still a decent pitcher, he could be dealt by the deadline.

 

-Counsell, Edmonds, Hoffman and Riske are all gone after the season, so we should see if we can get anything for them.

 

-Prince and Hart should both be shopped this season. If a good offer is found, take it, if not wait until the offseason.

 

Since it's being discussed, I'll jump into the extension talk:

 

-The timing of the $200MM comment from Boras tells me he's not interested in signing an extension. Since that ship's sailed, we need to try to maximize our return for Prince

 

-Hart to me is too all-or-nothing to extend. Plus, Cain is a MLB player, and if healthy will need to be on the field next year. We will either trade Gomez or Hart before next season and Gomez will have little trade value if Edmonds keeps getting 80% of the starts in CF. I'd like to see him get some PAs for the rest of the season.

 

-If the price is right, I still think we should extend Weeks. I don't think it's purely coincidence that our offense was in the dumps when Weeks slumped and came back to life when he started to heat up. He's pretty important to this team, but the longer we wait the more expensive he gets.

 

-I wouldn't extend McGehee simply because he's already in his late 20's, and we have him under control for four more years. That's a lot of additional risk to bear simply to buy out some FA years in the decline phase of a player's career.

[wibadgers23]

Melvin isn't going to sell. So nobody will be gone come September.

[logan82]

"RBI is a terrible stat".

 

I dunno. There are guys in Cooperstown who got there almost exclusively by driving in runs. Now you could say Tony Perez wasn't all that good, but in his day, you didn't want to face him with runners on and the game on the line.

That is because baseball writers as a whole are idiots. RBI is a stat of chance not talent. I am 100% sure you will continue to stick to your BA/RBI/strikeout approach to evaluating players and many of us will continue to disregard your opinion when you use those stats.

 

Not so sure people would be excited about a .800 OPS out of Gamel. Nobody was excited about his .760 OPS and only a few were really excited about his .860 OPS as a starter. What would be exciting about Gamel is his potential to hit much better. You don't have that with a 27 year old AAA career .745 OPS hitter like McGehee.

[paul253]

Even Gomez could drive in close to 100 hitting in the 5 hole. Hart

drove in 91 in 2008 with a rather crappy bating line. RBI is a

terrible stat.

 

Do you really believe that? Do you believe Alcides Escobar could do the same? What about Jason Kendall last season? Yes, RBI is relatively dependent on guys being there to drive in, but as JohnBriggs said, Prince Fielder doesn't seem to be having success driving runs in this season. You have to be able to get hits. It's not like Casey McGehee has 51 sac flies or ground balls to second base when there is a guy on third base with less than two outs. Casey McGehee is a good hitter, and he's cheap. Why move him now?

 

And I stand by my statement. If Mat Gamel was hitting .280 with 13 home runs and 55 RBI at the all star break (like McGehee will be right around) people around here would be thrilled.

 

Also, that Corey Hart stat you reference. He was an all star in 2008 wasn't he? 58 of those RBI were pre-all star break and only 33 were after (granted he played in 29 fewer games after the break). But both his OBP and Slugging percentage went way down after the break. Even though his final stats looked rather poor, when he was actually driving in the runs he was hitting really well. Actually, it almost goes to show that when you are indeed hitting poorly, you aren't going to be driving in nearly as many runs. So I disagree with you that Carlos Gomez could drive in as many runs as McGehee if he were hitting 5th because I don't think Gomez is nearly as good a hitter.

[Baldkin]

RBI are not useful at all as a predictive stat. If they were, then Prince wouldn't be having a horrible RBI year... since, he set the club record last year and everything.

I believe CarGo could have an up year with RISP the same way Prince is having a down year. Even this year, Gomez has a .622 OPS with RISP, Prince has a .581. The only reason Gomez has fewer RBI's from guys being on base is because he has about half the AB's Prince does. Fielder has 79 AB's with RISP and 16 RBI... Gomez 42 and 12 RBI.

Hart has 72 AB's and 37 RBI. McGehee has 75 AB's and 39 RBI. (Including 9 AB's with the Bases loaded and 12 RBI there alone)

[TheCrew07]

Can we please stop acting like McGehee is having a horrible year? He slumped a bit in June, yes, but already is starting to bounce back.

 

McGehee 2010: .276/.343./.472/.815, 13 HR, 51 RBI.

 

And yes, I believe if Mat Gamel was putting up that exact line this season, people on this board would be ecstatic.

Sure if we ignore that at one point he had a 30 game stretch where he hit sub .200 then yes he only "slumped a bit" in June. His season line is nice, but he's still very replaceable, once people accept that notion then we can have an intelligent conversation about him. I like Casey, but I'm not one to let my emotions get in the way. Objectively he's a poor fielding contact hitter. He's just a solid baseball player who's already in his late 20s.

 

Until we get enough pitching I think pretty much every player with a viable replacement option is replaceable, at some point we need to get ahead of the curve pitching wise or we're always going to be stuck in this FA pitching trap.

 

Once again this is turning into Player A vs Player B conversation when that's not what this is all about. We're trying to say that Player A < Player B + Acquired Player C. I don't care about the names, I'm into the concept.

[paul253]

Objectively he's a poor fielding contact hitter

 

He's going to probably end up in the 20-25 home run range. I'm not sure I'd consider that a contact hitter. Defensively, the guy whom I'm sure you want to replace him, Mat Gamel, isn't exactly gold glove material at third base either. Maybe he'll be a small upgrade, but defense isn't an argument you should use in Gamel's favor.

 

His season line is nice, but he's still very replaceable

 

Of course it's replaceable, but he is cheap and he is productive and he's under control for a few more years. Gamel could just as easily replace someone like Fielder or Hart who are not cheap.

 

You also spend your thread knocking down McGehee on his defense and his age and how he is so replaceable. If this is all true, then you wouldn't think he'd bring back any decent pitching. So why trade him just for the sake of trading him?

[logan82]

He doesn't have much trade value unless packaged with somebody else. We would have to do something like Hart and McGehee for a pitcher. I have never suggested trading McGehee unless it was with somebody else because of his low value. It only takes one bad GM to get a good player though.

[endaround]

How does he have low value? He's about a 2.5-3 win player making the minimum this year and next before hitting arbitration. Over the next 2.5 years he'll have like $20m in excess value. He has great value.

[TheCrew07]

Objectively he's a poor fielding contact hitter

 

He's going to probably end up in the 20-25 home run range. I'm not sure I'd consider that a contact hitter. Defensively, the guy whom I'm sure you want to replace him, Mat Gamel, isn't exactly gold glove material at third base either. Maybe he'll be a small upgrade, but defense isn't an argument you should use in Gamel's favor.

 

In his career he hasn't taken many walks or struck out much, he's a contact hitter. Yes he found power out of nowhere, but he puts the ball in play. It's not a knock on him, it's who he is.

 

His season line is nice, but he's still very replaceable

 

Of

course it's replaceable, but he is cheap and he is productive and he's

under control for a few more years. Gamel could just as easily replace

someone like Fielder or Hart who are not cheap.

Where did I say anything about Gamel? Green and Lawrie could figure in the mix there, maybe a stop gap FA type... I'm not one to ever get hung up on names. Gamel could possibly start out at 3B and ultimately end up at 1B, whatever the case it's completely irrelevant... take the good deal when it presents itself, for whomever it presents itself for. The point is people need to get past the idea that if a guy is performing well he's untouchable, the situations are always quite a bit more gray than that. We can never trade anyone because they are a position player who's preforming well and is cheap, meanwhile the rotation remains garbage which limits the ceiling of the team as whole. Typically the only trades we see on this forum are for CY type pitching or looking to dump our garbage for something of substance... how realistic are those ideas from the start? Teams do not outperform their pitching, it's really that simple. I maintain we need to build an impact rotation first and go from there, if not we'll always be spinning our wheels not really going anywhere.

 

 

You also

spend your thread knocking down McGehee on his defense and his age and

how he is so replaceable. If this is all true, then you wouldn't think

he'd bring back any decent pitching. So why trade him just for the

sake of trading him?

I didn't knock McGehee at all, I stated the obvious. His age is relevant because he'll be the wrong side of 30 by the end of arbitration. I'd rather not pay him more each year as he's approaching a decline in his skills. He's no cheaper than any of his replacements would be, if you can trade him for an impact arm, why not? Maybe you missed this part:

Once again this is turning into Player A vs Player B conversation when

that's not what this is all about. We're trying to say that Player A

< Player B + Acquired Player C. I don't care about the names, I'm

into the concept.

As I've been saying since 2008, I'll trade any position player not named Ryan Braun for pitching. Package them together, separately, whatever... I don't care. I'm not married to anyone without a contract buying out part of their FA. If we aren't buying wins at a reduced rate, I'm not interested in that player long term.

[paul253]

In his career he hasn't taken many walks or struck out much, he's a

contact hitter. Yes he found power out of nowhere, but he puts the ball

in play. It's not a knock on him, it's who he is.

 

I apologize I misunderstood what you meant. I thought you meant he was a contact hitter versus a power hitter. I don't think he's necessarily a pure power hitter, but like I said, 20-25 home runs is pretty decent.

Where did I say anything about Gamel? Green and Lawrie could figure in

the mix there, maybe a stop gap FA type... I'm not one to ever get hung

up on names. Gamel could possibly start out at 3B and ultimately end up

at 1B, whatever the case it's completely irrelevant.

 

Gamel is the most obvious of choices, that's why I brought him up. Green is struggling in AA and Lawrie hasn't played third base since he signed with Milwaukee.

 

The point is people need to get past the idea that if a guy is

performing well he's untouchable, the situations are always quite a bit

more gray than that.

 

You're missing my point entirely. I am not saying don't trade him because he's hitting well. That's not at all how I think. I've been one of the most vocal advocates of trading Corey Hart and I don't think anyone is playing better than he is. My point is that on top of performing well, he's cheap and he's still under team control for a number of years. Yeah if you get a good offer for him you take it and make due with what you have, but I wouldn't actively look to trade him like I would Fielder, Hart, and some of the relievers. We need cheap, productive hitters so we can continue to spend money on pitching.

Once again this is turning into Player A

vs Player B conversation when

that's not what this is all about. We're trying to say that Player A

< Player B + Acquired Player C. I don't care about the names, I'm

into the concept.

 

I do understand this. But you do that with anyone who gets traded. I can't remember if it was in this thread or another where I said this, but I'll say it again. If Doug Melvin can't get the pitching he needs by trading Fielder and/or Hart, he shouldn't be GM anymore. I'll just add that if he can't the pitching from trading one or both of them, I doubt he'll get it by trading McGehee. I want no part of using McGehee as a throw in with another major league player to obtain pitching. I think he's more valuable to the franchise than that. Plus at some point you need to hold on to some of the offense or else you'll have no offense when the pitching finally comes around.

 

Overall I understand what you are saying about McGehee. I don't want to make it sound like I think you are nuts or something. I just think he has more value as a player than as a trading chip.

[GB12]

I don't understand at all why people would want to move McGehee. He's cheap, productive, and under our control for a few years. Is that not exactly the kind of players we want

[Baldkin]

I don't understand at all why people would want to move McGehee. He's cheap, productive, and under our control for a few years. Is that not exactly the kind of players we want

Because he's not a pitcher and the 'crew has Mat Gamel to play 3B as well.

 

So, if you can get a young, high upside pitcher for him (and not for Gamel, perhaps), you take the deal and plug Gamel in at 3B. Pitcher Fromtrade + Gamel >> McGehee + Doug Davis in 2011.

[paul253]

Pitcher Fromtrade + Gamel >> McGehee + Doug Davis in 2011.

 

You could get more by trading Corey Hart. Hart is much more expensive and is only under control for a year. Or you could move McGehee to first after trading Fielder. This doesn't have to the simple "Gamel and McGehee both play third so one of them has to go" type conversations. The Brewers could deal Fielder and Hart, save a buttload of money AND get good young pitching in return. Then you can play mix and match with McGehee, Gamel, and another player with RF, 1B, and 3B.

 

The high upside pitching will only come from trading Fielder and/or Hart, not McGehee.