Who should Davis replace?

[FVBrewerFan]

Whether we agree with it or not, seems like Macha is dead set on putting Davis back in the rotation. But who comes out? I took a look at the last 5 starts, and through Wolf's numbers in there just for fun:

 

 

Innings/Start ERA WHIP

Parra 5.2 4.19 1.50

Narveson 6 4.19 1.30

Bush 6.1 3.47 1.35

Wolf 6 5.98 1.53

 

Obviously Wolf will stay in the rotation, but it's interesting the other three SP outperformed him over the last 5 starts. Bush is the guy talked about the most, yet he actually has the best numbers. Looking at this, I would put Parra back in the bullpen for the time being. I would like to see them trade Bush ASAP (I would prefer Wolf but I don't think there will be any takers.) So if that's the goal, you have to leave him in the rotation. Moving Parra to the pen would be temporary until Bush is traded, or until another starter blows up or gets injured.

 

I don't like moving Parra back and forth like this, just seems like it's the best move at this point.

[greeg35]

If Davis is forced in I'd like to see Narveson in the pen. I think he's a valuable asset there and seems to do OK without more irregular work.

[viaarete]

Also worth noting is K/BB rate:

 

Parra: 36/13 = 2.77

Narveson: 20/12 = 1.66

Bush : 13/8 = 1.625

Wolf: 13/17 = .765

 

Looking at the stats you posted, I see why you'd choose Parra for the bullpen, but this stat is a BIG part of the reason why there's so much upside to keeping Parra in the rotation.

 

I think you've got to keep Parra in the rotation; he's got youth and contract on his side. After Narveson's last start (and comparable numbers w/Bush in the stats seen here and in the OP) alone, there should be good reason to keep him in. Bush's ERA continues to hide the fact that he's really a pretty lousy pitcher, anyway.

 

(Edit: Changed "nothing" to "noting" in first sentence)

[FVBrewerFan]

Another item hidden in those numbers is the 8 inning game Narvy had. Shows he's a tleast capable of going deep into a game, and Parra has not.

[fleehaw]

Whether we agree with it or not, seems like Macha is dead set on putting Davis back in the rotation. But who comes out? I took a look at the last 5 starts, and through Wolf's numbers in there just for fun:

 

 

Innings/Start ERA WHIP

Parra 5.2 4.19 1.50

Narveson 6 4.19 1.30

Bush 6.1 3.47 1.35

Wolf 6 5.98 1.53

 

Obviously Wolf will stay in the rotation, but it's interesting the other three SP outperformed him over the last 5 starts. Bush is the guy talked about the most, yet he actually has the best numbers. Looking at this, I would put Parra back in the bullpen for the time being. I would like to see them trade Bush ASAP (I would prefer Wolf but I don't think there will be any takers.) So if that's the goal, you have to leave him in the rotation. Moving Parra to the pen would be temporary until Bush is traded, or until another starter blows up or gets injured.

 

I don't like moving Parra back and forth like this, just seems like it's the best move at this point.

You also should take into consideration that Parra wasn't stretched out when he entered the rotation 5 starts ago. I'd really rather not jerk him around some more with going back to the bullpen. It has to be in the Brewers best interest to leave him in the rotation and evaluate him after the year.

 

[mletto157]

This was posted in a different thread... and it is looking at the season's worth of stats, not just the last 5 starts... but it's worth noting that these stats are a much better way of judging the pitchers true talent, and probable results going forward (FIP & better yet xFIP).

 

Gallardo - 2.97 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, 2.56 ERA

Parra - 1.77 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 4.37 ERA

Narveson - 4.19 FIP, 4.25 xFIP, 4.87 ERA

Davis - 4.67 FIP, 4.50 xFIP, 7.56 ERA

Bush - 5.14 FIP, 5.24 xFIP, 4.56 ERA

Wolf - 6.04 FIP, 5.39 xFIP, 4.92 ERA

 

Parra has been the 2nd best pitcher on our teamto date; only following Gallardo. And actually it's a lot closer on here than his ERA suggests. If we really wanted to have the best starting staff for the rest of this year, we would take Wolf or Bush out in favor of Davis. Bush has gotten very lucky and if he continues to pitch the same regression is probable. Even Wolf, with as bad as he's been, has been lucky and should probably be doing worse. Davis has pitched about normal relative to his career, but has gotten very UNlucky in contrast - a regression should also be expected with him. Since Wolf is signed through next year, it would probably be in the Brewers best interest to leave him in there and hope he can impove so we can see what we have in him. Bush is the most expendable and hopefully should be the one moved out of the rotation.

 

 

(edit: added link to words "different thread" --1992)

[TooLiveBrew]

And iirc those stats for Parra only include his starts. Just a disclaimer.

[And That]

I've been a pretty big Dave Bush fan in the past, but I think that its unlikely he'll be on the team next year and even more unlikely that he'll be part of the next Brewers playoff team, so if someone is booted from the rotation, it should be Bush. He's just not been the same since taking that line drive last year. Perhaps he can add a few MPH to his fastball and build some value as a reliever before the trade deadline.

 

I also agree the Brewers need to be finished jerking Parra around. Leave him in the rotation for the rest of the year. Give him that time to develop and re-evaluate his status in the offseason.

[logan82]

I would push Bush or Narveson out since I believe the rest of this season is about setting up the franchise for the future, not the rest of this year. Who will they push out, I would guess Parra or Narveson.

[mletto157]

Thanks casey, and thanks TLB for the clarification.

[joepepsi]

If it's for just one start, then Bush might get bumped again. It will be Parra or Narveson if it's planned for the forseeable future. If that's the case, then I'd have to go for putting Narveson in the pen. It's not the right decision, but it's better than bumping Parra back.

 

Narveson was great against Seattle, one of the worst offensive teams in baseball, but overall as a starter, he hasn't been all that good. He's a 5th starter at best so far, so you're not really losing anything moving him to the pen.

[TheCrew07]

The clowns up here in GB were calling for Parra to be sent back to the pen yesterday because his IP per start is so low. Of course they completely ignored the fact that he's just finally been stretched out and has the fewest starts of the pitchers currently in the rotation... then the next caller said they should pickup Looper because he's still available, he's better than what we have, and he won 14 games last year. I just turned off the radio at that point I was so mad.

 

We're never going to get over the hump until we get enough top of the rotation starters developed and pitching in the rotation. Sending Parra back to the pen is asinine at this point. This is a team that's way below .500 but has actually played better with the younger players in key roles in the bullpen and rotation. Why would I want to go back to Hoffman, Davis, Hawkins, and so on? I'd rather all of the old guys (in baseball terms) just went away.

 

Narveson is a nice a pitcher, he's just very average, Bush's stuff has fallen below average, Davis has always been a pitchability guy and isn't part of the future. If they want to move someone to the bullpen, start with those 3. Keep Parra in the rotation for the rest of the season, either he takes a step forward for the rotation or he becomes part of the bullpen's future. Having Parra's future defined makes building the rotation (note I didn't say patching) that much easier because now we know exactly what we have and where we need to get too. I'm not sure why Narveson gets so much love around here, he's not a better pitcher than Parra, and going forward I actually think Loe is the better pitcher than Narveson if I'm talking a rotation slot for the back of the rotation.

[owbc]

All the statistics suggest that Wolf should go to the bullpen. I do not see a good argument why anyone else should be demoted. The other 4 starters have all pitched well recently, it would be unfair for Wolf to be given preference.

[Funketown]

All the statistics suggest that Wolf should go to the bullpen. I do not see a good argument why anyone else should be demoted. The other 4 starters have all pitched well recently, it would be unfair for Wolf to be given preference.

I agree with you on the account that Wolf has been absolutely disgustingly barf-baggingly horrendous so far, but I still think he projects to be somewhat better than Bush going forward. Another angle is that leaving Wolf in the rotation leaves us a chance of dealing him at some point either this season or next season, if he can start to put up some decent innings. Obviously we'd have to pick up some salary, but maybe less if he throws the ball well.

[Ennder]

All the statistics suggest that Wolf should go to the bullpen. I do not see a good argument why anyone else should be demoted. The other 4 starters have all pitched well recently, it would be unfair for Wolf to be given preference.

You mean a very small sample of recent statistics suggest it. I mean he is having the worst healthy season of his career but it still putrid small sample of 16 starts and to be honest the really bad part has only been 9 starts now, since 5/14 in Phi and 3 of those starts aren't bad at all. Looking at such a small chunk of a pitchers stats is going to come to all kinds of bad data.

[joepepsi]

All the statistics suggest that Wolf should go to the bullpen. I do not see a good argument why anyone else should be demoted. The other 4 starters have all pitched well recently, it would be unfair for Wolf to be given preference.

You mean a very small sample of recent statistics suggest it. I mean he is having the worst healthy season of his career but it still putrid small sample of 16 starts and to be honest the really bad part has only been 9 starts now, since 5/14 in Phi and 3 of those starts aren't bad at all. Looking at such a small chunk of a pitchers stats is going to come to all kinds of bad data.

I understand that argument, but many who are making it are also using the small sample of 2010 Narveson, Parra, and Bush to make arguments against any of them. For example, it's pretty much consensus on this board that Bush is terrible despite his reasonable ERA because his K rate and BB rates are bad. Yet his K:BB is identical to Wolf's. So it's OK to cite small sample size with Wolf, but not Bush?

[owbc]

You mean a very small sample of recent statistics suggest it. I mean

he is having the worst healthy season of his career but it still putrid

small sample of 16 starts and to be honest the really bad part has only

been 9 starts now, since 5/14 in Phi and 3 of those starts aren't bad

at all. Looking at such a small chunk of a pitchers stats is going to

come to all kinds of bad data.

Yes--you are absolutely right--in the long run.

 

But do we really care about the long run right now? Wolf can always go back into the rotation later when someone else goes down. The Brewers need to start winning games now to get back in the race. And right now--like the sample says--Wolf is the worst pitcher in the rotation.

 

If we decide that the season is over and we need to worry about 2011--then we probably want to let Wolf figure out his problems as a starter. However, management has stated that we are still trying to make the playoffs, so I would hope that their personnel decisions correspond with their public statements.

[DHonks]

To be honest, I'd like Bush in the pen where he can either be short or long relief until someone is injured or he is traded. Parra is in the 2011 rotation, so I wouldn't demote him now. I'd also like to see the team do a 6 man rotation for a few weeks to limit the workloads of Parra and Gallardo.

[MadisonBrewerBlue]

the question.... who should davis replace in the starting rotation ? no one.... imo

[Flood Pants]

It might make sense to move Narveson to the pen temporarily just to reduce the number of pitches he throws this season. Then hopefully they can move either Bush or Davis at the deadline and get him back in the rotation.

[jerichoholicninja]

The clowns up here in GB...

Off topic but just wondering if you are referring to 107.5? The 30 minutes a day they don't spend talking about the Packers are the most unintelligible, uninformed, frustrating 30 minutes in sports talk.

[BREWCREW5]

Wolf had a nice start tonight against a strong offensive team.

[TheCrew07]

The clowns up here in GB...

Off topic but just wondering if you are referring to 107.5? The 30 minutes a day they don't spend talking about the Packers are the most unintelligible, uninformed, frustrating 30 minutes in sports talk.

Yes, the morning show, it was Chris and he's just so clueless about sports I can't believe he was actually a beat writer.

 

edit. I actually I might be combining 2 parts of the same story. I know the phone call was during the morning show 9-11, but I remember Harry Sidney having something to say about it and Chris works the fanline show 4-6. The Packer discussion is usually pretty decent, but all the rest is incredibly frurstrating

[Ennder]

For example, it's pretty much consensus on this board that Bush is terrible despite his reasonable ERA because his K rate and BB rates are bad. Yet his K:BB is identical to Wolf's. So it's OK to cite small sample size with Wolf, but not Bush

 

You have to go back to early 2009 to find a stretch of even 10 games where Bush hasn't been terrible by peripherals is the big difference. The second difference is Bush is likely gone after this year and Wolf is likely with the team for at least one more season if not two. I'm not saying Wolf is without a doubt one of the top 5 pitchers, I'm just saying that this seasons stats are a terrible way to judge something like this.

 

If I had to look at our current 6 starters assuming they were 100% healthy I'd guess that Bush is the weakest of the bunch, but Gallardo and maybe Wolf are the only two who are clearly better than the rest. These are a bunch of question marks in general.

[viaarete]

"...but Gallardo and maybe Wolf are the only two who are clearly better than the rest...."

I think it's a tough case to make for Wolf being 'clearly better than the rest.' Statistically speaking, over the course of his career, he projects to be the better pitcher, but I think this fails to take into account a few possibilities, none of which I'm at all certain about.

1. Wolf has over-performed for several years; he's not as good as his numbers might suggest. From what I've seen this year, this actually seems pretty feasible.

2. Wolf has been really, really unlucky. If you don't like luck, you could say, instead, that Wolf's stats thus far are an anomaly; he should have performed better, his stats will regress, and he will soon be posting the numbers that were projected for him. This seems about as probable, though perhaps more so, than the former.

3. Wolf aged a lot in a very short time-span. This possibility would suggest that Wolf really was the pitcher we thought he was before he came to the Brewers, but some magic number ticked-off his good-pitching-clock and he's suddenly a lousy pitcher. This seems least likely, in my mind.

Aside from Wolf's performance, the claim that Wolf is "clearly better" also negates the upside of a guy like Parra, who I mention specifically because I have a TON of optimism about his abilities.

Furthermore, since this is a thread about who to replace, and not who the better pitcher is, I'm not sure Wolf should even be in the discussion. We've signed Wolf to big money for multiple years. We have to know if it was a good deal or not; we have to know the pitcher we got when we signed that deal. There's too much investment in his contract to have him pitching from the pen or in the minors at this point.