What do the Crew do?

[PrinceFielderx1]

To be honest I'd prefer that Doug Davis relieves Narveson, and Narveson takes Cappy's spot in the bullpen. I don't really care to have Cappy on this team, and Braddock is doing very well in the bullpen and should stay there.

[davego]

IMO, Narveson has earned a spot in the rotation. I wonder if he is indeed the guy that gets bumped...does this begin to divide the clubhouse?

[Invader3K]

I just don't see why Davis deserves an automatic spot in the rotation. It's not like his performance this season has been better than any of the five currently starting.

 

If you can trade Bush or Cappy to clear a spot, fine.

[Funketown]

Please let it be Bush. Even if an argument can be made that Bush should be .50 runs/9 better than Narveson (an argument I don't personally agree with), for the future of this team we need to have a better idea of whether Narveson can be a 4.50-4.75 type guy or not. Although Wolf has absolutely sucked, he still probably is one of the best five starters on this team going forward. Parra has been much better than Bush over the course of the season, and projects to be a much better pitcher going forward. Gallardo is Gallardo.

 

It comes down to putting either Bush or Davis in the rotation, and I don't have much preference either way. If I had to choose though, I'd give the spot to DD.

[monty57]

To be honest I'd prefer that Doug Davis relieves Narveson, and Narveson takes Cappy's spot in the bullpen. I don't really care to have Cappy on this team, and Braddock is doing very well in the bullpen and should stay there.

So you have no problem with a moderately talented pitcher who is showing some success and may be a starter for the Brewers for the next few years sitting in the bullpen for 2-3 weeks at a time without seeing the field? Next offseason, when we're deciding our 2011 starting rotation, you won't have a problem with the question marks surrounding Narveson, as we won't really know what we have in him? You won't be upset when we have to go out and sign another $7-9MM 35-year-old free agent because Narveson hasn't "proved himself in a starting role?" You won't be upset when we lose a year's service time on Braddock because we decided to jettison a moderately talented Capuano in order to keep Braddock on this year's team (when Braddock has already used his option) rather than simply sending Braddock down?

 

Trading Bush makes all the sense in the world to me, but I doubt it happens. I've defended Melvin all over these boards, but I'm really starting to see what some of the posters are talking about when they say his methodology is designed for a big market team. Are we really going to waste a year's service time for Braddock on this year, when we could have nearly as good of production from Narveson / Capuano? That just doesn't seem like something a well run small/mid market team does. Neither does relegating a young talented starter who you control for a few years to the bullpen in favor of two starters who will walk at the end of the year. Neither does trading away or DFA'ing all of your potential cheap young role players so you have to continually sign aging vets for $1MM+year.

 

We have a lot of talent on this team. However, we dug ourselves in such a hole that we will need everything to play out perfectly in order for us to have any shot at the playoffs this year. In other words, we'd need a miracle. A prudent manager shouldn't operate to the detriment of the future in hopes of a miracle. I've said it before, but if Melvin plays his cards right, we won't need a year wasted on rebuilding. If he continues to try to eke out 1-2 more wins in a losing season, we may need a more serious rebuild in the future.

[joepepsi]

Davis has made it out of the 6th inning only once this year. His rehabs were about 4 innings each. He's not stretched out. Do we really want to go back to a starter who can't get out out of the 5th inning? Didn't that nearly destroy the bullpen this Spring?

 

He doesn't deserve to start. He should have to earn his way back.

[endaround]

One should almost never worry about service time with a reliever. Its just not that important.

[sheethead]

With Doug Davis pitching in Appleton today, he looks to be on schedule to pitch on Monday against the Giants. This especially sucks, because I just bought tickets to that game.

[Ennder]

I just don't see why Davis deserves an automatic spot in the rotation. It's not like his performance this season has been better than any of the five currently starting.

 

If you can trade Bush or Cappy to clear a spot, fine.

A strong case can be made that it hasn't been worse either. (only looking at starts here)

 

Gallardo - 2.97 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, 2.56 ERA

Parra - 1.77 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 4.37 ERA

Narveson - 4.19 FIP, 4.25 xFIP, 4.87 ERA

Davis - 4.67 FIP, 4.50 xFIP, 7.56 ERA

Bush - 5.14 FIP, 5.24 xFIP, 4.56 ERA

Wolf - 6.04 FIP, 5.39 xFIP, 4.92 ERA

 

Since Wolf obviously isn't going to be removed I'd say Bush has been the weakest on the year though he has been a bit better the last few starts. I think the only terrible choice here would be to remove Parra from the rotation. There really isn't a good or right choice with the rest of them. Narveson and Parra both kind of forced their way into the picture and now it is just kind of murky.

[MoreTrife]

With Doug Davis pitching in Appleton today, he looks to be on schedule to pitch on Monday against the Giants. This especially sucks, because I just bought tickets to that game.

UGH. As did I.

[monty57]

One should almost never worry about service time with a reliever. Its just not that important.

How significant an upgrade is Braddock in middle relief (LOOGY) / Narveson long relief over Narveson middle relief (LOOGY) / Capuano long relief?

 

If service time isn't important, it must be because middle & long relievers aren't that important win-wise, which means there really won't be a significant difference between the two scenarios listed above. If there isn't a significant difference, than why not save a cheap year on Braddock and dump Capuano when the season's over?

 

If you don't value relievers, than I would guess that you would like to save money in the bullpen. You can save money in the bullpen by not throwing away cheap, useful pitchers like Capuano and keeping Braddock cheaper for an extra year.

[hawing]

I just don't see why Davis deserves an automatic spot in the rotation. It's not like his performance this season has been better than any of the five currently starting.

On the flip side, how does it maximize Doug's chance of success (and I realize that how much of a chance that is, is debatable) to put him in the bullpen, whack out his appearance schedule, and squander whatever stretched-out-ness he's built up?

 

Despite my longtime Sharpie fan status, I am not sold on his being immediately plopped back into a starting rotation that seems to have finally started back toward stability; but having him take up space in the bullpen doesn't seem like a great answer either.

This just continues the zim-zam, and (if it plays out as many of us suspect, with Wolf and/or Davis being the weakest links) may provide yet more disappointing evidence that contract status outweighs performance.

[mletto157]

Gallardo - 2.97 FIP, 3.46 xFIP, 2.56 ERA

Parra - 1.77 FIP, 3.63 xFIP, 4.37 ERA

 

These two lines amaze me. Practically the same xFIP, but almost a 2 run difference in actual ERA - and Parra's even been really lucky with the HR as evidenced by his FIP.

 

If they remove him from the rotation in favor of DD, I might puke.

[logan82]

Parra gets hit harder than the average pitcher.

[kilgore37]

Maybe they want to get Doug a couple of starts and try to move him by July 31?

[monty57]

Bush has had two bad outings this year: May 21 @ MIN, 1/3 inning, 7 runs and April 25 @ Cubs 3.2 IP 9 R, 7 ER

 

Other than that, he's got a 3.07 ERA in his other 12 starts & 1 relief appearance (not including today, where he's currently given up 2 runs in 6 IP). Even with those bad outings, he's got a 4.35 ERA, which isn't terrible.

 

There has to be someone out there who would give us something for him. This is a great oppotrunity to trade an excess commodity to someone in need. If we throw one of these guys in the bullpen, we are only hurting ourselves.

[Funketown]

^ Bush has a little bit of value, but he isn't worth what he is being paid. Flyball starting pitchers with 1.16K/BB ratios usually are not hot commodities.

[mls4]

This may sound like an over-reaction to today's game, but doesn't Villanueva have options and is it possible that he is the one sent down?

[hawing]

This may sound like an over-reaction to today's game, but doesn't Villanueva have options and is it possible that he is the one sent down?

I think you may be right, and even before today, Villa hasn't helped himself a lot. Sending him down or away doesn't help the looming rotation zim-zam, though.

[monty57]

^ Bush has a little bit of value, but he isn't worth what he is being paid. Flyball starting pitchers with 1.16K/BB ratios usually are not hot commodities.

Bush is making $4MM, which isn't chump change, but a SP with a low-4's ERA is probably worth that. As far as trade value, I don't expect a whole lot, maybe a decent upside A/AA player, which (along with $2MM in salary relief) is more than we'll get when he walks when the season's over.

 

If it weren't for Davis coming back, I wouldn't be in any hurry to trade Bush, as he has been pitching fairly well (as has the rest of our rotation lately). As it stands, we have six SP and five slots. Five of them are under our control next year if we want them (Yo, Wolf, Narveson, Parra and Davis has a team option). One of them is not going to be a part of the future of the team and has some trade value to a team looking for a reliable 4/5 starter (remember, St. Louis is so desparate they signed Suppan).

 

It seems the logical thing to do would be to trade the odd man out... Dave Bush. Instead, we'll put yet another starting pitcher into the bullpen where he probably won't be very effective and will lose all of his trade value. I really hope the silence about the rotation is because Melvin is working on a deal, but I'd guess they're just delaying telling whoever is going to the pen, so as to delay upsetting someone.

[mletto157]

As much as all of that makes sense... especially seeing as it probably won't make that much of a difference for the rest of this season anyway. I really don't think Dave Bush has much trade value at all. Other teams can also see he has a FIP and xFIP that are both extremely high... his good ERA has mostly been a result of luck and shouldn't be expected going forward if he continues to pitch the same.

[pebadger]

If I can trust what I'm reading and hearing, it's clear that only thing that can save the Brewers is signing LeBron.

[LouisEly]

Well, at this point I would think that the optimal solution would be to trade whichever pitcher not named Gallardo, Parra, Narveson, Braddock, Axford, or Loe they can get the best value for. In the event that the only pitcher they can get anything for is Bush and the return is minimal, I say hold on to Bush for now as the closer you get to the end of July (assuming that Bush continues to post a low-4.00 ERA) the more valuable he becomes.

 

In the event that there is no appropriate return in trade for any pitcher excluding the six mentioned above, I'd say move Narveson to the pen based on his splits and send Villanueva or Braddock down. Yeah I know CV gets Ks, but his Ks overrate his true value because the rest of his stuff isn't that good. If hitters guess that he will throw his 89 MPH fastball and he does, it gets hit hard. His 1.41 WHIP this year isn't helping him either. Yes he has a good change which gets Ks, but with the rest of his stuff his change needs to be Hoffman-esque great in order for him to be an above-average reliever, and it isn't. He's not terrible (well, actually in a small sample with RISP he has been terrible this year), but he's not above-average either.

 

Edit - forgot Step 1: Fire Ken Macha

[davego]

I'd think moivng any of their pitchers save what Lousi mentioned is a fine idea. I'd be willing to part with the Ax and Loe too for the right price.

[Baldkin]

Edit - forgot Step 1: Fire Ken Macha

Macha won't get fired.

 

Why? Because they don't want Randolph or Sveum coaching the team next year, and even if the team simply plays to it's preseason expectations in the second half, they'll be 'way better' under the new manager and he'll have his whole leg in the door for next year.