Reasonable, Unreasonable Expections for Next 17 Games

[rluzinski]

As baseball fans, we are always going to root for the improbable to occur. After all, even the best teams in baseball significantly less than a 50% chance of winning the World Series on any given year. Even the playoffs are improbable for most teams. And get off to a bad start? Fogetaboutit, right?

The Brewers currently sit 8 games under .500. For them to even flirt with the playoffs this year, they'll probably have to be at least close to .500 by the all star break. There are 17 games before then. They are against below average talent on average and 14 of those games are at home. If the Brewers are going to make any kind of run, it's going to be now.

I'm willing to at least entertain the notion of an improbable run but I'm not going to emotionally invest myself in some pie in the sky, stars perfectly aligned, one in a million shot scenarios. I'll dream but I won't completely ignore reality (so no, I don't play the lottery). So what is a reasonable, unreasonable expectation I can have for these 17 games? Let's run the numbers first.

I used Baseball Prosectus's postseason odds page to get an estimate of "true skill" for the Brewers and their opponents. It's the pct3 column. I'm not a big fan of that estimate, as it only considers stats from this year but I'm lazy. They have the Brewers as a true .464 WP team. That's 75 wins over 162. Unfortunately, that sounds reasonable. Take those expected WP's, adjust for home field advantage and use the LOG5 equation to come up with the odds of the Brewers winning for each of the next 17 games:

		MIL	.464
		GM	WP	Odds	Wins
	SEA	3	.470	53.4%	1.6
	HOU	3	.466	53.8%	1.6
@	STL	4	.540	38.4%	1.5
	SF	4	.518	48.6%	1.9
	PIT	3	.354	65.2%	2.0
		17	.477		8.7

We can then run a monte carlo on those odds to come up with the odds of whatever record we want to root for:

9 or more wins: 53%
10 or more: 34%
11 or more: 18%
12 or more: 8%
13 or more: 3%
14 or more: .7%

"Reasonable, unreasonable expectations" is different for each person. If you want to root for more than 13 wins, be my guest. For me, 1:5 odds is about as far as I'm willing to call reasonable, though.

11-6 run and 3 games under, here we come!

[logan82]

Assuming St. Louis and Cincinnati both go 8-9 over that same stretch we would still be 5 games back. Not impossible but I still think not probable.

[rluzinski]

If the Brewers win 11 games, they probably at least split the Cardinals. The Reds are nothing special, so I think they may fade over the next few months. Really though, this thread is more about the odds of the Brewers keeping fans interested. An 11-6 run isn't going to magically jettison the Brewers into the middle of a playoff race. It might let the fans take their paper bags off though, which would be nice.

[logan82]

I think more importantly it would boost expectations and interest for 2011.

[Mays Hayes]

We miss Hernandez, Lee, and Oswalt in the upcoming series with Seattle and Houston. I don't think it's unreasonable to say the Brewers could sweep the whole homestand considering our fortunate pitching matchups, and opponents. We do that and Brewer fans will be pretty excited heading to St. Louis.

[Thurston Fluff]

Assuming St. Louis and Cincinnati both go 8-9 over that same stretch we would still be 5 games back. Not impossible but I still think not probable.

 

I think 5 games back at the break is in the race if the team is .500 or better. No team sub .500 IMHO is in a pennant race. That said I think the Cards and Reds both have some flaws that may start showing as the year goes on. The Cards have little depth as Suppan starting shows. The Reds are young and perhaps have played above their heads. I don't beleive the Cards can trade their way up like they did last season and the Reds probably don't want to give up too much given it's probably a team poised to be contenders for a few years as is. The Brewers have an interesting trading chip in Hoffman who could bring us someone better suited to the team's needs without hurting our team's future in the in the process.

 

An 11-6 run isn't going to magically jettison the Brewers into the middle of a playoff race. It might let the fans take their paper bags off though, which would be nice.

 

No but a continued run of 11-6 stretches does. There is a huge hole to climb out of but the only way to do that is to make that first good run then see if it becomes a tend. Hey I'm an optimist, I prefer to see the possibilities not the limits, what can I say?

[rluzinski]

My point is, there's a big difference between trying to support a .500 team and one that is 20 games under. It gets embarrassing to blindly root for a bad team. A lot of fans disowned the team in early June. The Brewers getting back to .500 will get many of them to at least flip on the game and check the score again.

 

We miss Hernandez, Lee, and Oswalt in the upcoming series with Seattle and Houston. I don't think it's unreasonable to say the Brewers could sweep the whole homestand considering our fortunate pitching matchups, and opponents.

 

Let's be optimistic and say that the Brewers have a 60% chance of winning every one of those games (the average won't be that high). .6^6 = 4.6% chance of going 6-0. Possible but not really a scenario i would personally root for because I'll be disappointed 19 out 20 times. But again, that's just me.

[naivin]

Ask again on Monday, and perhaps again in a week. They have 6 games at home against two of the worst teams in baseball. Realistically, to flirt with .500 anytime soon, they are going to have to win a bunch in a row, 9 out of 10, something like that. They may never get a better opportunity to do so than right now. Obviously they have 4 in their pocket already, and they miss the best SP in these upcoming series. It seems silly to say they need to sweep them both because it is highly unlikely, but 5 or 6 wins seems like almost a necessity. Even if they go 4-2 in these games, that still leaves them 6 games below .500 with just 84 to play. That doesn't get me too excited.

 

I think all would agree, if they are going to make any sort of run at respectability, the time is now. Anything short of spectacular results over the next week or so, effectively puts an end to the season.

[logan82]

Assuming St. Louis and Cincinnati both go 8-9 over that same stretch we would still be 5 games back. Not impossible but I still think not probable.

 

I think 5 games back at the break is in the race if the team is .500 or better. No team sub .500 IMHO is in a pennant race.

 

In the situation we are talking about here we are still under .500. 43 - 46 I believe.

 

I said it in another thread but we need St. Louis and Cincinnati to go .500 the rest of the way and we need to go .589 just to tie(54-34). Only 4 teams have that win% right now, Texas, Tampa Bay, Boston and the Yankees.

 

I honestly am very happy to see the team playing better but I think we are better off being sellers at the deadline and working towards getting better in 2011 and beyond.

[Thurston Fluff]

My point is, there's a big difference between trying to support a .500 team and one that is 20 games under. It gets embarrassing to blindly root for a bad team. A lot of fans disowned the team in early June. The Brewers getting back to .500 will get many of them to at least flip on the game and check the score again.

 

There is a difference between following a team and watching the games. For many to watch the actual games the team needs to be playing .500 or better. Some people follow the brewers even in crappy times but may find something else to watch on a given night if the team blows. Hell I'm as optimistic as they come and there have been years I just couldn't stomach watching the games nightly because of how frustrating they were to watch. Yet even in those times I followed the team and kept up with every little thing that went on in the organization even if I couldn't stand to watch Jose Hernandez flail hopelessly at another pitch outside the zone by 6".

[bullox]

It isn't out of the realm of possibility that STL and CIN could go under .500 for the rest of the season, lowering the Brewers required record to overcome them.

[Thurston Fluff]

That's my thought as well bullox. There isn't a team without flaws in the division so it may be one of those years where 83 wins gets it done.

[AdvantageSchneider]

A nugget of good news going forward I heard from ESPN. The Brewers play only 11 more games all season against teams that currently rank among the top 10 in OPS.

[MJLiverock]

A nugget of good news going forward I heard from ESPN. The Brewers play only 11 more games all season against teams that currently rank among the top 10 in OPS.

Is that because 7 of the top 10 teams are from the AL?

 

Cincinnati is #3 in OPS (including the AL) and the Brewers have 12 games remaining against them alone so I don't think ESPN looked at the schedule very well if that was their blurb.

 

The Brewers also have 4 with AZ who is #8 on the list. So I count 16 games vs. the top 10 OPS teams in all of baseball.

 

Add in 3 more against CO and 3 more against Philly who are tied at #11 plus 4 with the Braves who are next at #13, and 9 vs. the Cardinals at #14 and you get 35 games vs. the top 7 NL OPS teams.

 

 

 

[young guns]

I'll be disappointed 19 out 20 times. But again, that's just me.

[RockCoCougars]

As I said in the other thread you have to keep in mind that while the Brewers are playing Seattle and Houston and missing Lee, Hernandez and Oswalt, the Cards will be starting Soup twice. I have a feeling the smoke and mirrors that Soup has been getting by on as of late are going to disappear real soon- hopefully tonight, though I wouldn't be heartbroken if he continued to pitch adequately because I want the Cardinals to keep him around.

[Schlitz001]

It isn't out of the realm of possibility that STL and CIN could go under .500 for the rest of the season, lowering the Brewers required record to overcome them.

It's not out of the realm of possibility, but it would seem pretty unlikely that both STL and CIN both go under .500 for the rest of the season. If we pretend that the both teams go .500 from here on out, that places the Cardinals with a record of 85-77 winning the division. This is 6 wins less than the 91 wins that it took them to win the division last year. This means that the Brewers need to go 53-36 (.595) for the remainder of the season to finish just 1 game above the Cardinals and win the division. That seems like a tall order for a team that russ is saying is a .464 WP team over the season. I would be a lot more optimistic is the Brewers didn't have to surpass 2 teams to claim the division.

 

It would be nice to 11 or 12 games before the All-Star break to at least boost the confidence of the team, but they still have 89 games left in the season to play .600 baseball. Even if we go .500 in the remaining games there is still a big chunk of season left to pull off a 2007 Rockies type of run.

[MessiahRp]

Let's be optimistic and say that the Brewers have a 60% chance of winning every one of those games (the average won't be that high). .6^6 = 4.6% chance of going 6-0. Possible but not really a scenario i would personally root for because I'll be disappointed 19 out 20 times. But again, that's just me.

Russ,

 

I have to say I absolutely love it that you have even found a statistical value to follow to cap your disappointment levels. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

Rp

[Polish Falcons]

As I said in the other thread you have to keep in mind that while the Brewers are playing Seattle and Houston and missing Lee, Hernandez and Oswalt, the Cards will be starting Soup twice. I have a feeling the smoke and mirrors that Soup has been getting by on as of late are going to disappear real soon- hopefully tonight, though I wouldn't be heartbroken if he continued to pitch adequately because I want the Cardinals to keep him around.

Suppan should be starting against the Brewers on 4th of July.

[YoungGeezy]

Man, I'm kind of really excited for this stretch, we really have an opportunity to cover some ground. Right now our starters are at least getting quality starts close to every night, our pullpen (excluding that dreadful Colorado game) has been doing a great job, and he have a very reasonable schedule to make a little move. Seattle, Houston, Pittsburgh I hope for a 7-2 record ( can live with 6-3) and take at least split with Cards and Giants. So without all the math ha I'd have to agree with rluzinski with the 11-6 record as the most probable if we stay at this level of play. A 13-4 would be my dream situation going into the break. (2 of 3 sweeps vs. Houston, Seattle, and Pittsburgh-2-1 vs the odd team out) Then take 3 away from eighter SF or St. Louis and split with the other.

 

It is actually really nice starting so slow for once....We tend to come out blazing and then die off in the second half of the season, maybe this season will be the exact opposite. Maybe kind of like Houston a few years ago who seemed completely out of it and were like 10 or more out in August and stormed back into contention.

[naivin]

Today's game will go a long way in determining how I feel. Randy Wolf was brought here to help build a more stable rotation. If he goes out and gets blasted (against a bad team) as he has done a few times this year, and puts an end to the winning streak, it will be extremely disappointing and leave me with very little hope. He's gotta keep it going.

[Funketown]

A nugget of good news going forward I heard from ESPN. The Brewers play only 11 more games all season against teams that currently rank among the top 10 in OPS.

Maybe they're not in the top 10 in OPS because they haven't been playing the Brewers.

[Baldkin]

Now Russ, can we get a post on Unreasonable Expectations for the next 17 seasons?

[bani1717]

Actually, it looks like we somehow miss Suppan in our 4-gamer with the Cards next weekend. That really ticks me off. The one starter we don't see is Suppan? Instead, we get Hawksworth, Garcia, Carpenter, and Wainwright. Hopefully we catch one of those guys on a bad day.

[yfinn6]

Actually, it looks like we somehow miss Suppan in our 4-gamer with the Cards next weekend. That really ticks me off. The one starter we don't see is Suppan? Instead, we get Hawksworth, Garcia, Carpenter, and Wainwright. Hopefully we catch one of those guys on a bad day.

I consider this a good thing. I fully expected Suppan to go 7 solid innings against the Brewers, it would only make sense in a Murphy's Law type way.