If we're still out of it in July...

[rluzinski]

I hate the phrase "we are still in it" because every team is still technically still in it. BP estimates the Brewers odds for a postseason appearance at 2.7% Assuming that is correct, I'm curious how many would call that being in it?

[RockCoCougars]

I hate the phrase "we are still in it" because every team is still technically still in it. BP estimates the Brewers odds for a postseason appearance at 2.7% Assuming that is correct, I'm curious how many would call that being in it?

I don't care what BP says, depending on what happens the next 10 games, they still have a decent shot. The Brewers have a favorable schedule the next 6 games and the Cardinals will probably have Suppan starting twice. Tonight they have Soup against Greinke. I like the Royals' chances there. Like I said, take care of business for the next 6 games (5-1 would be nice, but 4-2 would work too) and you have a chance to get right back into things. That four game series with the Cardnals will be pivotal. Unfortunately, it looks like the Brewers will miss Suppan, but even so, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that they could take 3 of 4 from the Cardnals if they are still playing well. If everything goes right, they could be only 4-6 games back at the break.

 

At any rate, I don't think that an 8 game deficit is insurmountable at this point. What kind of a lead did the Brewers have at this point in 2007 (they were 8.5 games up on June 23)? The Reds are catchable as well, as the Brewers still have 12 games against them.

 

One game at a time, and keep the mojo going .

[monty57]

There is no doubt theat the eight game deficit is not insurmountable. The question is what are the odds and at what point do you decide that the odds are small enough that you start playing/planning for the future.

 

I've expected a run that would push the Brewers near .500 for quite a while now, as we have at least as much talent on the roster this season as we did last season. However, this leads us to a similar situation to last season, where we decide "we've still got a chance," and end up being minor buyers instead of sellers. We still miss the playoffs and we go into next season with less talent and more questions than we'd have if we decided to sell.

 

I know this feels like giving up, and it goes against everything we're always taught in athletics, but it's probably going to be the best thing for the franchise. I've figured early-to-mid July would be the earliest you'd think of selling, and that would only be for someone like Fielder or Hart. I'm sure nothing will happen until at least the St. Louis series is over, but if your scenario palys out, and we're six games out at All Star break, I think we'll see last season all over again... we'll miss the playoffs by a wide margin, and we'll get nothing (not even draft picks) for all of the talent that leaves at the end of the season. We'll have numerous debates over what we should do with players like Narveson, Parra and Gomez, as their playing time will be limited, and we're going to put way too many pitches on the arms of Yo & Axford trying to eke out a few extra wins. Plus, we can probably start taking bets on which of our AA/AAA guys will get traded for a patchwork upgrade like Lopez last year who will leave after the season's over. My money is on Katin, as Melvin has a habit of getting rid of minor leaguers I like.

 

But you're right, we still have a chance, even if it is only 2.7%. I'll continue to cheer for them every day.

[RockCoCougars]

You're right, the margin is thin. If they get swept in St. Louis for instance, it's over. I think they need to at least maintain their position and hopefully pick up a couple of games before the break. A month from now, I think that they need to be within 5 or 6 not to be sellers at the deadline.

[Invader3K]

For what it's worth, MLB Trade Rumors has a synopsis up where Attanasio has basically said he's not interested in seeing the team dismantled, and feels the team could make a run again next season.

[monty57]

I agree with that, Invader3k, depending on what he means be "dismantled." We could still have most of our meaningful players back even if we're sellers this year. The only big parts of the team that have been discussed in trade talks are Fielder and Hart, and trading either of them should bring back some talent that could help us next year, not to mention opening up more salary that could be used on a FA 1B/RF so we wouldn't have a huge downgrade (i.e. trade Feilder for young pitching and sign Konerko, D. Lee or Dunn to a 1-2 year deal play 1B).

 

Even if we traded Fielder, Bush, Hoffman, Davis, Counsell and Inglett by the deadline, we would still have C, 3B, SS, 2B, LF, CF, RF, at least 4/5 of our rotation and most of our bullpen back next year. That's hardly dismantling the team, although it may mean that Mark A may still have his sights set on extending Fielder.

[joepepsi]

For what it's worth, MLB Trade Rumors has a synopsis up where Attanasio has basically said he's not interested in seeing the team dismantled, and feels the team could make a run again next season.

I kind of agree with him. Tentatively. Now until the All Star break is crucial. I'm not sure that talent obtained by trading Hoffman, Bush, Edmonds, Counsell, and others like them is really going to make a big difference next year or in the more distant future. You might get better long term talent for Bush through draft compensation.

 

I doubt many GMs are ready to throw top prospects for Corey Hart in the next month. Trading Prince is probably inevitable, but I agree with Doug on this, you get more for position players in offseason trades.

 

There's a bit of self delusion here, thinking that trading the spare parts on the 25 man roster is going to net great long term gains. Contending teams don't dump top prospects at the break for average veteran talent anymore.

[Invader3K]

Given how we've heard absolutely nothing whatsoever about the negotiations with Fielder/Boras, that seems like a pipe dream at this point. I hope Attanasio isn't deluding himself.

[logan82]

For what it's worth, MLB Trade Rumors has a synopsis up where Attanasio has basically said he's not interested in seeing the team dismantled, and feels the team could make a run again next season.

 

What does dismantled mean though. If he thinks trading Fielder is dismantling the team I completely disagree. I think Fielder 100% has to be traded before the start of next season. I am very afraid of Mark A. and his meddling. I see what has happened to the Astros the last half decade and their trading for players while thinning their farm system when they are realistically out of it like we are now.

[monty57]

There's a bit of self delusion here, thinking that trading the spare parts on the 25 man roster is going to net great long term gains. Contending teams don't dump top prospects at the break for average veteran talent anymore.

 

No, but Edmonds playing 80% of the time won't show us if Gomez can grow as a player. Starting Bush & Davis won't tell us if Parra and Narveson can be starting pitchers next year. Can Katin hit MLB pitching? Won't know if he spends all year at AAA. Plus, we'll save several million dollars if we can trade some of these guys.

 

However, if we are to trade Fielder or possibly Hart, we could probably get someone who could help as soon as next year. Plus, if Bush is good enough to net us draft picks (making him a Type A or B FA), then we would get something in trade for him. I personally doubt we get any comp picks for him. Even if he were to be Type B (doubtful as I believe it takes two years' data and he had bad numbers last season), we probably wouldn't offer him arby.

[LouisEly]

You're right, the margin is thin. If they get swept in St. Louis for instance, it's over. I think they need to at least maintain their position and hopefully pick up a couple of games before the break. A month from now, I think that they need to be within 5 or 6 not to be sellers at the deadline.

And if Chris Carpenter blows out his elbow again, Jamie Garcia's walks start catching up to him, Pujols strains a hammy, Scott Rolen shows his age and reverts back to 2007/2008 form, and Mike Leake's WHIP and workload catches up to him (and starts hitting like a pitcher), that can change the landscape very quickly too. There's no guarantee that STL or Cincy hold their form - they could easily collapse just like the Brewers did. Especially Cincy - their pitching is nothing special, and I'm sure the stats guys can show that Leake's peripherals don't translate into his results. It was only a couple of years ago that the winner of the NL Central was 83-78.

[FVBrewerFan]

I maintain they can be sellers, yet keep themselves in the race at the same time. Trading Edmunds, Counsel, Hoffman, etc. will have little effect on winning games this year. And if you can clear a little salary and pick up a couple decent low minors arms for them, why not? But if they are within 3-4 games at the Break, I woud hold back on trading guys like Hart or McGehee. Fielder I don't even consider, because I just don't think there's any way he gets traded before the end of the season.

 

Then you can see where we are are towards the end of August. You can still try to make trades then. I just don't think there is a dominant team in the division or the NL this year, so may as well hold on to the dream for a bit longer. It's not like trades have to happen in July.

[Bankjob]

I maintain they can be sellers, yet keep themselves in the race at the same time. Trading Edmunds, Counsel, Hoffman, etc. will have little effect on winning games this year.

 

I do not think we can trade away all of our veterans and have the ability to compete late in the season. We can rebuild and do this, but if you want to complete late in the year you need some veteran leadership.

 

I think Hart is the big quandry for the club. We can trade him while he has value/sign him to an extension/risk giving him away for a draft pick. Tough spot for Melvin, but that's why he gets paid the big bucks.

[FVBrewerFan]

Veteran leadership is more hype than reality in my opinion. I just don't believe trading those guys qualifies as rebuilding.

[logan82]

Well it sounds like we are in a more of a buying mode if Mark A's interview in the booth is to be believed. I think I am going to be sick. Brian brought up the impact of the Sabathia deal. I hate to see parallels drawn between 2008 and this year. We were 4.5 back with a 44 - 37 record that year at this time. Right now we are 32 - 42 and 8.5 back. Not even close to the same situation. Buying this year would be incredibly stupid. I will withhold judgment until they actually start making moves but I really, really hope they don't waste resources chasing the 2% chance we could make the playoffs. It makes me sick that we could possibly end up like the Astros. Crappy MLB team and a depleted farm system because of making stupid trades to somehow make a miracle playoff appearance. We are a few years away from that yet luckily. I am just really tired of our manager and GM(provided we go into buying mode) making moves based on what is possible instead of what is probable.

[FVBrewerFan]

I heard Mark A. too, but he really didn't said anything diferent since the day he bought the team. That is, he's always willing to be a buyer if he believes they can make a move that can get them to the post-season. I admire that about him, and he's proven he will do it. But he's practical too, and I don't think he's ready to start buying any time soon.

 

I guess I've just learned to accept and understand Owner/GM-speak in pro sports. Mark A. doesn't want to go on a Brewers broadcast and say "this season is toast, we're going to start dumping players in a couple weeks." He took the optimistic approach, and that's fine with me.

[trwi7]

I would not be shocked to see this team make a "buy" move. It would be incredibly stupid, but I wouldn't be shocked to see it.

 

Anything to keep butts in the seats for this group.

[Ennder]

If it is a buy move that helps us next year too I'm all for it.

[brewmann04]

The brewers need to sell off their older assets and go with the young kids. I would look to move Riske ,Edmunds,Counsell and Hoffman and try to get a prospect or two from a team looking to make a move. And hop some team losses a pitcher and make a play for Davis or even better Wolf.

[monty57]

I agree with Logan on this, and I think the Astros analogy unfortunately could be a good one. All we need is the "make a splash" FA signing this offseason like the Astros did with Carlos Lee, which is crippling them. Even if the prospects we trade only project to be bench players, bullpen arms or 4/5 starters, we will need those players on the team. We continually pay $1MM+ for each of our role players. If we can start filling the role player positions with $400k players, we can have excess money to be used on our everyday players, whether that's through extending young stars, signing FAs or taking on salary in a salary dump trade. Plus, some of these players will outdo expectations, giving us a cheap, homegrown starter

 

Unless things really change, I would look to trade players like Edmonds and Counsell for AA players who could help us in the future rather than trading AA players who could help us in the future for players comparable to Edmonds and Counsell in an effort to eke out another win or two this season. As FVBrewerfan noted, we can trade some of our players without really reducing the talent on the team. For example, we will need to open up a rotation spot when Davis is healthy. We could move Narveson (who's pitching fairly well and under control for a few seasons) to the bullpen and cut Capuano, or we could trade Dave Bush, who's walking after this season anyways. I'm for trading Bush. Another example would be Counsell. Inglett is outplaying him, but only gets limited playing time. We could trade Counsell to a team who is looking for a utility guy who hit pretty well in the recent past, and "has a history of being clutch in big games." Inglett could fill in as the main utility guy, and Cruz could be brought up as a defensive specialist bench player. Example #3: Edmonds has hit alright, but breaks down when played too often, and Macha can't help but start him everyday against RH pitchers. He's hitting well, playing decent defense, and has a name that will draw interest in trade. We could bring up Katin as a much-needed RH bat off the bench and start Gomez on a regular basis to improve our team defense and show us what we have in him for the future.

 

There's more, but I'll stop there. We have excess players, and trading a few of them who will leave at the end of the season seems the prudent move, and doesn't seem to me to be giving up on the season. We can maintain our talent level this year, save money and give playing time to people who have a chance of helping us in the future.

 

Now, if we traded Fielder for minor league pitching, we will have punted this season for next year, but as much as I think Melvin should explore all possible opportunities in a Fielder trade, it appears he has decided that "you get more for a pitcher during the season and more for a position player during the offseason" is an absolute rule, and like the law of gravity it can't be broken. I don't want to come off as a Melvin basher, as I've defended Melvin a lot on this board. It just sounds like he's already warned other GM's that Fielder is basically off the market until the offseason. Maybe I'm misreading the tea leaves.

[brewmann04]

I just hope they keep Melvin away from the FA Starting pitching pool.

[FVBrewerFan]

Now, if we traded Fielder for minor league pitching, we will have punted this season for next year, but as much as I think Melvin should explore all possible opportunities in a Fielder trade, it appears he has decided that "you get more for a pitcher during the season and more for a position player during the offseason" is an absolute rule, and like the law of gravity it can't be broken. I don't want to come off as a Melvin basher, as I've defended Melvin a lot on this board. It just sounds like he's already warned other GM's that Fielder is basically off the market until the offseason. Maybe I'm misreading the tea leaves.

I think Melvin would pull the trigger on a Fielder trade this summer if the deal was good value for the Brewers. But Fielder must have lost at least SOME value with the year he's having. They may be better off taking a bit of a gamble that Prince will pick up his Avg, or more importantly his RBI. Then there will be more trade options in the off-season.

 

Like it or not, ticket sales are a big part of it too. If they trade him in July, it could really put a damper on Sept ticket sales. If they wait, it will give them time to develop a marketing plan for next year that sounds better than "Your 2011 Brewers: Braun, Gallardo, and free nachos every Tuesday."

 

 

[monty57]

I like the free nacho idea :-)

 

Again, I'm not against waiting until the offseason to trade him if that is when he will draw the most return. It just seems Melvin has already decided that there is no chance that the most return could occur during the season, so he's kind of told other teams not to bother trying. Maybe he has put the feelers out and is just telling the fans what he thinks they want to hear. Maybe Melvin's into reverse psychology and the quote is trying to get other GM's to call him with a huge offer.

 

I think that the Brewers could easily run a PR campaign that will make the Brewers fans understand the trade. "We sat down in good faith, trying to keep Prince here. His agent, known around the circuit as Satan, said Prince was looking for a $200MM deal." People in Milwaukee aren't dumb. When this same thing happened with Carlos Lee, the fans continued to buy tickets, and they would continue to buy tickets if Prince was traded. Milwuakee just has to make sure they don't look like the late-Selig-era Brewers. I think Boras makes a good target of fan angst, and just like in the Carlos Lee deal, the fans will quickly get over the trade.

 

With that in mind, the main reason the Brewers should trade Fielder will be for the betterment of the franchise. Would it be better to trade him during this season or during the offseason? I don't know the answer, so I would see what is available during the season, and if it's not enough, I'd wait until the offseason. If, however, we're out of the race and some desparate GM backs up the pickup truck and dumps a really good deal on your lap, you have to take the deal.

[Fatter than Joey]

But Fielder must have lost at least SOME value with the year he's having.

 

I don't think so.

 

My best guess is that potential buyers of a player like Fielder are going to be inherently skeptical, of both his hitting and fielding, and his ability to produce over the long-term. I don't think that a lot of Fielder-tire-kickers were ever going to plop down a huge bundle of players for Prince, based on his 45+ HR seasons. On the flip side, if the perception is, is that Prince is having a down year, he still is a top 10 hitter in the NL in OBP, and HR. I think buyers are going to lock in on the Prince that hits 30+ HRs, instead of 50 HR Prince.

 

Ultimately, I think the thing that drives Prince's value, would be multiple teams being interested in him.

[rluzinski]

Prince's current line is .260/.387/.484/.871 and he has a rest of season ZiPS projection of 273/.384/.539/.923. I think there are teams that would find that valuable, even with his suspect defense. Most teams realize he's neither a true 30 HR hitter nor a 50 HR hitter. Probably 40.