If we're still out of it in July...

[sheethead]

Its hard for me to know for sure if its going to be a mistake, because I don't have any insight into what other GMs are going to offer up. As a fan, I want to see them either tear it up with a massive run or tank it completely. The middling around sub- to just over mediocrity is fan purgatory. At least Pirate fans know they are in hell, right?

[logan82]

Its hard for me to know for sure if its going to be a mistake, because I don't have any insight into what other GMs are going to offer up.

True but I would part with guys not coming back next year like Edmonds, Hoffman and Bush for very little.

 

As a fan, I want to see them either tear it up with a massive run or

tank it completely. The middling around sub- to just over mediocrity is

fan purgatory. At least Pirate fans know they are in hell, right?

In hell and climbing out. We don't know if we are climbing or falling. If we are climbing it is very slowly and the right trades this you would speed things up.

[monty57]

I think we have to be sellers if we are indeed "out of it." There is still a small window to get back into it. Its not like the Reds and/or Cards are running away with the division. If the Crew can climb back to .500 and be within 5 games of the division lead by the All Star break and are showing signs of playing good baseball, I don't think Melvin is going to sell.

I think you are probably right and I think it would also be a huge mistake.

I have to agree with Logan. This is exactly what happened last season, and is why we got nothing in return for players like Cameron, and instead gave up Gillespie for Lopez... all to end up with a few more wins, but well out of the race. If we are at all "in it," you are correct that Melvin will probably tinker a bit and trade some prospects to add a piece, when he should be selling some pieces to get more prospects.

 

After I wrote my previous post, I looked at it and thought that other than trading Fielder, many of the other "sell" moves wouldn't really lessen our chances of winning games this season as the replacements could perform as well as the players being traded.

[sheethead]

If there is a market for those guys, I certainly hope they are traded.

[logan82]

Last year was a little different though. We were in first place into early July. We tanked in July after Bush and Suppan got hurt. By the end of July we definitely should have been sellers though. Things were a little more optimistic last year. We at least had shown we could play good baseball. This year, not so much.

[rcon14]

I think we have to be sellers if we are indeed "out of it." There is still a small window to get back into it. Its not like the Reds and/or Cards are running away with the division. If the Crew can climb back to .500 and be within 5 games of the division lead by the All Star break and are showing signs of playing good baseball, I don't think Melvin is going to sell.

I think you are probably right and I think it would also be a huge mistake.

I have to agree with Logan. This is exactly what happened last season, and is why we got nothing in return for players like Cameron, and instead gave up Gillespie for Lopez... all to end up with a few more wins, but well out of the race. If we are at all "in it," you are correct that Melvin will probably tinker a bit and trade some prospects to add a piece, when he should be selling some pieces to get more prospects.

 

After I wrote my previous post, I looked at it and thought that other than trading Fielder, many of the other "sell" moves wouldn't really lessen our chances of winning games this season as the replacements could perform as well as the players being traded.

My only problem with your post, is what was Gillespie gonna really do for this organization? We have Braun in LF, had Cain as a prospect in the OF, (obviously the Gomez thing was not done), and had Cutter Dykstra in the OF picture. Plus Gillespie wasn't an impact player regarless.

 

[monty57]

My only problem with your post, is what was Gillespie gonna really do for this organization? We have Braun in LF, had Cain as a prospect in the OF, (obviously the Gomez thing was not done), and had Cutter Dykstra in the OF picture. Plus Gillespie wasn't an impact player regarless.

 

Maybe, maybe not. In limited MLB playing time with Arizona, he's got a .772 OPS and I believe he's played all three OF positions (I know he's played LF & CF). He's got a .909 OPS at AAA.

 

This past offseason, we had to sign Edmonds for $850,000, trade for Gomez ($1.1MM) and retain Gerut ($2.0MM) in order to have an outfield. We also paid Lopez a few million last year. At the very least, Gillespie could have been a farily solid fourth OF for a cheap price for six seasons.

 

Last year was a little different though. We were in first place into early July. We tanked in July after Bush and Suppan got hurt. By the end of July we definitely should have been sellers though. Things were a little more optimistic last year. We at least had shown we could play good baseball. This year, not so much.

 

Agreed, and this shows the variance in baseball. With roughly the same talent, last year we played well to start the season and then collapsed. This year, we started out poorly and who knows how we'll finish. If I had to guess, we'll get hot at some point and end up slightly below .500 (right around where we ended last year). If we're sellers, we'll end up with a few less wins, but probably not that many less. Either way, we'll be out of the playoffs, so I'd rather sell and have some fun watching the kids who will be our future stars.

 

For the record, I wasn't completely opposed to trading for Lopez when we did it, even though I hated losing Gillespie (one of those guys I always followed). We absolutely should have been sellers as the season went on. That's why I'm worried that Melvin is very averse to being a "seller." Unless we get really hot, really soon and are only a game or two back in the division in a couple weeks (I doubt the Wild Card comes out of the Central this year), I hope we sell.

[FVBrewerFan]

I see 5 distinct groups of players that could be moved in July-Sept:, in the order of how likely a trade will be:

 

1) Counsell, Edmonds: Vets off the bench most any contender would want.

 

2) Villy, Riske, Coffey, Hawkins, Hoffman: There will be teams willing to deal to get a solid arm in the bully. Braddock, Loe and Ax are off limits, and I doubt there would be any interest in Cappy or Smith. But if Coffey and Hawkins recover from their injuries and Riske proves he is over his injury, any of those guys can be moved. Hoffman needs to show he still has "it", of course, and then i could see a contender sign him as insurance if they have an iffy closer themselves.

 

3) Hart, McGehee, Weeks: Depends largely on injuries, and how these guys are performing later this year. I would be willing to pull the trigger for any of these guys if the right deal presented itself. I think Hart is the most likely, but I don't consider the other two untouchable.

 

4) Bush, Wolf, Davis: If Parra is pitching well, no way they'll trade him. If he isn't, nobody will want him. Narveson isn't really a candidate for a trade either. In fact, the three I listed aren't very likely to be traded. Wolf has 2 more years left on his contract. Davis would really need to show something in ashort amount of time. Bush is probably the most likelt trade candidate for some team that needs the proverbial "innings eater" at the bottom of the rotation for the stretch run.

 

5) Fielder: Anything can happen here, but I really believe it's too soon to get the best offer. I think Boras will want to use the off-season to tinker for the nest deal he can get.

 

With all that said, what if the Brewers go 2-2 on the remainder of this road trip, go 7-2 on the home stand, and end up at or very near .500 at the Break? doesn't change anything for me, but I imagine Mark A. will really struggle with that one.

[joepepsi]

I don't think they are as far off from competing in 2011 as most here do. Among FVBrewer's categories I agree with trading anyone in 1 or 2, although I probably wouldn't trade Villy. I can see trading anyone in group 4, although I agree only Bush probably has any value. Since he almost certainly won't be back next year, might as well get a AA pitcher for him this year, if possible.

 

I wouldn't trade anybody in group 3. If Fielder is going to be traded before 2011 opening day, then I want Hart still on the team. Even if he gets $8 million in 2011, (not a foregone conclusion), that's affordable for the team. Gamel will almost certainly be on the 2011 opening day roster, so I want either he, Hart, and McGehee to play for the 3 corners not occupied by Braun.

 

If they are around .500 at the Break, I'm not sure I could go for them being sellers. I still don't believe they are as bad as their record, and they may only be one hitter and one rotation spot from being competitive in 2011. Trading Fielder in the offseason could go a long way to filling those two spots.

[HiAndTight]

My only problem with your post, is what was Gillespie gonna really do for this organization? We have Braun in LF, had Cain as a prospect in the OF, (obviously the Gomez thing was not done), and had Cutter Dykstra in the OF picture. Plus Gillespie wasn't an impact player regarless.

Actually I think he could have done a lot for the organization. Both he and Roque Mercedes. Cutter Dykstra was never really in the OF picture as he was struggling

something awful at the lower levels. Cain and Braun are only 2 OF'ers, and you have no idea what the future holds for Hart, Gindl, Davis(either). At the very least they offer a lot more than Felipe Lopez does. I hated that trade last year as I see Cole Gillepie as a serviceable LF'er, and a good 4th OF'er, and Mercedes has some value as a middle reliever.

 

It'd be like moving Caleb Gindl and Lamontange for a player who does little for us moving forward. Hell, we didn't even get any draft pick compensation for him.

[JohnBriggs12]

My only problem with your post, is what was Gillespie gonna really do for this organization? We have Braun in LF, had Cain as a prospect in the OF, (obviously the Gomez thing was not done), and had Cutter Dykstra in the OF picture. Plus Gillespie wasn't an impact player regarless.

Actually I think he could have done a lot for the organization. Both he and Roque Mercedes. Cutter Dykstra was never really in the OF picture as he was struggling

something awful at the lower levels. Cain and Braun are only 2 OF'ers, and you have no idea what the future holds for Hart, Gindl, Davis(either). At the very least they offer a lot more than Felipe Lopez does. I hated that trade last year as I see Cole Gillepie as a serviceable LF'er, and a good 4th OF'er, and Mercedes has some value as a middle reliever.

 

It'd be like moving Caleb Gindl and Lamontange for a player who does little for us moving forward. Hell, we didn't even get any draft pick compensation for him.

I don't think the loss of Gillespie has any real affect. He's 26. His ceiling is probably as an average 4th OF. If you really like him a lot or have a big need for a cheap 4th OF, it wouldn't take much to get him (or a similar type player) back. Look how many teams Matt Murton was bounced around. Granted he couldn't play CF (not sure how much Gillespie can either), but he probably is a better hitter than Gillespie and also lacks the power to be an everyday corner guy.

[monty57]

Well, we're a week away from July and we're 9 games out of the division and 10 games out of the wild card with the 8th worst record in all of baseball. I think it's time we start to realize that even if we get hot, we aren't making the playoffs this season.

 

When Melvin was on with Brian & Bill yesterday, he said that Davis was likely to be back in the rotation after his next AAA rehab start. That means either Narveson or Parra are likely to be demoted to bullpen duty. I think a big move for us would be to try to trade Dave Bush ASAP. He's been pitching well, so I'd think someone in need of a 4/5 starter would give us a prospect for him, freeing up some cash, a roster spot and a needed spot in the starting rotation. If the Cardinals are throwing Suppan out there every five days, someone would give us something for Bush. This move is more to make sure that Narveson and Parra stay in the rotation than it is a knock on Bush. We need to see what we have in Parra and Narveson, and throwing them in the bullpen won't help.

 

Edmonds has an .810 OPS now, so I'm sure we could get something for him. In addition to whatever prospect we get, this would allow Gomez to play every day, which he needs to do so we can see if he should be our starting CF next season. It will also allow us to bring up someone like Katin to see how he looks against MLB pitching. As long as Edmonds is on the roster, he is going to start everyday against RH pitchers (around 80% of the total starts), and he is definitely not part of the future.

 

Hoffman has looked better lately, so I'd probably see if anyone would give us anything for him, to allow us to keep all of our good, young bullpen arms around. As players get healthy, there's a chance we could lose some players who are out of options.

 

I'd definitely let the world know that Fielder and Hart could be had for the right price, but that we aren't going to give them away. For a team in need of a bat, either of these two could bring back some decent prospects. If we don't get offered enough, we can move Fielder and possibly Hart in the offseason.

 

Unless any of these moves would cost us a year of a prospect's service time, I'd start the selling process sooner rather than later. We may get more return by giving the buyer more time with the player, and we could get to the market before other sellers. If guys like Adrian Gonzalez end up on the market later, it will diminish the potential return for Fielder.

[FVBrewerFan]

I agree with all of that. I just think Hoffman may take a little longer, since he'll have to close a few games at some point before he'll have real value. I also like your idea of bringing Katin up. The guy has big time power, and certainly has potential to figure in next year, even if it's just a big bat in a PH role. But by all means, trade Bush and Edmunds ASAP. Counsel too, you can't tell me there's not teams out there who could use a guy like that down the stretch. As I said earlier, if anyone wants an arm in the buly, I wouldn't hesitate to trade Villy, Riske, or Coffey.

 

Great thing is, none of those moves mean the Brewers are "rebuilding." They already have better options to replace every one of those guys, arguably with the exception of Bush.

[TooLiveBrew]

This move is more to make sure that Narveson and Parra stay in the rotation than it is a knock on Bush. We need to see what we have in Parra and Narveson, and throwing them in the bullpen won't help.

 

I agree on Parra, though I think he's been showing about what we can continue to expect. I disagree on Narveson, because I think we already know what he is -- another soft-tossing lefty that has to be almost completely locked-in to give you 6 or 7 good innings. He hasn't been effective against righties, and I don't see anything to suggest he will be in the future. Maybe I'm too down on the guy, but imo he's exactly the pitchability type of guy the Brewers should be doing everything to get out of the rotation. I guess at least he's still inexpensive.

 

My vote would be Narveson to the bullpen, and see if Davis can pitch well enough to entice some team in the playoff hunt to send a prospect in exchange for him.

[monty57]

I guess I like Narveson's 7.29 k/9. The .954 OPS against vs. righties is pretty awful. I'd guess your scenario of Narveson to the bullpen is what's going to happen, or Macha will flip/flop Narveson, Bush and Parra based on match-ups.

 

I had hoped that Davis would bring us something in trade, but with his terrible start followed by an injury that's kept him out for quite a while, I don't see him getting moved this season. A few of our potential trading chips got taken away from us due to injury or poor performance (Davis, Hoffman, Zaun, Coffey, Hawkins, Edmonds has had injuries, Gerut's been out forever, Inglett's sore foot makes him hard to trade and makes it hard to trade Counsell, as it would leave us without a backup SS unless we bring Cruz to the majors). Oh well, I guess that happens when you've got numerous guys in their mid-to-late 30's on the roster.

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't think those ptential trading chips have been taken away, just delayed. Some of those guys you mentioned could still be moved, they just need to come back and prove they're healthy/effective for a month or two. Hoffman and Edmunds are already on the way. Guys like Hawkins, Coffey, and Davis are a bit more of a reach.

[joepepsi]

I don't know what to think about Narveson. He's certainly no worse than Looper, so as a 5th starter he's all right. Problem is, the team has too many 4th/5th starters. But Narveson's K rate is too good to just give up on him.

 

On the other hand, with those splits and that K rate maybe he's best suited as the LOOGY of the future. Braddock throws too hard and has too much talent to be the guy who just gets out lefties.

[monty57]

I think Narveson's definitely going to be a Brewer for a while. The question is just whether it's going to be as a starter or a reliever. Since we've had such a poor start to this season, it just seems to me like this would be a good time to give him a bunch of starts to see how he pans out. With Yo, Wolf, Davis, Bush and Parra all on the roster with Narveson, someone is going to have to be odd man out, and it's probably going to be either Parra or Narveson.

[joepepsi]

"If we're still out of it in July... "

 

Clearly we are back in it, baby!

[Menotti80]

still 8.5/9.5 games back.

 

i think if they get to the 5-6 games back range, then they can be considered "back in it". getting swept in a series puts us right back into the 11-12 games back territory.

 

 

i think "back in it" means we can't be "back out of it" in a matter of 1 bad series...

[RockCoCougars]

No way are these guys out of it at this point. That said, the season basically comes down to the next week in a half. They need to take care of business against the Mariners and the Astros, which is very doable. For a change, it looks like they are going to get some breaks. They are going to miss Cliff Lee and Hernandez, and then it looks like they miss Oswalt too. Take care of business at home, and that series in St. Louis would be absolutely huge. I think if they can get within 6 at the break, they still have a fighting chance. Now that the dead weight has been trimmed from the bullpen, and the starting is coming together a little bit, things are looking a lot better. Going further, it's hard to count them out when the team they are chasing has Jeff Suppan in the rotation. Let's keep our fingers crossed that Prince and Braun both get hot at the same time.

[LouisEly]

Yep - six games at home against two of the worst teams in baseball, missing each of their top starters. When I looked at the pitching matchups I thought they could take 2 of 3 from the Twins, and was pleasantly surprised at the sweep. I think they can take 5 of 6 from the Mariners/Astros and who knows... a week from today they could be only two games under .500 on July 1st staring at a 4-game set against STL - who isn't good against lefties - with Wolf, Davis/Narveson, Parra, and Gallardo scheduled to take the mound. After that it's seven at home before the All-Star break.

 

Plenty of time. For now I think Narveson goes to the pen, Braddock down to AAA for more seasoning - from what I've seen he could stand to work on his control a bit. Let's see where they are at the All-Star break.

[sheethead]

If the Crew can handle the Mariners/Astros at home (take 5 or 6), next week's four game set in St. Louis will be a season-defining series. Take two or more in St. Louis and this team may be able to hang in there.

[Invader3K]

I am definitely glad that the Brewers are playing better baseball and have a small win streak going. My biggest fear, though, is that come mid-July, they will be hovering around .500. Melvin will sit on his hands and not sell anyone off, but at the same time not make any significant moves to help the team get into real playoff contention.

[logan82]

We may be able to hang in there but even winning 5 of the next 6 games probably only gains us two games since STL is likely to go at least 3-3 during that time.A split against STL gains us nothing. That would still leave us 6.5 back. It doesn't seem like much but 6.5 games is still a huge lead and we have to get past STL and CIN and we are even further back in the wild card.

 

At this point STL and CIN would both have to go .500 the rest of the way and we would have to win at a .589 clip just to tie them by the end of the season.Only 4 teams are winning at that rate so far this year. Texas, New York Yankees, Boston and Tampa Bay. We don't have the talent of any of those teams. Possible yes, but highly unlikely since our team probably has the talent of a .500 team.

 

We are out of it and the sooner Doug starts making moves the better I will feel about it.