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Concerned about Prince Fielder

AJAY

By AJAY,
in Milwaukee Brewers Talk

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monty57 ACL Brewers

monty57

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I agree, but apparently Ken "Iron Fist" Macha won't do it. I really don't get Macha. He tramples on some players and bends over for others. Last year, he sat Braun a number of times late in the season when he was trying for 200 hits and to move up the "youngest player HR" list (not to mention his treatment of Gamel), but he wouldn't sit Kendall and won't sit Fielder. I promised myself I wouldn't go on anit-Macha rants, so I'll stop :-)

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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monty57 ACL Brewers

monty57

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I'll never listen to Bill & Brian again :-)

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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afeter Draft Eligible

afeter

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Prince Fielder:

 

PA AB H 2B 3B HR BB HBP SO BA OBP SLG OPS BABIP
RISP, 2010 83 64 10 0 0 1 14 5 16 .156 .349 .203 .553 .208
Projected 83 64 18 3 0 4 9 1 14 .284 .381 .544 .925 .365

His projected numbers are just his CHONE updated projection. We'd expect slightly different numbers from any batter w/RISP but it's good enough for this purpose.

 

What I see is in a paltry 83 PA w/RISP, he's gotten 8 less hits than expected. He's striking out about the same as you would expect but he's getting walked and hit a lot more. His BABIP is much lower than expected and he's had almost no extra base hits w/RISP.

 

It could be because of the stress of becoming a free agent in 16 months (he apparently had no such pressure last year, since he had an OPS of 1.049 w/RISP?). It can't be ruled out But it could so very easily just be random chance. In sports and in life, people are often underestimating how much random variance affects the numbers. Some see a split like this and think it's impossible to have happened randomly. I think, "Looking at the top three hitters for each team in the league, what are the odds that one of them gets 8 less hits than expected over 83 PAs w/RISP in a given year?"

rluz, you are the opposite of philosophers. they search for reason, you try and prove no reason exists.

 

 

 

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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rluz, you are the opposite of philosophers. they search for reason, you try and prove no reason exists.

 

I use stats to search for reason all the time. That doesn't mean I always find it. Some things are just unprovable.

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JohnBriggs12 Biloxi Shuckers

JohnBriggs12

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Fielder's come to the plate with one runner on 121 times. He's come up with two runners on 36 times, and 6 times he's come up with the bases loaded.

 

My math shows that's a total of 211 men on base when Fielder's hitting. He's driven in a grand total of 14 of them (6.6%). In his 163 plate appearances with men on, he's hit 2, count em, 2 HR. By contrast, in 149 PA with nobody on, he has 11 HR. Last year by comparison, Fielder batted with 507 runners on base. He drove in 95 of those runners (18.7%).

 

Sure he's walked 25 of those times, and that's led to some runs too, but come on, 14 out of 211 driven in? That's a horrific ratio.

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stalton First Round Pick

stalton

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G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS

Batting 3rd 16 61 7 15 1 0 4 5 11 12 0 0 .246 .370 .459 .829

Batting 4th 53 193 34 51 9 0 9 22 37 51 1 0 .264 .406 .451 .857

 

FWIW It seems like Prince is getting more walks and HR's in the 3 hole versus clean-up.

 

Yes Small Sample, by 61 AB isn't 6

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logan82 Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

logan82

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61 AB isn't 610 either. I would say it is more likely that he was moved into the 3 hole when he was hitting better not that he is hitting better because he is in the 3 hole. Those stats are trivia as opposed to showing a cause/effect relationship.

Fan is short for fanatic.

I blame Wang.

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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Batting 3rd:11 BB in 77 PA = .143 BB/PA

Batting 4th: 37 BB in 239 PA = .155 BB/PA

 

It doesn't really apply here since Prince has actually done better in his normal position but this stuff always comes up. Take a veteran lead off guy who projects to have a .800 OPS and watch him struggle for a month to the tune of a .650 OPS. What is your projection for him going forward? Pretty much still .800. A manager who knows better than to be reactionary will let the player continue. A manager that feel like he has to do something(!) might move him to 7th for the next month. When the guy predictably hits close to his projected OPS the next month, the level headed manager can point to his non-move as evidence not to overreact. The reactionary manager can puff his chest up and say something about how the vet was just putting too much pressure on himself and needed a break leading off to get his stroke back.

 

Geoff Jenkins effect.

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