Concerned about Prince Fielder

[sheethead]

I don't know, maybe. But he is striking out at a very similar rate, which appears to show he is still making plenty of contact. Lots of fly outs, which leads me to believe he is just always trying to hit home runs.

 

The difference in the splits is just so massive, I don't see what could possibly explain it.

[chickinbrickin]

I personally never thought Fielder was a clutch player. The mojority of his HRs and RBI seem to come in blowout wins and losses. I know he has had his share of big hits, but more often than not he fails when the team needs him most. With that said, I hope he keeps this power surge going so we can get top dollar when he gets traded.

 

I would say I am more concerned with Brauns play over the past month. I can't remeber the last time I have seen his average below .310 not to mention .300.

[TooLiveBrew]

Circa 2008:

 

I personally never thought [A-Rod] was a clutch player. The majority of his HRs and RBI seem to come in blowout wins and losses.

[RockCoCougars]

Prince w/ nobody on base (114 AB): .333/.449/.684/1.133

 

Prince w/ somebody on base (119 AB): .202/.349/.235/.585

 

This doesn't even seem possible!

Are you sure that those aren't Cameron's numbers from last year? I guess someone had to pick up his mantle.

[endaround]

I personally never thought Fielder was a clutch player. The mojority of his HRs and RBI seem to come in blowout wins and losses. I know he has had his share of big hits, but more often than not he fails when the team needs him most. With that said, I hope he keeps this power surge going so we can get top dollar when he gets traded.

 

I would say I am more concerned with Brauns play over the past month. I can't remeber the last time I have seen his average below .310 not to mention .300.

Fielder was 2nd in WPA last year to Pujols. So no.

[rluzinski]

As End pointed out, Fielder did great in high leverage situations last year and so far this year, hasn't. As is usual, the most likely explanation for that curious split is dumb luck.

[dadofandrew]

Anytime you start looking at splits of under 150 AB's, you're going to have plenty of small sample goofiness.

[Tbadder]

Braun and Fielder are fine. The only bad thing is that Fielder is lowering his trade value, which hurts the Crew.

[JohnBriggs12]

It was pointed out during the Angel telecast that Fielder is dead last in the NL with runners in scoring position (.156). He's slugging just .203 in those situations. With RISP and two out, he's worse (3 for 30, all singles).

 

I doubt pitchers are pitching him any differently than they did last year in those situations when he was fine (.296 w/RISP and .612 SP, and .343 with RISP and 2 out). Clearly Prince is putting extra pressure on himself in those situations to his detriment. He knows his next contract will be based on run production and that means driving in runs.

[sheethead]

Clearly Prince is putting extra pressure on himself in those situations to his detriment. He knows his next contract will be based on run production and that means driving in runs.

 

I believe this has something to do with it. The variance is way too big to contribute it all to dumb luck. There has to be another variable(s) at play here.

[FVBrewerFan]

If anything, you would expect him to have better pitches to hit with runners on base. With bases empty, pitchers would be more careful and willing to walk him. I do notice that he is hitting more cloud piercing fly balls than in the past, maybe indicating he is trying to hit the ball out of the park in RBI situations. Just hard to believe he's a distant 4th in RBI on hte team.

[rluzinski]

Hundreds of players in the league with dozens of possible splits to look at and baseball fans never want to attribute any of the goofy ones to random variance. Fielders split could EASILY be random. And I will continue to claim that is the most likely explanation as everything else is just blind speculation. This is like no meat thing all over again.

 

It's like sitting around a blackjack table and having people explain to me that 3 consecutive blackjacks by the dealer couldn't POSSIBLY be random chance.

[Invader3K]

Hundreds of players in the league with dozens of possible splits to look at and baseball fans never want to attribute any of the goofy ones to random variance. Fielders split could EASILY be random. And I will continue to claim that is the most likely explanation as everything else is just blind speculation. This is like no meat thing all over again. It's like sitting around a blackjack table and having people explain to me that 3 consecutive blackjacks by the dealer couldn't POSSIBLY be random chance.

Yes, but we saw similar numbers from Prince in 2008 under similar circumstances. That was my point earlier.

 

 

[sheethead]

It's like sitting around a blackjack table and having people explain to me that 3 consecutive blackjacks by the dealer couldn't POSSIBLY be random chance.

 

I don't see a correlation between blackjack and baseball. A baseball player's productive outcome is not based on a set of possible outcomes effected by past occurrences (four aces are already out, therefore leaving no chance a blackjack can occur on the next hand). There are other variables at play other than just luck, like intestinal fortitude.

[mletto157]

Unless you are playing with friends at your own house, I've never seen a blackjack game with only 4 aces...

[mletto157]

All Russ was trying to say is for some reason people just don't like to believe in luck... I don't know why that is, but everyone likes to believe someone is in control of a given outcome; whether it's at the blackjack table or in a baseball game. The fact is if you took the time to look around the league at different splits, home/away, grass/turf, night/day, empty bases/men on/RISP/late & close... there will be a TON of randomly high splits. And in 90+% of those cases it is just random dumb luck.

[rluzinski]

Prince Fielder:

 

	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	HBP	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
RISP, 2010	83	64	10	0	0	1	14	5	16	.156	.349	.203	.553	.208
Projected	83	64	18	3	0	4	9	1	14	.284	.381	.544	.925	.365

His projected numbers are just his CHONE updated projection. We'd expect slightly different numbers from any batter w/RISP but it's good enough for this purpose.

 

What I see is in a paltry 83 PA w/RISP, he's gotten 8 less hits than expected. He's striking out about the same as you would expect but he's getting walked and hit a lot more. His BABIP is much lower than expected and he's had almost no extra base hits w/RISP.

 

It could be because of the stress of becoming a free agent in 16 months (he apparently had no such pressure last year, since he had an OPS of 1.049 w/RISP?). It can't be ruled out But it could so very easily just be random chance. In sports and in life, people are often underestimating how much random variance affects the numbers. Some see a split like this and think it's impossible to have happened randomly. I think, "Looking at the top three hitters for each team in the league, what are the odds that one of them gets 8 less hits than expected over 83 PAs w/RISP in a given year?"

[sheethead]

Unless you are playing with friends at your own house, I've never seen a blackjack game with only 4 aces...

I have played single deck BJ in many casinos.

 

All Russ was trying to say is for some reason people just don't like to

believe in luck.

 

Its not just about believing in luck, which I do very much. Its about believing luck explains EVERYTHING that can't be explained by what you see with the naked eye. Also, I used PA with runners on base, which shows a bigger deviation from the mean than just looking at his smaller amount of PA with RISP.

[monty57]

I just think that since over 20% of the time up there he's either being walked or hit by a pitch, Prince is just so worried about how wild the pitchers get when he's up with runners in scoring position that he can't get comfortable in the box :-)

 

Seriously, looking at those numbers and not seeing where the actual pitches have been, it's possible that pitchers are working around him, which could lead to Prince going out of the zone after pitches, which could lead to worse numbers. I'm sure there's a site somewhere that shows what pitches Fielder is swinging at that could validate or invalidate this theory pretty easily, but I don't know where to find it.

[sheethead]

It can't be ruled out But it could so very easily just be random chance.

 

Uhhhh, this is all I ever say. But its always an argument. It could be that Prince's hemorrhoids only flare up when there are runners on base. Not likely, but there sure is a possibility.

it's possible that pitchers are working around him, which could lead to

Prince going out of the zone after pitches, which could lead to worse

numbers.

 

This would go against the luck theory.

[rluzinski]

Sheethead, you said:

"The variance is way too big to contribute it all to dumb luck. There has to be another variable(s) at play here. "

 

That just isn't true. As I've said multiple times, I don't know why Prince has a large RISP split this year but it could most certainly be simply random chance. This is not some one in a billion occurrence that NEEDS some other explanation. It's fun to speculate but none of us will ever know if it's luck or something else.

[sheethead]

This is not some one in a billion occurrence that NEEDS some other explanation. It's fun to speculate but none of us will ever know if it's luck or something else.

 

That's true, and it could very well be all random chance. I do get the feeling he's probably pressing a bit with runners on base, and my evidence would be the emotional release he had in the dugout after that home run with a runner on last night. Whether that actually affects his at bats is all speculation, as you said.

[djoctagone]

In the short-term, should the Brewers give him a few days off?

how about having him serve as dh as the brewers try to sweep the angels? i can understand how the brewers didn't have an alternate at first base in minneapolis, but with edmonds back, prince should have gotten more games in as the designated hitter.

[joepepsi]

How about playing Inglett today at 2B, Counsell at ss, and Edmonds at 1B?

[monty57]

In the short-term, should the Brewers give him a few days off?

how about having him serve as dh as the brewers try to sweep the angels? i can understand how the brewers didn't have an alternate at first base in minneapolis, but with edmonds back, prince should have gotten more games in as the designated hitter.

I agree that would be a good idea, but the announcers last night said that Prince won't DH. He wants to play the field.