Concerned about Prince Fielder

[AJAY]

I am very concerned about how Prince Fielder has struggled when hitting with runners on base. He only has 22 RBI and it's already the middle of June. When he does hit a homerun, it's usually a solo shot that rarely seems timely in nature. I can't recall the last time he had a big game or a big clutch hit in a key situation. It seemed like last season, he was hitting three-run homeruns all the time. This year, that magic and aura seems gone.

 

I am not only worried because it is hurting the team, but also because it is killing his trade value in case the Brewers feel the need to move him. Even if the Brewers decide to extend him, I don't have a good feel for what he is worth considering how little he is producing this year. The drop-off in production is quite confusing in terms of what to expect over the course of a longer-term contract. Is this an aberration? Or is this the start of a decline?

 

In the short-term, should the Brewers give him a few days off? Should he be dropped in the batting order temporarily? Will being dropped in the batting order rattle his confidence or affect his relationship with management? Is he playing with injury? Is he out of shape?

 

Just to be clear, I like Prince Fielder and I don't mean to sound like I am venting. I am just concerned (in a supportive kind of way)

 

What are your thoughts?

[TooLiveBrew]

He's been very frustrating this season, and frankly a season like this is Exhibit A of why the Brewers should absolutely not pony up the kind of money he's seeking for an extension. I hate that it's killing his trade value, too.

[logan82]

Does Fielder get added to the list of guys we should have sold high on but didn't?

[RockCoCougars]

He's also hurting his value on the free agent market as well. Unless he goes on an ungodly tear for the rest of the season, he's not sniffing 100 RBI or even 30 homers. Maybe he will be amenable to considering a long term deal at this point. That being said- as others have said, with the Brewers luck, he will probably stink up the joint for the rest of the season, hurting his trade value and then have a career season next year. Maybe he's like a hitting Bret Saberhagen and will have a down year every year that ends in an even number.

[DougJones43]

Does Fielder get added to the list of guys we should have sold high on but didn't?

I don't think that would really be fair. It would have been hard to deal him two full years before free agency. Assuming he would have even hit close to what we normally expect, I was figuring the trading deadline this year, or at the latest the offseason would have been the ideal time to deal him. A full year to year-and-a-half of Fielder should have been able to net us a great return. There is absolutely no way Melvin could have expected him to tank this much. Hopefully he gets hot real soon.

 

What I'm worried about is holding onto him until the trading deadline next year under some false hope that we'll contend, and then have to trade him for peanuts.

[logan82]

I don't think that would really be fair. It would have been hard to deal him two full years before free agency.

 

We had a pretty good idea we needed almost everything to go right this year for us to have just a chance at the playoffs so we were realistically looking at a team that would probably finish in the low 80's for wins this year and next. If you are not realistically going to compete for the playoffs you might as well make trades that will help you into the playoffs in the future. We knew Fielder would want a crazy amount of money and even if he didn't, he is so close to FA that he would probably just play out his contract.

 

By the way, I absolutely hate all the "we should have sold high" complaints.

There is absolutely no way Melvin could have expected him to tank this much.

 

Have to agree with that. The same could be said of many of our players this year unfortunately. Even with my belief that Fielder would not duplicate last year's numbers I still guessed he would put up at least a .900 OPS and he still might.

[geddymd73]

It has been pretty obvious that Fielder will not be traded this year, so his production really isn't an issue on that front. The demand is not there, and nobody will be offering what we really need. If there were such a demand, there should have been hints or offers in the past off-season when we clearly had a lot of needs. The best move is to let Fielder finish his current contract and take the draft picks presented to us (either 1st round picks or compensatory) after some team picks him up in free agency. I truly believe that Melvin cannot find any better compensation in a trade as compared to what can be picked up in the draft. Going to the draft will also allow the club to alleve the bloated payroll as well, even if the picks do not pan out. However unlikely it may be, I would find it prudent for the training staff to make sure he was healthy come the end of 2011, and avoid another Ben Sheets type of blunder.

[Invader3K]

After how badly the team got screwed over with "compensation picks" when Sabathia and Sheets left, I'm not interested in seeing the same thing happen with Fielder.

 

I blame Boras and Fielder himself for his poor play this year. My guess is he's pressing, trying to inflate his numbers to help his leverage in getting a monster payday. In the past it seems like he's played better when he hasn't had to worry about money (complained before '08 and had a down year, then got a big contract before '09 and had a great season).

 

In the meantime he probably should be moved down in the order. He simply isn't performing like a cleanup or #3 hitter right now.

 

Edit: And yes, I absolutely don't want to see the Brewers sign him to some huge and irresponsible extension. We're bad right now with him, we can be bad without him tying up 20-30% of the payroll. Let him be some other team's franchise crippling mistake.

[monty57]

The best move is to let Fielder finish his current contract and take the draft picks presented to us (either 1st round picks or compensatory) after some team picks him up in free agency. I truly believe that Melvin cannot find any better compensation in a trade as compared to what can be picked up in the draft. Going to the draft will also allow the club to alleve the bloated payroll as well, even if the picks do not pan out.

 

I'll have to disagree here, as I feel letting him walk for draft picks would be the worst outcome. If you are worried about payroll concerns, first the "bloated payroll" will become "unbloated" after this season when around $40-50MM will come off the books, even if Fielder is on the team. Also, trading Fielder for minor leaguers would be much less expensive than letting him play out his contract and drafting players. In the former scenario, there would be no cost other than the minor leaguers' salaries, probably totaling less than $100k/year. If we keep Fielder, we're on the hook to pay him somewhere in the $15MM range next season, and then we'd have to pay our draft picks a couple million to sign. If you trade him this season, you're also clipping off $6MM or so in salary there, so I'd guess keeping him until the end of next season would cost $25MM or so more than trading him by this year's trade deadline. Really, I'm more worried about the fact that we could end up not getting a 1st rounder (see Sheets and Sabathia), and even if we do get extra picks, those picks will have much less chance of making a difference in the majors than someone we trade for.

 

I have to agree with most of the posters here that Fielder will be traded at some point, hopefully when he will bring the most value to the Brewers. I hope other GMs look beyond this year and realize that this is the same person who was the youngest ever to hit 50 HRs. I personally think this year is a mix of two things. First, pithcers are working around him (which is why he's got a .400 OBP) and not giving him much to hit. Since he wants to validate the $200MM contract talk, he's now starting to swing at pitches out of the zone, notably the high fastball. I really think Prince gets caught up in the contract talk. His worst season to date was when he was upset about Melvin locking him in at $600k instead of the $900k he wanted in arby year three. He made public how happy he was to get his two-year deal, and hit well last year. Now he's struggling when contract talks are going on again.

 

His trade value should still be pretty high, so I hope the Brewers are able to trade him soon.

[sheethead]

Fielder may end up with the least clutch .900 OPS in the history of the franchise. I blame Boras and $200 million.

[twobrewers]

My guess is he's pressing, trying to inflate his numbers to help his leverage in getting a monster payday. In the past it seems like he's played better when he hasn't had to worry about money (complained before '08 and had a down year, then got a big contract before '09 and had a great season).

I couldn't agree more. Fielder plays his best when he is carefree.

 

I think the loss of Cameron might have hurt as well. Cameron was a great veteran presence that helped keep the clubhouse worry free through tough times.

[TheCrew07]

By the way, I absolutely hate all the "we should have sold high" complaints.

Yea well I really hate the "Melvin did everything he could defense" and attributing failure to bad luck instead of poor decision making, apparently even after that long PM you didn't bother to respond to it's still clear you don't get what we're saying.

 

No one has said we needed to sell high on everyone, what people have been saying is we need to sell high on 1 or 2 players along the way for pitching, or we need to actually trade for top of the rotation talent with longevity when opportunities to make trades presented themselves. All the whining about selling high has gotten over the top, let it go. Trading for rentals, signing relievers, and signing aging players hasn't put this team over the top and won't put this time team over the top, it's not bad luck, it's a poor management philosophy.

 

We need to keep building and thinking long term, Billy Beane said it best. At our best we've been just good enough to compete, but not good enough to win anything. The rotation just hasn't stacked up well against the other teams in the postseason, and even after trading for Sabathia it took a 2nd consecutive Mets collapse for this team to get into the post season.

 

Blez: Especially when the fan base is used to success.

 

Beane:

Exactly. I’ve always said you’re either building something that’s

special or you have something that’s special. In between is just no

man’s land. That was really it. I felt like as good as the players

were that we traded, we need a lot of good players to create something

long-term.

I don't think Beane really practices what he preaches though, so it's easier said than done to accomplish this, but Tampa has proven it can be done. I'm not into good enough... maybe you are, I'm not going to tell anyone what they need to believe. However, I've taken it on the chin repeatedly around here challenging Melvin's philosophies over the last 2 years, but I think the results have ultimately backed up my theory that Melvin has quit progressing this team forward since 2006. The team only gotten better because the young players got better, not because Melvin kept working to move the team and organization forward. We needed pitching that we haven't gotten to this point and if we don't get we'll end up right back where we started in 2006.

 

The only reason the 2010 version of the Brewers has played better of late is that injuries and ineffectiveness forced management to use the younger players, and they've been more productive. He's been spending money to just spend money with predictable results.

[theavrock]

Can someone logically explain why Boras is to blame for Fielder not playing up to expectations?

 

The guy isn't playing well, but Fielder has always been a notoriously slow starter (I know this isn't just a slow start anymore), but he goes in streaks. I'll be shocked if he doesn't get on one of those streaks and still end up with 100 RBI's and 30 HR's with a 900 OPS.

[Invader3K]

Because any other agent would probably look at the potential barren wasteland market that is out there for Fielder after 2011, and let Fielder sign a long term extension. Boras simply refuses to do that, even if it is bad for his client in the long run. He doesn't look at each client individually, he looks at his client list as a "portfolio." If one gets burned, he doesn't care; as long as he keeps coming out ahead in the long run.

[greeg35]

Prince hired Boras to do that. Prince seems to thrive on personal tranquility and that is something Boras places no value on. Either Prince doesn't recognize that in himself, doesn't realize that money is the only thing Boras values, or wants it this way for some reason.

[theavrock]

Because any other agent would probably look at the potential barren wasteland market that is out there for Fielder after 2011, and let Fielder sign a long term extension. Boras simply refuses to do that, even if it is bad for his client in the long run. He doesn't look at each client individually, he looks at his client list as a "portfolio." If one gets burned, he doesn't care; as long as he keeps coming out ahead in the long run.

I see what you're saying but it didn't really answer my question. Prince knows that he is going to get paid very good money to play baseball somewhere, whether it be in MKE or elsewhere. He pays him to do that so that he can focus on baseball. If he can't focus on baseball its his fault not Boras'.

I hate Boras' tactics as much as the next guy, but it shouldn't influence the way he plays baseball.

[DHonks]

I for one don't think Fielder's value has dropped at all. Look at his achievements thus far in his young life. He's had a very good career thus far, and it will only get better.

 

I do believe he is hurting the team this year, and I wish Macha would find the time to give both him and Braun a few days off. We've all struggled in sports, and sometimes the best thing to get over those slumps is to clear your mind for a few days. I know it worked for me in golf.

[crewcrazy]

He's also hurting his value on the free agent market as well. Unless he goes on an ungodly tear for the rest of the season, he's not sniffing 100 RBI or even 30 homers.

For what it's worth, FanGraphs has him hitting 23 HR and 76 RBI the rest of the season, for season totals of 33 and 98 (before today's solo HR). That'd be a very solid year, although a bit disappointing after last year's numbers (which may well prove to be his career year).

[Invader3K]

Maybe he read this thread. Gigantic solo home run just a minute ago.

[craigharmann]

I'm concerned that he's starting to get angry......YOU DON'T LIKE PRINCE WHEN HE'S ANGRY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[logan82]

Yea well I really hate the "Melvin did everything he could defense" and attributing failure to bad luck instead of poor decision making, apparently even after that long PM you didn't bother to respond to it's still clear you don't get what we're saying.

 

I get what you are saying, I just disagree and for some reason you continue to think it is a position that people only take if they don't put any thought into it. Nobody ever attributed it all to bad luck or said it wasn't Melvin's fault. We just believe that there are limited options and without knowing what Melvin was offered for players refuse to deem him a bad GM. We disagree with you. Why is it so hard for you to accept we just have a differing opinion and you are not going to convince most of us otherwise despite your constant posts about how Melvin failed to get us Impact Pitching?

 

All the whining about selling high has gotten over the top, let it go

 

Yes it has gotten over the top. I don't think any one person is complaining about not selling high on every single player but collectively every player that has a down year inevitably leads to "we should have traded him last year."

[RockCoCougars]

All the whining about selling high has gotten over the top, let it go

 

Yes it has gotten over the top. I don't think any one person is complaining about not selling high on every single player but collectively every player that has a down year inevitably leads to "we should have traded him last year."

I agree. It's kind of hard to trade a 25ish year old guy who is coming off an All Star season like Hardy and Hart. You have to have some faith that they are going to continue to prove, and flipping them for an unproven starter is not going to make much of the fan base too happy. Those moves are very risky, especially with a team shortly removed from the playoffs with a young core. The Brewers just seem to have had a bad run of luck with one year wonder type guys lately. That said, you can't trade every young guy coming off a good season, expecting that he's going to suck thereafter. Usually guys in their 20's continue to improve, not fall of the face of the earth.

 

Frankly, I think that 'buying high' with guys like Suppan and Wolf has been a bigger problem for the Brewers anyway.

[bani1717]

Kind of a side point, but Hart may have fallen off the face of the earth, but then a few weeks ago he decided to crawl back up. (Hart's actually hit 17 HR on 50 hits this year. He must've talked to Russel Branyan.)

 

Anyways, if Corey Hart can do that, Fielder certainly can dig out of his "slump" and get "good" again.

[sheethead]

Prince w/ nobody on base (114 AB): .333/.449/.684/1.133

 

Prince w/ somebody on base (119 AB): .202/.349/.235/.585

 

This doesn't even seem possible!

[Invader3K]

Is the difference in those splits possibly due to pitchers working Prince differently when runners are on base?