Bad Luck or Bad Team?

[AJAY]

I am just appalled at how everyone except Gallardo, Hart, and McGehee have significantly regressed. I can't remember the last time Braun and / or Fielder hit a big clutch homerun with runners on base. Those two used to be explosive and were big-time RBI machines. What the heck happened to them?

 

Hoffman, Hawkins, Wolf, and Davis have fallen so badly that it's incredibly scary. I don't understand this either. I feel bad for Doug Melvin because I don't think he had any way of predicting all this. I also worry about Axford being over-used.

 

I really don't have any answers. Will firing Macha help? They badly need a shakeup to put some life back into this team.

[TheCrew07]

How can you feel bad for Melvin when he signed a bunch of players all over 34 years old? He created this mess.

[DougJones43]

Hoffman, Hawkins, Wolf, and Davis have fallen so badly that it's incredibly scary.

When players are old there's a big risk they will decline sharply and suddenly, get hurt, or both. Melvin seems to be behind the curve in realizing that since the steroid era effectively ended, you're not going to see many players ages 33-42 give you real reliable production -- yet he keeps spending gobs of money on these guys. He is creating a strong track record for himself of not being able to tell when players (usually pitchers) are at the end of the line. These guys last big payday always come from Melvin, and more often than not they don't even remain useful through the entire contract. Suppan. Gagne. Looper. Hawkins. Wolf. Davis. Hoffman. The list is long.

 

With Suppan's contract finally coming off the books next year, we will then owe Wolf for two more years. One aged ineffective veteran contract replaced by another. It is disheartening to see the same mistakes repeated. A market like the Brewers cannot afford to waste as much money as we have wasted, and continue to waste.

 

It's not some unforeseeable streak of bad luck. There's a reason most other teams passed on all these guys. If the organization had taken it's chances with more young, cheap players with upside, we probably wouldn't be any worse -- and the future (particularly financially) would look a lot better.

[rluzinski]

When players are old there's a big risk they will decline sharply and suddenly, get hurt, or both.

 

Aging curves show the average drop off of talent. It's not like there's some cliff that 33 year olds fall off of. Wolf projected to be a little above average this year and below average in his final year. Suppan projected to be average his first year and well below average his final year.

[TheCrew07]

That's the entire problem right there. The average becomes a curve, but that has very little to do with what will happen with any individual player. Some players hit a wall and call it quits, some slowly fade like Suppan, sometimes it happens at 33, sometimes at 38. Others will suffer significant injury affecting their bat speed, range of motion, pitching velocity... whatever. The risk of injury and performance decline isn't always linear, the older players get the more exponential the risks become, especially in regards to aging pitchers. Someone did a study, it might of been HBT, but it was years ago now looking at injury frequency in relation to age and once a player reached their mid 30s the likely hood of injury increased exponentially with each successive year. If I can find the article I'll link it later.

 

Average regression is a useful tool in helping to try to project a given player's drop off from year to year, but when a player falls off the more than the average it's not unlucky or random, it's just life and the way things happen for certain players. Just like when a player out performs the curve he's not lucky, how is a mathematical formula ever going to accurately predict results for any human being accounting for each and every unique physiology?

 

Take Hoffman for example, with each successive year the odds become higher that he's going to lose it, the human body just doesn't maintain that long. The farther we get from a player's peak performance years the greater the risk of significant decline or injury and the less his 3 year rolling average means. Even he recovers to have a successful 2nd half of the season, it's still the beginning of the end for him, this will be the worst statistical year in his career regardless what he does from this point forward. He's just not getting enough movement or location on his pitches in a consistent enough manner to get hitters out. What's the reason it happened to him at 42 and not 36? I don't think we have those answers in my lifetime but down the road we'll figure out enough about the human body to have definitive answers to these questions.

[Invader3K]

I am just appalled at how everyone except Gallardo, Hart, and McGehee have significantly regressed. I can't remember the last time Braun and / or Fielder hit a big clutch homerun with runners on base. Those two used to be explosive and were big-time RBI machines. What the heck happened to them?

Braun looks like he might be playing through an injury (as suggested in another thread), and Fielder is probably letting his contract situation affect him. At least that's my theory.

 

As far as Melvin's terrible luck with pitching, I don't blame him entirely, as I don't remember anyone predicting Hoffman, Hawkins, Wolf, and Davis all declining so dramatically at the same time. However, at some point the GM has to be held accountable for his repeated mistakes.

[BrewCrewForever]

I to think Braun is bothered with some sort of injury. Most likely the elbow he got hit on by Tommy Hanson. I suppose he could be in a slump, but Braun has never been in a slump like this in his 4 years career that I can remember.

 

As for Fielder, yeah I think the future contract he is going to get might be effecting his performance.

[naivin]

The last time I remember Braun and Fielder hitting like this at the same time, Yost had Fielder in the three hole, and had Braun batting cleanup. Obviously, it is almost entirely psychological on their part, but that doesn't make it any less real. I have no doubt that moving them up and down the line up the way Macha has is having an impact. You hear current and former players say all teh time that they are much more comfortable, knowing they are going to be in a set spot in the order day in and day out. Lock Braun, Fielder, and McGehee into the 3-4-5 spots, and sink or swim, because tinkering the way Macha has is obviously not accomplishing anything. In fact, I am convinced its detrimental.

[sheethead]

I think the Brewers are a better team than their record, I still don't think they are a playoff caliber team though.

 

Playoffs? Playoffs? Are you kidding me? Playoffs? Don't talk about playoffs!

[JohnBriggs12]

This season is falling into the category of "everything that could go wrong is going wrong". It's the exact opposite of a team say coming out of nowhere and winning where "everything that could go right did". Rarely do either happen.

 

Much of what has gone wrong was foreseeable at least individually though. Old players break down and skills diminish. That virtually all have done this in the first 2 months of the season is collectively to a great degree, bad luck. A few breakdowns couldn't be predicted. Who would have guessed that Fielder and Braun would combine for less than an RBI per game after 59 games despite both being healthy save 3 games. Lots didn't expect Wolf to put up the numbers he did in 2009, but nobody expected him to be this bad.

 

The big question is can they recover from this and be a contender in 2011? On the positive side, they do clear a lot of salary off the books. At the same token, the same guy that built this mess, at this point is still in charge of finding the replacements. Also on the positive side is the failures have given some opportunities. I half seriously posted about a week into the season that Nashville might have a better bullpen than some major league teams. Little did I realize at the time, that one the bullpens it was better than was the Brewers. Now it is the Brewer bullpen.

 

Many point to the solution being the trade of Fielder. Unless we know what they're offered for Fielder though, we don't really know if that's a help or a hindrance. No turnaround is likely either unless Wolf at least returns to being average.

 

The obvious move that needs to be made (firing of Doug Melvin) isn't likely to happen. He's too close to the owner. So we can only hope that Melvin's luck turns around sharply.

[sheethead]

The obvious move that needs to be made (firing of Doug Melvin) isn't likely to happen. He's too close to the owner. So we can only hope that Melvin's luck turns around sharply.

 

I'm not so sure Melvin is completely safe. Wolf, Davis, Hawkins and Macha just might end up getting him fired. None of us are sure what Attanasio's threshold is, but it can't be unlimited can it?

[homer]

Been very unlucky on the injury front. I know some people think all 33 - 36 year olds fall off cliffs but usually people trend lower they don't just suck all of a sudden.

 

I had no problem with the off season moves. I did have a problem that the Brewers had to sign two free agent pitchers. Yes the brewers have been unlucky with injuries but they've made some poor trades too. I think trading two power bats for a closer and Layne Nix (?) was a bad move at the time. Melvin should always try and get a pitching nugget with every trade he makes. I'd rather he go for low A guys with upside than near ready average pitchers that profile and bottom of the rotation starters (i.e. Zach Jackson).

[WV Brew]

They are now 62-80 since July 2 of 2009. That's not bad luck, it's a bad team. People conveniently ignore the players performing above expectation which could be attributed to good luck. Brewers are one of only 7 teams above projected OPS in a down hitting year. That's unlikely to continue and Braun and McGehee are individually, at least until recently, also well above expectations. Let's not just look at where their luck has gone bad please.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

The Brewers pythagorean record is 25-34. Considering that their real record is 24-35, I'd say that we've gotten slightly unlucky, but not enough of a difference to complain that much about.

[sheethead]

I know some people think all 33 - 36 year olds fall off cliffs but usually people trend lower they don't just suck all of a sudden.

 

How many more examples do we need to see? Of course they can just suck all of a sudden. Is giving up five (5) home runs in 4+ innings bad luck? Its bad pitching.

[joepepsi]

They are 2-3 in extra inning games, 9-7 in one run games. So, in close games they haven't been unlucky. They are 9-15 in blowouts-games where the winning team wins by 5 or more runs. The Cardinals are 14-3 in blowouts. The Reds, 7-8.

 

The only way the Brewers have been unlucky is in the sense that the entire pitching staff, save maybe 3-4 pitchers, has been horrible. It seems strange that an entire staff could be this bad. You can blame it on age and questionable free agents, or bad luck, I suppose. I suspect it has something to do with a pitching coach that uses heavy handed techniques. Instead of playing to a pitcher's strengths, Peterson is like Mazzone; he forces his pitching philosophy on every pitcher.

 

In contrast, Maddux, according to baseball prospectus, is the type of pitching coach that preaches simple fundamentals, and detailed scouting reports on each opposing hitter.

[rluzinski]

That's the entire problem right there. The average becomes a curve, but

that has very little to do with what will happen with any individual

player. Some players hit a wall and call it quits, some slowly fade

like Suppan, sometimes it happens at 33, sometimes at 38.

And some 34 year olds have a career year. You seem to be suggesting that older players' projected performances have a higher level of uncertainty. I'm not sure that's true but if it is, that doesn't mean it's a bad value. The average is the average. If people think there's a mountain of 34 year olds blowing up, there's also a mountain of 34 year olds destroying the opposition.

[DougJones43]

If people think there's a mountain of 34 year olds blowing up, there's also a mountain of 34 year olds destroying the opposition.

None of the guys Melvin signed (with the exception of Hoffman who is now 42) ever really destroyed opposition. If he was signing dominant pitchers in their mid-30's it would be a different story. He doesn't. He's signing guys like Suppan and Doug Davis -- borderline players, not rich in talent. These guys need pretty much everything to go right in order to be successful, and the further they get up in age the more risk there is they will slip just enough to become very ineffective. It's an extremely fine line with guys like Jeff Suppan, Doug Davis, and others.

 

In addition to that, these guys need to have a solid defense behind them, or the risk for a meltdown becomes even more likely. Doug Davis would have a lot better results-oriented numbers this year if the defense behind him wasn't sub-standard. I just can't believe Melvin thought he could get away with these types of pitchers without at least making sure there were complimentary players backing them up.

[Ennder]

He's signing guys like Suppan and Doug Davis -- borderline players, not

rich in talent. These guys need pretty much everything to go right in

order to be successful,

 

Doug Davis has a career xFIP of 4.43 and his 3 year average isn't much worse.

Randy Wolf has a career xFIP of 4.30 and his 3 year average is about the same.

 

Suppan was a clear case of a mistake signing though and I can certainly see not liking the 3rd year of Wolf's contract. These guys aren't borderline players, they are right around average players. There is a big difference. Sometimes an old average player does well, sometimes poorly. Most of the complaints with these signings is backseat driving, there was no reason to expect them to tank but we have just been unlucky with their results.

[rluzinski]

Doug,

 

As I already mentioned, Suppan was a stupid signing because he only projected to be average for the first year of his contract. Davis was signed to a one year deal for peanuts and had a decent year last year. The Wolf signing wasn't great but not bad either.

 

You seem to be contendinh that we should expect, averagish older players to be either OK or terrible. Their projections represent their average expected performance, so how could that be true?

 

And for Melvin to find affordable starting pitchers who don't rely as much on defense, he needs to sign high strikeout, high walk flyball pitchers. Even then, I'm not sure how much that would help. Some you'd have to think.

[monty57]

And for Melvin to find affordable starting pitchers who don't rely as much on defense, he needs to sign high strikeout, high walk flyball pitchers. Even then, I'm not sure how much that would help. Some you'd have to think.

 

Chris Narveson fits that bill (career 106 K / 47 BB in 110.1 IP, 208 FB / 130 GB)

 

As you of course know, pitchers with high K/9 are very expensive on the open market, and for some reason people are calling for Narveson to be taken out of the rotation. Most players with a higher K/9 than Narveson (he's #35 in MLB) are not yet free agents. The only players in the majors with > 6 years exp and a higher K/9 than Narveson (min 40 IP) are: Dan Haren, Carlos Zambrano, Roy Oswalt, Rich Harden, Javier Vazquez, Cliff Lee, and Ryan Dempster.

 

For the record, Gallardo's #13 on the list with 9.22 k/9.

[sheethead]

Signing past their prime average pitchers seems to be a bad idea for any GM, but they are all doing it. Seems like it pays off less than 10% of the time.

[sheethead]

Garland, and to a smaller extent Ben Sheets, are the only ones I see working out this year. Even Lackey is a disappointment in Boston so far.

[DougJones43]

Most of the complaints with these signings is backseat driving

Although I thought we overpaid somewhat, and was never looking forward to the last year of the deal, I definitely thought Wolf would be much better than he has been. I still think he will rebound and am/was okay with the signing as a way to solidify the rotation.

 

The Davis signing I never really got however, and forcing Suppan into the rotation was unforgivable -- and that's not backseat driving because I along with many others would have preferred to see a rotation of Gallardo/Wolf/Parra/Bush/Narveson with Suppan in long relief and depth. Much more youth and upside with that rotation, not to mention Parra/Narveson mesh much better with our defensive shortcomings than Davis/Suppan. In addition to that, there is the $6.25M (including next year's buyout) we could have saved by not signing Davis.

 

Instead, Melvin and Macha plowed unnecessarily ahead with two soft-tossing old guys in the rotation, and the results were not exactly shocking. The rotation was bungled beyond belief since day 1 this season, and the results of that are still being felt right now.

[monty57]

I get the "soft tossing" label on Davis, that's what he is. Wolf hits 92, which isn't really "soft tossing" now that the steroids era is over, especially for a lefty. These days, it's asking a lot to expect to have a rotation that's full of guys who work in the mid-90s. We do have "soft tossers" in Bush and Davis, and Suppan was definitely a "soft tosser," but I think the phrase has just become Brewerfan.net lingo for any pitcher Melvin signs that doesn't work out.

 

I never foresaw Davis pitching as poorly as he has, and of course no one could've expected the injury he's suffering. Before the injury, I hoped he'd pick up his game and pitch well enough that someone in need of pitching would give up something for him at the trade deadline. Of course, that's not going to happen.