Do we really need to rebuild?

[logan82]

Every other good pitcher on that list will be over 30 next season, some

coming off of injuries like Webb. Who's a clear cut 1/2 outside of

Cliff Lee who will be 32? Can we get Lee on a 4 or 5 year deal?

 

I wouldn't even want Lee on more than a 3 year deal. I really don't like pitchers 35 and older.

 

You can probably take anybody halfway decent with a asterisk off that list. I didn't check into every player, I just copied the list off of Cot's.

[TheCrew07]

That list isn't updated yet because Cain signed a two year extension through 2012. So really the only guy is Lee.

I didn't catch that, thanks for the correction

[nate82]

Didn't Beckett also sign an extension or is close to signing one with the Red Sox?

 

Also the Yankees and Mets are already showing interest in Lee as a free agent acquisition so the Brewers would have to pony up for something like 5-years $90m or somewhere close to that. Vazquez and Webb maybe the best options for the Brewers but I would rather just not sign anyone at all and just go with the younger players and see what they can do. Rogers, Rivas, Narveson, Parra, etc... If the Brewers are going to spend something around the $100m mark I would rather it be for Prince than Lee.

[DougJones43]

That free agent list really brings some clarity to the fact that it is definitely not the answer. We're going to have to hope for the best with the guys we have (notably Parra and Narveson) and try to bring in some good prospects by trading Fielder, Hart, or both.

 

I'm very afraid that Attanasio and Melvin will not have the patience to go this route, and will continue to make the same mistake of looking for an immediate remedy to our pitching woes by overpaying an aging free agent.

[logan82]

If the Brewers are going to spend something around the $100m mark I would rather it be for Prince than Lee.

 

I would rather they do neither. If this year is showing us anything it should be that Fielder isn't going to make our break our team.

[greeg35]

I'm very afraid that Attanasio and Melvin will not have the

patience to go this route, and will continue to make the same mistake of

looking for an immediate remedy to our pitching woes by overpaying an

aging free agent.

This has been the problem all along. A team with a financial situation like the Brewers cannot afford short term thinking for very long. The CC deal was a calculated risk to make a run at the title; but we've been in "win now at all costs" since then. Doing that on a budget means overpaying for marginal players. Since we waited so long to shift our drafting philosophy toward pitching, those are the holes we needed to fill with mediocre guys. The sooner we get back to the original plan, the better. Unfortunately this lapse in philosophy resulted in wasted money and has likely cost us at least a couple of years if/until our minor league pitching starts producing at the major league level.

[monty57]

If we could get him on a Melvin-esque one year with an option deal, I wouldn't mind signing Javier Vazquez, as he's a strikeout pitcher, which is what we need with our shoddy defense. I also wouldn't mind them making a shot at trading for Dan Haren if the rumors are true that the Diamondbacks are looking to trade him. Other than that, we have Yo, Wolf, Parra, Narveson and Davis if we want him under contract and the first wave of young pitchers ought to be about MLB ready by the start of next season. Not to mention Capuano would probably sign back with us if we wanted him as a starter.

 

I'm very afraid that Attanasio and Melvin will not have the patience to go this route, and will continue to make the same mistake of looking for an immediate remedy to our pitching woes by overpaying an aging free agent.

 

I agree, and add to it that if we were to get an average-ish veteran starter, they would be locked into the rotation from day 1, and they'd put the young starters into the bullpen. The only way I want the Brewers to add another arm this offseason is if it is a true difference maker, #1/2 arm type, or if it is a solid young arm acquired in trade.

[LouisEly]

Who's your guy Louis?

 

The Brewers will have pitching coming up through the minors in two years, so they don't need a long-term deal. I'd take a one year deal on Webb if the medical report checks out, or a two year deal on Hudson or Lilly. It doesn't have to be a FA - it could be someone who is under contract or due a big arby raise from another team looking to shed payroll.

[trwi7]

Hudson isn't a free agent. He signed a three year deal with Atlanta in the offseason.

[TheCrew07]

You honestly think Lilly is a solid #2?

[LouisEly]

Outside of his 8.1 no-hit innings tonight, I'd say looking at what he's done the last 3.3 years he is.

 

Considering that there are 16 teams in the NL, is he one of the top 32 starters in the NL? Well, he's been in the top 32 in ERA each of the last 3.3 seasons (the worst being #27), and in the top 15 in three of the four. He's been in the top 15 in WHIP each of the last 3.3 years, and in the top 5 in three of the last four.

 

So... what's your criteria for a solid #2 starter?

[TooLiveBrew]

To me, the question should also contain, 'Is it reasonable to expect him to continue to be a #2 starter as he ages?' As he starts losing velocity, he's really going to get harder.

[logan82]

So... what's your criteria for a solid #2 starter?

 

 

Not old.

[monty57]

One concern with signing a free agent this offseason will be the length of contract. We have a lot of young pitching coming up, and I don't want someone in a situation like Suppan this year, where he's the worst pitcher on the staff, but he's getting paid the most, so he starts the year in the rotation. Granted, the bar should be higher in three or four years, but I will still want the best five pitchers out there.

 

Most decent free agent starters are going to get longer term deals, so if we sign someone to 3-4 years, he'd better have a good chance of still being one of our best five pitchers three or four years from now. In other words, I really hope we don't sign someone who's already in their 30's to a deal over two years unless that person if really good. Cliff Lee would probably be the only one who fits that criteria, and I don't think we'll probably be in the running for him. Right now, our best options for upgrading our rotation are: Trading Fielder for young SP, trading for someone with 2-3 years left on their contract or in arbitration, or simply waiting out our prospects (going with Yo, Wolf, Parra, Narveson, prospect next year and adding prospects as they're ready). I'm all for signing a strikeout pitcher like Vazquez to a one-year-with-option deal, but I don't think that's too likely.

 

I cautiously hope for one of the first two options, although there is definitely worry that the added pitcher won't be a difference maker and will simply work to block prospects.

[Boisebrewer]

I'm not sure if Mark and DM are capable of doing this, but instead of blowing cash on an overpriced pitcher next off season, I say we trade for someone (preferrably a youngish arm), like a Brandon Morrow, who will become a FA in the next couple years and keep the payroll down for the coming years. That money could also be used for a stretch run player if we are in it or even to go after some "unsignable" players in the draft. I'm just so frustrated with have $15 mil to spend in the offseason and we spend 10-12 on an old starting pitcher and the rest of it on an old reliever or bench player. I really don't mind a couple losing seasons as long as I see that there is a plan in place.

[nate82]

You honestly think Lilly is a solid #2?

Lilly was a solid #2 but not anymore.

 

Vazquez of all the free agents next year is probably the best #2 option and depending on the length of the contract I would be OK with the Brewers signing Vazquez. There is probably 3 open spots in the rotation next year and one of them will be taken by a free agent pitcher I am assuming and if it has to be a free agent I would it rather be Vazquez than anyone else on the market as long as the contract is no longer than 3-years. Not my ideal situation but something that I could live with if the Brewers decided on giving some money to a free agent pitcher. That would still leave open two spots for Parra, Rivas, Rogers, Butler, and Narveson.

[LouisEly]

As he starts losing velocity, he's really going to get harder.

Tell that to Jamie Moyer.

 

So... what's your criteria for a solid #2 starter?

 

Not old.

 

(see above)

 

Didn't know that 34 was old.

 

Lilly was a solid #2 but not anymore.

 

So a guy with a 2.90 ERA, .605 OPS-A, and 1.00 WHIP this year and a 3.10 ERA, .661 OPS-A, and 1.06 WHIP is "not anymore" a solid #2? Wow...

[logan82]

As he starts losing velocity, he's really going to get harder.

Tell that to Jamie Moyer.

 

So... what's your criteria for a solid #2 starter?

 

Not old.

 

(see above)

 

Didn't know that 34 was old.

One extreme example doesn't exactly prove anything. In sports, especially post steroid era, it is ancient.

[gobrew23]

So... what's your criteria for a solid #2 starter?

 

Not old.

Yeah, I certainly wouldn't want an old guy like Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter, Tim Hudson, Andy Pettitte or Ted Lilly pitching as the #2 for the Brewers.

EDIT:

 

Roy Halladay age 33 2010 stats: 8-4, 1.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP

Chris Carpenter age 35 2010 stats: 7-1, 2.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP

Tim Hudson age 34 2010 stats: 6-2, 2.43 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Andy Pettitte age 37 2010 stats: 8-1, 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

Ted Lilly, age 34 2010 stats: 2-5, 2.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

[MJLiverock]

I wouldn't exactly call Jamie Moyer a #2 starter, maybe on a team with pitching as bad as the Brewers but not in general and as was mentioned the one statistical anomoly of being able to stay in the leage at his age doesn't offset the argument.

 

The argument of "not old" should be augmented with "not washed up" or "not living on past glories" or "not coming off a season or seasons where they got by by their fingernails in a big ball park with a great defense, etc."

 

Those criteria may keep Melvin off the signing aging or aged pitchers with mediocre stuff and acting surprised when they age quickly in front of a weak defense, hitters ballpark and seemingly lose the ability to throw strikes as their BP pitches get hammered. The steroid era wasn't just for hitters - - how many aging pitchers benefitted from steroids or HGH and were able to keep pumping that mid 90's fastball or take the mound every five days without fatigue because of them. It is like a game of musical chairs and when the music stopped (sterooids) the Brewers may well be the ones left with out a chair or holding the bag (signing aging pitchers to longer deals or too much money in an era where pitchers will age faster than they did 5 years ago - - the anti money ball effect).

[logan82]

So... what's your criteria for a solid #2 starter?

 

Not old.

Yeah, I certainly wouldn't want an old guy like Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter, Tim Hudson, Andy Pettitte or Ted Lilly pitching as the #2 for the Brewers.

EDIT:

 

Roy Halladay age 33 2010 stats: 8-4, 1.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP

Chris Carpenter age 35 2010 stats: 7-1, 2.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP

Tim Hudson age 34 2010 stats: 6-2, 2.43 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Andy Pettitte age 37 2010 stats: 8-1, 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

Ted Lilly, age 34 2010 stats: 2-5, 2.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

And again you are pulling out a handful of players when the greater majority will not pitch well past the age of 32. This is like arguing pitchers can easily pitch 140 pitches a game because Nolan Ryan did it. Are any of those guys you listed realistically going to be available to us? My guess would be no. They are likely to be at the top of the class of free agents and paid more than we should be paying for players that age.

[TheCrew07]

Outside of his 8.1 no-hit innings tonight, I'd say looking at what he's done the last 3.3 years he is.

 

Considering that there are 16 teams in the NL, is he one of the top 32 starters in the NL? Well, he's been in the top 32 in ERA each of the last 3.3 seasons (the worst being #27), and in the top 15 in three of the four. He's been in the top 15 in WHIP each of the last 3.3 years, and in the top 5 in three of the last four.

 

So... what's your criteria for a solid #2 starter?

Just say no to FA pitching!

 

If my choices are limited to FA, I'd honestly rather sit still and wait on the youngsters as they will be a year closer than sign someone just to sign someone. However in the interests of participating in the exercise.

 

My criteria for the Brewers follows:

 

• Not a pitchability guy, I do not want an average FB or below average FB velocity. Average FB velocity around 87 is very poor for a RH I'd want his FB velocity >91 for this season
• ERA around 3.5
  
• K/9 over 7
• BB/9 under 3
• Someone's who's trends suggest they will be still be a top 3 pitcher in our rotation by the end of his contract
• Someone that Melvin doesn't immediately target as "our guy" and overpay for both in years and dollars. Id' be happy if he could just manage to buy wins at the market rate
  
• Someone who's less than 32 years old, I'd rather not sign another
  aging pitcher to a multi year contract when they are already in the
  exponential part of the injury curve

[joepepsi]

You want an All Star caliber pitcher. So does every other team. It is difficult to sign this caliber pitcher, assuming one is even available, without overpaying in both years and dollars. the Brewers have to raise this type of pitcher on the farm. Just as they did with Gallardo. Parra comes close to meeting the criteria.

[gobrew23]

So... what's your criteria for a solid #2 starter?

 

Not old.

Yeah, I certainly wouldn't want an old guy like Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter, Tim Hudson, Andy Pettitte or Ted Lilly pitching as the #2 for the Brewers.

EDIT:

 

Roy Halladay age 33 2010 stats: 8-4, 1.96 ERA, 1.02 WHIP

Chris Carpenter age 35 2010 stats: 7-1, 2.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP

Tim Hudson age 34 2010 stats: 6-2, 2.43 ERA, 1.16 WHIP

Andy Pettitte age 37 2010 stats: 8-1, 2.46 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

Ted Lilly, age 34 2010 stats: 2-5, 2.90 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

And again you are pulling out a handful of players when the greater majority will not pitch well past the age of 32. This is like arguing pitchers can easily pitch 140 pitches a game because Nolan Ryan did it. Are any of those guys you listed realistically going to be available to us? My guess would be no. They are likely to be at the top of the class of free agents and paid more than we should be paying for players that age.

I was simply replying to you saying that a #2 can't be old, which I completely disagree with. I just pulled a few players off the top of my head and I'm sure there are a bunch more out there. Clearly it is completely possible for an "old" pitcher to be not only a #2, but a #1.

 

"Are any of those guys you listed realistically going to be available to us?"

I agree that no they probably won't, but that wasn't your point. You simply said a #2 can't be old.

 

[trwi7]

It is difficult to sign the caliber pitcher, assuming one is even available, without overpaying in both years and dollars. the Brewers have to raise this type of pitcher on the farm. Just as they did with Gallardo.

Which is why he said just say no to FA pitching and if that was his only choice he would rather just sit and wait for the young guys to come up.