Do we really need to rebuild?

[uwisfan]

too much for what? With the $38M or whatever coming off the books, and the proven desire to pay in that 10-15 range (Lee, Coco, Hoffman, Gagne, Suppan, Cameron), there is no reason they couldnt hit that next level and bank it on one super arm instead of a bunch of "above average" guys.

[TheCrew07]

http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/ohwell.gif... When I brought up Lee it was a for instance type thing. I think we're better off trading for impact pitching prospects if possible than signing Lee. Signing Lee we're paying a premium for wins and hoping the contract doesn't blow up on us, I'd rather buy wins at a discount prior to free agency whenever possible. I honestly don't believe Melvin will trade for impact prospect pitching, and contrary to what others have posted, most any prospect pitcher with a full year in AA is MLB ready. So if my choices are another Wolf clone or Lee, I'd probably vote for option C, neither... but for this exercise I'd vote Lee.

 

 

[rluzinski]

Hasn't "protection" been pretty much statistically discredited? I guess you could argue that there is some sort of unquantifiable mental boost to a hitter knowing he has quality guys behind him, but it seems like it's quite small in terms of actual production.

 

Anyway, we have to remember that some guys like Rivas and Odorizzi may not be all that far off. If at least a couple more of our pitching prospects would finally pan out, we should be OK. Parra stepping up could also be huge.

It's probably too strong to say it's been discredited. There is little statistical evidence to support it. You would think there would be detectable evidence if the effect was large.

[DHonks]

Jumping in here, if the Brewers were to lock up Fielder or replace him with Gamel/Hart, we could buy time. Our prospects should hit AAA starting at the end of this year (meaning Gamel, Cain, Gindl, Green, Lawrie, Rogers, Periard, Rivas, et al will be a call away. Pushing some A and some A+ guys to AA next year would give us a very good immediate second wave of prospects, with our A and A+ rotations and outfields still being loaded with prospects.

[Ennder]

We are still in the process of the first rebuild, you don't just draft a few guys and say you are done with. Rebuilding a terrible franchise is a 10-15 year process, we aren't even at 10 years yet.

[TheCrew07]

Well Hunt has a timely piece on this topic for tomorrow's paper.

 

First of all, you can't draft Strasburg or Leake if they aren't available when you pick, that part of the article rubbed me the wrong way. No pitcher in this draft was comparable to Strasburg and the pitcher who could most likely pull a Leake in Pomeranz went #4, the Brewers drafted 14.

 

I do not believe a full rebuild is necessary, we need 2 good pitchers and we're right back in the hunt, 1 if Manny Parra finds himself. If we address the top of the rotation everything else will take care of itself with or without Fielder.

[logan82]

Except you aren't flipping Fielder for major league ready pitcher. Fielder could bring a guy who might be ready2nd half of next season to start pitchign in teh majors but will liekyl take that half a season to be decent.

I think you are probably right. I hope that they can get a pitcher who will contribute by the end of next year. I think almost no matter what we are not going to be in the playoff hunt in 2011. All of our impact pitching http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif is still more than a year out.

[FVBrewerFan]

I love McGehee, but I'm just not sold he can keep hitting like this, especially without Prince for protection

 

Players can protect other guys by hitting ahead of them? I'm not a big believer in protection in general, but this is a new angle on it to me.

Sure they can. Look at how many walks Fielder has this year, right ahead of McGehee. They are pitching around Prince to get to McGehee, which usually means runners at 1B and 2B, runners at the corners, etc. Now a pitcher can't afford to walk McGehee also, so they have to throw him strikes. And for a lot of pitchers, it means they have to rely on their fastball to throw strikes. That means more fastball strikes for McGehee to hit.

 

I'm sure this could be statistically proven or discredited if someone wanted to take the time. But any analysis would have to be based on individual situations. The Brewers line-up is different than the Reds, etc., and they are each handled differently by opposing staffs.

 

 

[NievesNoNO]

logan3825[/b]]

Invader3K[/b]]Hasn't "protection" been pretty much statistically discredited?

Yes it has or at the very most to have a minimal effect.

Statistics can pretty much be manipulated to show anything the author would like to show. Protection from the standpoint of how the pitcher chooses to work a hitter is real, however I'm guessing that the end results because of how the pitcher works a certain hitter might not fluctuate very much. At least not enough to show a statistically significant change. That said there is certainly a difference in hitting in front of the pitcher or hitting 3-5.

 

[Funketown]

logan3825[/b]]

Invader3K[/b]]Hasn't "protection" been pretty much statistically discredited?

Yes it has or at the very most to have a minimal effect.

Statistics can pretty much be manipulated to show anything the author would like to show.

Statistics can only 'show anything the author would like to show' if the readers do not understand statistics. Heck, I could probably pretty easily write a study that hot dogs cause leukemia (poor people tend to eat more hot dogs, poor people tend to have leukemia, so it must be the hot dogs!). Anyone who can think for themselves knows that study would be a load of crap.

[logan82]

Protection from the standpoint of how the pitcher chooses to work a hitter is real, however I'm guessing that the end results because of how the pitcher works a certain hitter might not fluctuate very much. At least not enough to show a statistically significant change. That said there is certainly a difference in hitting in front of the pitcher or hitting 3-5.

 

Pitchers are going to pitch to hitters how they are going to pitch to hitters regardless of who is hitting behind them unless they are ahead of the pitcher. They pitch around you a little more in front of the pitcher. Game situations may dictate a change in approach not because of who is hitting behind them. They are not pitching to Fielder in certain situations even though McGehee is hitting very well behind them. If protection exists why isn't Gomez seeing any benefits from it. You are free to believe what you want but I will put protection in the same bucket with strikeouts and small ball. It may matter in high school, college and the low minors when the talent levels are pretty disparate but once you get to the majors all the hitters and fielders except for pitchers are pretty close in talent.

[BrewCrewRising]

"If protection exists why isn't Gomez seeing any benefits from it"

 

Well, if a guy never, ever takes a walk, protection is a moot point.

[3Putt]

I don't think we're 3 or 4 years out but we're at least a year out and that's how long we will have Prince. Better to trade him while he still has value. I agree with trading Hart also because he's generally a liability on defense. I'm big on McGehee and haven't seen anything from Gamel to believe he can be a third baseman. Also we're assuming he can fix the hole in his swing. McGehee takes a great approach at the plate and he's about average on defense. I'll take that from the league RBI leader. He's been solid for a full year now with no signs of a decline.

[monty57]

Many of the arguements put forth here are more fuel for my belief that management needs to determine very quickly that we are sellers this year and start focusing on the future rather than gaining an extra few wins this season.

-How will the offense perform without Fielder? We honestly don't know, but the more PAs we get without him, the better we'll find out, and if we don't trade him until next offseason, we'll have no idea how it will work until the games really matter. If we trade Fielder this season, we will be able to see how the offense works with Gamel/McGehee at 1B/3B. I know it's small sample, but if it completely bombs, we should make an effort to get a Dunn/Lee type player in the offseason to pick up the slack.

-Will we get someone for Fielder who will be in the rotation next season? Again, if we trade him sooner rather than later, we'll get more value for him. 1.6 years of him is greater than 1.0 years of him. As long as we're looking for minor leaguers and not people currently on an MLB roster, by trading him in late June/early July, we should be able to get better return and have them in our system sooner so that we can see if they'll be ready for the 2011 rotation.

-The same holds true for RF. If we are going to trade Hart, do it now when his value has gone back up, and give Cain more experience at the MLB level.

-What do we have in our pitchers going into next season? In my opinion, this needs to be a major focus of the team. Bush starting vs. Parra starting may or may not be better for this season. However, Bush is gone after this season, while Parra is around for a few more years, and could (if he puts it all together) be a big answer to our starting pitching woes. Give starts to players who may have some impact on future Brewers teams. Right now, that's Yo, Wolf, Parra, Narveson and Capuano. It may also include someone like Loe and later in the season could well mean calling up a prospect like Rivas, Rogers or Jones. If someone like Rivas is going to be in next year's rotation, I'd much rather he get some starts for the Brewers this year when the games don't matter. Plus, from a PR perspective, we might sell some tickets to see "the first of our big wave of good, young starting pitching," much like Weeks, Fielder, etc sold tickets when they were first called up. No one is going to buy a ticket just to see Dave Bush pitch, even if he is currently better than the youngster.

-Let the youngsters play. Someone earlier mentioned that we don't know what we really have with some of our young players, so we need them to get as many PAs this year as possible. Escobar is getting a good share of the playing time at SS, but now that Hart is hot, Gomez is splitting time with Edmonds when Edmonds is not a part of the future of this team. Meanwhile, Lucroy is getting about one start a week. I like Kottaras, and he's part of the future as well, but either we need to bring up a scrub backup and let Lucroy play at AAA (which would mean adding someone to our already crowded 40-man), or we need to split the time more evenly at the MLB level between Kottaras and Lucroy.

-To some extent, I think they already started a youth movement in the bullpen through their use of Axford and Braddock, but that could just have been done out of necessity due to injury and Hoffman's performance. I think Axford needs to remain the closer unless he proves he doesn't deserve it. I like Hoffman, and wish things had turned out differently so he could get his 600 saves, but the Brewers need to think of the team first, and having Axford continue to gain experience as the closer will help them for a long time, and probably save them millions of dollars they otherwise have been handing to "proven closers."

[Tbadder]

As always I take the more pessimistic view. Until the Brewers create an actual pipeline to the majors they are going no where. Coupled with problems like Arnett and another hitch is put in the process. The Brewers are going to have to do a better job actually developing talent, and I'm not sure they are there yet. They seem pretty good at identifying talent, but that isn't gonna help if an organization can't turn that talent into something.

 

 

 

Trading Prince is gonna make us better for sure, but it's also gonna make us worse no doubt. You don't just replace guys with an OBP above four hundred with tons of power. To put our hope on Hart and McGehee, well, I think that's silly because the track record isn't long enough or consistent enough. In fact Hart is about to get very expensive, especially if he flirts with leading the league in HRs this year, which again will hurt our ability to get better.

 

 

 

I think a lot of the Brewers' ability to become competitive and stay competitive is up to the Brewer fans. If they start supporting them through thick and thin, through the up cycles and the down cycles, then we have a chance. But if they're gonna take their money elsewhere because we're not in the hunt for a playoff spot, well, then stick a fork in the organization--no chance whatsoever.

 

 

 

So, do they have to rebuild? I think that can't afford to rebuild, which will lead to their demise because of so many fair-weather fans. They've got to rely on the band-aid approach which is pretty much proven not to work. And Cliff Lee? Come on, Cliff Lee wants to come to Po-Dunk America? I don't think so. I'm Cliff Lee and I'm saying, "I think I'll go to one of the least successful organization in the history of baseball." I don't see it happening, especially when several contenders and big-market teams will be all over him. And if I'm Milwaukee, do I want a guy like Cliff Lee? No way. The dude's second home is the disabled list. I want no part of him.

 

 

 

Being good takes time. Lots of time. And since time is running out on much of our talent like Prince I can't see them doing any other than doing things the right way and being very, very patient.

[dragoon84]

I'm amazed at Fielder's stats this year. He would have to go on a massive tear to break 100 RBIs. That we're still in the top 5 offenses in the league is astonishing to me. If we hold on to Prince, he might score more runs than he drives in.

 

What this team desperately needs is quality pitching, which has been a struggle. Its been a bummer of a year already for me, we've had some HIGH highs like the Pittsburgh series, but the lows have been gut wrenching. We're most likely not going anywhere, we're perpetually 10 back, and there is no way we can match the Cardinals or the Reds pitching. We have an ace who I feel is more a great #2, a decent #3/4 in Wolf, and then question marks the rest of the way down. I've lost track of who has made what start when, this season.

 

We need two or three half way decent starters to match the Wainwright and Carpenter combo, not to mention the Reds out of nowhere staff. We also need two quality middle relievers. I think Fielder could help ease our problems with the pitching, and I think our offense will still work Ok.

 

We're lucky all sorts of bad contracts are done after this year. I hope Melvin doesn't make a Suppan kind of mistake again.

[monty57]

As always I take the more pessimistic view. Until the Brewers create an actual pipeline to the majors they are going no where. Coupled with problems like Arnett and another hitch is put in the process. The Brewers are going to have to do a better job actually developing talent, and I'm not sure they are there yet. They seem pretty good at identifying talent, but that isn't gonna help if an organization can't turn that talent into something.

 

Does anyone know Peterson's history with minor leaguers? Could it be that his approach of changing pitchers' mechanics has negative effects at first, but positive long-term effects? I don't know if this is the case, but it's possible that some of our young pitchers' slow starts could be due to the Brewers committment to Peterson's philosophy throughout the organization.

 

...not to mention the Reds out of nowhere staff.

 

At the risk of sounding too much like TheCrew07, it didn't come out of nowhere, it is because the Reds made a decision several years ago to focus on drafting and developing quality pitching. The Brewers seem to have made that decision two years ago, as the last three drafts (including yesterday) have been very pitching heavy. If we can develop this pitching effectively, we should have a lot of good pitching coming up through the organization for quite a while.

 

We're lucky all sorts of bad contracts are done after this year. I hope Melvin doesn't make a Suppan kind of mistake again.

 

All of the extra money we will have is a big reason why I don't think we will have an extended rebuilding period. To Melvin's credit, while he has been adding "average" veteran arms in Looper and Davis in recent years, he seems to have learned a lesson from the Suppan deal, as he has signed them to one-year-plus-option contracts so we wouldn't be stuck with them if they bomb. The only longer term deal was a three year deal to Wolf, who is much more talented than Suppan, Looper or Davis.

[TheCrew07]

Here's something to ponder.

 

Aroldis Chapman lhp

6 years/$30.25M (2010-15)

• 6 years/$30.25M (2010-15)
  • signed by Cincinnati as an amateur free agent 1/11/10
    
  • $16.25M signing bonus ($1.5M at signing; $1.5M each Nov. 1, 2010-13; $1.25M each Nov. 1, 2014-20)
    
  • 10:$1M, 11:$1M, 12:$2M, 13:$2M, 14:$3M, 15:$5M player option
  • Chapman must decide whether to accept or decline 2015 player option within 5 days after end of 2014 World Series
    
  • if Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2012, $5M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible
  • if Chapman qualifies for arbitration after 2013, $3M is converted to a bonus and he becomes arbitration-eligible

Randy Wolf lhp

3 years/$29.75M (2010-12), plus 2013 club option

• 3 years/$29.75M (2010-12), plus 2013 club option
  • signed by Milwaukee as a free agent 12/9/09
  • 10:$9.25M, 11:$9.5M, 12:$9.5M, 13:$10M club option ($1.5M buyout)
  • performance bonuses: $0.125M each for 190, 200 innings
  • $4M of 2010 salary deferred
    
  • $0.25M assignment bonus if traded
    
  • limited no-trade clause

Who's the better value for essentially the same total contract value in: 2010? 2011? 2012? 2013?

 

I'll concede that Wolf will probably be more value pitcher in 2010, Chapman likely won't pitch in MLB until September. However what about in 2011? What about over the length of the contract?

 

Instead of getting hung up on the obvious, if we're willing to open up our minds a little bit there are always other possibilities out there for us. I firmly believe that there are better ways to spend money than Melvin has been doing.

[TuesdaysWithRillo]

A lot of good thoughts have been shared in this thread, but one thing I might add is that people are pretty down on our farm system because of 2 bad months to start this season. I call that a Small Sample Size alert. Arnett could easily turn things around and there is a ton of pitching prospects that have top of the rotation written all over them if they pan out like Rogers, Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Rivas, Scarpetta, Bucci, etc. All we need is 2 of those guys to become impact pitchers by 2013 and we are looking at a very solid rotation to team up with Gallardo and hopefully Parra.

Also, I think Rickie Weeks is a long term option at 2B or at least in the outfield. He provides enough OBP for his bat to play in the outfield if 2B doesn't work out. The rest of the position players look pretty set for years to come. Escobar is only going to get better, and McGehee now has almost a year's worth of statistics to back himself up as a legitimate starting 3B in the Big Leagues. Gomez's bat has upside and his defense allows him to play CF and be a positive impact player. Braun is entrenched in LF and RF could easily be filled by Cain if Hart moves on. I thought it was interesting that Salome made a start in RF in his come back attempt, but that's a little off topic.

Overall, the Brewers aren't as bad as they look right now and if the bullpen converts on a few games that they should have, we all wouldn't be so bleak right now about the rest of the team. There's no reason not to think that this team can't compete for the playoffs next year if a few things go our way. Who knows?

[Tbadder]

I'll tell you what I really liked to hear was Seid on the broadcast Tuesday night saying that his first goial was to build a championship rotation through the draft. That's the kind of thing that floats my boat. That's long term, anti-quick fix mentality i believe the Crew need.

great point about the Wolf vs. Chapman comparison.

[LouisEly]

too much for what? With the $38M or whatever coming off the books, and the proven desire to pay in that 10-15 range (Lee, Coco, Hoffman, Gagne, Suppan, Cameron), there is no reason they couldnt hit that next level and bank it on one super arm instead of a bunch of "above average" guys.

Bingo. When I add up Suppan, Hall, Davis, Hoffman, Zaun, Riske, Bush, Gerut, Vargas, Edmonds, and Counsell I come up with $49M. I don't know about buyouts, so I'm estimating $3M in buyouts plus raises to Braun, Gallardo, and others under contract (not including arby raises) it still is over $40M. Those eligible for arby include Coffey, Fielder, Gomez, Hart, Parra, Villanueva, and Weeks - say an average of $2M arby raise for each comes to $14M in arby raises, which leave $26M. Even if it is $20M in arby raises hat still leaves over $20M freed up for next year - that's without trading Hart or Fielder. If they trade both that leaves almost $45M freed up ($40M - $10M in arby raises + $15M in Fielder/Hart salary).

 

Starting rotation - Gallardo, Wolf, Parra, Narveson, plus legit #2 starter acquired with the $20M+ freed up.

Bullpen - Axford, Braddock, Coffey, Villanueva, Loe, two of Hawkins/Smith/Stetter/Capuano

IF - McGehee, Escobar, Weeks, Fielder/Gamel

OF - Braun, Gomez, Hart/?

 

Lately Parra and Narveson have been pitching better than average for #4/5 starters. If you want, consider Parra a #3, Wolf a #4, and Narveson a #5. So really they only need a legit #2. I know, sounds like a broken record. But I think they can clear enough salary where they can sign Fielder to an extension and get a legit #2.

[TooLiveBrew]

If the Brewers sign Fielder, it's going to be in free agency imo. At this point, being a Boras client, he's just way too close to FA to realistically consider signing an extension. I definitely don't want to see him signed as a FA, & I don't really want to see him extended at this point, either.

[logan82]

I know, sounds like a broken record. But I think they can clear enough salary where they can sign Fielder to an extension and get a legit #2.

 

Maybe, but I would rather they didn't. I would hate to see close to half our payroll tied up in 2 players. It isn't like the available SP are all that interesting this coming offseason.

 

Potential Free Agents for 2011

 

The following players

have contracts expiring or should have the six years of service

necessary to become free agents after the 2010 season.

 

* - player

whose current contract includes 2011 optio

 

Starting Pitchers

Bronson Arroyo CIN *

Josh Beckett BOS

Jeremy Bonderman

DET

David Bush MIL

Daniel Cabrera CWS

Matt Cain SF *

Jorge

De La Rosa COL

Jeff Francis COL *

Jon Garland SD *

Aaron Harang

CIN *

Tim Hudson ATL

Cliff Lee SEA

Ted Lilly CHC

Braden

Looper MIL

Noah Lowry SF

Kevin Millwood BAL

Jamie Moyer PHI

Vicente

Padilla LAD

Nate Robertson DET

Ian Snell SEA *

Jeff Suppan MIL

*

Javier Vazquez NYY

Brandon Webb ARI

Jake Westbrook CLE

Dontrelle

Willis DET

Chris Young SD *

[TheCrew07]

I was just posting the same with links to B-Ref for each player, but I'll just go with Logan's list.

 

Who's your guy Louis? Cain is the only player on that list I'd pay big money to because he'll only be 26 next season, but San Fran would be crazy not to resign him.

 

Every other good pitcher on that list will be over 30 next season, some coming off of injuries like Webb. Who's a clear cut 1/2 outside of Cliff Lee who will be 32? Can we get Lee on a 4 or 5 year deal?

 

Bonderman hasn't come close to fulfilling his potential, Beckett is struggling this season, JDLR is more of a #3, Lily will be 35, Millwood will be 36 and hasn't been dominant since 2005, Vaquez will be 36 and has just been ok this season, Westbrook will be 33 and he's not a top of the rotation guy, and finally Chris Young will be 32 and hasn't pitched since the first week of the season with a shoulder injury.

[trwi7]

That list isn't updated yet because Cain signed a two year extension through 2012. So really the only guy is Lee.