Do we really need to rebuild?

[chadomac]

I realize that the pitching on this team is an utter mess right now... but I think the one silver lining from this entire season is that the Brewers have proven they have a formidable offense WITHOUT Prince Fielder. A lot of people seem to think we need to completely overhaul this team and hope that we can compete again a few years down the road. I actually think that if the management uses our trade chips and money wisely we can be back in it again starting next year.

 

Fielder started off horribly and has since improved to have decent numbers right now - but they are not great numbers. The entire time he was struggling the Brewers were ranked 1st or 2nd in all the major offensive categories. I realize that some people will say those team stats were inflated by the Pirates blowouts... but they are STILL ranked in the top 3 or 4 in every major offensive category in the NL. This offense CAN compete with someone else playing 1B for us. I think that moving Fielder and Hart either this year or in the offseason, along with freeing up a ton of money (Fielder, Hart, Hall, Suppan all off the books) can help us find the pitching that we desperately need. I just don't agree that we are 3-4 years away from competing again.

[FVBrewerFan]

Well, I don't agree we're necessarily 3-4 years away from competing again either. Could be that long, or even longer. Then again, if the right moves are made, it could be much sooner than that.

 

With that said, I think you're seriously under-valuing how Prince affects the rest of the line-up. Even though he hasn't hit 15 HR this year, or driven in a bunch of runs, just having him in the line-up helps Braun, McGhee, and even Hart. So they haven't proven to have a formidable offense without Prince. He has been in the line-up all year.

[cwolf2012]

Don't underestimate the value of Prince's .400 OBP as well. That's pretty important.

[tomwopat]

Fielder is still above average for NL 1B. With an average or below average 1B they're easily in the basement.

 

And to echo FBBrewerFan, opposing teams have been incredibly careful about how they've pitched to Prince. I love the success that McGehee has been having, but I can't believe opposing team tactics would remain the same without Prince, or at least the threat of Prince hurting them in the lineup.

 

Unless DM waves a magic wand, it's hard to see how pitching will enable the team will compete before Gallardo hits FA, much less the current core of the team.

[chadomac]

I definitely didn't mean to say Prince isn't above average - and he is having a good year... just a down year for him. I just think with an average 1B in his place we could still have an overall above average offense.

 

I didn't think about how his presence makes the people around him better, though. That's true.

[PKBadger]

Players who likely won't be on next year's payroll (and current salary):

 

 

Suppan - $12.75 million

Hoffman - $7.5 million

Bill Hall - $7.15 million

Davis - $4.25 million

Bush - $4.215

Zaun - $1.9 million

 

That's almost $38 million dollars, and I didn't include Riske. Obviously, some of that goes toward arby + raises for Braun & Gallardo, maybe a Weeks extension. But it's a lot of wiggle room.

 

I can envision a scenario where Fielder and Hart are traded and these surplus funds are used to sustain a competitive ballclub. The key is to use the money wisely, which I'm not so confident about. Obviously, if I suggest using it for FA pitching, TheCrew07 will rip me a new one. But what if it allows us to trade and absorb the salary of a younger pitcher?

 

Either way, it's going to be a very interesting offseason.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

The payroll will likely be down as well. I can't see attendance covering an $85MM payroll next year. They will likely run a deficit this year and need to cut back. That still leaves room with a big chunk of the payroll coming off. It's more important they spend it wisely than just spend it.

 

Now that the Suppan angst is over, I would give Melvin credit for primarily going with one year deals on most of the vets. While Hall & Suppan were long term stinkers and who knows about Wolf, the Gagne type signings have only burnt them for a year.

[TheCrew07]

It all depends on the type of pitcher we sign. If we're signing Lee(for example), I'll be concerned about the long term implications but at least he has significant talent. Perhaps some of the young pitching talent would work out wonderfully making Lee expendable in a trade. Some way, some how, the top of the rotation desperately needs to be addressed.

 

What I hate is spending money on averagish pitching.

[rluzinski]

The Brewers have a nice offense but that is somehwhat offset by poor fielding. Starting pitching-wise, they have an average #1 starting pitcher for cheap, a decent #3 under contract for a few years and not much else. Right now, not a terrible team (certainly not as bad as their record suggests) but not a good one either.

 

It's very difficult for a team with a sub $90 mil payroll to compete without a nice amount of pre-freeagent talent. The Brewers need guys like Escobar, Gamel and Lecroy to develop into at least average players. That allows Melvin to spend the excess money on other needs. No, the Brewers won't be buying an ace but a couple of average starters (that aren't 34) signed to reasonable contracts could go a long way to making the Brewers into an 85 win team and a fringle playoff team.

 

But I guess I don't really agree with the concept of a comprehensive rebuild to begin with. Unless they are in the middle of a playoff race (not 4.5 games back in July, with 4 teams ahead of them), a team like the Brewers need to be willing to trade a player like Fielder if the return is good. And if you have yound, decent talent, just hold onto them.

[chadomac]

Kottares/Lucroy, McGehee, Escobar, Gomez, and Gamel (if he ends up playing 1B or 3B next year) means that at least 5 of the 8 position players on the team next year will be making near the league minimum. Add Lorenzo Cain into RF and that's 6 out of 8. Basically the only guys that would be making more than a million dollars per season are Braun and Weeks if we keep him. That's a very cheap core of players.

Also, we have a lot of cheap bullpen options and don't really need to spend more there. Stetter, Braddock, Axford, Loe, Estrada, Narveson - I'm sure there are other potential guys I'm missing.

If management can use all that free money to get the right starting pitching here (that's a HUGE "if"), it seems like this club could compete. Like someone mentioned, it may be much wiser to trade for these higher paid players rather than offer them FA contracts. I don't see us signing Cliff Lee, but maybe Attanasio wants to win right now?

[NievesNoNO]

chadomac wrote:

This offense CAN compete with someone else playing 1B for us. I think that moving Fielder and Hart either this year or in the offseason, along with freeing up a ton of money (Fielder, Hart, Hall, Suppan all off the books) can help us find the pitching that we desperately need. I just don't agree that we are 3-4 years away from competing again.

I don't necessarily believe we're 3-4 years away either. I guess I would call it a modified rebuild. I would say however, that the freed up money won't help our pitching. I'd rather we didn't even attempt to fix the pitching problem with money. We have our 1 FA starter, now I think we need to find internal solutions. The process would really go much faster if Parra could just remember how to pitch. (His last start was encouraging). The loss of Fielder would definatley hurt, but I agree that the offense would be passable even with out him. I do think he gets taken for granted though. We don't have to really worry about filling a big hole position player wise. Braun, Gomez, Escobar, McGhee, Weeks, and LuCroy is a nice base. Hopefully Gamel moves into the mix as well. Hopefully if Fielder or Hart are moved it's for high upside arms. Really, I think a lot hinges on Parra and the potential trade of Fielder. On paper I feel like we're only an elite pitcher or two away, but I suppose a lot of teams could say that.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

When I think of complete rebuild I think of the Pirates last year. Realizing the ceiling for the team in mid-70s wins if everything goes right, so dump everyone for younger talent and start over. Makes sense. I don't see that for the Crew.

 

Trading Prince or Hart could make sense, but only if we have other options and the price is right. If that means taking a 1/2 year step back while some high talent AA/AAA pitchers develop, that could make some sense if it still gives us multiple shots while Braun/Gallardo are under contract.

[RockCoCougars]

Obviously, the pitching staff needs a big time overhaul, but just the fact that we are discussing this issue with this offense makes me question whether the Brewers need to rebuild the front office. This isn't like the 1984 Brewers with a bunch of aging sluggers, most of these guys are in their primes or not there yet. Unlike most here, I have not given up on the season yet, so I'd like to try a managerial change. Just that simple move could spark the team, and if not no big deal. If they picked up a few games by the all-star break they could be only 6 back or so. That's not insurmountable.

[monty57]

I'm with you chadomac. We have a lot of money coming off the books, a lot of young, cheap talent, and some good trading chips. If we can find one top-of-the-rotation starter to pair with Yo & Wolf, all of a sudden we have a decent rotation, especially if Parra gets it together and some of our minor leaguers start to come of age.

 

With our excess money, we could take a shot at Cliff Lee in free agency. Or, if we don't want to go that route, we could trade for a high priced pitcher with some years left, such as Dan Haren (being discussed in Trade Forums). Finally, we have Prince and to a lesser degree Hart who could be traded for young pitching.

 

Prior posts bring up Prince's effect on the rest of the lineup, and that is something which would be missed, but the same thing happens if we could add one more good pitcher, particularly one who can pitch deep into a game on a regular basis. Prince's position could be filled from within by someone like Gamel, or we could go out and sign someone like Adam Dunn or Derrick Lee to a 1-2 year contract, which would be much cheaper than trying to buy a #1 starter on the FA market. The dropoff from Prince to Dunn, Lee or even Gamel is less than the upgrade we'd get by replacing our current mish-mash of #5 starters to a true #1/2 starter. Add on that putting Lo Cain in RF and Lee at 1b would probably decrease our team ERA significantly vs Hart & Fielder, and it would be even more palatable.

 

It's not easy to find a #1/2 starter, but we have multiple ways of going about doing it, so hopefully Melvin will pull the trigger and use some of his free cash flow and take a shot at a difference making type pitcher rather than an innings-eater.

[uwisfan]

I think the Brewers need to rebuild and by that I mean, stop trying to "finesse" the last pieces of the roster. We are not "one piece away" from a championship team, so there is little value in overpaying some big name veteran pitchers to help the club win right now. It's obvious Prince wont be around for any kind of championship run, so he probably brings the most value with some contract left in front of him.

 

The Brewers don't need a complete overhaul; they have several pieces locked up for a long time: Gallardo, Braun, Escobar, McGehee, Gamel, Lawrie, and enough young catchers. So there are some good pieces, but they need to focus on the future instead of winning right now.

 

edit: and by that, I'm saying the Gagne/Suppan/Looper pitchers that are paying "half price" of the aces for extremely weak results. Bring on the mega-contract Cliff Lees that could make or break the team.

[Invader3K]

A Cliff Lee signing would make me optimistic and excited, but very nervous at the same time. He's a very very good pitcher, an ace, but he is older than what I'd like to see them commit to going forward (already 31, and has had some injury issues, including this season). Plus you just know some team like the Angels or Red Sox will decide to get in on him, driving up the price anyway.

 

As far as a rebuild, I don't think it has to be that bad, as long as some pieces are moved this season. If Melvin sits on his hands again like last year, it could end up being a much longer turn around period than any of us want.

[FVBrewerFan]

Quite frankly, we won't know how much rebuilding is needed until the season plays out. There are far too many guys who are question marks. Virtually every position player other than Braun is a question mark. I'm not talking about whether they'll be entrenched or not, but the production you can expect. Escobar, Lucroy and Gomez? Face it, any one of those guys could hit .220. They could also hit .280. I love McGehee, but I'm just not sold he can keep hitting like this, especially without Prince for protection. Gamel? Who knows? Even Weeks...is that really someone you pencil in and feel great about? I don't.

 

Same thing for the pitching staff. Parra, Narveson, Capuano, etc. ,etc. A lot of these guys we just need to let the season play out and see if they can be meaningful pieces to the puzzle next year or not. While I"M NOT PREDICTING THIS, what if Parra and Capuano pitch great the rest of the year? Suddenly the rebuilding doesn't look so daunting. On the other hand, if the season ended today, looks more like ac omplete rebuild.

[TooLiveBrew]

I love McGehee, but I'm just not sold he can keep hitting like this, especially without Prince for protection

 

Players can protect other guys by hitting ahead of them? I'm not a big believer in protection in general, but this is a new angle on it to me.

[rluzinski]

I have no issue with signing a starting pitcher who projects to be average over the course of his contract. The problem is when Melvin signs a pitcher who is on the wrong side of 30 to a multiyear deal and he projects to be average for the upcoming season.

[Invader3K]

Hasn't "protection" been pretty much statistically discredited? I guess you could argue that there is some sort of unquantifiable mental boost to a hitter knowing he has quality guys behind him, but it seems like it's quite small in terms of actual production.

 

Anyway, we have to remember that some guys like Rivas and Odorizzi may not be all that far off. If at least a couple more of our pitching prospects would finally pan out, we should be OK. Parra stepping up could also be huge.

[logan82]

Hasn't "protection" been pretty much statistically discredited?

Yes it has or at the very most to have a minimal effect.

 

I wouldn't say losing Fielder will have no affect on the offense but I don't think any single player will be effected much. In the case of McGehee, I will believe he is capable of maintaining his current production when he continues it for a couple months into next season.

 

I have to agree we are not Pirates rebuild bad at this point. Flipping Fielder for a near MLB ready pitcher along with a couple of our internal guys developing will help a lot. I would be a little leery of signing a guy like Lee.

[endaround]

Except you aren't flipping Fielder for major league ready pitcher. Fielder could bring a guy who might be ready2nd half of next season to start pitchign in teh majors but will liekyl take that half a season to be decent.

[Invader3K]

They way I see it we have another window that will be open until Braun and Gallardo are gone for FA after the 2015 season. The right moves this off-season could make 2011 the only real "rebuild" year in the immediate future. I think we could easily be very competitive again in 2012 and beyond with the right plan in place.

[uwisfan]

I expect the Brewers to bring up another 2 semi-legit pitching prospects each of the next 5 years, starting this year with Axford & Braddock. There are a good 10-15 pitchers worth following in the minors right now. So, essentially, the Brewers should have some legit pitching filler for their roster over the next decade.

 

Having said that, there is nobody in the minors that convinces me we have a bona fide ace. Gallardo is a weak #1, but would make an excellent #2. Wolf would make a great #3, but a weak #2. You throw a Cliff Lee in front of that rotation, and suddently you have a very formidable rotation, when combined with all the incoming pitching filler.

 

The other issue is that once playoffs begins, your ace is going to see a greater percentage of the innings. So you really someone impressive in that #1 slot. The Brewers need to save money with all these other filler roles to get that true ace.

[Invader3K]

That sounds great, but I fear Lee is just going to cost too much money, and I don't think there is much else on the FA SP market this coming off-season.