Mock draft thread

[battlekow]

I'd like to collect all the various mock drafts in this thread. Feel free to post any I've missed.

• Jim Callis (Baseball America): RHP Matt Harvey, North Carolina: "Milwaukee needs pitching and has been tied to a pair of prep arms who
  aren't consensus first-round talents: Pennsylvania lefthander Jesse
  Biddle and Florida righthander Luke Jackson. It will be hard to pass up
  talented college pitchers who fall, such as Harvey and McGuire. The
  Brewers are the first real candidates to pop enigmatic Louisiana State
  righthander Anthony Ranaudo, and persistent rumors that they'll ignore
  pitching and take Castellanos won't go away."

• Keith Law (ESPN): RHP Matt Harvey, North Carolina: "Or Barrett Loux. I have written before that they're interested in both
  Jesse Biddle and Luke Jackson, but industry sentiment has them taking a
  college arm rather than a prep one. "

• Andy Seiler (MLB Bonus Baby): RHP Matt Harvey, North Carolina: "Even though Harvey comes with a
  lot of risk for a college arm, the Brewers are a team that desperately
  needs high-ceiling college pitching in their system. They could be
  looking at the likes of Wimmers, Wojciechowski, or perhaps a prep arm
  such as A.J. Cole. Harvey is the best fit, but a number of arms are
  possibilities."

• Jonathan Mayo (MLB.com): RHP Deck McGuire, Georgia Tech

• Patrick Ebert (5 Tool Talk): LHP Jesse Biddle, Germantown Friends HS (PA)

• Frankie Piliere (FanHouse): LHP Jesse Biddle, Germantown
  Friends HS (PA): "Sources say that the Brewers are considering three players. That list
  includes Biddle, Luke Jackson, and a college player -- whom many believe
  is Matt Harvey. In the end. I think Harvey will price himself out, and
  Biddle will be their guy following his impressive workout."

• David Rawnsley (Perfect Game USA): C/SS Justin O’Conner, Cowan HS (IN): "High-school position players have been notably, but very predictably,
  absent thus far, and this slot is where it should change. I’ve been told
  that O’Conner is one of the fastest-rising players on draft boards and
  should go in the top half of the first round. Third baseman Nick
  Castellanos, a Florida high-school slugger, is also a good fit for this
  slot."

• Michael Huang (Sporting News): RHP Asher Wojciechowski, The
  Citadel: "Think Jonathan Broxton and you've got Wojciechowski. Big and
  intimidating, his 96-mph fastball is one of the best at the collegiate
  level. He needs to refine a breaking pitch, but he could be a workhorse
  starter or a dominating closer."

• Dallas Jackson (Rivals): OF Josh
  Sale, Bishop Blanchet
  HS (WA): "Sale is one of more intriguing players in the
  draft, his bat is probably the best among all high school players but
  his defense is limited to either 1B or a shift to the corner outfield.
  The Brew Crew may have a tough time keeping him from going to Gonzaga to
  develop."
  

• Jason Churchill (Prospect Insider): RHP Asher Wojciechowski, The
  Citadel

• Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus): RHP Anthony Ranaudo, LSU: "My understanding is that the Brewers big three here are Ranaudo, Workman
  and Harvey. Ranaudo's SEC tournament showing might have saved him, but
  Milwaukee is still gauging both the medical and the money."

• Burke Granger (Prospect Junkies): RHP Asher Wojciechowski, The
  Citadel: "Power arm will need time to develop secondary stuff."
  

[CheezWizHed]

Rivals:

The Pick: Josh

Sale, 3b/OF, Seattle (Wash.) Bishop Blanchet

The Buzz: Sale is one of more intriguing players in the

draft, his bat is probably the best among all high school players but

his defense is limited to either 1B or a shift to the corner outfield.

The Brew Crew may have a tough time keeping him from going to Gonzaga to

develop.

[paul253]

I don't know much about Alex Wimmers, but I don't like the terms "raw stuff" and "reasonable price tag". Not that I don't hope his price tag is reasonable, but I hate the idea of drafting someone just because he'd be easier to sign.

[Boisebrewer]

I don't know much about Alex Wimmers, but I don't like the terms "raw stuff" and "reasonable price tag". Not that I don't hope his price tag is reasonable, but I hate the idea of drafting someone just because he'd be easier to sign.

 

I totally agree. We don't have that many extra picks this year so we should be able to spend on picks. Although I'd like an arm, I'd be excited about Choice or Castellanos. As bad as our pitching is, we could be in the opposite boat a few years from now if we draft pitching every year. Of course that has worked for TB.

[CheezWizHed]

Yeah, I had flash-backs to the Selig days (Green, Peterson, Williamson) when reading that. Hopefully, price is one of our last considerations now.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't know much about Alex Wimmers, but I don't like the terms "raw stuff" and "reasonable price tag". Not that I don't hope his price tag is reasonable, but I hate the idea of drafting someone just because he'd be easier to sign.

I agree, and the organization's recent track record of not being scared off by signability guys makes me feel confident we don't have to worry *too* much

[brewerguy71]

I am no fan of Harvey or Wojceihowski. I am ok with the other players on those Mock Drafts, but my issue is that there is an opportunity cost of capital here that the Brewers would miss out on if they took any one of those players.

 

If some of the Mock's turn out to be true, or if any of them are, who knows? There is going to be a high impact HS arm available to the Brewers thie year at the #14 spot and one of them should be their pick. I dont think Castellanos is going to be a good major leaguer. He may hit, but his power potential is questionable expecially for 3B. Sale's is a nice player as well, but the team must be planning on trading either he or Lawrie if they make that pick. And if youre going to go with Choice, why not go with Austin Wilson instead? The Stanford commitment is something the Brewers cant deal with, but I'd take Wilson over Choice in a heartbeat.

 

One player that I have not seen linked with the team that makes sense is Justin O'Conner. He would be a great (typical 10 spots too early) pick for the Brewers this year.

[colbyjack]

I'll be changing my pick to one of the big, college arms that have been mentioned in conjunction with the Brewers. Most of the info I have gathered the past 2-3 days has them going this route.

[brewerguy71]

I'll be changing my pick to one of the big, college arms that have been mentioned in conjunction with the Brewers. Most of the info I have gathered the past 2-3 days has them going this route.

Great, look for the guy with a big injury history or bottom of the rotation as the upside.

 

 

[DHonks]

I just hope the guy has 2+ pitches AND velocity

[colbyjack]

David Rawnsley's 2nd mock is up. Justin O'Conner is his pick, with a mention of Nick Castellanos:

 

http://www.perfectgame.or...s/View.aspx?Article=4812

 

Guys like Brandon Workman, Asher Wojciechowski, Barret Loux, Matt Harvey and even Jesse Hahn's upside is plenty greater than a bottom of a rotation starter. I believe the one guy you mentioned that you liked brewerguy71, Matt Harvey, scares the heck out of me when it comes to possible future arm injury.

[brewerguy71]

Colby, must have me confused with someone else.

 

Ive never advocated them taking Harvey for the same reasons as you. Big mechanical issues, future injury risk, top upside is in bullpen etc.

 

I'm going to stick with the HS guys this year, and Cole is my guy. I dont mind Workman or Wimmers, but feel they are only #3 starters at best. Solid picks, but if you have such a high draft pick like that why not go for the player that profiles as a #1? Heck, if the team keeps playing the way it has this year, maybe I will get my wish next year in Gerrit Cole.

[colbyjack]

Sorry man, my bad on Harvey.

 

I agree that the talent at 14 could really favor the prep pitchers, but I think this team has been snake-bitten enough, not to mention the perceived need to move whoever they pick along a little more quickly. I think Workman's potential is a little better than Wimmers, as Wimmers in my mind is more of a back-end rotation starter. I haven't seen or heard the Brewers connected with him though, as I get the feeling they're looking for one of the bigger, live-armed college guys.

[colbyjack]

I skimmed the story before, but Rawnsley had some interesting insight on this year's draft as the lead-in to his projection:

 

A wise and very experienced former big-league scouting director, and current front-office guru, recently shared the following insight about the 2010 baseball draft, which begins this Monday:

 

“The draft breaks down this way,” he said. “(Bryce) Harper is obviously the best player. (Manny) Machado and (Jameson) Taillon are obviously the next two-best players. The next group has about 10-12 players in it, and everyone pretty much agrees on the names. That takes us about halfway through the first round.

 

“Those last 15-17 picks in the first round will come from a group of about 80-90 players, a whole lot of them who haven’t appeared on any mock drafts. There are going to be some real surprises in the second half of the first round.”

 

With the recent popularity of websites dedicated to the baseball draft, there have been any number of mock first-round projections that have popped up this spring, especially in the last week or so.

 

Most of the same, long-established college, junior-college and high-school names continue to appeared on a majority of the lists, but a few random names have begun to pop up as the wheels have begun to churn in earnest in the draft rooms of every big-league club.

 

Among the potential new first-round candidates, if mock drafts stand for anything, are outfielders Todd Cunningham (Jacksonville State) and Ryan LaMarre (Michigan), and catcher Mike Kvasnicka (Minnesota) from the college ranks; outfielder Marcus Knecht (Connors State, Okla.) from the junior-college ranks; catcher Kellin Deglan (British Columbia), first baseman Christian Yelich (California), second baseman Delino DeShields (Georgia), outfielder Jake Skole (Georgia), righthanders Adam Plutko (California) and Peter Tago (California), and lefthander Jesse Biddle (Pennsylvania) from the prep ranks.

 

With the exception of the oft-injured but fast-charging Skole, all those players are ranked on PG CrossChecker’s mid-May list of the Top 100 prospects for this year’s draft (EDITOR’S NOTE: A revised top 250 list will be issued just before the start of Monday’s proceedings).

 

How do names suddenly appear on mock-draft lists, and even get attached to specific teams? Here’s one scenario.

 

New York Mets GM Omar Minaya showed up at a Big 10 Conference tournament game last weekend in Columbus, Ohio, to watch Kvasnicka play. I’m told that Kvasnicka didn’t swing the bat particularly well in that game, and the 6-to-8 Midwest scouts I frequently talk to have never, ever mentioned Kvasnicka as a potential first-round pick, let alone going to the Mets at No. 7 overall.

 

Since the Mets don’t pick again until the third round (89th overall), and it’s logical to assume a big-league GM isn’t out canvassing the country looking at potential third-rounders, the logical assumption is that Minaya was bearing down on Kvasnicka. It didn’t go unnoticed by at least one draft projection.

 

A handful of the players who may be getting late first-round attention, but have never really ever been slotted so high before, are noted below. Frankly, they could easily qualify among those 80-90 “surprise” picks our highly respected scouting contact referred to. In the end, it will be interesting to see how many, if any, actually do get picked among the top 32.

[1e Corbeau]

Well, the Brewers already drafted Marcus Knecht... in the 23rd round of 2008. Another Ontarian. Good find, colby, since I just read right past that into the mock.

 

I wonder if Melvin was doing any scouting while in Florida this week. And, any news on a pre-draft workout at MP this weekend?

[colbyjack]

I'm guessing the pre-draft is tomorrow at Miller Park. They usually do it the Saturday before the draft.

[pretendastronaut]

Keith Law (ESPN) has his 3.0 mock up and has the Brewers slotted for Deck McGuire, RHP, Georgia Tech.

[nate82]

I would be happy with McGuire at 14 if that were the pick for the Brewers. He definitely isn't a #1 type of a pitcher unless his breaking ball pitches get better but he could be a good #2 or #3 type pitcher. Is there something wrong with McGuire for him to be falling in Keith Law's mock draft? He had a healthy 118 strike outs to 41 walks last year. He commands his pitches fairly well and throws a lot of strikes though his curve ball and his slider are not really that good.

[colbyjack]

Where did you read that McGuire's curve and slider aren't that good? He has four solid pitches, it's just that he tops out around 94 and pitches mostly in the 89-92 range. That limits his upside to a possible #2, but more likely a 3.

[nate82]

Where did you read that McGuire's curve and slider aren't that good? He has four solid pitches, it's just that he tops out around 94 and pitches mostly in the 89-92 range. That limits his upside to a possible #2, but more likely a 3.

From what I have been reading I will have to find the one where it states his slider is rather flat and there isn't much of a break in his curve ball. His change up is what intrigues me the most though.

 

 

What He Doesn’t Bring

Well, McGuire doesn’t have as much upside as some of the other guys

in this draft. His fastball is really just solid-average in terms of

velocity, and it doesn’t have great movement. It’s pretty straight,

though when he gets on top of the ball well, he can create a little bit

of sink with the downward plane he’s able to use. But he’s not a true

ground ball pitcher.

And he just doesn’t have a plus pitch in his repertoire. The slider

doesn’t have much depth—and touching 86, it looks like more of a

cutter—the curve doesn’t have a lot of bite, and the change is the pitch

he uses the least. I’m just not convinced he’ll be able to continue to

strike out hitters as he advances.

Finally, he has a couple of small mechanical issues. First of all, he

rotates his hips very late, allowing his arm to pass before his body

turns, robbing him of some velocity. Now, while this isn’t good, it

probably is what’s making his pitches difficult to pick up, so it’s not

all bad either. Second, he separates his hands very, very low, which is

really slowing down his tempo and probably stressing his shoulder a

little. Both flaws could contribute to a shoulder injury down the road,

but I’m not sure how escalated those chances are.

 

From here.

[battlekow]

Callis now has the Brewers taking McGuire as well.

[battlekow]

Keith Law: "Also hearing the Brewers are on lefty Jesse Biddle at No. 14, as are the Angels if he gets past the Phillies."

[TheCrew07]

Biddle is already 225 lbs? How much projection would he have left? I realize he's 6' 6", but looking at the various videos of him out there he's a pretty solid young man. As he's already topping out at 92, is it feasible he reaches 95?

[sveumrules]

If Ranaudo is there I'd roll the dice.

 

All pitchers get hurt so you might as well get it out of the way right out of the gun, er no?

[igor67]

I think it's about 10 years too late for Deck McGuire to be a useful thing http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif