Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5; Latest -- Dylan Covey doing well at U of San Diego

[Mass Haas]

Good to see Hunter Morris sign quickly. Anyone know what affiliate he will start at? BC or Huntsville?

That's a bit too ambitious, he'll begin at Wisconsin, which for the Brewers, even that is quite the bump for a post-draft week introduction to pro ball.

 

[logan82]

Contract talks with Covey have started. Doesn't seem like much new information.

 

The Chicago White Sox signed college left-hander Chris Sale,

the 13th pick, for $1,656,000. Texas signed prep outfielder Jake

Skole, the 15th pick, for $1,557,000.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Those bonus

figures indicate what the Brewers probably offered with their opening

bid. Darrell Covey, the father of Dylan, is negotiating for the

family and earlier indicated he was seeking a $2 million signing bonus.

 

[battlekow]

MLB Bonus Baby's pre-draft scouting report on Jimmy Nelson:

Jimmy Nelson is a durable right-handed starting pitcher from the University of Alabama. Nelson originally came to Alabama from Niceville High School in Niceville, Florida, a panhandle town and school where he was a year ahead of 2008 supplemental first round pick Brett DeVall and fellow Draft Notebook prospect Austin Wood. Nelson was a solid prospect coming out of high school, but scouts didn’t believe he was ready for pro ball at the time, and he fell to the thirty-ninth round in the 2007 draft, where the Reds took him and failed to sign him. He ended up at Alabama, where he pitched mainly in relief for his first two years. He struggled throughout those two years, and a transition to the rotation this spring has borne much fruit. He has developed at a fast rate, and scouts now believe he has the talent and frame to be a potential number three starter at the Major League level. His fastball is an above-average pitch that sits 89-92 in most outings, and he can bump it up to 95 if he needs to get it by a hitter. It rates as above-average due to its command and plus movement, though the movement sometimes moves it back over the plate, leaving him prone to home runs. He adds in an above-average slider, average curveball, and fringe-average changeup, and all four pitches should be usable as a pro. With four pitches like this and a successful year in the SEC on his resume, he could easily go in the third to sixth round range, where he should be signable for slot money.

[battlekow]

MLB Bonus Baby's pre-draft scouting report on Tyler Thornburg:

Tyler Thornburg is a hard-throwing collegiate right-handed starting pitcher from Charleston Southern University. Thornburg originally came to Charleston Southern from Riverwood High School in Atlanta, Georgia. He wasn’t highly-regarded coming out of high school, even in an area that’s a hotbed of talent, so he went undrafted and headed for Charleston Southern in the fall of 2007 as a two-way player. Once there, he played both in the outfield and pitched out of the starting rotation, having good success on the mound, but being prone to the big inning. He moved to the bullpen for his sophomore year, having better success there and continuing that success as a reliever on the Cape last summer. He returned to school this spring hoping to do well enough to get drafted in the top ten rounds, but he’s exceeded expectations in the starting rotation, while also playing right field during the first half of the year. After such a great year, scouts project him to be a possible number three starter or setup man, with most thinking the bullpen is the likely destination. His stuff is good enough for either spot. His fastball is a solid-average to above-average pitch that sits 91-94, touching 95, and he locates it quite well. It moves a little bit, but it can be hittable at times, so he needs to locate it down in the zone as a pro. His curveball is a potential plus pitch, and he gets most of his strikeouts with it. He doesn’t throw a changeup well, but he’ll need to learn one or perhaps a cutter as a pro starter. He should go in the area of the third to fifth round range, where he’ll be signable for the neighborhood of slot money.

[1e Corbeau]

BA's Jim Callis tweets about Covey's $2M asking price:

Not really. He has leverage as HS arm. @JoeDigiov: Covey wants $2m from Brewers. Matter that guys taken just ahead/after signed 4 much less?

[paul253]

Does the fact that Dylan Covey's dad is asking for so much suggest that he doesn't really care if his son signs? I would think that seeing what others drafted around him got would have some sort of impact on the asking price. Also, does anyone know what kind of history there is for first round HS picks that end up going to college.....as far as how many of them actually improving their draft status? Refusing first round money to go off to college seems awfully risky if money is the main reason. I'd like to get this signing done, but Covey's dad seems to be a little unreasonable. The Brewers could always take the replacement pick in next year's draft, though those picks seem to be about signability than ability.

[Tedaldtada]

For all we know, Covey is signed. I just can't fathom a $500k or so gap won't be worked out.

[logan82]

I would guess the hang up is getting the commissioner's office to ok going over slot value to sign him. I am getting a little antsy to see him signed as well. I wouldn't be surprised to not see it get done until August 15th or a little before.

[colbyjack]

Pretty crazy that only 12 of 32 first-rounders have signed, and only two of those were selected before Covey. We're going to see a very active signing deadline.

 

As for former first-round picks going on to improve their draft status...that's tough because most first-rounders end up signing. In fact, most players taken in the top 2-3 rounds end up signing because the money is just too good and it's too risky to give that opportunity up. Matt Purke may very well improve his draft standing next year after being selected 14th overall in '09, although I would argue he should have been taken much higher than that (and therefore gotten more money) to begin with.

[uwisfan]

Covey all but said he was anxious to sign on draft day. I would imagine that the only that's held their side back is the lack of signings to date. I cant imagine them sticking to the #2MM price tag.

[battlekow]

Haudricourt:

Scouting director Bruce Seid said the Brewers continue to talk to the family of first-round draft pick Dylan Covey,

a prep right-hander from Pasadena, Calif. Covey was the 14th player

taken, and only two taken ahead of him have signed - shortstop Christian Colon (No.?4) by Kansas City and left-hander Chris Sale (No.?13) by the Chicago White Sox.

 

 

 

 

 

Teams have until Aug.?16 to sign their draft picks or lose negotiating rights.

 

 

 

 

 

"This is just part of the process," said Seid, who had West Coast cross-checker Corey Rodriguez in town. "A lot of guys wait until the end. Our conversations have been good and positive.

 

 

 

 

 

"We still feel real strong that he will sign. We're still confident."

 

 

 

 

 

If Covey doesn't

sign soon, however, he won't begin his pro career in 2010. The minor

leagues play through the end of August, and he hasn't pitched since the

spring.

 

 

 

 

 

"He's been doing his throwing," said Seid. "He's staying in shape. But if he gets any time in, it would be limited."

 

[YoungGeezy]

I do not think it is too far stretched to believe Covey will hold out for the two million. He holds all the cards and has the leverage, why budge? If the Brewers want him bad enough, which you figure the would, they will pay him.

[UeckerPowell]

Jim Callis answered a Dylan Covey question on twitter today.

 

"Slot is $1.602 million. Guessing $2 million maybe? @Chuck_Schwartz: How much over slot does MIL have to go to sign Covey?"

[logan82]

I think this applies to Dylan Covey. Peter Gammons tweet

 

Teams

that know they have to sign draftees above slot are told by Commish

Ofis to wait until Aug. 10 to begin negotiations. Chaos ahead?

[sfl2hnq17]

I haven't seen this posted, I figured I would, though most of you have probably already read it. (The comments section is pretty funny to read, from people not knowing the 21 year old draft rule and not knowing about draft compensation)

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/100195954.html

[HiAndTight]

I haven't seen this posted, I figured I would, though most of you have probably already read it. (The comments section is pretty funny to read, from people not knowing the 21 year old draft rule and not knowing about draft compensation)

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/100195954.html

I really just can't stand reading that site any longer. It's just over the top ignorance oozing out from almost every poster on there. Every once in a while you'll have someone come on and say, "actually, this is how this works, you're wrong about this, and this is also incorrect", but it's after 6-7 pages of ignorant bashing of either team or players for almost no reason.

 

And this is a perfect example of that. Covey's just getting RIPPED over there. For what? Not sure, but they obviously feel as though there's enough reason to make him public enemy #1.

 

[sfl2hnq17]

Just wanted to make sure I clarified, I'm not in the bash Covery camp. It was a sarcastic comment about it being funny, it's actually pathetic. Though I was really impressed that the whole, we have no pitching prospects was clarified in the comments section (another comment oozing with sarcasm)

[gregmag]

I don't feel strongly about the Covey situation, but I sort of wonder why they're asking for the extra $300k. Not "why" in a moral sense, but in a sense of value, bargaining power, and/or logic. The Commissioner's Office sets the slot prices. (Of course that's anticompetitive, but MLB still has its antitrust exemption.) What's the basis for the departure? Do draftees' agents/reps argue about comparable players, like in arbitration? It can't just be "Heck, 1.7 is close to two; let's just ask for an even two million," can it? How is the market operating here to set prices?

[uwisfan]

yeah I doubt the brewers will play it tough, but it wouldnt hurt to use that pick in next year's deep draft.

[HiAndTight]

yeah I doubt the brewers will play it tough, but it wouldnt hurt to use that pick in next year's deep draft.

Yeah, but the Brewers would then likely take a kid who's rated much lower and is a sure sign or they'd certainly be without any bargaining power.

 

So that kinda defeats the purpose.

 

But I really like this kid a lot. Sounds very similar to Odorizzi and Gallardo.

[ILuvDaBush]

Could the Brewers have a Gibson/Jones-type back-up plan? Like if Covey turns down their $1.7M offer, they could offer Gibson $1.2M and Jones $500k, while recouping a mid-1st next year in what is considered to be a deeper draft.

[YoungGeezy]

I try not to read comments on JSOnline because the ignorance is just sooooooo outragious but I did for this one and it actually lead me to sending an email to JSOnline telling them why they need to just disable the comment feature. The kid is 18 and they have just bashed the living hell out him and then they bash guys like Melvin for draft picks when he barely does anything with the draft. The comment feature on JSonline reminds me of Foxnews and how it just makes people more ignorant and unintellegent with every word.....Ahhhhhh okay much better I got that off my chest lol

 

When it comes to Covey there is not one doubt in my mind that he WILL be signed prior to the deadline and I think it will probably happen around the 12th or 13th after a few more players ahead of him sign there overslot deals. His dad is smart, can't fault him for that. They hold all the chips so instead of why are they making a bigger deal about the 300,000 it would be the bigger question as to why it is for the Brewers? Imagine if you (prob are like most of us) a middle class person just won a lottery for $300,000, that is a lot and could impact your life greatly. No imagine winning the same if you were a multi millionaire.... you could prob whip you butt with 300k. If they talked to the dad prior to picking him or even on draft day they should have known it would take about 2 million because that is what he has sais the entire time.

 

The problem with spending that extra 300k is that they have abudget they work with and by spending that money there they lose out on 300k that is needed to help sign some of the other top guys like a Wick, Gibson, Bates, Marks. Brewers have signed many players in the past over the slot, I think last year Brooks Hall got 700k to get out of his commitment to S. Carolina that is about 600k over slot for a 4th round pick right there and Kentrail Davis signed for 1.2 million after being drafted over 20 picks later than where Covey was picked. If they wanted Hall that bad wouldn't you'd think they'd want Covey bad enough to want to spend only 300k more than slot? I think so

[Never Outhustled]

The Brewers knew Covey's demands before they selected him, and they havent spent anything on the draft so far, so I'm pretty sure they'll go a little over slot for him.

[logan82]

 

 

Darrell Covey, the father of Brewers’ first-round draft pick Dylan
Covey, expects to receive a signing bonus offer before the end of next
week. The deadline for signing 2010 picks is Aug. 16. After that, teams
lose the rights to their picks.

To control costs, the commissioner’s office recommends signing bonuses for each slot, which for Covey, the 14^th
pick, is approximately $1.7 million. The Coveys have told the Brewers
all along they want $2 million for the prep right-hander out of
Pasadena, Calif.

Darrell Covey says that stance hasn’t changed.

“They know they’re going to have to pay Dylan over slot,” said
Darrell Covey. “They keep saying they’re going to sign him. We’re just
waiting it out. They haven’t really made a concrete offer yet but they
know what we want.”

Covey believes MLB has advised teams planning to pay over slot to
wait until the final days before the deadline so signings aren’t used to
drive up the prices of unsigned players.

“That makes sense, I guess,” he said. “We’ve been talking but they
haven’t made an official offer yet. I would say the next couple of days
that’s going to happen.”

 

My guess is that Covey will probably be signed around Wednesday this week. It doesn't sound like they have made much of an attempt to even negotiate at this point. All indications are that the commissioner's office wants teams to wait to signing guys for over slot value until close to the deadline. This has been true of past drafts as well I believe.

[lithium75]

Reports before the draft said that Covey had a tired arm from throwing too many pitches. Honestly, why would they want to sign him any sooner? He wasn't going to play anyway, and the time off gave his arm some needed rest.