Draft Pick Discussion, Rounds 1-5; Latest -- Dylan Covey doing well at U of San Diego

[battlekow]

Hunter Morris's college splits

[PrinceEatMeat]

Loving this pick. Need someone to replace Prince.

[TheCrew07]

BK darn you I was just posting that.

 

I really like his line outside of the strike outs. Real nice power potential.

[TheCrew07]

Well after reading Colby's scouting report, he profiles exactly like Suppan in his prime.

[battlekow]

Baseball America's John Manuel: "had forgotten that Auburn 1B Hunter Morris was falling; taken behind teammate Trent Mummey, but good value for MIL for SEC POY"

 

College Splits: "Really nice pick for mid-4th."

 

FanGraphs' Bryan Smith notes that Morris was the highest-drafted high school pick from the 2007 not to sign.

[battlekow]

Baseball America's scouting report on Nelson (ranked #107 overall):

Nelson emerged as the Crimson Tide's top prospect, surpassing middle

infielders Josh Rutledge and preseason All-American Ross Wilson. He has

the size (6-foot-6, 250 pounds) and hard, heavy fastball to profile as a

middle-of-the-rotation starter. Nelson has had an inconsistent career

as he's honed his mechanics, and an inconsistent junior season, peaking

with strong starts against Kentucky early in the season and with a

complete-game gem against Mississippi in mid-May. The latter start was

key, as many scouts weren't sure he wanted the ball in big-game

situations. Nelson can run his fastball up to 95-96 mph at times, and he

has learned to rely more on movement and less on velocity. When his

fastball is in the 88-93 range, it has natural, hard sink. He

complements it with an 80-84 mph power breaking ball that scouts call a

slider, as at times it has some depth. At his best, both pitches grade

out as above-average. His changeup remains below-average but has its

moments, and he tosses in a curve from time to time that some scouts

believe suits his arm slot better than the slider. Nelson's arm action

is decent, but he still loses his release point from time to time and

struggles to throw strikes. He has improved his mound demeanor and has

matured so that fielding miscues or a lack of run support don't disrupt

his rhythm as often. He failed in a try as a closer last season, and

some evaluators believe being in a rotation suits him better. Teams that

like him as a starter will be tempted starting in the second round, and

he finished the regular season strong.

Their scouting report on Morris (same link, ranked #65 overall):

Morris spurned the Red Sox as a second-round pick in 2007, making him

the highest unsigned high school draft pick to attend college that year.

He was a first-team Freshman All-American in 2008 but stumbled as a

sophomore, hitting just .282 and striking out 50 times in 50 games.

Morris responded by getting in the best shape of his life, and this time

the cliche was actually true: He lost 30 pounds and stunned scouts when

he posted a 6.75-second 60-yard time on scout day in the fall. His

leaner 6-foot-2, 220-pound body has allowed Morris to improve his bat

speed, as he can hit velocity better than he used to, and has made his

actions and swing looser. While he's still a below-average defender

(though with a solid arm), he's no longer a total liability at first

base, and he's a solid-average runner under way. Morris doesn't have

explosive power and may have more pure hitting ability than raw juice,

with both grading out as average or a tick above. He's likely to go out

in the same range as he did out of high school.

[battlekow]

Baseball America on Thornburg (ranked #190 overall):

Scouts and opposing coaches inevitably invoke Tim Lincecum when

discussing Thornburg, which certainly is a compliment. It started last

summer, when Thornburg closed for Brewster in the Cape Cod League. He

struck out 18 in 17 innings and racked up eight saves, using a delivery

similar to Lincecum's, and his size (5-foot-11, 190 pounds) is in the

same ballpark, though he's thicker. That helped Thornburg hold up

through the grind of being Charleston Southern's top pitcher as well as a

middle-of-the-order hitter who often plays right field when he doesn't

pitch. He made an early statement with a complete-game, 158-pitch

victory against Florida, which won the Southeastern Conference

regular-season crown. He also mixed in a loss at Presbyterian, the Big

South's ninth-place team. A rough season with the bat and the impending

draft prompted the Buccaneers to keep Thornburg's focus on the mound in

the season's final month, and he ranked third in the Big South in

strikeouts while leading the league with a .213 opponent average. He has

top-five-rounds stuff with a low-90s fastball that has topped out at 95

mph. His fastball lacks life and can be pretty flat, which makes his

power curveball his best pitch. Thornburg is still looking for a

consistent third pitch to round out his repertoire. He's likely more of a

middle reliever, a quick-armed set-up man in the Scot Shields mold who

should be off the board by end of the fifth round.

[battlekow]

Matt Miller's college splits

 

Baseball America:

 

While Oaks exceeded expectations at Michigan, Matt Miller went in the other direction. He's 6-foot-6,

217 pounds and has a 92-94 mph fastball, but he went just 3-3, 5.12 and

fell out of the rotation. Miller has a long arm action that makes it

easy to see his fastball, which also gets straight at times. His slider

is inconsistent and he doesn't command it well. Still, his size and arm

strength could get him drafted in the first 10 rounds.

[And That]

Baseball America on Thornburg (ranked #190 overall):

Thornburg... made an early statement with a complete-game, 158-pitch

victory against Florida

Yikes. The Brewers might well take it easy with him after he signs.

[TooLiveBrew]

I really like the Morris pick. Really kinda seems like the Brewers got good value there. Is there any glaring reason why he didn't go higher? 4th round for a guy that went 2d round out of H.S., and it doesn't sound like his bat has disappointed or anything at Auburn.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

uh-oh . . .dont like the looks of this from Matt Miller's bio . . .

 

"Favorites: food - boneless Buffalo wings"

 

EDIT: HEY!! I WANT A LEMUR TAB TOO!!!!

 

Stop Hogging all the fun you PBR swillin' nerd!

[uwisfan]

I'm really not crazy about picking these average college arms. Very little upside and it seems like a lie that these guys can be fast-tracked to the bigs at the Brewers history of picking or developing college arms

[YoungGeezy]

uh-oh . . .dont like the looks of this from Matt Miller's bio . . .

 

"Favorites: food - boneless Buffalo wings"

 

EDIT: HEY!! I WANT A LEMUR TAB TOO!!!!

 

Stop Hogging all the fun you PBR swillin' nerd!

lol nothing wrong with that, he has incredible taste in food...I could live off boneless Buffalo Wings and often do ha...I'm more worried about how bad he did while he was at Michigan .... hope he turns it around

 

 

[EdgarDiazRocks]

lol nothing wrong with that, he has incredible taste in food...I could live off boneless Buffalo Wings and often do ha...I'm more worried about how bad he did while he was at Michigan .... hope he turns it around

 

Not a lot to do in Helena . . . . except eat.

 

http://www.saidaonline.com/en/newsgfx/fat%20kid-saidaonline.jpg

[battlekow]

Fourth-round picks Trent Mummey, Hunter Morris ready to embark on pro careers

Evan Woodbery/The Auburn Beat

 

Auburn first baseman Hunter Morris was growing increasingly

worried Tuesday on the second day of the MLB amateur draft.

The

first three rounds were in the books, and Morris' name had yet to be

called.

"I was on the phone with my dad, kind

of thinking, 'What's going on?' Morris said.

A

few seconds later, his dad interrupted to congratulate him. Morris was

selected in the fourth round by the Milwaukee Brewers with the 129th

overall pick. Teammate Trent Mummey was picked by the Baltimore

Orioles just minutes earlier with the 118th selection.

"I'm

in a good situation," Morris said. "It's a good organization."

Morris

said he's had frequent contact with the Brewers going back to his high

school years, so he was not surprised by the pick.

The

Brewers Double-A affiliate in the Southern League is in Huntsville,

Morris' hometown.

"I would like to everything I

can to not spend too much time in Huntsville," Morris said. "I'd like

to get to Milwaukee as soon as I can."

[WisconsinSportsRule]

I hope this Miller kid doesn't turn into a Fredrickson type pick. Big arm, no command.

[YoungGeezy]

Well I guess you can't be two disappointed with 2 of our top 3 pitchers are being compared most to Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum.... I could deal with that outcome http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[RedFlash2]

I really like the Jimmy Nelson pick forn you guys. As a Crimson Tide fan, there are only four pitchers on our roster that was worth a darn: Nelson, Morgan, Smith and Kilcrease. Nelson comparasion to Suppan, I thought was stupid. Nelson doesn't have the stuff ike most high upside guys, but Suppan has neither the stuff or the competitiveness that Nelson has. The young man competes hard, and he is a bulldog, much like like Tommy Hunter of the Rangers, who is also an alum of Alabama. Congrats on Nelson.

[battlekow]

Mismatched pitching duo leads Alabama

Associated Press

 

MONTGOMERY, Ala. (AP) - Jimmy Nelson is the intimidating hurler once

dubbed 'Sasquatch' by teammates. Then there's Nathan "Peanut''

Kilcrease, a foot shorter and the other half of Alabama's formidable

pitching duo.

Crimson Tide coach Mitch Gaspard calls the two "1 and 1A'' in his

starting rotation.

Nelson and Kilcrease have helped propel Alabama through a late-season

surge that led the team to an improbable run in the Southeastern

Conference tournament and into an NCAA regional.

The 6-foot-6, 245-pound Nelson tossed three straight complete games

during the Tide's eight-game winning streak that ended with an

extra-inning loss to LSU in the tournament championship game. He

compiled a 1.67 ERA with 25 srikeouts and just four walks in that span.

Nelson also pitched two scoreless innings of relief in the SEC title

game.

The 5-foot-6, 160-pound Kilcrease was 2-0 during the win streak. He

started three games and posted a 2.39 ERA in 26 1/3 innings.

"It's fun. Once you kind of get into a groove, until you do something

to alter that, it can go as long as you want it to,'' Kilcrease said.

"Me and Jimmy, all of our pitches are there from the very start. Our

location has been spot-up every start the last three weeks.

"The team is energized behind us. They're making big plays behind us.

They're getting big hits.''

Different as they appear, Nelson and Kilcrease share two important

bonds: Friendship and competitiveness, in everything from the "Call of

Duty'' video game to their pitching lines.

"Since the very first game, we compare stats after every game:

Opposing team batting average, ERA, strikeout/walk ratio,'' Kilcrease

said. "It gives us the edge against other teams. When you compete

against somebody on your team, it makes you better going against other

teams.''

As for the video game: "He's played it longer,'' Kilcrease said, "so

he's a lot better.''

They've become almost a tag-team lately, a 1-2 punch that has taken

turns taking over games. Their teammates even had to come up with

matching nicknames.

"They call him a Mound Cat,'' Kilcrease said, "and me a Mound

Kitten.''

Kilcrease (6-2, 2.47) has only made four starts in 31 appearances,

but has earned a spot in the rotation. He thrives with accuracy over

power; he has walked just two batters in his last three starts.

Kilcrease throws a four-seam fastball, slider and changeup consistently

for strikes.

"He's a little bulldog out there, and everybody believes we can win

behind him,'' Nelson said. "He just goes out there and is pretty

relentless, just fills up the strike zone. That's why he's successful.

He gets ahead of hitters and doesn't mess up very often.

"No matter how big or small you are, if you've got a three-pitch mix

can throw for strikes you're going to be successful.''

His size is evident in both his approach and his nickname.

"We call him Peanut so much we forget his first name,'' Nelson said.

Kilcrease draws motivation from skeptics who didn't think he could be

a college pitcher because of his stature.

"I guess I have the will to win, not just the want to win,'' he said.

"After hearing so long I'd never make it to the next level - 'You're

short, you're not going to make it.' I just draw from that.''

Nelson (8-2, 3.69) was just 5-6 in two seasons entering his junior

year, but then led the Florida Summer Collegiate League last summer in

innings pitched and strikeouts. He said the turnaround has been more

about his head than his arm.

"The first two years I always had good stuff, but I didn't have the

maturity here or the confidence,'' Nelson said. "But I really wanted to

win for this team. I hate losing. I hate that more than anything I do. I

didn't want to see or feel the feeling I had after I lost my freshman

and sophomore year.

"They kept throwing me out there, that's a credit to them. They never

gave up on me.''

[battlekow]

Nelson keeps focus on College World Series

Jordan Schelling/MLB.com

MILWAUKEE — Aside from waking up to calls from a handful of Major

League ballclubs, Tuesday was a relatively normal day for Jimmy Nelson.

The junior right-hander from the University of Alabama began his day

with some typical medical treatment, followed by weight lifting with his

Crimson Tide teammates.

Even when he was selected by the Milwaukee Brewers in the second

round with the 64th pick of the 2010 First-Year Player Draft, Nelson’s

day didn’t change too much.

“I got a lot of calls and text from people who wanted to congratulate

me, but it was really a pretty normal day,” Nelson said. “But it feels

great to be drafted. It’s almost unbelieveable really. It’s an honor to

be picked by such a great organization.”

Nelson’s day remained as normal as possible by design. That’s because

the junior is keeping his focus on his team’s upcoming super regional

series at Clemson, which is scheduled to begin on Saturday.

As the team’s hottest pitcher, Nelson still expects to pitch this

weekend after being drafted.

“I absolutely want to pitch against Clemson,” Nelson said. “I want to

do whatever I can to help this team get to, and hopefully win, the

College World Series. I think that’s everyone’s goal on this team. But

we’re still just going to take it one game at a time.”

Nelson, at 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds, certainly fits the Brewers’

criteria of a physical, hard-throwing guy.

When they saw him pitch this year, the Brewers were very impressed.

“He’s a big, hard-throwing guy,” said Bruce Seid, director of

scouting for the Brewers. “I saw him pitch twice this year. He shut

[Arkansas] down for five innings. At that time I said ‘Wow, this guy’s

pretty good.’

“Then we saw him at the SEC [tournament] against Auburn and he just

shut them out. He went nine innings, was throwing in the 90s in the

ninth. He pitched with confidence, threw strikes. He’s a big kid, arm

works, good delivery. So we thought this was a great choice.”

The Florida native throws a fastball that can reach 94 mph and has a

nice slider — a tilted, hard, late-breaking pitch — to go along with it.

Nelson also has an average changeup, which has been suggested to need

some work in order for him to be a starter in the big leagues.

Whether he develops the changeup or not, Nelson sees himself with the

potential to be a valuable starter at the next level.

“I think I can bring a lot of consistency and be a reliable starter

in the big leagues,” Nelson said. “I can throw a lot of innings and I

think I can compete with anybody at any level. That’s what I love to do.

I love to compete on the baseball diamond.”

[battlekow]

Morris, Brewers surprised by fall to 4th round

Jordan Schelling/MLB.com

MILWAUKEE — Hunter Morris didn’t expect to still be on the board in

the fourth round. The Brewers, who selected Morris with their

fourth-round pick, didn’t either.

With his name not being called through the first three rounds, Morris

began to worry a bit.

“I was on the phone with my dad,” Morris said, “and we were kind of

sitting there with raised eyebrows, saying, ‘What’s going on?’”

Morris, who said he was driving to his apartment at the time, got his

answer shortly thereafter. As they were talking, his dad interrupted to

congratulate him. After the wait, Morris was thrilled with the news and

relieved for the process to be over with.

With the 129th overall pick, just 11 slots after teammate Trent

Mummey was taken by the Baltimore Orioles, the Milwaukee Brewers took

Morris, a first baseman from Auburn.

“He was too hard to pass up,” said Bruce Seid, scouting director. “We

liked him a lot out of high school. We’ve known him a long time. … He

fits the profile of what a first baseman should look like.”

Morris, who was previously drafted by the Red Sox in 2007, has an

above-average bat all around with impressive raw power as a left-handed

hitter. On the basepaths, he’s said to have better-than-expected speed.

Defensively, Morris has improved at first base and is considered

athletic enough, with a good enough arm as well, to play a corner

outfield spot.

Physically, he’s drawn comparisons to Brad Hawpe of the Colorado

Rockies. And while he was a little overweight early in his college

career, he has lost some weight recently and changed his body

significantly.

Morris’ hometown, Huntsville, Ala., also happens to be the home of

the Brewers’ Double-A affiliate in the Southern League, the Huntsville

Stars.

But after waiting longer than expected to hear his name called

Tuesday, the Huntsville native didn’t have his sights set on his

hometown Minor League club.

“I would like to everything I can to not spend too much time in

Huntsville. I’d like to get to Milwaukee as fast as possible,” Morris

said. “I think I can bring a lot to that part of the organization.

“There are a lot of people in Huntsville that have followed me and my

baseball career. Hopefully, I’ll get to play in front of those fans

here in the next year or so.”

[battlekow]

Jim Callis, from the 5/17 Ask BA:

This draft seems to be loaded at the top with high school pitchers, such as Jameson Taillon, Karsten Whitson, Dylan Covey and A.J. Cole. How would you compare them to last year's group of Tyler Matzek, Jacob Turner, Matt Purke and Shelby Miller? Which group has the most potential, and how would you rank them if you combined them all?

Mike Bryan
Bethesda, Md.

 

Before we get started, let's add two players to each group. Zack

Wheeler was considered the equal of the other 2009 draftees you mention

(and got picked ahead of all of them), and Chad James wasn't far behind.

This spring, Stetson Allie has come on to rank right behind Taillon in

the pecking order of high school arms, and Kaleb Cowart is in that mix

as well.

 

Overall, the 2009 crop was superior to the 2010 group. Collectively,

last year's top high school pitchers had better stuff and performed more

consistently than the best prep arms from this spring.

 

I still have trouble trying to decide on Matzek vs. Taillon. I

tackled that question in the

March 29 Ask BA, and I'd still give Matzek the tiny edge I gave him

then, but there's no right answer there. Based on their prospect status

at the time of their draft, I'd rank the 12 pitchers in this order:

Matzek, Taillon, Turner, Purke, Allie, Wheeler, Covey, Cowart, Miller,

James, Whitson, Cole.

 

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Baseball Beginnings: "Brewers fans, Covey is 92-94, the big CB is 84 at best. Reminds some of Schilling or Clemens. He won't be cheap. Not a slot guy...Covey's arm action is loose and powerful. You guys will love him when you see him go good...Difference between Covey and Taillon or Allie is looseness. I think he has the most limber arm of the three...I think Covey's CB has a chance to be the best at his position, RHP, in MLB. That is an 80 curveball."

...

 

Covey features one of the most polished arsenals at the high school level in this draft, and he should be an early draft pick. Featuring a low- to mid-90s fastball, he also has some of the best fastball command around. He generally works in the 92-94 range, and he’s touched as high as 97, but he works better in that range, where he can get more movement and better command. It’s a plus pitch by any standard, and that’s just the start. His breaking ball, a true power curveball, is also a plus pitch. It has been at its best in the low-80s, generally between 80 and 82, but it was reached 85 to become a powerful secondary weapon with his plus fastball.Unlike a lot of top prep pitchers, he does have extensive experience with a changeup, and it could be an average pitch with some work. It’s generally a low- to mid-80s offering, usually 82-84, and it provides a solid 10 mph difference from his fastball. It’s just a show-me pitch at this point, but that’s all it needs to be if he keeps commanding a pair of plus pitches.

 

I got to wondering tonight about what the buzz around Gallardo was back in the '04 Draft. Here are some scouting reports cited in the BF.net draft-day thread:

 

LIVE FB, MOST PLUS VELOCITY BORING INTO RHH, SINK WHEN DOWN, OCCAISIONAL CUT ACTION. TIGHT ROTATION, DOWN 3/4, SNAPPING CB. ALSO THROWS STRAIGHT CHANGE. REPEATS DELIVERY WELL. CLEAN, BALANCED DELIVERY. LOOSE, VERY QUICK ARM W/ GOOD EXTENTION. AGGRESSIVE, COMPETITOR. MAINTAINS VELOCITY

...

 

Gallardo's fastball is consistently clocked between 91 and 94 mph and has reached as high as 96.

 

Scouts consider Gallardo's curveball above average. His changeup, while a work in progress, is good enough to make hitters thinking fastball look foolish.

 

Gallardo, who has 117 strikeouts in 50 innings this season, impresses scouts with his smooth delivery. Scouts said his effortless motion reduces the likelihood of the arm trouble that makes high school pitchers the biggest draft risks.

There have been several notes about Covey's ability to maintain his velocity late in games. Both guys are/were praised for clean, loose arm action. Both are/were profiled as having good curveballs with developing changeups. Velocity ranges are almost identical. Honestly, if I had to highlight a main difference between the two pitchers on their respective draft days, it'd be that Covey has a (widely-accepted) better curveball. The more I think this pick over, the more I like it.

[battlekow]

Former Niceville star Nelson drafted in 2nd round by Brewers

Adam Pruiett/Crestview News Bulletin

As fellow members of the University of Alabama pitching staff jumped

around him in jubilation, Jimmy Nelson sat still in the training room.

The former Niceville star had just been chosen in the second round of

the Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft on Tuesday by the

Milwaukee Brewers, but his initial reaction was to check the facts

instead of burst into celebration.

“They freaked out more than I did,” he said of his Crimson Tide

teammates. “I just wanted to make sure it was the right James Nelson.”

Indeed it was. The Alabama junior right-hander was taken 64th overall

by the Brewers, right about where Nelson figured he’d go after

pre-draft discussions with his advisor, Gavin Wright.

Nelson said he was contacted by five or six teams Tuesday morning.

The 6-foot-6, 240-pound hurler said the Brewers told him that they would

select him if he was still available by their pick midway through the

second round.

Nelson has the option of returning to Alabama for his senior season

but indicated that he would likely turn pro. He has until Aug. 16 to

sign with Milwaukee and said he was “very satisfied” with where he was

picked.

“I don’t think it’s going to be that hard of a decision,” said

Nelson, who was taken in the 39th round of the 2007 draft by the

Cincinnati Reds before choosing to attend Alabama.

Before the draft, the Brewers, Nelson and his representatives agreed

on a ballpark figure for a signing bonus. But right now, Nelson isn’t

thinking about that, noting his focus is on Clemson, Alabama’s opponent

in the super regionals. He doesn’t intend to start weighing his options

until the Tide’s season is over.

Nelson is currently 8-3 with a 3.92 ERA and 94 strikeouts against 28

walks in 103.1 innings pitched. He’s thrown three complete games and

opponents are hitting .256 against him.

While Nelson wasn’t surprised by where he was chosen in the draft,

the team caught him a little off guard.

“There were some teams I actually thought liked me more than (the

Brewers),” he said. “The draft is crazy like that.”

“I am glad it’s over,” Nelson added. “It’s something I’ve worked

extremely hard for and something others (family, former coaches and

current coaches) have worked extremely hard for.”

http://images.onset.freedom.com/wemcvarsity/l3pnbz-l3pnbgjimmynelsonwebactionpic2.jpg

(AP Photo/John Amis)

[battlekow]

Four Alabama players taken in MLB draft

Aaron Suttles/TideSports.com

 

Nelson was asleep Monday morning when his phone started ringing.

“It was my wake-up call this

morning. Five or six teams were calling me telling me they wanted me,”

Nelson said. “I hadn't met with or talked to anyone with the Brewers at

all this season. I've heard they're a good organization with a good

minor league situation. It looks good.”

The 6-foot-6 right-hander, who was drafted in the 39th

round coming out of high school, improved his stock with a stellar

junior campaign. The Niceville, Fla., native is 8-3 win a 3.92 ERA in 16

starts this season and has been a key component in the Crimson Tide's

late-season run.

http://www.tidesports.com/apps/pbcsi.dll/bilde?Site=TL&Date=20100609&Category=NEWS&ArtNo=100609594&Ref=AR&Profile=1011&MaxW=600&border=0

(Jason Braverman)